Commentary By Stephen Macaulay
“And as you know, we’re in for, probably, $350 billion and Europe is in for $100 billion. And that’s a big difference. So, we’re in for, probably, three times as much. And yet, it’s very important to everybody, but Europe is very close. We have a big ocean separating us. So, it’s very important for Europe. And they, hopefully, will step up and do maybe more than they’re doing and maybe a lot more.” — Donald Trump, February 26, 2025, prior to the first meeting of his Cabinet
Let’s break this down.
“As you know, we’re in for, probably, $350 billion and Europe is in for $100 billion.”
Although we are supposed to know (“As you know”), Trump is admitting that he doesn’t know (“probably”).
Isn’t this a bit concerning that the President of the United States, speaking to his freshly minted Cabinet, doesn’t know whether or not the United States is “in for” $350 billion?
“In for”? Sounds like a term that would be heard at a gambling table at a casino, not a Cabinet meeting.
Here’s something about Trump that doesn’t get the attention it deserves.
While it is not a truism but true that in the gaming industry “the house always wins,” seems that Trump is the exception that proves the rule.
He owned three casinos in Atlantic City.
- Trump Taj Mahal filed for bankruptcy in 1991
- Trump Plaza filed in 1992
- Trump Hotels & Casino in 2004
Perhaps, as you know, he thought he had $350 billion in the bank.
But there is that number, $350 billion.
You would think there would be someone on his staff who would tell him the actual number so that he wouldn’t have to have a number that may or may not be true.
I had Google tell me that if I went to a page on the US Department of State website I would find a "fact sheet" titled “U.S. Security Cooperation with Ukraine.”
And there I would find this passage:
“To date, we have provided $65.9 billion in military assistance since Russia launched its premeditated, unprovoked, and brutal full-scale invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022, and approximately $69.2 billion in military assistance since Russia’s initial invasion of Ukraine in 2014. We have now used the emergency Presidential Drawdown Authority on 55 occasions since August 2021 to provide Ukraine military assistance totaling approximately $27.688 billion from DoD stockpiles.”
Even though that goes back to 2014, adding up all those numbers comes nowhere close to $350 billion: Rather, it is $162.788 billion — less than half of $350 billion. And again, this is accounting for aide prior to 2022, so if we were looking at the provisions after that date, it would be less.
(And Cabinet member Marco Rubio might want to edit that “premediated, unprovoked, and brutal full-scale invasion” before his boss finds out.)
While Trump says the difference between $350 billion and $100 billion (another number that seems to have come from nowhere), is “a big difference,” so is the difference between $350 billion and his own State Department’s $162.788 billion.
And this is the Administration that has empowered Elon Musk to cut costs?
As for the $100 billion from Europe, according to the Kiel Institute for the World Economy:
“Europe has allocated EUR 70 billion in financial and humanitarian aid as well as EUR 62 billion in military aid. This compares to EUR 64 billion in military aid from the US as well as EUR 50 billion in financial and humanitarian allocations.”
While some might sniff at those figures because Kiel is based in Germany, the organization is critical of European support. As in pointing out:
“Even small domestic policy priorities are many times more expensive than what is being done for Ukraine. For example, Germany’s tax subsidies for diesel fuel (‘diesel privilege’) cost taxpayers three times more per year than Germany’s military aid for Ukraine.”
Clearly, Kiel isn’t all that happy with diesel subsidies.
Still, the numbers that organization calculates is probably more accurate than Trump’s ballparking, which goes to:
“So, we’re in for, probably, three times as much.”
Again, the “probably.”
But how has it gone from $350 billion to $300 billion in three sentences?
Let’s put his math skills aside and move to this:
“… but Europe is very close. We have a big ocean separating us. So, it’s very important for Europe.”
Yes, Europe is very close to Ukraine. Because Ukraine is in Europe.
And then there’s
“We have a big ocean separating us.”
This beggars belief. Does he think that if the US was to be attacked from Europe the troops would come over on a cruise ship traveling 20 knots, thereby allowing our troops to set up countermeasures?
An ICBM travels at about 15,000 mph. The distance between Washington D.C. and Continental Europe is about 4,400 miles. And the distance between a nuclear-powered attack submarine in the Atlantic is even closer.
That “big ocean” isn’t so big.
Probably.