[US Bureau of Economic Analysts]
MAY DAY 2025
UPDATE: Sec. of State Marco Rubio replaces Mike Waltz as White House national security advisor as Waltz has been named President Trump’s choice for United Nations ambassador, BBC radio reports.
Trump to Waltz: You’re Fired – Michael Waltz, the national security advisor who had invited The Atlantic’s editor Jeffrey Goldberg to join a Signal group chat to discuss a US military operation in Yemen in March – and not Defense Sec. Pete Hegseth -- has been fired by President Trump, The New York Times reports. Waltz’s sacking has not been confirmed by the White House.
Though Trump defended Waltz as Signalgate developed, Goldberg’s colleague at The Atlantic, David Graham, writes that the national security advisor was “one of the more expert and respected hands” at the administration, as well as an apparent target of 9/11 conspiracist Laura Loomer for insufficient blind loyalty to Trump, and so was not long for the administration anyway.
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Trump Signs Minerals Deal with Ukraine – Some two months after Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s disastrous meeting with Trump & Co. in the Oval Office, the US has signed its minerals deal with Ukraine, its first deputy prime minister, Yulia Svyrydenko, announced Thursday.
Though the deal still falls short of security assurances for Ukraine, the announcement comes two days after the Trump White House notified Congress that it is preparing to sell “$50 million or more” in “defense articles” to Ukraine, The Kyiv Independent reports. Though the peace proposal the White House has presented to Russia and Ukraine would let Russia hold on to Crimea while prohibit Ukraine from joining NATO, these moves are seen as a sort of pivot to support for Kyiv over the Kremlin.
“This agreement signals clearly to Russia that the Trump administration is committed to a peace process centered on a free, sovereign, and prosperous Ukraine on the long term,” Treasury Sec. Scott Bessent said in a press release.
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Wall Street Rebound – After dropping nearly 600 points when the Commerce Department reported a shrinking economy in the first quarter, Wall Street rebounded a bit, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average gaining 141.74 points, or +0.35% to 40,669.36 by Wednesday’s close. The tech-heavy NASDAQ was off 0.09%.
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Pro-Palestinian Protestor Released – A Vermont federal judge has released Columbia University student Mohsen Mahdawi from a two-week detention, saying that holding the lawful permanent resident detained for pro-Palestinian protests without due process demonstrates “great harm,” NPR’s Morning Edition reports.
“I am saying it clear and loud to President Trump and his cabinet,” Mahdawi told reporters upon his release. “I am not afraid of you.”
--TL
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Uh Oh
WEDNESDAY 4/30/25
GDP Falls 0.3% in Q1 – Despite a good deal of consumer spending in the first quarter as a last chance to buy big ticket items ahead of President Trump’s tax on imports, Real Gross Domestic Product fell by 0.3% in the first quarter of 2025, the Commerce Department reports Wednesday morning. This follows a 2.4% gain in the fourth quarter of 2024.
Imports did surge in the quarter as the Trump tariffs kicked in, but the GDP decline was far worse than the 0.4% growth (something in the +2%-range is considered “normal”) that The Wall Street Journal’s survey of economists had predicted.
Expect panic on Wall Street.
Concern, if not panic … After an initial drop of nearly 700 points after markets opened Wednesday morning, the Dow Jones Industrial Average then recovered a bit to -374 points, or an 0.9% drop by 11 am ET. The tech-heavy NASDAQ was off 1.65%.
Believe THE CAPS … “Our Country will boom, but we have to get rid of the Biden ‘Overhang.’ This will take a while, has NOTHING TO DO WITH TARIFFS, only that he left us with bad numbers, but when the boom begins, it will be like no other. Be PATIENT!!!”
Not your eyes … GDP was up 2.8% for the year in 2024, and most economists believed the US had avoided a post-pandemic recession.
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On Day 101 – The White House has summoned automakers, including Toyota and Hyundai, to Washington for US investment talks, Automotive News reports. The idea, apparently, is to convince automakers (which already have too much capacity in North America overall) to maybe build more plants here.
This follows President Trump’s Day-100 rally with Democratic Gov. Gretchen Whitmer at Macomb Community College in Michigan. A majority of United Auto Workers members there voted for Trump last November, and support his tariff policy, even if their employers do not.
No guidance … The Amsterdam-based owner of Chrysler, Jeep, Dodge and Ram, Stellantis, announced it was suspending guidance for sales and revenue expectations in 2025 due to tariff uncertainty, APM’s Marketplace reports.
After General Motors Tuesday reported a 6.6% drop in profits for the first quarter, it delayed its traditional call-in with Wall Street analysts by a couple of days, to Thursday, in order to give it time to assess the effect of Trump’s latest tariff policy on its outlook for the year. The White House has removed tariffs on imported parts and materials that would compound on the 25% tariff imposed on the fully assembled imports.
Amazon grace? … Meanwhile, Amazon has backed off a plan to post the added cost of tariffs on products to consumers after White House Press Sec. Karoline Leavitt called breaking out import charges “a hostile and political act.” According to The Wall Street Journal, Amazon had considered displaying the cost of tariffs on its “ultracheap” shopping website, Haul, but the idea “was never approved and is not going to happen.”
--TL
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100 Days of Trump 47
TUESDAY 4/29/25
Worst First 100 – President Trump has scored the worst first 100-day job approval ratings in 80 years, with a 39% approval rating to 55% disapproval, ABC News’ FiveThirtyEight reports.
Meanwhile, an NPR/PBS News/Marist poll shows 45% “F” grade to a 23% “A” grade, NPR’s Morning Edition reports Tuesday. The Marist poll shows 17% giving Trump a “B,” 8% a “C” and 7% a “D.”
Celebrating in Macomb … Meanwhile, President Trump was set to celebrate the first 100 days of his second term at Macomb Community College, where members of the United Auto Workers approve of his tariff policy, including the 25% tariff on cars and trucks from Mexico and Canada. On Monday, the Trump administration signaled it would ease up on its auto tariffs, The Wall Street Journal reports. The tariffs will not “double up” on imports by also taxing the imported parts and materials, such as Canadian steel and aluminum, that go into the assembled vehicle no matter where it comes from.
Upon this news, General Motors delayed by two days its first-quarter earnings report with Wall Street analysts because it cannot offer earnings guidance for the rest of the year due to the ever-changing tariff policy.
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No Canada for Trump – President Trump’s marks north of the border are not so good, where former central banker Mark Carney led his Liberals to a minority-government victory Monday over Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives, The Globe and Mail reports. Largely seen as a Canadian rebuke of President Trump’s tariff policies and comments about annexation, Carney and the Liberals were able to erase a 27-point poll lead, and more, of Poilievre and the Conservatives and their “make Canada great again” vibe.
It’s the Liberals’ fourth mandate since 2015, though Carney must form a coalition government.
--Compiled and edited by Todd Lassa