Commentary by Stephen Macaulay

First, some background from the Office of the United States Trade Representative’s website, which will probably be taken down once someone sees the presentation of facts.

This is a bit long, but stick with it for the sake of context to what we’ll get to:

“Canada has consistently been one of the top two trading partners for the United States. The two countries share a long history of supply chain integration, including especially in the automotive and textile industries and the energy sector. Most recently, in 2024, Canada was the top destination for US exports and the third-largest source of US imports. Canada exported over three-quarters of its goods to the United States and imported almost half of its goods from the United States.

“The United States’ leading exports to Canada are vehicles, machinery, and energy products, together with over $30 billion in agricultural products, including bakery goods, cereals and pasta, fresh vegetables and fruit, and ethanol. Canada’s leading exports to the United States are energy products and vehicles, together with over $40 billion in agricultural products, including baked goods, cereals and pasta, vegetable oils, beef and beef products, processed fruit and vegetables, and fresh vegetables.”

Canada Trade Summary

“US total goods trade with Canada was an estimated $762.1 billion in 2024. US goods exports to Canada in 2024 were $349.4 billion, down 1.4 percent ($5.0 billion) from 2023. US goods imports from Canada in 2024 totaled $412.7 billion, down 1.4 percent ($5.9 billion) from 2023. The US goods trade deficit with Canada was $63.3 billion in 2024, a 1.4 percent decrease ($926.9 million) over 2023.”

Let’s highlight a few of those observations:

• “a long history of supply chain integration”
• “top destination for US exports”
• “imported almost half its goods from the United States”
• “US goods trade deficit with Canada . . . in 2024, a 1.4 percent decrease ($926.9 million) over 2023”

And this is a country that the Trump Administration has essentially gone to economic war with.

What did Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick say about Canada on CBS News’ Face the Nation on July 20 to host Margaret Brennan?

“Canada is not open to us.”

Huh? Seems to be quite a disconnect between the Office of the United States Trade Representative and Lutnick.

Prior to making that clearly absurd remark Lutnick said:

“The President said look, unless you stop this fentanyl and close the border, we're just going to keep tariffs on the other 25% and that's what he has on.”

The 25% in question are the goods not covered under the US-Mexico-Canada Agreement that Donald Trump negotiated during his first term. It was full MAGA when the previous agreement, NAFTA, was eliminated. 

And perhaps as an indication of the economic inconsistency being exhibited by the Trump Administration:

Lutnick: “Oh, I think the President is absolutely going to renegotiate USMCA, but that’s a year from today.”

In other words, the agreement — which Trump described as “historic, groundbreaking” when he signed it — exists only until he decides it doesn’t. 

Now the whole fentanyl thing is a dodge. From 2022 to 2024 US Customs and Border Protection seized 59 pounds on the Canadian border.

What doesn’t get any attention is the fact that in 2023 to 2024, Canadian border authorities seized 43 pounds of fentanyl being smuggled out of the US.

Statistically that means that if in 2023 and 2024 each year had 21.5 pounds being smuggled out of the US into Canada and we add a year to make it even with the number of years the 59 pounds were seized going south, then there would be 64.5 pounds coming out of the US.

And Canada is the problem?

The whole illegal immigrant issue with Canada is absurd given how small the numbers are. If we take into account that the border between the two countries (5,525 miles) is the longest border in the world and the fact that, yes, illegal immigrants actually come out of the US to Canada, the administration should be ashamed of even talking about Canada in that context.

Let’s wind back to the opening of the interview on Face the Nation:

MARGARET BRENNAN: Well, you heard in our polling some of the perceptions of the economy; 61% of Americans believe the administration is putting too much focus on tariffs, 70% say the administration is not doing enough to lower prices, and 60% oppose new tariffs on imported goods. This is a centerpiece to your policy plan. How do you reverse public opposition?

SEC. LUTNICK: They're going to love the deals that President Trump and I are doing. I mean, they're just going to love them. You know, the president figured out the right answer, and sent letters to these countries, said this is going to fix the trade deficit. This will go a long way to fixing the trade deficit, and that's gotten these countries to the table and they're going to open their markets or they're going to pay the tariff. And if they open their markets, the opportunity for Americans to export, to grow the business, farmers, ranchers, fishermen, this is going to be -- the next two weeks, are going to be weeks for the record books. President Trump is going to deliver for the American people.

Well, let’s turn to another source, this the Department of Commerce (yes, the department Lutnick heads), to learn about tariffs.

In a GovFacts explainer titled “What Are Tariffs and How Do They Work?” it says:

“The process in the United States is straightforward. When a ship full of foreign goods arrives at an American port, US Customs and Border Protection collects the tariff. The company importing the goods pays the tax, typically within 10 days of the goods clearing customs.”

OK. That’s pretty straightforward (if we ignore the bit about “The company importing the goods pays the tax” because the Trump Administration wants us to think the country exporting the goods pays the tax).

But then there’s the next paragraph:

“The most immediate effect of a tariff is simple: it makes imported products more expensive for Americans to buy. This basic function drives all the complex economic and political consequences that follow.”

That bears repeating in Trump-style font:

“IT MAKES IMPORTED PRODUCTS MORE EXPENSIVE FOR AMERICANS TO BUY.”

What exactly is it that President Trump is going to deliver to the American people?

Somehow they’re probably not going to “love” those higher prices on everything from coffee to cars, from computers to pharmaceuticals.

Secretary Lutnick was followed on Face the Nation by Rep. Jim Himes (D-CT).

Himes said: “So what you just saw was a master class by a huckster and a con man.

Given the facts, he’s probably not wrong.

Macaulay is pundit-at-large for The Hustings.