Commentary by Stephen Macaulay
So the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) has come out with some numbers that aren’t indicative of a Golden Age — unless, of course, a Golden Age is one where very few people need to work and they spend their days eating peeled grapes and imbibing ambrosia.
The government organization has revised its non-farm employment numbers.
Now before several people become apoplectic about the adjustment, know that they are for the year prior to March 2025, so this has mainly to do with “BI-den” (say it with a sneer), a man who, when he wasn’t sleeping, was apparently wreaking havoc left, right and center.
And know well that this is not a consequence of the Trump administration because it had too short a time in office to have had much of an effect.
The BLS now calculates that during that 12-month period there were 911,000 fewer jobs created than had been thought. For those who don’t want to do the math, that’s some 76,000 fewer per month.
It is also worth knowing that these adjustments are commonly performed, not the work of some sort of government cabal that is trying to make people look bad.
One of the conclusions that can be drawn is the economy isn’t doing as well as you might be led to believe, the purported “hotness” of the country notwithstanding.
And if we bring the numbers up to date, the BLS reckoned, June, July and August had average payroll growth of 29,000 for each of those months, which is below the breakeven point for keeping the unemployment even — which explains why it is now at 4.3% (August figure), which is up 0.1% from July, which may seem like nothing, except for the fact it is the highest rates since October 2021 — when you-know-who was probably trying to figure out how to put more ink into the autopen.
Some people (you probably see them on the news regularly or read their pronouncements) will lead you to believe that the tariffs are going to change things for the better, especially as regards manufacturing employment — you know, like all of those auto plants that are allegedly being built.
Well, as it turns out all those plants either (1) existed prior to Liberation Day or (2) are plants that were part of the agreement with the UAW signed in November 2023.
Sure, expansion is expansion. But let’s not get too carried away when it comes to ascribing credit.
In addition to which, one of the biggest investment announcements was made by Hyundai, and you’ve got to believe that the people in Seoul were not particularly happy with last week’s ICE raid of its massive assembly plant in Georgia that resulted in the arrest of more than 300 South Korean nationals who were helping the plant in its start-up-phase. [The plant, co-owned by Hyundai and battery-maker LG Energy Solution had its groundbreaking in May 2022, so credit for it goes with the other guy, even though production didn’t begin until late Q4 2024.] How are they going to feel about making additional investments when they know that the Department of Homeland Security had its eye on the company’s “Metaplant”?
Anyway, back to those manufacturing jobs.
Turns out that 15,000 U.S. manufacturing jobs were lost in June 2025, followed by 12,000 more in July and 6,000 in August.
While the half-glass-full people will look at those figures and say that the trend is in the right direction, does it seem likely that some 33,000 manufacturing jobs will be created anytime soon just to get back to even with the May manufacturing employment rate?
A quick word about “we’re going to bring manufacturing jobs back.” US manufacturing companies put production where it is most cost-effective. This means that things are produced that (1) allows them to make a profit and (2) that are affordable to consumers. Clearly, if they don’t have (2) they won’t have (1).
If they don’t have (1) then they are going to have to raise their prices which means that (2) isn’t what it once was. That is likely to depress demand.
When demand is depressed, then there is reduced need for supply. When there is reduced need for supply, then there is reduced need to manufacture it.
Which conceivably means there is going to be a tougher time anytime for the foreseeable future when those 33,000 job losses are recovered.
As you may recall, in August Erika McEntarfer, at the time the BLS commissioner, was fired by the president because of an adjustment of jobs data, which showed things were significantly weaker than the previous numbers indicated. The president suggested the data were “rigged.”
She’s gone, and so, apparently, were a whole lot of other jobs.
Tariffs may bring some jobs back. Not many. And everyone else is going to be paying a whole lot more for those goods.
And unfortunately, it seems that there are now a whole lot fewer people who are going to be able to afford those increased costs.
Macaulay is pundit-at-large for The Hustings.
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