Commentary by Stephen Macaulay

One of the things we hear Trump Administration figures — from the top down — saying about one aspect of the war against Iran that has plenty of Americans slightly more concerned has to do with gasoline prices.

The claim is that although the prices are high now, they’ll plummet once Trump decides the war is over.

And the question that everyone should ask is: Based on what?

The veracity of the administration on many subjects has been dubious at best, and this is another case where this is likely to be borne out.

That is, let’s look at the last time when there was a major spike in gasoline prices in the US, right after the beginning of Russia’s attack on Ukraine.

That war began on February 24, 2022.

According to the US Energy Information Administration (EIA), the average price of a gallon of gas the week ending February 21, 2022, before the war started, was $3.62.

On February 28 the price was $3.70 a gallon, then it jumped to $4.19 the following week.

The price of a gallon of gas in the US didn’t return to near what it was before the war started until November 28, when it was $3.64.

That’s 40 weeks.

Realize that the reason for the rise in price of gas in 2022 was because of the disruption to the flow of oil from Russia. Russia produces some 10 million barrels of oil per day.

The issue wasn’t infrastructure damage. It was political.

So here we are four years later.

The war began on February 28. 

According to the EIA, on February 23 the average price for a gallon of gas in the U.S. was $3.07.

On March 2, up to $3.14; on March 9, up to $3.63; on March 16, $3.85.

In other words, a rise of 25.4% in a matter of weeks. And there is no end in sight.

With prices for WTI and Brent crude having gone from about $64 and $72 per barrel, respectively, before the war to $89 and $100 today, the bill will come due each and every time Americans fill up their tanks for some time to come.

There is a phrase in the oil industry about the price of gasoline: “It rises like a rocket and it falls like a feather.”

Look at the numbers. Don’t believe the rhetoric. 

After all, it has been 61 weeks since the presidential inauguration, and as you may

recall, President Trump was going to end the war in Ukraine on his first day.

How’s that working out?

Macaulay is pundit-at-large for The Hustings.