Commentary by Stephen Macaulay

One of the things that could be said to characterize the Trump Administration — both the man at the top and his multitude of minions — is that they all have a tendency to make pronouncements that are as accurate as the horseshoes that most people toss in the game of that name. Close, but certainly no cigar.

Or, to put it more fundamentally, say things that just aren’t true in the sense that most people consider veracity.

For example, JD Vance said after arriving in Switzerland for talks with the Iranians that the Strait of Hormuz was open, even though the Iranians said it was closed. Now it may be that the US Navy isn’t keeping the passage shut, which could mean to Vance that it is open, but if the Iranian government says it is closed, do you think that if you were the captain of a giant oil tanker you’d want to risk going through? If you were the owner — or the insurer — of a tanker would you give sailing orders to the captain?

One of the consequences of the war is that the Iranians now know that they have a chokehold on the important passage.

Donald Trump told Fox News on Sunday that he had spoken to Iranian officials and told them, “You close it and you won’t have a country.”

Clearly, deft negotiating tactics, rolling out with the threats of obliteration.

Energy Secretary Chris Wright said on Fox News Sunday, “What we’re demonstrating to the Iranians is we can have [a] flow of traffic through the Strait of Hormuz with or without them.”

Wright said that in the previous 24 hours 67 ships, guarded by US military assets, made it through the strait.

Which could be true.

But there are several things to keep in mind.

Prior to the war, ships didn’t need the US Navy to make it through the Strait.

Presumably there are limited naval resources that can be deployed to escort ships, so this is going to be a slow — and expensive to US taxpayers — undertaking.

What’s more — or actually less — 67 is about half the number of ships that passed through the Strait on average in a given 24-hour period before the war. 

And at present, according to Lloyd’s List, the venerable British journal that collects such information, there are as many as 600 commercial vessels that are stuck inside the Persian Gulf. 

So if it is 67 in 24 hours, that’s about three ships per hour. If there are 500 left in the Gulf, this means it would be seven 24-hour days to get them through. And realize that these are vessels that are stuck there, and before the war there was regular passage in and out, so just getting a handful of ships through isn’t much of an advantage. A start, sure, but not some sort of open passage — especially as the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps dumped mines into the Strait.

Then there’s this from Senator Linsey Graham on CBS News’ Face the Nation Sunday.

While he had been critical when the Memorandum of Understanding was released, Graham since has slid back to his supine position, telling host Margaret Brennan, “I spent four-and-a-half hours with President Trump Friday.” Whoa! He’s quite the guy being able to spend so much time with his liege lord.

As you may or may not know, Graham received his law degree in 1981 and was in the US Air Force Judge Advocate General’s Corps for 33 years (6.5 years in active duty; 6 in the Air National Guard; 20 Air Force Reserve).

Graham also said this on Face the Nation:

“If this deal fails, President Trump is going to take the Strait of Hormuz over by force. The United States will control the Strait of Hormuz. We'll charge a fee for all those who go through to pay for the operation.”

The whole notion of taking over the Strait “by force” aside (presumably this would require troops on the ground), there’s that “We’ll charge a fee for all those who go through.”

As an attorney dealing at levels that those lawyers who run constant TV commercials never experience you’d think Graham would know a little something about the law, and while he was in the Air Force, and not the Navy, you’d think his long legislative career would have made him familiar with maritime law, like the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea, which explicitly states there can be no tolls for passage in international straits like Hormuz.

Oh, but he calls it a “fee.” Perhaps that’s something to make up for the ~$300,000 per day it costs to operate a naval destroyer.

When you think of what it means for the Strait to be “open,” chances are you don’t think of the need for escort ships of any sort.

But Donald Trump doesn’t dance around the finer points of language.

On June 20 he put this on his social media platform:

“There will be NO TOLLS in the Hormuz Strait for 60 days during the Cease Fire Period, and there will be NO TOLLS after the 60 day period has expired, unless they are imposed by and for the United States of America, should the deal not be completed, for services rendered as the Guardian Angel to the countries of the Middle East for purposes of both past, present, and future reimbursement of costs. Thank you for your attention to this matter!!! President DJT”

That’s right, NO TOLLS “unless they are imposed by and for the United States of America. . .for services retendered at the Guardian Angel to the countries of the Middle East for purposes of both past, present and future reimbursement of costs.”

Even NO apparently doesn’t mean NO in Trump World. Until it does, which is when he says it does.

Macaulay is pundit-at-large for The Hustings.