Commentary by Stephen Macaulay

Despite the fact that we haven’t seen high-T Pete Hegseth behind the podium for a while, American flag pocket square secured in his breast pocket, holding forth on the wonders that are the number of munitions dropped in Iran, holding forth on the wonders of the president who allows him to show to the world that there is no question of the hormones coursing through his glands, the war in Iran still continues.

It may not be as “kinetic” as Hegseth would likely prefer, but there has been no conclusion to it, which is evidenced by the fact that although the Strait of Hormuz is said to be “open,” the number of ships making its way through that waterway is down some 90% compared with a year earlier. 

Which explains, in part, why the price of a gallon of regular unleaded is at a national average, according to AAA as of August 30, of $4.07, which is up from the year-ago price of $3.19. That’s a 28% increase.

Now you can be sure that whenever Donald Trump declares “VICTORY!! Plenty of people are saying it!” there will be all manner of rhetoric about gas prices falling back to “Levels like you’ve never seen.”

Even if gas prices do fall, here’s something to keep in mind: The Watson School of International and Public Affairs at Brown University has developed the “Iran War Energy Cost Tracker.”

At the time of this writing the additional amount that US consumers have paid for fuel — gasoline and diesel — is $94.2 billion.

That’s $94.2 billion (and rising) that you won’t get back.

Or let me put this in a Trump-like manner:

THAT’S $94.2 BILLION (AND RISING) THAT YOU WON’T GET BACK.

A word about diesel.

While the number of passenger vehicles using diesel in the US has decreased greatly, diesel is the dominant fuel for many applications, including the semitrucks that ship everything from coast to coast. So transportation costs rise. So those who receive the shipped products pay more. So the consumers of those products (i.e., you and me) pay more, too.

But another application that uses diesel is for farm equipment. The price of a gallon of diesel today is $5.60. It was $3.70 a year ago.

That’s a 51% increase.

Unless you are a farmer, you aren’t seeing it. For now. Because farmers have extremely thin margins, and they are going to have to make up for that by raising their prices.

Farmers are subject to a double-whammy because the Strait of Hormuz, in addition to being the passage for about 20% of global petroleum, is the passage for about 30% of the world’s fertilizer.

A farmer buying anhydrous ammonia pre-war paid some $828 per ton, which is now $943.

Urea? $611 to $644.

Monoammonium phosphate? $800 to $959.

The point is, US agriculture is taking a big hit as the Trump Administration claims the Strait is open.

You’re going to pay more at the grocery store now. You are going to pay more at the grocery store going forward.

Those input cost rises will simply cause that to happen.

Or let’s say you want to get away from it all and take a trip.

The price of jet fuel has doubled since the start of the war in Iran.

On The Hill program on NewsNation August 30, Chris Sununu, president and CEO of Airlines for America, the trade association and lobbying organization for the major US airlines, acknowledged the rise in fuel prices but noted the airlines have only increased the average price of a ticket by 19%.

Sununu said the airlines “are eating” the additional costs.

What does that mean? Simply that they are decreasing their profits. How long is that tolerable for investors? And at what point does this lead to trimming services, whether cutting places they fly to (smaller markets, including those in agricultural areas) or cutting the distribution of tiny bags of pretzels. (While this may seem like a nonsensical concern, realize that you’re paying more and getting less.)

Donald Trump, perhaps trying to divert attention from things like this, had decided to start a trade war with Canada.

Which is remarkably stupid.

Going back to the aforementioned fertilizers used by farmers: More than 80% of the potash used by US farmers comes from Canada. Yes, not a Strait of Hormuz issue, but one that is caused for inexplicable reasons. (Trump likes to claim that other countries, including Canada, “Are ripping us off.” Yet he never provides specifics as to how this is happening.)

Petroleum products? The US imports as much as 4.4 million barrels of oil — some 60% of all crude imports — per day from Canada. This is because even though the US has plenty of reserves, it turns out that many oil refineries — which turn oil into things including gasoline, diesel fuel and jet fuel — are engineered to process the kind of oil that comes from Canada, not the light crude that comes out of the ground in places like Texas. If you can’t refine it, you can’t use it.

In 2025 the US imported over $40 billion worth of agricultural products, from grains and seeds to beef to fruit to potatoes, from Canada. Yes, a trade war will lead to higher prices for US consumers.

(Here’s something interesting about overall US ag imports, from the Economic Research Service of the US Deptartment of Agriculture, posted on June 30, 2026: “Much of the US agricultural import growth has come from high-valued imported goods — such as fruits and vegetables, alcoholic beverages, and processed food products. Those goods often include products that can’t be easily or economically produced in the United States (such as tropical products or off-season produce), as well as labor-intensive products that can be comparatively more cost effective to produce in other countries.”

If we run a trade deficit with a particular country on ag, it isn’t because they are “ripping us off” but because that’s the way economics work in a modern society.

How is the president working to make things better for the American people?

By claiming the body of water known as “Lake Ontario” is now “Lake America”?

This is incredibly childish — at most. Can you imagine any serious world leader resorting to this?

If the US is going to continue to be globally competitive with China it will need to work with allies including Canada, not alienate them with tariffs and trash talk.

But do we work with our allies? Of course we don’t. Because we’re number-one.

For now.

Xi Jinping is chuckling somewhere.

Macaulay is pundit-at-large for The Hustings, writing primarily for the right column.