By Todd Lassa

Rep. Anthony Gonzalez, R-OH, announced his retirement from the House last week, at the same time Democrats were celebrating California Gov. Gavin Newsom’s decisive victory in his Tuesday recall election.

There is a connection. Gonzalez, 38, was considered a rising star in GOP politics, representing a district to the west and south of Cleveland. He is one of 10 Republican members of the House of Representatives to vote for President Trump’s impeachment following the January 6 insurrection on Capitol Hill, which has in turn prompted former Trump aide Max Miller to “primary” him next year. Gonzalez cited “the toxic dynamics inside our own party,” though he also noted his young family as a factor in his retirement after just two terms. 

Trump reacted to Gonzalez’s news, last Friday, saying; “Good riddance to Anthony,” and “one down, nine to go,” according to The Washington Post.

But the tea leaves that California pundits are reading say the former president’s influence on the GOP is beginning to wane, and the state’s recall election last Tuesday is the first sign of Trump’s Waterloo. In California’s rather convoluted recall rules, which can hand keys to the governor’s mansion to a challenger earning far less than 50% of the vote if more than 50% of the electorate votes to recall, 63.5% said “no” to removing Newsom, a comfortable margin.

Trump’s candidate Larry Elders in the second part of the recall ballot, which asks voters to choose whom they would like to have replace the governor if recalled, earned “just” 47.1% of the vote. That’s not an insignificant share if you consider that 46 candidates ran to replace Newsom, including Democrat Kevin Paffrath, who earned 9.9%, and former San Diego Republican Mayor Kevin Faulconer, a moderate who scored just 8.4% (results per The New York Times.)

Democrats are particularly enthused about the high turnout in the recall, which is expected to be “north of” 50%, according to The Mercury News of San Jose. The party is not known for good turnout in odd years and midterms, when there isn’t a presidential election. Worse for the GOP, Elders’ unfounded claims on Monday that the election already was rigged in favor of retaining Newsom likely stifled Republican in-person voting on Tuesday.

Since the California recall election and Gonzalez’s early retirement, Democrats and never-Trumper Republicans already are claiming a second victory with poor turnout for the “Justice for J6” rally in Washington, D.C., Saturday planned by ex-Trump campaign staffer Matt Braynard. “Fewer than 100 right-wing demonstrators, sharply outnumbered by an overwhelming police presence and even by reporters” had gathered Saturday at the Capitol to protest “mistreatment of ‘political prisoners’ who had stormed the building” January 6, The New York Times reports.

For now, Republican rank-and-file, including House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy and all but 10 of his caucus appear eager for Trump to continue to head the party through next year’s midterms and on to a 2024 presidential election that the former president has all but promised to contest. But all Democratic and Republican eyes will be on a number of upcoming early indicators. Next is Virginia’s gubernatorial election, which pits a Republican, Glenn Youngkin, who has been steadily backing away from his MAGA association, against former one-term Democratic governor of the purple state, Terry McAuliffe, who is all too eager to pin the Trump connection to his opponent. 

Until November 2, then, the score has anti-Trumpers leading Trumpers, 2-1.