FRIDAY 6/2/23
It is Done – All but President Biden’s signature, coming with a weekend to spare before Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen’s deadline for averting economic catastrophe. Now all is left is for Fox News pundits to repeatedly declare Republican victory while MSNBC pundits do the same for Democrats and the White House.
The vote: Perhaps closer than it needed to be, 63-36. The bill suspends the $31.4-trillion debt ceiling to January 1, 2025, and places a two-year cap on discretionary spending.
The quote: “It is so good for this country that both parties have come together at last to avoid default.” – Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY).
The irony?: After the Senate voted down 11 amendments for fear the bill would have to go back to the House for reconciliation, Minority Leader Mitch McConnell sought a commitment to take up a supplemental funding bill, according to Roll Call. A supplemental to increase funding for a bill Republicans sought to cut spending from the Biden agenda.
This is, for Republicans, a matter of defense spending vs. domestic spending.
“We’ll be here ‘til Tuesday until I get commitments that we’re going to rectify some of these problems,” said Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-SC), who wants to ensure more funding for the Pentagon, Ukraine, Taiwan and Israel.
Counting the oppo: Five Democratic senators and 31 Republicans voted against the Fiscal Responsibility Act of 2023. Here is the list, from The Hill:
Democrats:
•John Fetterman, Pennsylvania
•Ed Markey and Elizabeth Warren, Massachusetts
•Jeff Merkley, Oregon
•Bernie Sanders, Vermont (Independent, but caucuses with the Democrats)
Republicans:
•John Barrasso and Cynthia Lummis, Wyoming
•Marsha Blackburn, Tennessee
•Mike Braun, Indiana
•Katie Britt and Tommy Tuberville, Alabama
•Ted Budd, North Carolina
•Bill Cassidy and John Kennedy, Louisiana
•Tom Cotton, Arkansas
•Mike Crapo and Jim Risch, Idaho
•Ted Cruz, Texas
•Steve Daines, Montana
•Deb Fischer and Pete Ricketts, Nebraska
•Lindsey Graham and Tim Scott, South Carolina
•Josh Hawley and Eric Schmitt, Missouri
•Cindy Hyde-Smith and Roger Wicker, Mississippi
•Ron Johnson, Wisconsin
•James Lankford, Oklahoma
•Mike Lee, Utah
•Roger Marshall, Kansas
•Rand Paul, Kentucky
•Marco Rubio and Rick Scott, Florida
•Dan Sullivan, Alaska
•J.D. Vance, Ohio
--Compiled and edited by Todd Lassa
_______________________________________________
...meanwhile...
THURSDAY 6/1/23
Debt Ceiling Bill Clears House – Democrats moved quickly to fill in when 29 hard-right Republican congressmembers voted against a procedure to advance the Fiscal Responsibility Act of 2023 to the floor for a vote. House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-NY) held up a green card indicating to his caucus they should vote with the majority of Republicans in order to push the procedure past the 218 votes needed to pass.
And with that, the House went on to pass the bill with a bipartisan 314-117 vote, The Hill reports. “Nay” votes break down to 71 Republicans and 46 Democrats. The bill covers the debt ceiling until January 1, 2025, when President Biden and staff will be writing his second inaugural address or preparing to turn over the White House keys to his Republican challenger.
Speaker McCarthy’s future might be far less certain, as dissenting Republicans are not tamping down talk of whether a single congressmember might move to vacate him.
But don’t tarry; on to the Senate: Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) expects to bring the bill to the Senate floor Friday, three days ahead of potential federal government default.
•••
Republican Candidates on Deck – Former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie plans to announce his candidacy for the 2024 GOP presidential nomination before the end of this week in New Hampshire, his 2016 campaign’s Waterloo. Former Vice President Mike Pence plans to announce next Wednesday, Axios reports.
•••
Lordy … There is a Tape – Federal prosecutors have obtained an audio tape recording of ex-President Trump acknowledging that he held on to a classified Pentagon document about a potential attack on Iran near the end of his presidency, multiple sources have told CNN. In the recording, sources said, Trump said he would like to share information about an attack on Iran, but he is aware of limitations on his ability, post-president, to declassify records, two of the sources told the cable news network.
The recording reportedly was made at Trump’s Bedminster, New Jersey, golf club by communications specialist Margo Martin between the former president and two people working on former Chief of Staff Mark Meadows’ book.
Special Counsel Jack Smith’s investigation into Trump allegedly holding on to classified documents he should have turned over to the National Archives when he left the White House in 2021 is said to be nearing its end. No indictments have been issued so far.
--TL
________________________________________________
WEDNESDAY 5/31/23
House Rules Moves Debt Ceiling Bill, But … The Rules Committee voted 7-6 to move the debt ceiling compromise bill to the full House, which is set to vote on it Wednesday. “Libertarian-minded” Rep. Thomas Massie (R-KY) provided the crucial seventh vote, The Washington Post reports. But as many as 30 House Republicans on Wednesday could vote against the Fiscal Responsibility Act of 2023 negotiated between President Biden and Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-CA).
While the punditocracy debates which side won this fight to avoid economic disaster by averting government default, “roughly a dozen” members of the hard-right House Freedom Caucus took to a Capitol Hill news conference to criticize the deal McCarthy made with Biden, according to the WaPo. Some progressive Democrats have slammed Biden for giving up too much, though the criticism is starting to look like sandbagging to cover for a very experienced negotiator. A sufficient number of House Democrats – perhaps all 213 – certainly will fill in for 30 or so Freedom Caucus members casting “nay” votes.
Upshot: That doesn’t leave McCarthy off the Freedom Caucus hook. As we’ve all learned from his drawn-out 15-ballot election to become speaker last February, it takes only one House member to move to vacate him from that role, and MAGA-minded Rep. Andy Biggs (R-AZ) has refused to rule out such a move.
•••
Ukraine to Negotiate Peace Without Putin – Ukraine and NATO allies are planning a peace summit without Russia, according to an exclusive by The Wall Street Journal. The summit will be aimed at Kyiv’s terms for ending the war and is to be held ahead of a meeting of NATO nations planned for July.
--TL
________________________________________
TUESDAY 5/30/23
House Takes Up Debt Ceiling Bill – Speaker Kevin McCarthy says the full House will take up the debt ceiling bill negotiated with the White House last week, the Fiscal Responsibility Act of 2023, on Wednesday. But first, the House Rules Committee, led by a 9-4 Republican majority must move the bill forward. Three members of the Freedom Caucus who sit on Rules could potentially stick up the bill: Reps. Chip Roy (R-TX), Ralph Norman (R-SC) and Thomas Massie (R-KY).
McCarthy wants the bill to advance as-is, but Norman told NPR the bill would have to go to the full House Wednesday with amendments.
“The bill as-is is unacceptable,” Norman told Morning Edition.
Upshot: McCarthy appointed the three Freedom Caucus members to the Rules Committee in exchange for their support to become speaker.
•••
Up on The Hill – Only the full Senate was scheduled to be in session Tuesday through Friday this week, but the House will be in session for part of the week to try and advance the Fiscal Responsibility Act of 2023 ahead of Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen’s June 5 federal default ETA.
•••
Drone Attack Hits Moscow – A drone attack hit Moscow Tuesday morning, “just hours” after a “barrage” of Russian airstrikes killed one and injured more than a dozen in Kyiv, The Washington Post reports, “a prelude to a major escalation in hostilities.” It also comes ahead of Ukraine’s anticipated offensive to push Russian troops back across the Dnipro River. Moscow Mayor Sergei Subyanin confirmed the attack, which damaged two residential buildings.
UPDATE -- Russia claims at least eight drone attacks by Ukraine, calling them "terrorist attacks." (Per NPR)
•••
Trump Attorney Says He Was Diverted from Classified Docs – Trump attorney Evan Corcoran said he was told classified documents taken by the former president would be found only in Mar-a-Lago’s storeroom, according to a scoop in The Guardian. Corcoran was waived off from searching elsewhere at the Florida compound, including Donald J. Trump’s office, where the FBI found the most sensitive material anywhere on the property in their search last summer. Thirty-eight classified documents were found in the storage room.
--Compiled and edited by Todd Lassa
___________________________________________
Memorial Day 2023
Who Won the Debt Ceiling Fight? -- Neither Republicans nor Democrats on Capitol Hill are likely to be terribly satisfied with the Biden-McCarthy deal to lift the $31.4-trillion federal debt ceiling through the next presidential election. Even before the 99-page bill was released late Sunday progressive Democrats expressed disappointment that the White House was willing to negotiate at all over its hard-fought agenda.
Meanwhile, Sen. Chris Murphy (D-CT) told the eponymous host of MSNBC’s Inside with Jen Psaki there may not be enough Republican support to pass the bill, taking away the potential victory from the only clear winner, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen. Last week, Yellen eased up on her warning that the government could run out of money to pay its bills by June 1, by four days, to June 5.
The deal raises the debt limit through January 2025, in time for either another default showdown with a re-elected President Biden or a new round of cuts with his Republican challenger if successful. In Speaker Kevin McCarthy’s (R-CA) bill narrowly passed in the House last April, HR 2811, the debt ceiling would have been covered to 2033.
The deal that now will go to the full House and Senate keeps non-defense spending essentially flat through fiscal year 2024, the Associated Press reports, and raises it by 1% in FY25. It would match Biden’s defense budget proposal for FY24 at $886 billion and fund non-defense spending at $704 billion. It aims to limit federal budgetary growth to 1% per year for the next six years, beginning in FY25.
Other provisions:
•Gives special treatment to West Virginia’s Mountain Valley natural gas pipeline, the subject of a fight with environmental groups for years. While this is not treated as the lead provision elsewhere, it demands mention at the top of our list as a concession to the state’s senators, especially moderate-right Democrat Joe Manchin (the junior senator is Republican Shelley Moore Caputo).
•The above Robert Byrdian item is in conjunction with a provision that simplifies some requirements for environmental reviews. It would simplify environmental assessments and impact statements, giving environmental agencies one year to complete, or up to two years for “complex” impacts on the environment. Though a longtime item on Republicans’ wish lists, the GOP removed this item from the White House’s Inflation Reduction Act in retaliation against Manchin for supporting the IRA in the first place.
•Rescinds about $30 billion in unspent coronavirus relief funds.
•Rescinds $1.4 billion in new Internal Revenue Service funding targeted to tax fraud. In all, $21.4 billion of $80 billion in additional funding to the IRS would be rescinded.
•Expands work requirements for Supplemental Nutrition Assistance (SNAP – formerly food stamps).
•Fully funds medical care for veterans at levels included in Bidens FY24 blueprint, including $20.3 billion in funds for veterans exposed to toxic substances.
Left in-tact: No new work requirements for some Medicaid recipients, no repeal of the clean energy tax credit.
Biden: “Good news. The agreement prevents the worst possible crisis, a default, for the first time in our nation’s history.”
McCartby: “At the endo of the day, people can work together to be able to pass this.”
•••
Erdogan, 3, Liberal Democracy, 0 – Authoritarianism dealt liberal democracy another blow Sunday when Recep Tayyip Erdo¨gan won a third five-year term as president of Turkey in a runoff election Sunday. He beat Kiliçda Ro¨glu with 52.1% to the challenger’s 47.5%, with all but 0.57% of the vote counted, Al Jazeera reports. Erdo¨gan was Turkish prime minister, taking over in 2003 before running for president.
--TL
__________________________________________
FRIDAY 5/26/23
Two Years of Debt Ceiling Relief? – Republicans and the White House are inching toward a debt ceiling deal late Thursday that would lift borrowing caps to some-time in 2025 and freeze spending to current levels, rather than impose the 8% cut imposed by HR 2811, the House imposed in its bill passed in late April, according to CQ Roll Call. HR 2811 also would impose discretionary caps to 2033.
President Biden stands firm… on work requirements for certain safety-net programs, which may be the biggest sticking point. If negotiators can reach a deal here, the full House would likely vote on the debt relief bill this weekend and hand it over to the Senate in time for June 1.
Upshot: Assuming some version of the above is passed and signed in time – before next Thursday – the debt ceiling issue will become a big issue in the 2024 elections, both presidential and congressional as Biden seeks to continue his work to dismantle Reaganomics, while a Republican president and control of Congress would give conservatives the chance to restore spending cuts imposed by the House bill.
•••
Rhodes Gets 18 Years – Oath Keepers founder Stewart Rhodes was sentenced to 18 years for seditious conspiracy for his role in the January 6th attack on the U.S. Capitol. An attorney himself, Rhodes said he “felt like a character in a Franz Kafka novel” and compared himself to a Soviet dissident sentenced to years in a prison camp, according to NPR’s All Things Considered.
Current lead Republican candidate for president in 2024, Donald J. Trump, has said he would pardon some of those convicted of participating in the January 6th insurrection, though he has not singled out individuals who rioted.
•••
Texas House to Impeach AG – Texas’ majority Republican House has adopted 20 articles of impeachment against the state’s Republican attorney general, Ken Paxton, Texas Public Radio reports. Articles of impeachment includes allegations Paxton disregarded official duties, misappropriated public resources and committed constitutional bribery and obstruction of justice.
This stems from four employees of the AG’s office turned whistle-blowers who made and reported accusations about Paxton’s misdeeds. Most relate to a $25,000 contribution to Paxton by Austin real estate investor Nate Paul, TPM’s The Texas Newsroomreports.
Paxton denies all articles of impeachment and says they are an effort to overturn his win in the 2022 elections. He is on the hook for $3.3-million paid to the whistleblowers. After the House votes to impeach, the case would go to the Texas senate, where Paxton’s wife is a member.
--Compiled and edited by Todd Lassa