As Donald J. Trump’s trial in Manhattan for falsifying business records begins what could be its final full week, numerous polls show the former president leading incumbent Joe Biden in swing states, giving Trump the potential edge in the Electoral College count.  

Is President Biden at the same stage that Trump was just after Memorial Day eight years ago, when Trump trailed Hillary Rodham Clinton, but slowly crept up to what was a statistical tie by November 2016? What happens to Trump’s poll numbers if the Manhattan jury finds him guilty in the business records/hush money case?

What about the Trump tax cuts, skewed toward the rich, which Biden, if he wins a second term, surely will want to let expire next year? 

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