THURSDAY July 4, 2024
THE LATEST -- Donald J. Trump has extended his lead to six points over President Biden, the widest margin since late 2021, in a poll by The Wall Street Journal begun two days after the presidential debate. That's a bump from a two-point Trump lead in February. Also, 80% told the WSJ poll they consider Biden too old to run for a second term as president.
Meanwhile... President Biden has told key allies he understands the coming days of campaigning are "crucial" and that he may not be able to salvage his bid for a second term if he can't convince the voting public he is up to the task, The New York Times reports. Biden is scheduled for a Friday interview with George Stephanopoulos on ABC News, plus campaign stops in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.
"He knows if he has two more events like that , we're in a different place," one of the allies told the NYT.
But in a call to his campaign staff, Biden said, "No one's pushing me out. I'm not leaving."
And White House Press Secretary Karine Jean-Pierre said the president told her directly he had not spoken with allies about dropping out of the race.
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WEDNESDAY 7/3/24
A clear divide is bubbling to the surface between rank & file Democrats and the president's close advisors, friends and family, after his disastrous performance in last Thursday’s debate with Donald J. Trump.
“In private, Democrats panic. For the Biden campaign, everything is fine,” reads a Wednesday headline in The Washington Post.
Veteran Rep. Lloyd Doggett (D-TX) became the first, and so far only, Congress member to call on Biden to step down from his campaign, telling NPR’s Morning Edition “we have a criminal and a gang who are about to take over our government.”
The issue is not with Biden’s first three-and-a-half years, which most mainstream Dems heartily applaud. It’s about the next half-year, which Biden simply cannot win as far as they’re concerned.
“I think he’s behind and we need to put our best people forward,” Doggett told NPR. “I think the concerns I’m voicing are widespread.”
The Biden camp, consisting of his family and long-time advisors including Jennifer O’Malley, Anita Dunn, Mike Donilon, Bruce Reed, White House Chief of Staff Jeff Zients and his chief of staff while vice president, Steve Richetti, should be conferring with him at Camp David this long July 4 weekend. If any single one of them can pop Biden’s bubble and convince him it will take a younger Democrat to keep Trump out of office, the Democratic campaign for president will change very quickly.
We would say this will turn the 2024 presidential election on its head, but that happened nearly a year ago, when Donald J. Trump announced he would run for the Republican nomination. If Biden refuses to end his re-election campaign, “down-ballot” Democrats including House candidates, who until now were confident their party would flip the Republican Party’s wafer-thin margin in the lower chamber fear they will lose seats and not have the majority necessary to slow a second Trump administration’s radical agenda.
To that point, Biden Wednesday morning issued a memo to his House allies that shows still-tight internal polling and greater fundraising than the Trump campaign in June. The Biden campaign “significantly outraised” the Trump campaign, $127 million to $112 million, according to the memo, revealed to Politico.
--Todd Lassa
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SCOTUS' 6-3 ruling Monday granting ex-President Trump immunity from official acts in connection with the January 6thattack on the US Capitol remains the topic of political discussion leading into the nation’s 248th birthday Thursday. Should we consider 248 years without a king a pretty good run?
End of Democracy? -- TUESDAY 7/2/24
Trump Gets Another Court Delay -- Sentencing of Donald J. Trump on his conviction in a Manhattan court for falsifying business records in connection with a hush-money payment to adult film star Stormy Daniels has been rescheduled from next Thursday, July 11 -- four days before the Republican National Convention begins -- to Wednesday, September 18, according to The Wall Street Journal. How did Trump manage yet another court delay? Two extra months gives Judge Juan Merchan time to consider whether the Supreme Court's ruling on presidential immunity affects Trump's conviction.
More from Sotomayor – Monday we repeated Justice Sonia Sotomayor’s (pictured) minority opinion in which she was joined by justices Elena Kagan and Ketanji Brown Jackson in concluding; “With fear for our democracy, I dissent.”
Sotomayor began her dissent thusly: “Today’s decision to grant former Presidents criminal immunity reshapes the institution of the Presidency. It makes a mockery of the principle, foundational to our Constitution and system of Government, that no man is above the law. Relying on little more than its own misguided wisdom about the need for ‘bold and unhesitating action’ by the President … the Court gives President Trump all the immunity he asked for and more.”
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TRUMP WINS IMMUNITY -- MONDAY 7/1/24
UPDATE: SCOTUS Hands Trump ‘A Major Victory’ – A US president has “absolute immunity from criminal prosecution for actions within his conclusive and preclusive constitutional authority,” the Supreme Court said in a 6-3 ruling, which Donald J. Trump’s presidential campaign calls “a major victory.” But the ruling, written by Chief Justice John Roberts, sends the issue back to Tanya Chutkan, US district court judge for the District of Columbia, for the question of which acts Trump allegedly committed in conjunction with the January 6th attack on the Capitol are “official” and which are not (per NPR and the AP).
Delay is a win… Punting back “official” versus “unofficial” acts to Chutkan gives Trump the big win, as there is no chance special counsel Jack Smith’s case will come back to the district court before November 5. If Trump wins the presidential race, the case will die under his Justice Department.
Opinions… Roberts’ majority opinion says the district and appeals courts did not take sufficient time to consider the questions of immunity and official v. unofficial acts. Writing for the minority, which included fellow liberals Elena Kagan and Ketanji Brown Jackson, Justice Sonia Sotomayor writes that the majority opinion “reshapes the institution of the presidency,” and concludes: “With fear for our democracy, I dissent.”
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Post-Presidential Immunity? – The Supreme Court Monday will issue its ruling on whether Donald J. Trump has immunity as an ex-president, in special counsel Jack Smith’s case charging him for his alleged efforts to block Joe Biden’s 2020 election victory. SCOTUS also will issue its ruling on whether states, specifically Florida and Texas, can restrict social media companies from removing certain political posts or accounts, The Washington Post reports. Then SCOTUS goes on vacation until the first Monday in October.
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France Turns Right – As Democrats wring their hands over whether it has a better chance of not losing to Donald J. Trump this November with a new presidential candidate brokered at its Chicago convention this August, the far-right National Rally party led by Marine Le Pen was leading France’s parliamentary elections after the first round of votes Sunday. The Wall Street Journal quotes a Harris Interactive poll that says National Rally and its allies took 34% of the first-round votes to 30% for a coalition of leftist parties.
President Emmanuel Macron, who surprised and upset his supporters when he called for snap elections last month, clearly has lost – his pro-business party and its allies were in third place with just 22% of the votes.
“I have never seen France more divided,” remarked NPR’s veteran Paris correspondent, Eleanor Beardsley.
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Britain to Turn Left? – The UK’s parliamentary elections are Thursday, July 4, where the Labour Party, led by former public prosecutor and human rights attorney Keir Starmer, has led the Conservative Party by double-digits for 18 months, according to The New York Times. Prime Minister Rishi Sunak, of the Conservative Party, called for the elections in May, the first full parliamentary elections since December 2019, when Boris Johnson won in a landslide victory for the Conservatives, who have led since 2010.
--Compiled and edited by Todd Lassa