By Chase Wheaton
After predicting, like most of the country did, that Hillary Clinton would win the 2016 presidential election by a landslide, and being proved quite wrong, I’ve been hesitant to make any predictions this year. Even now, the story of this election cycle feels eerily similar to that of the 2016 election: The Democratic candidate leads in virtually every national poll, while negative news story after negative news story is uncovered about President Trump, which then further infuriates the left while seemingly emboldens the right, and so on. While my conservative counterpart believes we’ll repeat history and see a slight Trump victory again, I must cautiously disagree and predict that Joe Biden will be victorious, although just barely, come Election Day.
Why am I so cautious with my prediction? My counterpart makes a lot of good arguments. An unenthused Biden voter myself, I agree that the average Trump voter’s enthusiasm is higher than that of the average Biden voter, largely due to the disenfranchisement that a lot of progressive (not Democratic) voters feel towards the Democratic Party after candidates like Bernie Sanders were disregarded by party establishment without being given a fair chance to succeed during the primary. Additionally, there are a huge number of voters that feel ashamed to voice their support for President Trump, but who will be the first in line to vote for him, and I’m sure that the number of people in this “silent majority” has only increased since 2016.
Going even further, the Electoral College, an archaic institution that needs to be abolished, makes it hard to feel confident about a Biden victory, as it has historically favored Republican candidates in presidential elections (in fact, only one Republican presidential candidate in the last 28 years has won both the popular and electoral votes in the general election). I’d also be remiss not to mention the hard-fought efforts by the Trump administration in recent weeks to suppress votes by denying adequate funding for the U.S. Postal Service, by fighting to remove ballot boxes in battleground states, and by spreading misinformation about the validity of mail-in voting during a global pandemic.
With all these factors in play, it’d be reckless to believe Biden will win this election with ease, and I caution other Democrats against feeling any sense of comfort or victory just yet. Yes, almost 21 million people have already voted in this election, 10 times the number of early voters at this point in the 2016 election. Yes, Biden has consistently held a double-digit lead over Trump in almost every national poll to date. And yes, the list of President Trump’s failures and offenses is seemingly never-ending. Unfortunately, I don’t believe it’ll be that easy, and I believe we’ll need every vote we can get if we want to rid ourselves of the nightmare that’s been the last 4 years.