…meanwhile…

The Oklahoma GOP has censured Lankford for his work on the "compromise" border bill. Scroll down for details.

FRIDAY 2/9/24

Biden’s Age Trumps Docs Case – Special Counsel Robert K. Hur found that Joe Biden’s “willfull” retention and disclosure of classified documents doesn’t establish the president’s guilt “beyond a reasonable doubt,” but the other side of those findings sure does sting. Hur, a U.S. attorney during the Trump administration, found Biden a “sympathetic, well-meaning elderly man with a poor memory,” and that part prompted Biden to hold a press conference Thursday to defend himself.

But in the presser, Biden referred to Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi as the president of Mexico, NPR’s Morning Editionreports, and told a CNN reporter that the press does not agree with age/memory issues raised – apparently he meant “the public” does not agree.

Meanwhile: Hur’s report will trigger another round of hand wringing from supporters, including never-Trump conservatives, who want to see a younger Democratic candidate take on Donald J. Trump. Three years younger than Biden, Trump has exhibited plenty of memory lapses and name mix-ups himself, though his avid supporters expect no explanation.

Trumpdate: The former president easily won GOP caucuses Thursday in Nevada, as expected, and in the U.S. Virgin Islands, AP reports.

•••

Zelenskyy Fires Military Commander – After weeks of speculation he would do so, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has replaced Commander-in-Chief Valerii Zaluzhnyi, who had led the military since before Russia’s full-scale invasion, with Gen. Oleksandr Syrskyi (The Kyiv Independent). The new commander previously served as commander of Ukraine’s Grand Forces and the Khortysia Operational and Strategic Group fighting in Ukraine’s east.

Meanwhile, in the U.S. Senate: After aid to Ukraine, Israel and to Indo-Pacifc allies went down with the border bill earlier this week, the Senate cleared an initial procedural hearing to move said aid along, The Hill reports, with several more procedural votes to come.

And in the House: The Senate’s determination to pass above aid, with help from non-MAGA Republicans including Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, of Kentucky, is placing Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) in an especially sticky space. If and when the full Senate passes an aid package for Ukraine, Israel and Taiwan, Johnson will be forced to bring the bill to the House’s floor, where a majority of Democrats plus non-MAGA Republicans will very likely pass it. But Rep. Marjorie Taylor-Green (R-GA) already has said she would pull a Kevin McCarthy on the current speaker.

•••

Pardon the Interruption, Mr. Putin – Ex-Fox News host Tucker Carlton struggled to get a word in during the first half-hour of a two-hour-plus interview with Russian President Vladimir Putin, according to The Washington Post’s account. As expected, Putin defended his invasion of Ukraine and claimed to have no interest in attacking Poland or any other NATO countries unless attacked by them first.

“Carlson spent most of the interview in silence, or looking confounded,” WaPo says in its report.

--TL

__________________________________________

THURSDAY 2/8/24

No Charges in Biden Docs Case – Special Counsel Robert K. Hur found evidence President Biden “willfully retained and disclosed classified materials after his vice presidency when he was a private citizen,” The Washington Post reports, but the evidence “does not establish Mr. Biden’s guilt beyond a reasonable doubt.” The long-awaited 345-page Justice Department filing comes after 173 interviews with 145 witnesses, including Biden. To secure a conviction, DOJ officials would need to prove to a jury that Biden retained the information willfully, according to the report.

•••

SCOTUS Hears Colorado Ballot Case -- Hearing legal arguments in Trump v. Anderson the U.S. Supreme Court appeared likely to overturn a Colorado Supreme Court ruling that ordered former President Trump from the state's 2024 presidential primary ballot. Liberal as well as conservative justices were skeptical in their questioning of whether a ruling upholding the Colorado court would prompt other states from removing a Democratic candidate from their ballots.

•••

MAGA Rules – Sen. James Lankford (R-OK), who negotiated the failed bipartisan border bill with Sens. Krysten Sinema (I-AZ) and Chris Murphy (D-CT) took to the Senate floor Wednesday and said a right-wing media personality weeks ago vowed to do “whatever I can to destroy you” if he tried to “move a bill that solves the border crisis during this presidential year…” (The New York Times). “By the way. They have been faithful to their promise and have done everything they can to destroy me.”

The Daily Beast has identified that media personality as radio host Jesse Kelly, who broadcasts on iHeartRadio’s Premiere Networks.

Sinking aid for Ukraine: The Senate’s failure to pass cloture on the border bill has, among other effects, sunk $60 billion in emergency aid to Ukraine. Donald Tusk, prime minister of neighboring Poland said that Ronald Reagan would be “turning in his grave” over U.S. Congress’ failure to pass the aid package (per BBC) and effectively hand victory to Russia’s Vladimir Putin.

Single-party Congress?: Has indicted GOP presidential candidate Donald J. Trump already taken over Congress? Is it essentially a single-(MAGA) party, authoritarian entity that can effectively rule without compromise? Email your comments to editora@thehustings.news.

•••

Colorado or Bust?: The U.S. Supreme Court Thursday will consider whether Donald J. Trump can be removed from Colorado’s primary ballot, under Section 3 of the 14^th Amendment. SCOTUS’ decision will have implications for Trump’s campaign in the rest of the nation (NPR).

--TL

__________________________________________

WEDNESDAY 2/7/24

NOTC Beats Haley in Nevada – None of These Candidates won the Nevada GOP presidential primary Tuesday, handily beating the only other candidate on the ballot, former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley (Associated Press). That makes Haley the first candidate for either party to lose a race to NOTC since offered as an option in 1975. Haley did not campaign in Nevada, where citizen Donald J. Trump is certain to win Thursday’s GOP caucus.

“Watch, she’ll soon claim Victory!” Trump posted on his Truth Social site.

Haley has been campaigning for the February 24 GOP primary in her home state of South Carolina. Her chances of nabbing the nomination now depend on how, and how soon, the Supreme Court rules on Tuesday’s federal appeals court ruling against Trump’s claim of presidential immunity in his January 6 insurrection case.

Meanwhile: The AP called Nevada’s Democratic primary for President Biden, based on the vote from Washoe County, second most populous in the state. Biden had 89%, NOTC got 6% and Marianne Williamson scored 3%.

•••

McDaniel to Step Down – Ronna McDaniel will step down as chairwoman of the Republican National Committee after the South Carolina GOP primary, sources have told The New York Times. Citizen Trump is likely to back North Carolina GOP head Michael Whatley, a supporter of the former president’s false claims of election fraud, according to the report.

--TL

__________________________________________

No Impeachment for Mayorkas -- Four House Republicans joined all Democrats to defeat a motion to impeach Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas, 216-214, The New York Times reports.

As the Border Bill Churns ...

TUESDAY 2/6/24

Meanwhile … House Republicans have been proceeding with potential impeachment of Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas for “failing” to control the border, as the pro-Trump faction of the caucus vows to block the Senate’s border bill proposal. Now The Hill reports that Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) has but one Republican to spare to vote for Mayorkas’ impeachment, as Reps. Ken Buck (R-CO) and Tom McClintock (R-CA) have announced they will vote “nay.” Buck and McClintock argue that a cabinet secretary should not be removed for carrying out administration policy on immigration and border control.

•••

Border Bill Response -- "All indications are this bill won't even move forward to the Senate floor. Why? A simple reason: Donald Trump. Because Donald Trump thinks it's bad for him politically." -- President Biden speaking from the White House Tuesday (per The Hill).

•••

Trump Can Face Trial -- A federal appeals court unanimously ruled Tuesday morning that Donald J. Trump can be put on trial for trying to remain in power after the 2020 election (The Washington Post), rejecting the former president's sweeping claim of immunity. One judge on the appeals court had feared during the hearing that a ruling for Trump could allow for political assassinations. Trump already has plans to appeal first to the full U.S. Court of Appeals for the D.C. Circuit on up to the U.S. Supreme Court, to delay well past the original March 4 trial date, and through the November elections.

•••

There’s Got to be a Morning After—Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) will bring the $118 border security/Ukraine aid bill to the floor for a procedural vote Wednesday, but Republicans already are declaring it doomed to fail.

Semafor is staging a “deathwatch,” citing a Reuters report that the border bill is in trouble.

A House Democrat told Politico Playbook, on condition of anonymity; “I’m coming to the notion that everything is dead. All of it.”

Sen. Chris Murphy (D-CT), who spent the last four months negotiating the bill with Sens. Jim Lankford (R-OK) and Krysten Sinema (I-AZ), told NPR’s Morning Edition “it would be the most significant bipartisan border reform in 40 years. And it is what American people want. They don’t want this issue to be used as a permanent political cudgel. They want to solve the problem.”

But a “wave” of Republicans in the Senate, even the hawks who want to see continued aid to Ukraine, appear ready to put the brakes on the bill Wednesday by voting against cloture.

Wait, wait … Punchbowl News scoops that Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) told a closed-door meeting with his caucus that the problem “isn’t the bill itself but that the political mood has shifted” in those past four months. McConnell told fellow Republicans to vote against cloture this week and take more time to consider the bill and offer amendments. The message, according to a senator who spoke to the outlet about McConnell’s meeting on the condition of anonymity is; “we can’t rush this right now.”

Nevertheless, it’s unclear, the report concludes, whether there is a future for the bill if it fails to advance this week, even as Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) warns of what happens to U.S. security if Vladimir Putin takes Ukraine.

Compromise … Murphy concedes there are a few senators in his party opposed to the bill (including Bob Menendez of New Jersey), but that a bipartisan majority would otherwise be ready to pass it.

“The problem is, right now, it looks as if most Republicans are going to vote against this as well,” he told Morning Edition. “And the only way you can get this passed in the Senate right now is if you have a majority of Democrats and a majority of Republicans supporting it. And right now, most Republicans are willing to listen to Donald Trump. He wants chaos to continue at the border because that will help him politically.”

•••

Speaking of Putin – Former Fox News star Tucker Carlson’s visit to Moscow over the weekend has sparked some buzz over whether he might interview Russian leader Vladimir Putin, The Guardian reports. After the Mash Telegram channel published a photo Saturday of Carlson attending the Bolshoi theater in Moscow, Russian state media outlet Isvestia interviewed him about his visit.

Carlson told Isvestia he “wanted to talk to people, look around, and see how it’s doing … and it’s doing very well.” Isvestia then asked whether Carlson was in Moscow to interview Putin.

“We’ll see,” Carlson responded, with a smile.

Watch for Carlson’s interview of dictator Putin, coming up on Elon Musk’s X-Twitter.

•••

Dearborn Ramps Up Security – Dearborn, Michigan has the highest concentration of Muslims in the United States. Last Friday, The Wall Street Journal published an op-ed by Steven Stalinsky, executive director of the Middle Eastern Research Institute in which he called Dearborn “America’s jihad capital.” That prompted its mayor, Abdullah Hammoud to tweet that police have increased security at the city’s places of worship and at its major infrastructures.

--TL

__________________________________________

'DOA' Senate Border Bill Released

MONDAY 2/5/24

UPDATE -- Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) is trying to "cobble together" Republican votes to pass the border/national security funding bill, The Hill reports. This alters the meaning of his first statement after the bipartisan bill was unveiled, but it also contradicts the expectation that the bill would have an easy time passing the full Senate.

Arrived – The Senate delivered text over the weekend of a $118.3-billion bipartisan bill containing emergency national security funding for Ukraine, Israel and Taiwan, as well as the way the U.S. handles immigrants at the southwest border with Mexico. The Senate is expected to take up the bill this week as a substitute amendment, according to CQ Roll Call’s report.

The bill provides:

•$60 billion in emergency aid for Ukraine.

•$14.1 billion for emergency aid for Israel.

•$10 billion in humanitarian assistance for civilians in Gaza, the West Bank, Ukraine and other conflicts.

•Nearly $5 billion to support U.S. interests in the Indo-Pacific region, including funds to replenish American weapons in Taiwan.

“What we have here is something that can pass the Senate and the House,” Senate Appropriations Chair Patty Murphy (D-WA) said, according to the Roll Call report. “There is no reason for drama, delay or partisanship.”

But with House Speaker Mike Johnson’s (R-LA) opposition expressed before any language was released, in favor of maintaining the border crisis as Donald J. Trump’s main talking point in his election campaign, even Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) is keeping his options open.

The Senate “must carefully consider the opportunity,” was all McConnell said in response to the bill.

Sen. Chris Murphy (D-CT), a lead negotiator, said the bipartisan bill would:

•Empower President Biden to reduce the flow of migrants to the U.S.

•Speed up asylum applications.

•Expand legal pathways to immigrants.

More than $20 billion from the bill would expand operational needs and expand border control capabilities at the border.

Counter-bill: Johnson said he is preparing to bring a standalone, $17.6 billion supplemental funding package for Israel and U.S. troops in the Middle East to the House floor this week.

The takeaway: The two bills likely will die as each moves to the other chamber … though Murphy says overwhelming bipartisan support for the Senate’s bill would force it to the floor of the House, NPR reports.

•••

Blinken in Saudi Arabia – Secretary of State Antony Blinken arrived in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, Monday for his fifth visit to the Middle East since the October 7 Hamas attacks on Israel. Blinken hopes to negotiate a peace framework in Gaza (per The New York Times).

Hamas is still considering a proposal to stop fighting, according to the NYT.

Meanwhile … The Pentagon continues military retaliation over the killing of three U.S. soldiers last month by Iran-backed militias, following dozens of military strikes last week by U.S. forces on targets in Iraq and Syria.

Up on the Hill – The House is in session Monday, and the Senate is in session Thursday and Friday. Both chambers are in session Tuesday and Wednesday.

--Compiled and edited by Todd Lassa

_____
COMMENTS: editors@thehustings.news

Conservative Argues in Favor of Border Bill

Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) and MAGA Republicans in the House never wanted a border bill, David Frum argues Tuesday in The Atlantic. While the bill was being negotiated, Republican-controlled legislatures in Florida, Arkansas, Ohio and Wisconsin have been easing workplace laws on high school-age children, serving as virtual “help-wanted” advertising for immigrants, he writes.

Frum’s comments are in this right column in part because he is a traditional conservative pundit. In his column, he argues that what Johnson and MAGA House members really want is to say “no” to more aid for Ukraine and to refuse compromise with Democrats.

He also quotes this study from the libertarian Cato Institute – one of its three founders in 1974 was Charles Koch – published in November 2023:

“The Biden Department of Homeland Security (DHS) has removed a higher percentage of arrested border crossers in its first two years than the Trump DHS did over its last two years. Moreover, migrants were more likely to be released after a border arrest under President Trump than under President Biden. In absolute terms, the Biden DHS removed 3.5 times as many people per month as the Trump DHS did.”

“Glowering and yelling does not in fact accomplish much,” Frum writes.

We’re looking for conservative readers to tell us whether Senate and House Republicans should vote for the border bill, and if not, why not? Please email your comments to editors@thehustings.news.

•••

Nevada's GOP Primary and Caucus This Week

Good news for Republican presidential candidate Nikki Haley: She has a good chance of winning the Nevada GOP primary.

Bad news for Haley: She is not participating in the state’s GOP caucus, which is the only contest awarding delegates to the GOP convention (per Ballotpedia).

Haley is on Nevada’s Tuesday, February 6 primary ballot, which is open only to registered Republicans, and Donald J. Trump is not.

Trump’s campaign is participating in the Thursday, February 8 Nevada caucus along with Create Church co-founder Ryan Brinkley. Haley is not. The caucus will award 26 delegates to the Republican convention. The primary will not.

•••

Should Congress pass the Senate’s bipartisan border security and emergency security funding bill, as outlined in the center column, or should Republicans give in to Donald J. Trump’s opposition and keep the issue alive for the presumed Republican presidential nominee?

Email your comments to editors@thehustings.news and list in the subject line whether you consider yourself conservative or liberal, so we post your civilly expressed thoughts in the appropriate column.

_____

Arab American Groups Cancel Biden Meeting

A majority of 15 Arab American groups set to meet with Biden campaign official Julie Chavez Rodriguez in Dearborn, Michigan, have decided to skip it, Ahmad Chebbani, co-founder of the Arab American Chamber of Commerce, told Reuters last week.

“We’re not interested,” Chebbani said. “Only when a ceasefire has been announced and the people of Gaza are taken care of, then will a discussion be appropriate.”

Biden is expected to meet with the United Auto Workers and tentatively, Arab American groups in the purple state of Michigan this week.

Whether left or right, moderate, progressive or hard-right, you are invited to email your comments on our recent political news/news aggregates and/or recent right-column or left-column commentary to editors@thehustings.news and please be sure to indicate your political leanings in the subject line so we can post your comments in the appropriate column.

_____

…meanwhile…

More good news (maybe) for the Biden campaign; the economy added a healthy 353,000 jobs in January, with gains in professional and business services, health care, retail trade and social assistance. GOP talking points: there were fewer jobs in mining, quarrying and gas and oil extraction. The unemployment rate remained unchanged at 3.7%. [SOURCE: U.S. Department of Labor, FRIDAY 2/2/24.]

__________________________________________

THURSDAY 2/1/24

EU Passes Aid to Ukraine – The European Union got Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban to go along with a 50-billion euro fund (about $54 billion) for Ukraine Thursday, 27-0, at their summit in Brussels, The New York Times reports. As leader for the EU’s standout authoritarian country, Orban is considered a close ally of Russia’s Vladimir Putin, so his necessary concession for a unanimous vote is significant.

“All 27 leaders agreed on an additional 50-billion euro support package for Ukraine within the European Union budget,” European Council President Charles Michel said on social media. “This is steadfast, long-term, predictable funding. EU is taking leadership & responsibility in support for Ukraine; we know what is at stake.”

Note: This maybe takes a slight bit of pressure off U.S. Congress, where the House Freedom Caucus is trying to block a border bill tied to roughly $61 billion in U.S. aid to Ukraine (as well as aid for Israel and Taiwan) in order to keep the border issue in Donald J. Trump’s corner.

•••

House Passes $78b Tax Bill – With opposition from the Freedom Caucus, some progressive Democrats and a few moderate New York Republicans, the House passed a $78 billion tax bill Wednesday that boosts the child tax credit through 2025 and reinstates three business deductions cut from the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, The Hill reports. GOP leadership suspended rules that would have required a three-quarters vote, but that proved unnecessary as it passed 357-70.

Bipartisan, indeed.

•••

Zucked Up – It took Sen. Josh Hawley (R-MO) to get Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg (Facebook and Instagram) to stand up and turn to parents of children who were victims of sexual abuse and exploitation on social media, in the Senate Judiciary Committee audience, and apologize.

“I’m sorry for everything you’ve been through,” Zuckerberg said (per USA Today).

Like the House tax bill (above), this Senate hearing proved refreshingly bipartisan in committee members’ criticism of social media effects on children.

Social media apps have “given predators powerful new tools to exploit Children,” Sen. Dick Durbin (D-IL) said.

“You have blood on your hands,” said Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-SC).

Zuckerberg was grilled along with X’s (Twitter’s) Linda Yaccarino, TikTok’s Shou Zi Chew, Snap’s Evan Spiegel and Discord’s Jason Citron, according to NPR’s All Things Considered.

Five federal bills have been introduced to counter social media exploitation. Prior to the hearing, only Snap announced support for one of the bills, the Kids Online Safety Act.

Another bipartisan bill, The Platform Accountability and Transparency Act, is co-sponsored by Sen. Chris Coons (D-DE).

“Is there any of you willing to say now that you support this bill?” Coons asked the five social media CEOs (per ATC). “Mr. Chairman, let the record reflect a yawning silence from the leaders of the social media platforms.”

--TL

__________________________________________

WEDNESDAY 1/31/24

Mayorkas Faces Impeachment – The House Homeland Security Committee voted 18-15 along party lines early Wednesday to send two articles of impeachment against Alejandro Mayorkas, accusing him of “willful and systemic refusal to comply with the law” and breach of public trust, The Washington Post reports.

But the Democrats… repeatedly countered during the committee hearing that Republicans have no basis to impeach Mayorkas, President Biden’s Homeland Security secretary. They say that in two previous hearings Republican congressmembers have struggled to show evidence of high crimes or misdemeanors. Mayorkas will surely be acquitted by the Senate if the impeachment gets that far.

Meanwhile: House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) is pumping the brakes on the Senate’s border security bill in order to keep the issue for ex-President Trump’s campaign.

•••

Trump’s Next Penalty – Judge Arthur Engoran is expected to issue his decision as early as Wednesday on the size and scale of the penalty in New York Attorney General Letitia James’ civil fraud case against the Trump Organization, according to Newsweek. This would come hot on the heels of a jury’s $83.3 million award ordering Donald J. Trump – the ex-president, not the organization – to pay E. Jean Carroll for defamation. In the New York civil fraud case, James wants the Trump Organization to lose its license to do business in New York.

--TL

__________________________________________

TUESDAY 1/30/24

Senate GOP v. House GOP – Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) is betting that if the Senate’s yet-to-be-revealed border bill passes with heavy Republican support House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) will be “pressed” to put it up for a vote, according to The Hill. Johnson last week called the bill “dead on arrival,” shortly after McConnell revealed to Punchbowl News his caucus was getting pressure from Donald J. Trump directly to sink the bill and assure it remains his campaign’s major talking point going into the November presidential elections.

The bill also is tied to aid for Ukraine, Israel and Taiwan.

Johnson knows, however, that if he does advance the bill to the floor he could face potential removal from the speakership by the House Freedom Caucus.

Conservative Republicans have called on President Biden to shut down the border by executive action, as Trump did during his administration. Over the last weekend, The Hill notes, Biden pledged to do just that if given the power by the bipartisan Senate legislation in question.

•••

Bowling for Biden? — Super Bowl LVIII could be “rigged” to boost the profile of pop music singer/songwriter Taylor Swift ahead of her plans to endorse President Biden’s re-election, former GOP presidential candidate and Trump cabinet member-in-waiting Vivek Ramaswamy posited Monday, according to the New York Daily News. Ramaswamy floated a conspiracy theory that “some unseen hand” wants the Kansas City Chiefs to beat the San Francisco 49ers because Swift is dating Chiefs tight end Travis Kelce.

On Vivek’s X feed: “I wonder who’s going to win the Super Bowl next month. And I wonder if there’s a major presidential endorsement coming from an artificially culturally propped-up couple this fall.”

If any of the above words stand out to you, they should be “boost the profile” of Swift, who has boosted the profile of the Chiefs, Kelce and the entire NFL.

The Daily News notes that Swift endorsed Biden in 2020 and quoted an article in The New York Times that White House aides are “apparently brainstorming” how to get the immensely popular superstar to endorse him again ahead of the November election.

--TL

__________________________________________

MONDAY 1/29/24

Mayorkas Faces Impeachment – House Republicans released two articles of impeachment against Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas early Monday, NPR’s Morning Edition reports, as Senate negotiators were set to possibly release text of a bipartisan border bill as early as this week, according to Semafor. This comes as ex-President Trump continues to command Republicans to reject any compromise bill so he could make it the centerpiece of his 2024 campaign against President Biden.

Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) said the bill is “dead on arrival” if “certain rumors about the contents of the draft proposal are true.” Last Thursday, Punchbowl News scooped Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell’s genuflection for Trump, saying Republicans in the chamber are likely to reject the bill because the “Politics have changed.” … “We don’t want to do anything to undermine him.”

Although McConnell split with Trump after January 6, 2021, the minority leader does want the GOP to win enough Senate race toss-ups in November to return him to the majority leader’s position.

Johnson under fire: But there are sufficient numbers of Senate Republicans who want to see a bipartisan bill connected with resumed funding for Ukraine, Israel and Taiwan and the House needs all Democrats and a few Republicans to pass it, if they can get the speaker to bring it to the floor, a move that almost certainly would trigger an attempt by MAGA congress members to take back Johnson’s gavel. Passing the bill would not only potentially hurt Trump and Republican congressional candidates this fall; it would force Fox News and other right-wing media to change their attack strategy.

Nothing-to-lose lame-duck Sen. Mitt Romney (R-UT) told reporters late last week that Trump “doesn’t want to solve the border problem because he wants to blame Biden for it.”

Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX) said, “The only purpose for taking this up is giving Democrats political cover to say ‘Gosh, we want to secure the border.’”

Trump sez: “I noticed a lot of senators, a lot of the senators are trying to say – respectfully (! -ed) they’re blaming it on me. That’s OK. Please blame it on me. Please. Because they were getting ready to pass a very bad bill. I’d rather have no bill than a bad bill.”

Border bill negotiator Sen. James Lankford (R-OK), responded with, “I’m looking forward to President Trump getting the opportunity to be able to read it, like everybody else is.” (Quotes per Bloomberg News.)

Which circles back to Semafor’s reporting the bill could be released as early as this week. Is there any chance Trump and Fox News et. al. will say anything nice about it?

ICYMI: Speaking of the $61-billion Ukraine aid package being held up over the border bill, the country’s president, Volodymyr Zelenskyy told the UK’s Channel 4 News earlier in January about Trump’s claims he would negotiate an end to the war with Russia in one day; “Donald Trump, I invite you to Kyiv. If you can stop the war during 24 hours, I think it will be enough to come.”

It’s not the economy, stupid: All this comes as President Biden’s re-election campaign hopes to ramp up its cheerleading for the surging economy – Real GDP up 4.9% in the fourth quarter, inflation easing and an historically low unemployment, with no apparent recession in sight – as he campaigned in South Carolina over the weekend. Instead, Biden has the grim task of responding to a drone strike apparently by Iranian-backed militias on a U.S. military facility in northeast Jordan, near the Syrian border. Three U.S. soldiers were killed and dozens more were injured.

“We had a tough day last night in the Middle East,” Biden said (AP). “We lost three brave souls in an attack on one of our bases. … and we will respond.”

After this attack, the Israel-Hamas war is almost certain to become a larger, regional conflict.

•••

Haley’s Future – Nikki Haley Sunday on NBC News’ Meet the Press on how long she may continue challenging Donald J. Trump for the GOP presidential nomination, said “As long as I keep growing per state, I am in this race. I have every intention of going to Super Tuesday, through Super Tuesday. We’re going to keep going and see where this gets us. That’s what we know we’re going to do right now. I take it one state at a time. I don’t think too far ahead.”

--Compiled and edited by Todd Lassa

_____
COMMENTS: editors@thehustings.news

Who’s RINO Now?

Constant readers will notice that our regular right-column commentator, pundit-at-large Stephen Macaulay, is and has always been a never-Trumper. He is conservative, not populist, representing the pro-business and free-trade pre-2016 GOP.

But we welcome civilly stated comments from pro-MAGA conservatives as well and hope to engage readers with a wide range of political thought. Here at The Hustings we’re looking for insight on how Donald J. Trump has been able to keep the GOP under his control all these years.

Whatever your politics, we want to hear from you. Email your comments on our recent political news/news aggregates and/or recent right-column or left-column commentary to editors@thehustings.news and please be sure to indicate your political leanings in the subject line so we can post them in the appropriate column.

_____

Nothing New in New Hampshire

By Ken Zino

The results of the New Hampshire GOP primary were nothing new. It confirmed the rematch of President Biden versus the 91-count indicted, defeated ex-President Trump. Now, the Republicans can scuffle with each other over who will be their vice-presidential candidate. Yawn. The main event will be the competent and winning Biden-Harris Democratic ticket versus Captain Chaos and his sinking ship, the SS Insurrectionist, which is running out of steam.

Significant here in my view is the weakness of Donald J. Trump. “This race is far from over,” Nikki Haley said Tuesday night. She managed a relatively strong showing against the person who allegedly has a grip on the Republican Party. (Haley received 133,017, or 43.3%, of the vote. Trump got 167,210 for 54.5%). There is a significant number of members of the Grand Old Party who think the party is over for above-the-law King Donald.

A divided party in the primaries historically -- study history, don’t ban it -- has a tough time in the general election. Take Gerald Ford “the Pardon Watergate Nixon and play golf for life” guy who lost in 1976. George H.W. Bush lost the White House in 1992 after Pat Buchanan took 37% in the New Hampshire primary. Bush won the Republican presidential nomination. Clinton defeated him with 370 electoral votes to Bush’s 168, ending three straight terms of Republican control of the presidency. Don’t read my lips here. Listen to the Republican outcry against Trump.

Freedom Message

Biden-Harris and their newly expanded reelection campaign staff of Jennifer O’Malley Dillon and Mike Donilon who just transferred from their White House roles to leadership of the reelection staff are already accelerating the freedom message (https://youtu.be/ChjibtX0UzU) – freedom of choice, freedom to vote, freedom from political violence and chaos. These are the demonstrated policy and positions of Democratic candidates with vast foreign policy experience who can point to a growing economy that is uplifting all. They support and can advance reproductive rights and gun control regulations. They want to make the wealthy two-percenters pay their share of taxes. Biden-Harris addressed climate change and are rebuilding and expanding the infrastructure. They are also bringing Wi-Fi to rural economies, not just cities. Neither has an indictment or conviction on their record.

Biden-Harris beat Trump before. In Iowa roughly as many Republicans in total voted against Trump as voted for him. The same applies to New, err Old Hampshire. Biden-Harris can win again. Let them get on with amplifying the policy and positions that matter to the many Republicans (in name only?) who are unhappy with Trump. “If Donald Trump is our opponent, we can expect vile attacks, endless lies, and massive spending,” the reelection campaign website https://joebiden.com/ says.

“Stand up for our personal freedom. Stand up for the right to vote and our civil rights,” President Biden says in his campaign video.

__________________________________________

TUESDAY 1/23/24

Biden Wins New Hampshire

Although he was not on the ballot, President Biden won New Hampshire’s Democratic primary Tuesday as a write-in with 66,081 votes, or 56.6%, according to The Hill’s Decision Desk HQ. In addition, “Write-In” took another 18,284 votes, or 15.7%.

This would be a good spot to note that Donald J. Trump beat Nikki Haley in the Republican primary by 34,054 votes.

Biden was not on the ballot because his campaign wanted the February 3 South Carolina primary to be first on his party’s calendar, ahead of Iowa as well as New Hampshire. Decision Desk HQ notes that the Biden campaign’s write-in campaign encouraged voters to write in anything indicating the president, including “Joe and Kamala” or even a misspelling like “Bidon.”

Rep. Dean Phillips (D-MN) took second place, with 23,498 votes, or 20.1% and author Marianne Williamson got 4,746 votes, or 4.1% and just ahead of “Other” at 4,192 votes or 3.6.%.

_____
COMMENTS: editors@thehustings.news

Doing the New Hampshire Math

By Todd Lassa

In the month between her 11.3-point loss to Donald J. Trump in New Hampshire and the next GOP primary, Nikki Haley will either (Plan A): Prop up her Quixotic campaign and face likely embarrassment in her home state of South Carolina or (Plan B):“suspend” her campaign and endorse the leader of the Republican Party. There is a small chance she could suspend her campaign and refuse to endorse Trump, which would buck the trend set recently by Sen. Tim Scott (R-SC) and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis.

The morning after her second place showing boosted by crossover votes in the open primary by independents and Democrats, Haley’s campaign says it’s still game-on. For the record, here are final results from New Hampshire, according to the Associated Press:

Donald J. Trump 163,700 votes 54.5%
Nikki Haley 129,646 43.2%

The GOP race is over, Sara Longwell, publisher of The Bullwark and founder of Republicans Against Trump, told NPR’s Morning Edition Wednesday.

On his Truth Social, Trump posted: NIKKI CAME IN LAST, NOT SECOND!

Like New Hampshire, South Carolina’s GOP primary on Saturday, February 24, is open, so Haley could pick up some independent and Democratic voters again. Because the Biden campaign tried to upend the Iowa caucuses and New Hampshire primary, the Democratic primary in South Carolina, which also is open, is on Saturday, February 3.

Super Tuesday is March 5.

If Haley does drop out in the next 10 days, what are the chances some of Trump’s followers might cross over and vote for Rep. Dean Phillips (D-MN) or author Maryanne Williamson?

As we noted before the primary, if Haley does pick Plan B, there is huge pot of super PAC money from the Koch Brothers’ Americans for Prosperity Action committed to her defeat of Donald J. Trump. Where do the Koch Brothers and their money and cause go if she drops out?

And where does the Republican Party go if one of Trump’s criminal indictments makes it to court before November 5 (or more to the point, before the GOP convention in mid-July), or if the Supreme Court allows Colorado, Maine and probably a few other states to remove him from their ballots?

Haley did get nine New Hampshire GOP delegates to Trump’s 12 on Tuesday, according to the AP. Clearly, her campaign figures that’s better than nothing.

_____
COMMENTS: editors@thehustings.news

A Stark Situation

By Stephen Macaulay

In 2020 Joe Biden came in fifth in the New Hampshire primary.

Now he is president. Erm, well, while that seems to have been a fact, it seems as though there are quite a number of people in New Hampshire who think that it is an alternative fact, despite their alleged plain-spoken, clear-eyed Yankeeness.

It is just fake news.

As Donald Trump said to the annual VFW convention held in Kansas City on July 24, 2018: “Don’t believe the crap you see from these people, the fake news. . . . What you’re seeing and what you’re reading is not what’s happening.”

Or, to bring it up to date: Didn’t happen.

Donald Trump received 54.5% of the votes in the New Hampshire primary. Did that really happen?

A Slogan

The New Hampshire slogan, famously, is “Live Free or Die.”

It goes back to General John Stark, New Hampshire’s most famous solider in the American Revolutionary War, the victor of the Battle of Bennington.

The U.S. War of Independence, fought from 1775 to 1793, was in opposition to the British crown, which essentially ran the country (a.k.a., the colonies) from the time the Jamestown colony was established in Virginia. (Sir Walter Raleigh had established the Roanoke Colony in North Carolina in 1585, but mysteriously, by 1590 the colonists had disappeared, just as Donald Trump had predicted the coronavirus would, starting in February 2020 -- he was a bit off, as more than 1 million Americans disappeared from the face of the Earth.)

Donald Trump has said on several occasions that he plans to be a dictator on Day One of his next administration.

Seems like there is a non-trivial number of New Hampshirites whom General John Stark would have no truck with.

After all, he fought against a king, a person with absolute power.

And some 163,700 people in New Hampshire voted for a person who says he wants just that.

Voters So White

According to the U.S. Census Bureau, the white population of New Hampshire is 88.8%. The percentage of Asians, which includes those who are from India, is 3.2%.

Not a whole lot of “diversity.”

Is it any wonder that Donald Trump boorishly attacked Nikki Haley’s ethnicity prior to the New Hampshire primary?

Expectations

Haley received 43.2% of the votes. Some 129,646 people voted for her. No doubt there were more than a rounding error who voted for Haley who are not Republicans but who wanted to vote against Trump.

She exceeded expectations.

But the reputationally ornery New Hampshire Republican party members proved themselves to be as homogenized as those in Iowa.

Good and Bad

There is an aphorism that says “The perfect is the enemy of good.”

We’re not talking phone calls here.

A variant on that is “The bad is better than a loss.”

There are a number of Republicans — both those who are pre-Trump Republicans and those who are MAGA Republicans — who have come out in support of Trump with the rationale that it is better to coalesce around him now rather than to have an actual contest.

Trump avoided all debates, so he didn’t have to go up against anyone there.

And evidently Nikki Haley is getting under his skin sufficiently such that he is having trouble with things like facts. (No, he isn’t running against Obama.)

Those Republicans don’t care. They think that as long as there is someone who is ostensibly a Republican in the White House it will be good for them.

Until he decides that he doesn’t like them. And then it won’t be.

John F. Kelly, retired Marine Corps general and former White House chief of staff during the Trump administration, described Trump to Jake Tapper on CNN October 2, 2023: “A person who admires autocrats and murderous dictators. A person that has nothing but contempt for our democratic institutions, our Constitution, and the rule of law.”

What would General John Stark think about the 163,700 people in New Hampshire who voted for that man?

_____
COMMENTS: editors@thehustings.news

What’s Left

Biden Quotes Haley – GOP presidential candidate Nikki Haley has been trying to make the case that President Biden, 80, and Donald J. Trump, 77, are too old, as their cognitive abilities are on the downswing, to win this year’s election and spend another four years in the White House. But as Trump continues to lead Haley by some 55 points in the polls (see center column news aggregate) the former UN ambassador and South Carolina governor is going after the former president’s cognitive abilities, or lack thereof, including his statement that Haley was in charge of Capitol security on January 6, 2021.

“We offered them 10,000 people” to fend off the insurrectionists, Trump told a rally in New Hampshire, but “Nikki Haley, Nikki Haley, Nikki Haley … Nikki Haley is in charge” of security at the Capitol, and she turned his administration down, he said. Not only has he confused Nikki Haley with former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-CA), he has claimed to have defeated Barack Obama (it was Hilary Clinton) in his first presidential race.

As MSNBC’s Morning Joe noted, Biden’s re-election campaign picked up the easy hit on Trump, posting on X (formerly Twitter); “I don’t agree with Nikki Haley on everything, but we agree on this much: She is not Nancy Pelosi.”

•••

Your civil commentary on these latest news items or recent issues discussed in The Hustings is most welcomed and indeed, encouraged. If you lean left or liberal, click on this column and go to the Comment section of the page. We will post any civil, fact-based opinions in this column whether you are moderate-liberal or progressive.

Or email editors@thehustings.news and indicate in the subject line whether you are liberal or conservative.

No matter your politics, we encourage you to eschew echo chambers and read political news and analysis in the center column and conservative/right-wing commentary in the left column as well as liberal/progressive in this column.

To navigate, scroll up and down each column with the near-track bar. To read earlier posts, scroll down using the track bar on the far right.

_____

Haley v. Trump

The AP has called the New Hampshire Republican primary for Donald J. Trump. But Nikki Haley's campaign says she will not drop out of the GOP presidential nomination race no matter the results. Be sure to read Stephen Macaulay's column calling out Trump's dog-whistle on Haley's ethnic background, "Teach Your Children Well", by clicking on The Gray Area at the top of this page.

TUESDAY 1/23/24

Trump Edges Up -- With 16% of the vote in, Trump has 54.2% of the vote to Haley's 44.9% the AP reports.

Early New Hampshire Returns -- With 8% of the Republican primary vote in, Donald J. Trump leads with 52.8% of the vote, to Nikki Haley's 46.6% of the vote, according to the Associated Press. Though he has already withdrawn from the race, Ron DeSantis nabbed 0.6%.

•••

On to South Carolina -- Nikki Haley will not drop out of the GOP presidential race even if she loses New Hampshire to Donald J. Trump by double-digits, Mark Harris, lead strategist for the pro-Haley super PAC SFA Funds Inc. told reporters at the Manchester expo center Tuesday.

"I think turnout is trending in the direction we need it to be so we're optimistic about tonight," Harris said, per The Washington Post. "But regardless we're on to South Carolina tomorrow morning."

•••

Haley Takes Early Lead – Nikki Haley had a 6-0 lead shortly after midnight Tuesday over Donald J. Trump in the New Hampshire primary. All six registered voters in Dixville Notch voted for the former UN ambassador and South Carolina governor when the town opened its polls briefly, NPR reports. New Hampshire’s 221 towns are required to open polls from 11 a.m. to 7 p.m. at a minimum, though with some flexibility, as with Dixville Notch. Twenty-one names are on the Democratic ballot, none of them “Joe Biden.” The president’s supporters are urging write-ins for him.

__________________________________________

MONDAY 1/22/24

Trump Up – Former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley is ahead of Ron DeSantis in national polls, but Donald J. Trump remains far ahead, according to a national poll averaging by Decision Desk HQ/The Hill. Trump has 67% and Haley, who as of this writing is still in the race, has 12%, one point ahead of DeSantis, who is not.

•••

Haley’s Comet – New Hampshire is the never-Trump traditional Republicans’ one and only shot, with Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis now officially out of the GOP presidential race and Nikki Haley polling second behind the former president. Like South Carolina Sen. Tim Scott and uber-libertarian entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy, DeSantis apparently wants a shot at a post of some sort in a second Trump term and is backing his former rival. Apparently, the three former challengers have concluded it’s best to hunker down from inside an authoritarian government rather than from the outside.

Haley’s droll comment after DeSantis’ withdrawal: “May the best woman win,” per The New York Times.

Haley probably will need first place in New Hampshire in order to stay in the race. Her best hope is that a sufficient number of independents and Democrats vote Republican in the primary, which they are allowed to do in the Granite State.

Koch refreshes?: The Koch Brothers early last year vowed to use their super-PAC to stop Trump, and have since put all their campaign money behind Haley. What happens if/when she has to suspend her campaign?

--Compiled and edited by Todd Lassa

_____

What’s Right

Pundit-at-large Stephen Macaulay makes a conservative never-Trumper argument for why Donald J. Trump’s big win in the Iowa caucuses shouldn’t matter so much. Scroll down using the trackbar at the far right to read his commentary and Ken Zino’s left-column take.

Use the scroll bar at the near right to read how you can comment on Macaulay’s commentary, Zino’s commentary or (preferably, for the sake of balance) both.

Be sure to read, also, Macaulay’s take on Trump’s attacks on his UN ambassador, Nikki Haley’s birth name and ethnic background in “Teach Your Children Well” in The Gray Area. Click on the tab above to read it.

•••

Your civil commentary on these latest news items or recent issues discussed in The Hustings is most welcomed and indeed, encouraged. If you lean right or conservative, click on this column and go to the Comment section of the page. We will post any civil, fact-based opinions in this column whether you are pro-MAGA or never Trump.

Or email editors@thehustings.news and indicate in the subject line whether you are conservative or liberal.

No matter your politics, we encourage you to eschew echo chambers and read political news and analysis in the center column and liberal/progressive commentary in the left column as well as conservative/right-wing commentary in this column.

To navigate, scroll up and down each column with the near-track bar. To read earlier posts, scroll down using the track bar on the far right.

_____

Musings On the Iowa Two-Percenters

By Ken Zino

Two percent. That’s the number of Iowa electors as a percentage of the total delegates to the 2024 Republican National Convention where the presidential candidate and vice-presidential candidates will be selected or rejected. With the Iowa results fresh-frozen yesterday, here’s a bird’s eye view of (apologies to Brooklyn born Clarence B, the founder of what became General Foods) the Iowa Republican Caucuses.

The vote in Iowa on Monday may or may not signify something new. Consider some history that is a miniscule part of all the millennia of history studies that Republicans want to ban. Ted Cruz, Rick Santorum and Mike Huckabee were the last three winners of the Iowa Caucuses. I’m still waiting for any of them to become a presidential candidate. Advice to followers of the often-breathless coverage of such non-events. Don’t hold your breath waiting for Republican cornfield crownees to run, unless it’s from a congressional committee, grand jury or court.

This brings us to Mr. Trump’s win in Iowa. If there was any doubt about his grip on the base of the basest in the Republican party in a voter’s mind, it shouldn’t require electro-shock therapy now to understand the obvious. Trump is going to be the Republican candidate for president. He held sway among rural Iowa caucus voters who already think he should be president because the election was “stolen.” Christion nationalism is the latest name for white fascism and supremacy.

Yes, Donald Trump was indicted four times. And yet, Trump appears to have a fundraising advantage so far. Polls are showing that Trump and President Biden are roughly tied. But consider the well-timed strategic broadcast leak on MSNBC Sunday with former White House insider Jen Psaki that played under the guise of an interview with Biden’s re-election campaign staff. It is more than likely that aside from political nerds, the potential voters who will decide the 2024 Presidential race are not paying any attention to the race yet. Moreover, Trump’s Republican opposition in Iowa didn’t force him to clarify his position on any of the issues that will be crucial in swing states.

Now is the is the time for Biden and his campaign staff to play up the policy and positions of the president. The incumbent with vast foreign policy experience is grappling with Gaza. He can point to a great, growing economy that is uplifting all here and is in far better shape than the post-pandemic economy in the rest of the world. He supports reproductive rights and gun control regulations. He wants to make the wealthy two-percenters pay their share of taxes. He has demonstrated ability to address climate change and fix the infrastructure, including bringing Wi-Fi to rural economies and he has no indictments or convictions on his record.

Biden has beaten Trump before. The president made a mockery of the “Red Wave” in the midterms.

In Iowa, roughly as many Republicans in total voted against Trump as voted for him.

Biden needs to address younger voters’ concerns in way they can relate to. Biden is pro-democracy. His party needs to be actively talking about this non-stop. Biden can win again. Let’s get on with clarifying the policy and positions that matter.

__________________________________________________

What Does Iowa Mean?

Read the right column for pundit-at-large Stephen Macaulay’s take on the Iowa Republican Caucus and then let us know what you think, with an e-mail to editors@thehustings.news.

Whether you are liberal, never-Trumper conservative or pro-Trump conservative, The Hustings values your civilly stated Comments. Please indicate in the subject line whether you identify as left/liberal or right/conservative, or Democrat or Republican. Independents are welcome as well, but please tell us whether your comments should be in the left or right column.

_____

…meanwhile…

FRIDAY 1/19/24

The Can is Kicked … to March 1 for some agencies. To March 8 for others. Will Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) last that long?

President Biden is expected to sign the latest continuing resolution, third in this fiscal year, as soon as it hits his Oval Office desk, The Guardian reports. Funding for some agencies would have expired 12:01 a.m. Saturday.

“Avoiding a shutdown is very good news for the country, for our veterans, for parents and children, and for farmers and small businesses – all of whom would have felt the sting had the government shut down,” said Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY).

But is it good for Johnson’s future?

The Senate vote was 77-18, according to Punchbowl News, which reports that members of the House Freedom Caucus attempted to get the speaker to put the bill through rules and amend it with H.R., the MAGA-esque U.S. border bill Johnson had previously tied to passage of continued funding for Ukraine’s fight against Russia.

Johnson’s problem is that erstwhile House Republican allies voted against him (Punchbowl News, again). They include Rep. Elise Stefanik (NY), third-ranking GOP House member and a leading contender to become Donald J. Trump’s running mate, and; Jodey Arrington (Budget chair from TX), Mike Bost (Veteran Affairs chair, TX), Mike Gallagher (China Select Committee chair, WI), Mark Green (Homeland Security chair, TN), Mike Guest (Ethics chair, MS), Jim Jordan (Judiciary chair, OH), Brian Steil (administration chair, WI), Bruce Westerman (Natural Resources chair, AR) and Roger Williams (Small Business chair, TX).

•••

Willis Quagmire – Fani Willis, the Fulton County, Georgia district attorney who has mounted what many pundits consider the strongest of three 2020 election interference cases against Donald J. Trump, has accused Joycelyn Wade, wife of one of her top deputies, of using the Wades’ divorce case to harass and damage the DA’s reputation and obstruct the election interference investigation (The Atlanta Journal-Constitution). Willis’ attorney has filed a motion to block a subpoena for the DA to give a pretrial deposition in the divorce case filed by Joycelyn Wade against Nathan Wade.

Earlier in January, Ashleigh Merchant, attorney for Trump co-defendant Mike Roman, in a court filing contended without evidence that Willis is having an improper, romantic relationship with Nathan Wade and that the DA has benefited financially from it, with Willis and Wade taking “lavish” vacations with money Wade made as special prosecutor.

At the very least, the allegations can build skepticism of Willis’ case, built on months of a grand jury investigation. At most, the allegations could torpedo the one election interference case against Trump that would not be covered by a pardon if he becomes president next January.

--TL

__________________________________________

THURSDAY 1/18/24

Squeezing Johnson – President Biden and congressional Republican leaders as well as Democratic leaders are “ramping up pressure” on Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) to accept a deal with Ukraine funding and a border security package, The Hill reported Wednesday following the White House confab that included Avril Haines, director of national intelligence, and national security advisor Jake Sullivan.

The White House has pointed to negotiations with Senate Republicans led by James Lankford (R-OK) as evidence of progress in the face of hardline MAGA oppo to a compromise, according to CQ Roll Call. But the GOP’s House majority is about to become thinnest in history, with just one vote to spare.

“I told the president what I had been saying for many months, and that is we must (have) change at the border, substantive policy change,” Johnson said.

“There was remarkable consensus in that room,” said Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY). “Just about every person in that room talked about the importance of adding Ukraine. And everyone in the room also talked about that we had to do something about the border.” (Roll Call again.)

Some lawmakers already have said they’re open to pulling a McCarthy on Johnson, according to Punchbowl News Thursday. The speaker had said in November he would not pass any more continuing resolutions, and now he will have to pass one before the end of the week. Republican hardliners also are angry he is pushing a deal with just $16 billion in cuts.

Meanwhile, passing a CR on the federal budget will leave Johnson (assuming he still is speaker) seven days in March to fund the entire government, PN notes.

--TL

__________________________________________

WEDNESDAY 1/17/24

White House Rumble – The Big Four from Capitol Hill plan a White House confab with President Biden Wednesday so he could pitch them on the importance of aid to Ukraine and his national security supplemental, two days before a potential government shutdown as part of the federal budget becomes due. Punchbowl News gives the meeting little chance of success.

The Big Four are Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) and Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY), and House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) and Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-NY). Last week, Mitchell urged Republican senators to support a border deal being negotiated between Sen. James Lankford (R-OK) and Democrats. But PN says Johnson will never pass such a Senate compromise. “True border security” will only come with Donald J. Trump back in the White House, Johnson has told House Republicans.

Told’ja so: This jibes with the scenario we laid out a couple of weeks ago; That Johnson can pass the budget his predecessor as speaker, Kevin McCarthy (R-CA), reached with Democrats last year and yet avoid McCarthy’s ultimate fate by promising a more Trumpian outcome next year if the GOP has such success this November. However, Sen. Minority Whip John Thune (R-SD) told Punchbowl News a Trumpian border policy would never get past a filibuster even if Republicans gain enough seats for a majority.

•••

Here’s a Compromise – Meanwhile, Congress on Tuesday released a $78 billion compromise that features $33 billion to partly extend a major expansion of the child tax credit made popular by the 2021 pandemic aid law, plus $33 billion to reinstate a set of expired business tax benefits, The New York Times reports. Both would extend through 2025.

Though the “rare bipartisan agreement” is the product of House Ways & Means Committee chair Jason Smith (R-MO) and Senate Finance Committee chair Ron Wyden (D-OR), it is given scant chance of passage by both chambers.

•••

Why DeSantis is Still In It – Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis beat expectations with his 21% from the Iowa Republican Caucuses, which “can create national momentum,” FiveThirtyEight says Wednesday. DeSantis’ number from Monday night was five points above his final polling average, equal to Sen. Ted Cruz’s (R-TX) Iowa bump in 2016. It worked better for John Kerry, who was 14 points above his final polling average in 2004, according to the site.

Kerry, of course, went on to win the ’04 Democratic nomination and then lose to George W. Bush. Bush’s father was 19.5 points above his final poll average in 1980 (he lost the GOP nomination to Ronald Reagan). Rev. Pat Robertson was 13.1 points above his polling average in the 1988 GOP caucuses before he lost the nomination to George H.W. Bush.

Haley’s comet?: Former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley’s New Hampshire polling average is about 30% to Trump’s 43.4%, according to FiveThirtyEight, with DeSantis at roughly 6%. But Trump is expected to get most, if not all, of Vivek Ramaswamy’s 5%, as he suspended his campaign after Iowa.

--Compiled and edited by Todd Lassa

__________________________________________

DeSantis Edges Haley for Second in Iowa

TUESDAY 1/16/24

By Todd Lassa

It’s on to New Hampshire after Donald J. Trump’s inevitable trouncing of Ron DeSantis and Nikki Haley, who would have come within 10.7 points of the former president in Monday’s Iowa caucuses, had they been one candidate. The caucuses did manage to weed out Trumpian entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy, who has suspended his campaign as he has apparently grown weary of spending his own money to convince young voters he is their Trump.

Ryan Binkley, who co-founded Texas-based Create Church with his wife in 2014, according to Wikipedia, grabbed about 1% of the Iowa vote. No, we haven’t heard of him, either.

For the record, here are the Iowa caucus vote totals, according to the Associated Press:

•Trump 56,260 51.0%

•DeSantis 23,420 21.2%

•Haley 21,085 19.1%

With that, ex-President Trump earns 20 of 40 Iowa delegates to the GOP convention in Milwaukee this coming summer. Florida Gov. DeSantis earns 8 delegates and former South Carolina Gov. Haley earns 7 delegates.

Ramaswamy grabbed 8%, which otherwise would have gone to Trump, not DeSantis nor Haley.

Anti-Trump Republican pollster Frank Luntz told NPR’s Morning Edition Tuesday he attended eight caucuses in one school auditorium in Iowa, which confirmed to him “how passionate and determined Trump voters are.” … The message keeping that passion and determination alive is that Trump is telling his supporters “They want to attack you, and I’m standing in their way.”

A much-less religious, less socially conservative New Hampshire holds its primary next week. Haley hopes to beat Trump, or at least come in a close second. Such a result won’t likely force DeSantis out of the race, as he has high hopes for the primary after that, in South Carolina, Haley’s home state.

If DeSantis beats Haley for second place there, will she drop out? Stay tuned.

_____
COMMENTS: editors@thehustings.news

American Gothic

By Stephen Macaulay

There are approximately 3.2 million people who live in Iowa. The population of Los Angeles is bigger. The population density in Iowa is 57.1 people per square mile. In LA its 8,304.2. Of course, Los Angeles measure 469.69 square miles while Iowa is 55,853.42 square miles, so there’s more room to spread out. Of the people in Iowa, 89.8% are white. In LA it is 41.2%.

This is not to say that Los Angeles is America.

But arguably Iowa is closer to the other 49 states than you might think.

As in, for the U.S. as a whole, the population density is 93.8 people, which is a whole lot closer to 57.1 than it is to 8,304.2. What’s more, the percentage of those who simply checked the box next to “White” on the U.S. Census Bureau form is 75.5%, which means a delta of 14.3% with Iowa and 34.3% with LA.

And while some liberal commentators and pundits would like us to believe that plenty of people in Iowa are hicks — as in awkward provincial people, not smooth urban sophisticates, as they fancy themselves — 93% of those in Iowa are high school graduates or higher. In LA the number is 78.7%. It is 89.1% for the U.S. as a whole.

Again, Iowa comes closer to the norm than LA in that context.

And a political fun fact: U.S. presidents were born in a total 21 states. Iowa is one of them. It gave us Herbert Hoover.

California was the birthplace of one president, too: Richard Nixon.

But one of the things that is different about Iowa goes back to that comparatively low population density. A large percentage of its voters are rural, not suburban, and certainly not urban. They have a different perspective on things than those in large cities and its surroundings.

States like Kansas, Nebraska and North Dakota have low population densities.

States like New Jersey, Connecticut and Massachusetts have high population densities.

Clearly, that makes a difference in how people vote.

Is it a surprise that Trump dominated in Iowa?

Nope.

Odds are there is nothing that is going to happen that will derail the Trump train.

As Newton’s first law has it, a body in motion stays in motion unless a force acts against it and those two aren’t notable forces.

DeSantis and Haley are largely things that allow reporters to write about something else. They aren’t forces with serious momentum.

Going back to point-of-view, it is different in Cedar Rapids than Stamford, more pragmatic.

The Dem’s messaging about “an existential threat to freedom and democracy” plays bettter in New Haven than in Waterloo.

Iowa is the leading corn producing state in the country and while the word “corny” comes to mind with regard to “Bidenomics,” some people in Iowa would probably not use their state’s agricultural bounty in vain and simply consider it to be “bullshit.”

While it may seem absurd that a rich (well, perceived so) real estate businessman from New York City and now a tony part of Florida plays well in Iowa, it is the fact that he is being plain-spoken that undoubtedly resonates.

If Biden wants to win among large numbers of people who are more akin to the ethos of Middle America rather than the Coasts, then he basically has to become more fundamental:

“We need roads and bridges. I got the legislation that is making that happen. He kept announcing ‘infrastructure initiatives’ that was simply hot air.”
“We need more manufacturing in America. And were getting them. Remember the jobs at the Indianapolis Carrier plant that he ‘saved’? It simply cost a whole lot of tax-payer money and didn’t save a hell of a lot of jobs.”
“We need to keep politicians within check. He’s actually talking about running things the way he wants to, not necessarily the way you want. That’s not what America is about.”

Iowa’s results are inevitable. And they point to something far larger than what they’re talking about on MSNBC.

____)_
COMMENTS: editors@thehustings.news

The Courts Should Uphold the Constitution

By Ken Zino

Let me start by saying that all roads on the journey to the 2024 election lead toward the politicized U.S. Supreme Court. The State of Colorado has ruled that Mr. Trump should be taken off the 2024 Republican primary ballot because he is an insurrectionist. Four Republicans and two independents in the state brought the challenge. Colorado ruled for the ballot removal after a trial that based on evidence presented by eight witnesses -- and no defense from Trump himself -- that he provoked a violent uprising after losing the 2020 election.

Those actions occurred before and after the election, and in fact continue to this day. Trump defense lawyer Scott Gessler said the connections the plaintiffs had drawn between Mr. Trump and groups such as the Proud Boys were incorrect because the insurrectionists had deluded themselves into thinking Trump was speaking to them. He said this was a political question. Well, it is in the sense that politics that led to the Civil War resulted in a constitutional amendment to prevent insurrectionists or their abettors from ever holding office again.

Section 3 of the 14th Amendment: “No person shall be a Senator or Representative in Congress, or elector of President and Vice-President, or hold any office, civil or military, under the United States, or under any State, who, having previously taken an oath, as a member of Congress, or as an officer of the United States, or as a member of any State legislature, or as an executive or judicial officer of any State, to support the Constitution of the United States, shall have engaged in insurrection or rebellion against the same, or given aid or comfort to the enemies thereof. But Congress may by a vote of two-thirds of each House, remove such disability.”

This will end up in the Supreme Court because this ballot eligibility question has not happened since the aftermath of our Civil War that led to the amendment. The question has therefore never been legally vetted. There are challenges to Trump ‘s ballot eligibility in dozens of states. Arguments that he is immune because he was president –- the equivalent of the divine right of kings –- are laughable. We fought The Revolution over such thinking and then wrote the Constitution to say that we will be governed differently. See the Federalist Papers. No president or any inhabitant of the United States is immune from or above the law.

Tuesday’s hearing in Washington before a three-judge panel of the U.S. Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit in my view settles the argument. Trump’s lawyer D. John Sauer argued Trump should not be prosecuted for actions he took while in the White House, Sauer claimed. This was a so-called qualified “yes” after he repeatedly tried to duck the central issue; Could a president assassinate a political rival using the military (one judge chose the Navy SEALS as the example) and be shielded from prosecution unless the Senate first convicted him at an impeachment proceeding? Suppose the president had all the members of opposing political views killed? No impeachment is possible. Absurd on the face of it and were not the issue so serious to a constitutional democracy, laughable.

Moreover, Judge Karen L. Henderson, the only Republican appointee, dismissed Trump’s argument that his efforts to overturn his loss to the current president, Joe Biden, is immune from prosecution because presidents have a constitutional duty to ensure that election laws are upheld. “I think it’s paradoxical to say that his constitutional duty to take care that the laws be faithfully executed allows him to violate the criminal law,” Judge Henderson said. We await the final ruling.

In my own state of Michigan, Trump remains on the primary ballot (voting is February 27) after the highest Michigan court ruled that a party can put anyone it wants on the ballot. Michigan’s secretary of state, Jocelyn Benson noted in a statement that the state’s court had correctly ruled that she lacked the authority to prevent Mr. Trump from appearing on the primary ballot. However, Benson said the U.S. Supreme Court should take up the matter. “I continue to hope they do this sooner rather than later to ensure that we can move forward into 2024’s election season focused on ensuring all voters are fully informed and universally engaged in deciding the issues at stake,” the statement said. The ruling is here.

“We are disappointed by the Michigan Supreme Court’s decision,” said Ron Fein, legal director of Free Speech for People, an attorney for the plaintiffs. “The ruling conflicts with longstanding U.S. Supreme Court precedent that makes clear that when political parties use the election machinery of the state to select, via the primary process, their candidates for the general election, they must comply with all constitutional requirements in that process. However, the Michigan Supreme Court did not rule out that the question of Donald Trump’s disqualification for engaging in insurrection against the U.S. Constitution may be resolved at a later stage. The decision isn’t binding on any court outside Michigan and we continue our current and planned legal actions in other states to enforce Section 3 of the Fourteenth Amendment against Donald Trump.”

Michigan Justice Elizabeth M. Welch said that Colorado state law made clear that political parties could only put forward “qualified” candidates in a primary presidential ballot. Michigan election law includes no such requirement, she wrote. Michigan’s secretary of state “lacks the legal authority to remove a legally ineligible candidate from the ballot once their name has been put forward by a political party,” Justice Welch said.

Trump’s strategy is clear to me. Delay legal actions against him until after the election, which he thinks he can win, then misuse his power as president to make all the legal cases go away. On to the Supreme Court…

COMMENTS: editors@thehustings.news — please indicate your left- or right-leanings in the subject line.