THU 11/4/21
•Death toll from the coronavirus has surpassed 750,000 in the U.S., WaPo reports. The majority of fatalities were unvaccinated, though Mayor-elect Eric Adams, says he plans to “revisit’ New York City’s controversial vaccine mandate. Meanwhile, the vaccine mandate for companies with at least 100 employees is set to take effect on January 4.
•Incumbent Phil Murphy narrowly edged Republican challenger Jack Ciatterelli in Tuesday’s New Jersey gubernatorial race, with the count going well into Wednesday. Murphy, who becomes the first Democrat to win re-election for the state’s governor since 1977, won by about 19,000 out of 2.4 million votes (WSJ).
•What does Glenn Youngkin’s victory in the Virginia governor’s race mean for the Democratic Party and Trump’s GOP? Read our debate with Stephen Macaulay and Bryan Williams, later today on this page.
•How about an anti-trust investigation of the entertainment industry? Read Jim McCraw’s commentary in Inquiry.
House Vote on Social Safety Net Bill by End of Week (Again?) – Speaker Nancy Pelosi has restored a provision for four weeks of paid family leave to the social infrastructure/safety net bill, based on President Biden’s Build Back Better plan – the big, $1.75-trillion bill. The full bill could be brought for a vote by the House of Representatives as early as today. Rep. Pramila Jayapal, D-WA, said on NPR’s Morning Edition that the House’s progressive caucus she leads is ready to forward the bill along with the $1.2-trillion bipartisan infrastructure bill.
This means bipartisan infrastructure would move to Biden’s desk for signing while the social infrastructure bill moves to the Senate without assurance from Sens. Joe Manchin III, D-WV, and Krysten Sinema, D-AZ, that they will provide the necessary votes to pass it. More likely the bill will linger in the Senate for mark-up until it is returned to the House for final approval.
Note: The wake-up buzzer has been ringing on delivering the bipartisan infrastructure bill for weeks now, but Tuesday’s statewide Virginia election victories for Republicans seems to have alerted Democrats that they have to make progress. If bipartisan infrastructure moves forward this month, it would bode well for raising the debt ceiling by its December 3 deadline and then Democrats have until next year’s midterm primaries, at least, to figure out Build Back Better.
How quickly would Build Back Better move forward after a House vote? Manchin provided a preview Wednesday, saying the “unbelievable” GOP victories in Virginia’s elections validates his concerns about inflation and pushing the $1.75-trillion in federal spending bill too quickly through Congress (The Hill). One wonders, of course, whether inflation had anything to do with the Republicans’ victories in Virginia or if this is simply Manchin making claims about things that may not be, um, accurate.
•••
Israel Passes Budget — After Three Years — As The Washington Post reports: “Exhausted lawmakers whooped and hugged following the final passage of massive funding plan by a two-vote margin at 5:30 a.m.” It is the first budget that the Israeli government has agreed to since 2018. What made the passage all the more important to Naftali Bennet, prime minister, is that there was a plan in place that would have dissolved the coalition government he heads on November 14 were this not to occur.
Note: This can’t make former PM Benjamin Netanyahu happy, as he was undoubtedly hoping he’d have a chance to get back into office.
And one thinks that perhaps something like the dissolution clause might be helpful for Democrats in Washington. . . .
•••
Federal Reserve Dials Down Economy Stimulus – The Federal Reserve is phasing out a bond buyback program launched at the beginning of the coronavirus pandemic last year to stimulate the economy during the shutdown, The Wall Street Journalreports. The Fed has gone from buying back $120 billion in bonds per month during the pandemic to $15 billion per month for November and December.
Note: The bond buyback “tapering” sets up the Fed to begin raising interest rates early next year in order to cool down inflation, which is expected to heat up as supply chains get un-stuck and in case the $17.5-trillion social infrastructure bill gets passed and does what Sen. Manchin fears.
“We need to act in case it becomes necessary to do so,” Fed Chairman Jerome Powell (who is expected to be reappointed by President Biden when his current term expires in February) said in a press conference.
•••
SCOTUS Majority Spells Trouble for New York Gun Law – The U.S. Supreme Court’s conservative majority appears sympathetic to plaintiffs in a case that would strike down a New York State law that requires citizens who want to carry a concealed firearm to show “proper cause” for a license, according to SCOTUSblog.
“But the justices’ eventual ruling might be a narrow one focused on New York law (and others like it),” Amy Howe writes in her analysis of two hours of oral arguments before SCOTUS, Wednesday, in New York State Rifle & Pistol Association v. Bruen. The court, Howe continues, would save questions of the right to carry a concealed firearm by the Second Amendment for a later case. In requiring “proper cause,” the New York law requires applicants to prove the need to defend themselves, rather than simply to protect themselves or property.
•••
Single Black Juror in Arbery Murder Trial – A single Black man is in the jury of 16 in the trial of Greg McMichael, Travis McMichael and William “Roddie” Bryan for the murder of Ahmaud Arbery in Brunswick, Georgia. “Sparks flew” when prosecutors accused defense attorneys of striking a disproportionate number of jurors because of their race, The Atlanta Journal-Constitution reports. The three defendants, all white men, are accused of shooting Arbery, who was Black, as he was out for a jog in their suburban neighborhood.
The 16-person jury panel includes 15 white jurors and one Black man. Twelve will serve on the trial, with the four others as alternatives. The initial pool consisted of 36 white, and 12 Black individuals. Prosecutors accused defense attorneys of using their allotted strikes to eliminate 11 of the 12 Black pool members.
Note: Black people make up one-quarter of Glynn County’s population, where the shooting occurred and the trial is being held, NPR says. That’s equal to the percentage of Black people in the initial jury pool, though the trial jury and alternatives selected is only 1/16 Black.
•••
No Laws Broken in Drone Attack – No laws were broken in an August 29 drone attack in Kabul, Afghanistan, that killed 10 civilians, seven of them children, the U.S. Air Force’s inspector general said, according to Roll Call.
“I didn’t find violations of the law or of the law of war,” Lt. Gen. Sami Said told reporters Wednesday. The Defense Department’s classified investigation of the drone attack, which occurred days after a suicide bombing at Hamid Karzai International Airport where U.S. troops were evacuating Americans and Afghanis who helped in the 20-year war effort as the Taliban was re-taking the country reviewed data and intelligence used by the Air Force team that conducted the strike.
--Edited by Todd Lassa and Gary S. Vasilash
_____________________________________
WEDNESDAY, NOVEMBER 3, 2021
•The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention has approved the Pfizer-BioNTech COVID-19 vaccine for children aged 5 to 11.
•Russia has left 90,000 troops deployed near the Ukrainian border, Ukraine’s defense ministry says, after having completed military exercises (The Hill).
•The Supreme Court hears arguments today in a major Second Amendment case. The question is to what extent Americans have the right to carry and conceal loaded firearms restricted by New York City laws (WaPo).
Off-Year Elections Lean Red – In a likely harbinger for the November 2022 midterm elections, conservative Republicans won the most closely watched elections, including Virginia gubernatorial candidate Glenn Youngkin. A roundup of the major elections:
•Virginia: Republican Glenn Youngkin won 50.7% of the vote to Democrat Terry McAuliffe’s 48.6%. Republican Winsome Sears won the lieutenant governor’s seat and will serve as the tie-breaking vote in the state’s House of Delegates, where the GOP gained two seats for a 45-45 split. Republican Jason Miyares will be the next attorney general in a state that had gone deep blue the last decade. (The Washington Post)
Note: Youngkin already was gaining in the polls on McAuliffe, former governor in the commonwealth where incumbents cannot run for a second consecutive term, when the Democrat said in a debate, “I don’t think parents should be telling schools what they should teach.” Youngkin’s campaign pounded McAuliffe on the statement and tied it to the issue of critical race theory, a college-level study not taught in Virginia schools. The Youngkin campaign also was successful in portraying the former executive for The Carlyle Group as a fiscal conservative in line with Donald Trump on tax cut issues.
•New Jersey: The New York Times is calling the New Jersey gubernatorial race “too close to call.” By late morning Wednesday, incumbent Democrat Phil Murphy took a thin lead over Republican Jack Ciattarelli, a former state legislator, with 90% of the vote counted.
Note: This could be another disappointment for Democrats, who were expecting Murphy to become the party’s first incumbent Democratic New Jersey governor [CD1] to win re-election since 1977.
•Minneapolis: Voters rejected by a 12-point margin a proposal to replace the Minneapolis Police Department with a public safety agency to be determined by the city council (Star Tribune). Mayor Jacob Frey had a “commanding lead” in his re-election, and another charter amendment shifting certain powers to the mayor from the city council also was approved.
Note: This is the latest victim of the misguidedly named “defund the police” movement. The vote came nearly 18 months after Derek Chauvin was video-recorded choking George Floyd to death.
•Ohio: Shontel Brown easily won a special election for the 11th Congressional District seat vacated by President Biden’s Housing secretary, Marcia Fudge, Newsweek reports. She defeated Republican Laverne Gore for the seat covering deep-blue Cleveland but must run for re-election next November and already has several challengers for the Democratic primary. In the race to replace 15th District Rep. Steve Sivers, a Republican who retired in May to run the Ohio Chamber of Commerce, coal lobbyist and Trump acolyte Mike Carey defeated Democratic state Rep. Allison Russo, 59-41, Roll Call reports.
•New York Mayor: Former police captain Eric Adams, Democrat, defeated Guardian Angels founder Curtis Sliwa, Republican, for New York City mayor 57% to 28%, according to the New York Post. Adams becomes only the second Black mayor in the city’s history.
•Boston Mayor: Michelle Wu, the 36-year-old daughter of Taiwanese immigrants, becomes Boston’s first elected mayor who is not a white male, The Boston Globe reports. With an “unabashedly progressive agenda,” Wu easily defeated the more moderate Annissa Essaibi George.
•••
Trump Being Sued by Pennsylvania Voting Machine Custodian — Donald Trump, Rudolph Giuliani and other Trump advisors are being sued in Philadelphia County court by James Savage, the voting machine warehouse custodian in Delaware County for slandering him, Politico reports. It cites J. Conor Corcoran, Savage’s attorney, as saying, “Simply put, Mr. Savage’s physical safety, and his reputation, were acceptable collateral damage for the wicked intentions of the Defendants herein, executed during their lubricious attempt to question the legitimacy of President Joseph Biden’s win in Pennsylvania.” The charges in the suit include defamation and civil conspiracy.
Note: Seems like Team Trump will be facing an ever-increasing number of lawsuits.
--Edited by Todd Lassa, Gary S. Vasilash and Charles Dervarics
TUESDAY, NOVEMBER 2, 2021
•Beside the closely watched Virginia state elections, in particular the gubernatorial contest between Democrat Terry McAuliffe and Republican Glenn Youngkin, we’re keeping an eye on the New Jersey gubernatorial race, Pennsylvania Supreme Court and mayoral elections in New York City, Atlanta, Boston, Minneapolis, Seattle and Buffalo, New York.
UN COP26 Climate Change Progress? – Nations participating in the United Nations COP26 climate change summit in Glasgow, Scotland, have agreed to “end deforestation” by 2030, including in Brazil, China, Colombia, the Congo, Indonesia and the U.S., with more than $19 billion in public and private funds pledged for the plan, the Associated Press reports. It should be noted, AP says, that similar promises have been broken in the past.
Speaking at COP26 today, President Biden unveiled a plan to reduce methane emissions globally 30% by 2030. His plan targets existing oil and gas wells in the U.S. rather than concentrate on new ones.
Britain’s Prime Minister Boris Johnson called global warming “a doomsday device” strapped to humanity.
India Prime Minister Narenda Modi on Monday set his country’s zero carbon emissions target date at 2070, which is 20 years later than the target set by most other countries. But Modi asserted that India is the only nation delivering on the “letter and spirit” of the UN summit tackling climate change, Business Standard, an English language Indian newspaper reports.
Note: As world leaders – notably with China’s Xi Jinping and Russia’s Vladimir Putin having been absent – fly home from Glasgow Tuesday, climate change activists have criticized COP26 as yet another set of promises to be unkept, as global warming has gone from “it’s almost here, we must do something,” to “it is here, let’s do something.”
•••
Details: EPA’s Proposed Methane Cuts — The U. S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) announced its proposal for new restrictions on the reduction of methane emissions, in connection with President Biden’s speech at the COP26 UN climate change summit. These emissions are largely related to leaks in the oil and natural gas industry. Michael S. Regan, EPA administrator, said of the plan which would be a rule within the Clean Air Act, “With this historic action, EPA is addressing existing sources from the oil and natural gas industry nationwide, in addition to updating rules for new sources, to ensure robust and lasting cuts in pollution across the country.”
Note: While Regan’s pronouncement sounds bold and such a reduction in methane emissions is beneficial, there are a few things to keep in mind, not the least of which is that this is a proposal, not a done deal.
Second, according to the EPA, “The proposed rule would reduce 41 million tons of methane emissions from 2023 to 2035, the equivalent of 920 million metric tons of carbon dioxide. That’s more than the amount of carbon dioxide emitted from all U.S. passenger cars and commercial aircraft in 2019.” In other words, the reduction over a 12-year period would be approximately equal to the amount of carbon dioxide (the gas associated with the “zero carbon” claims you often hear from companies and countries) produced in a year.
•••
Census May Have Missed 1.5 Million, Study Finds – The 2020 U.S. Census may have missed more than 1.5 million citizens, the Urban Institute estimates in a new study, enough to cost New York State a congressional seat that went to Minnesota (per Roll Call). The report by the non-partisan research organization says the U.S. Census Bureau double-counted some white people and missed people of color, renters and young children. It was hampered by the coronavirus pandemic and the Trump administration, whose decisions include shutting off the count early, without follow-up.
The resulting Census count lost seats in the House of Representatives in California, the Northeast and the Midwest. Roll Callnotes that Texas may have lost $247 million and Florida $88 million in 2021 Medicaid funds.
Note: This report opens at least two questions. 1.) How much of this was intentional from the Trump administration’s Census count restrictions? 2.) Can anything be done, short of waiting for 2030? Expect lawsuits from states.
•••
Manchin Balks on Social Infrastructure Again; Progs Hopeful – If anyone believed Joe Manchin III would hand President Biden a much-needed victory on climate change while in Glasgow yesterday and today, the West Virginia senator brought everyone back to Earth with his vow to not vote on the $1.75-trillion Build Back Better social infrastructure reconciliation bill he helped craft until progressives pass the $1.2 trillion bipartisan infrastructure bill.
Manchin said Monday he would not bow to his party’s pressure to support the social spending bill and its “shell games” and “budget gimmicks,” and criticized the House of Representatives’ delay on the bipartisan infrastructure bill; “it’s time to vote.” (Politico)
Other Democrats put happy faces on Manchin’s latest evocation of his demands. “We intend to pass both bills,” Progressive Caucus Chair Rep. Pramila Jayapal said Monday night. (RealClear Politics).
Note: It has been long too late for Democratic Virginia gubernatorial candidate Terry McAuliffe to build enthusiasm from the Democrats’ budget bill, as he has lost a lot of momentum to his Republican opponent and Trump-endorsed candidate Glenn Youngkin. But Jayapal is trying to call Manchin’s latest bluff. Is she ready to foster both bills through the House without commitment for social infrastructure from the Senate? Uh, nah.
--Edited by Todd Lassa, Gary S. Vasilash and Charles Dervarics
____________________________________
MONDAY, NOVEMBER 1, 2021
•The Supreme Court hears arguments today from the Biden administration and by abortion providers in their effort to strike down Texas S.B. 8, which relies on private individuals to enforce the law. It restricts most abortions after the sixth week of pregnancy.
•The United Nations’ two-day COP26 climate conference has begun in Glasgow, Scotland, without China and Russia. World leaders from the G-20 industrialized nations met over the weekend without a specific deal on emission cuts, WSJ reports.
•Jury selection begins today in Kenosha, Wisconsin, for the trial of Kyle Rittenhouse, who is accused of shooting three protesters after police shot a Black resident last summer. Rittenhouse, who was 17 at the time and drove to Kenosha from nearby Antioch, Illinois, will claim self-defense, according to his attorneys.
Closing in on Budget Reconciliation Deal? – Democrats in the Senate and the House of Representatives came close to a deal with the White House last weekend on prescription drug prices that would allow some Medicare negotiations with pharmaceutical companies, Politico reports. But passage of the $1.75 trillion Build Back Better budget reconciliation bill is not likely to happen in time for Tuesday’s Virginia gubernatorial election.
Note: By now it seems Democrats may be resolved to Republican Virginia gubernatorial candidate Glenn Youngkin being just about even in the polls with Democratic candidate Terry McAuliffe, and that the BBB and bipartisan infrastructure bills won’t help. We’re also betting none of this will get a vote until after Thanksgiving break, just in time to take up the debt limit as well.
•••
Kinzinger Won’t Seek Re-Election – One of only two Republicans on the House Select Committee investigating the January 6 Capitol insurrection, Rep. Adam Kinzinger of Illinois, said Friday he would not seek re-election after Democrats in his state’s legislature paired up three sets of incumbents in their gerrymandering. Kinzinger would face fellow Republican Darin LaHood for Illinois’ new 16th District seat. Kinzinger also faced a primary challenge from a supporter of Donald Trump, as the congressman was one of 10 Republicans to vote for the 45th president’s second impeachment last January.
Referring to his 2010 campaign for his first term in the House, Kinzinger says he remembers “saying that if I ever thought it was time to move on from Congress, I would. And I think that time is now.”
•••
U.S. ‘Rarely’ Enforced Conditions on Aid to Afghanistan, Report Says – The U.S. failed to enforce its own conditions on the Afghan National Defense and Security Forces in exchange for nearly $89 billion in aid during the nearly 20 years of the Afghanistan war against the Taliban, according to a special inspector general’s report released to Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin.
The U.S. military assistance didn’t hold the ANDSF “to account by enforcing the conditions it established to create a stronger, more professional and self-reliant ANDSF,” the inspector general, John Sopko, wrote in an October 6 letter to Austin and other military leaders that has just surfaced publicly, Roll Call reports.
Note: For those following U.S. military efforts to train the ANDSF to be self-reliant since the early 2000s, this isn’t much of a revelation. The inspector general’s audit was completed and circulated for comment inside the Defense Department two months ago, according to Roll Call, which would have been just after the 11-day takeover of Afghanistan by the Taliban, and the country’s president, Ashraf Ghani, reportedly fled with a helicopter full of cash.
•••
COVID-19 Death Toll Tops 5 Million Globally -- The global death toll from the COVID-19 pandemic has topped 5 million, according to Johns Hopkins University’s tracker. The U.S., the UK, the European Union and Brazil account for nearly half that number, although those nations have about one-eighth of the world’s population combined.
The U.S. leads the death toll among all nations, at more than 745,000 to date.
--Edited by Todd Lassa and Nic Woods
_____