By Stephen Macaulay

“So we have made it clear that we are not going to move into Ukraine, neither on the ground, or in Ukrainian airspace. And of course, the only way to implement a no-fly zone is to send NATO planes, fighter planes into Ukrainian airspace, and then impose that no-fly zone by shooting down Russian planes. . . . But we also believe that if we did that, we'll end up with something that could end in a full-fledged war in Europe, involving many more countries, and causing much more human suffering. So that's the reason why we make this painful decision to impose heavy sanctions, provide significant support, stepping up support. But at the same time not involving NATO forces directly in the conflict in Ukraine, neither on the ground, or in their airspace.” - NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg, 4 March 2022

As we watch the horrible situation in Ukraine, as we hear President Zelenskyy ask for a no-fly zone to be established, it is almost simply humane to think that this would be the right thing to do.

But to do so, to have a Russian plane shot down as Stolenberg notes, would result in the 30 nations of NATO joining the battle. As President Biden told the House Democratic Caucus Issues Conference last week, “But, look, the idea — the idea that we’re going to send in offensive equipment and have planes and tanks and trains going in with American pilots and American crews, just understand — and don’t kid yourself, no matter what you all say — that’s called ‘World War Three.’  Okay?  Let’s get it straight here, guys. That old expression — ‘Don’t kid a kidder.’”

No one is kidding about any of this.

There is an array of anti-aircraft systems that the NATO countries can send to Ukraine to mitigate the consequences of Russian bombers. Like the British STARStreak high-velocity, man-portable, anti-air missiles.

Here’s the thing: the NATO countries are playing by the rules. The STARStreak is a defensive weapon, not an offensive weapon. The NATO leaders do not want to poke the proverbial bear.

Still, one wonders whether Putin, with his economy in shambles, isn’t going to feel sufficiently provoked to launch attacks on NATO countries.

At which point the notion of a “no-fly zone” over the Ukraine is going to seem quaint.

A question that must be asked a lot in Brussels, Washington, Berlin, London, Paris and other capitols is: Do we maintain a reactive mode or do we make Putin regret that he ever left his dacha?