We’re Solvent -- …to March 14, the date to which the 118th Congress has kicked the can. Just after the federal government’s budget expired midnight Saturday morning, the Senate passed the “slimmed down” continuing resolution but without a provision to raise the debt ceiling in order to allow another Trump tax cut, by 85-11 vote. The Senate’s vote closely followed 366-34 passage by the House, Roll Call reports, easily surpassing the two-thirds threshold required under the chamber’s suspension of rules procedure.
The bill is roughly 120 pages versus the first CR, at 1,547 pages, voted down last Wednesday. President Biden was to sign it Saturday.
“Though this bill does not include everything Democrats fought for, there are major victories in this bill for American families,” Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY), said before the final vote; “provide emergency aid for communities battered by natural disasters, no debt ceiling, and it will keep government open with no draconian cuts.”
The bill includes about $100 billion in disaster aid for victims of hurricanes Milton and Helene, and the 2023 Maui fires in Hawaii and a one-year extension of the farm bill. Removing the debt ceiling increase, which DOGE Czar Elon Musk and President-elect Trump wanted to happen during Biden’s lame-duck period was key for House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-NY).
“Everything else” in the bill “is a win for the American people, and the debt limit is out,” Jeffries said.
The CR gives the incoming 119th Congress, with Republicans’ 53-47 majority, to March 14 before they reach the federal budget can once again.
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FRIDAY 12/20/24
Uh oh – Yeah, X-Twitter/Tesla/SpaceX/Nueralink-CEO/DOGE Czar/world’s-richest-man/Bond-villian/shadow-president Elon Musk’s sinking of the first of Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) continuing resolutions earlier this week has backfired. Thirty-eight House Republicans Thursday rejected Johnson’s second CR, slimmed-down and containing removal of the debt ceiling through the entire upcoming Trump administration. With all House Democrats joining the dissenting Republicans to vote it down, 174-235, we are headed for likely partial shutdown of the federal government after midnight Friday.
After a “marathon” of meetings in Speaker Johnson’s office Thursday, CQ Roll Call reports, the House suspended rules to push the second CR through with a two-thirds vote requirement. While the first failed CR would have suspended the debt ceiling until January 2 (Happy New Year!), yesterday’s failed CR would have suspended it to January 30, 2027, or 10 days after Trump’s successor is inaugurated.
House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-NY) argued for sticking with the original CR deal.
But President-elect Trump was all over that second, “slimmed-down” CR even if 38 hardline otherwise heavy-MAGA House Republicans were not.
“Speaker Mike Johnson and the House have come to a very good Deal for the American People,” Trump truth socialed on Truth Social. (Though reeking of Trump’s signature superfluous capitalization, perhaps "Deal for the American People" can become the president-elect’s post-Reagan theme, like the “New Deal” or “Morning in America.”)
Democrats opposed the “slimmed down” CR with the four-plus year debt ceiling suspension because they fear the suspension would make it easy for Republicans to run roughshod over Congress with heavy tax cuts. Favoring the rich. Like Elon Musk.
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THURSDAY 12/19/24
Musk Xes CR – DOGE Czar Elon Musk put the kibosh on House Speaker Mike Johnson’s (R-LA) bipartisan continuing resolution for the federal budget Wednesday, with a barrage of tweets to threaten a partial shutdown of the government at midnight Friday. President-elect Trump and veep-elect JD Vance issued a lengthy tweet – rather than a Truth Social post, interestingly – Wednesday calling Johnson’s CR deal “a betrayal of our country” and demanding Johnson raise the debt ceiling immediately so it’s under President Biden’s watch and yet ready for “Day One” of the new administration, according to Politico.
“Increasing the debt ceiling is not great but we’d rather do it on Biden’s watch,” Trump-Vance posted on X-Twitter.
It’s a sort of yang to the yin of Trump’s kibosh put on the bipartisan immigration bill earlier this year.
Thursday’s Politico Playbook notes that Trump likely wasn’t paying much attention to the CR, which would keep the federal lights on to March 14, until Musk stepped in.
Warren warns … Prior to the CR shutdown, Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) emailed the Trump transition team to warn that Musk, the CEO and major stockholder of Tesla, SpaceX and Neuralink, among companies that have major contracts with the federal government, should sign an ethics pledge, she told NPR’s Morning Edition in a Wednesday interview. Warren told NPR’s Michel Martin that she warned of Musk’s violations of the Trump transition team’s own ethics rule. Trump spokesperson Carolyn Leavitt has responded on several news outlets, referring to Warren as “Pocahontas.”
On the bubble … Is Speaker Johnson still useful to Trump?
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THURSDAY 12/18/24
The Fed Speaks – And it’s upbeat about today’s economy, which means it likes what the Biden administration has done to try and normalize it since the COVID pandemic, along what it has done to tamper inflation.
To that point, the Fed’s Open Market Committee has “lowered the target range for the federal funds rate by ¼% to 4 ¼- to 4 ½%.” It’s the third cut this year in the Fed’s slow u-turn on steady increases in response to high coronavirus/post-coronavirus inflation. First cut was in September, by half a point, followed by a quarter-point cut in November.
Chairman Jerome Powell signaled that as the Consumer Price Index has hovered closer to 3% than the Fed’s target of 2%, next year’s cuts will be more modest and less frequent than previously hinted at; maybe two in all of 2025. He said Wednesday’s quarter-point cut was far from a slam-dunk.
“Today was a close call, but we decided it was the right call. From here, it’s a new phase, and we’re going to be cautious about further cuts,” Powell said (per The Wall Street Journal).
Indeed, 11 of the 12 FOMC members, including Powell and his vice chair John Williams voted for the cut, while member Beth Hammack preferred to maintain the 4 ½% to 4 ¾% rate range.
Next year’s tepid outlook and conservatism over rate cuts sent the stock market to a major fall Wednesday, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average off 1,123 points, or -2.58%, to 42,326,87.
How will Trump respond? … Citing high employment and strong GDP growth, Powell said, “again, the US economy has been just remarkable.” It is all but guaranteed the president-elect will take credit for the current economy. But what about next year’s economy, especially if the FOMC curbs interest rate cuts due to a return to rising inflation?
Powell says he will not step down as Fed chair before his current term is up in 2026, just in time for the midterm elections. Perhaps this year’s rate cuts under Powell could be blamed for any rise in inflation next year?
As crypto creeps up … Then there is the question of crypto currency. Thanks to a push by the nation’s tech oligarchs and to his family’s establishment of its own crypto coin, Trump has flipped on the issue and now apparently wants to fill a virtual Fort Knox with the stuff.
Asked by an Axios reporter at Wednesday’s FOMC press conference whether the Fed will look into buying up some of the coins for itself, Powell responded that it is not allowed.
“We’re not looking for a law change,” he said.
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WEDNESDAY 12/18/24
Hammer Time – Congress hammers out a kick-the-can plan to keep the federal lights on. Choose your continuing resolution cliché. Lawmakers have released a 1,547-page spending bill to fund the government past December 20 – that’s Friday, when Congress is scheduled to go home for the holidays – and on to March 14, NPR’s Morning Edition reports.
The CR includes about $100 billion for federal funding to mitigate natural disasters, including the aftermath of hurricanes Milton and Helene, and the 2023 Maui fires in Hawaii. It would extend the five-year farm bill by one more year, rebuild the Francis Scott Key Bridge in Baltimore and allow Washington, D.C., to redevelop the 174-acre RFK Stadium site that has been fallow since 2019.
Prospects … The House Freedom Caucus objects to the CR’s “reckless spending,” but when push comes to shove, to utilize another cliché, the House and Senate will pass it this weekend in order to avoid a government shutdown. Then it will become freshly inaugurated President Trump’s problem, though of course he will have help from Republican majorities in both chambers for the 119th Congress.
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TUESDAY 12/17/24
Russian Chemical Weapons Chief Killed – Ukrainian prosecutors have previously charged Lt. Gen. Igor Kirillov, head of the Russian Armed Forces’ radiation, chemical and biological defense troops with using banned chemical weapons in its war against Ukraine. On Tuesday, explosives attached to a scooter near a house in Moscow’s Ryazanky Prospect blew up, killing Kirillov and his aide, The Kyiv Independent reports, citing a source with the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU).
The news outlet has not independently verified the report.
Question is … Will this sort of thing give Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy better leverage when he is forced to sit down with Donald J. Trump and Vladimir Putin to negotiate an end to the war?
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Got $200b? – There are questions of how SoftBank’s Mayoshi Son will raise the $100 billion over four years he has pledged to artificial intelligence and emerging technologies projects that will create 100,000 jobs in the US, in a joint announcement Monday with President-elect Trump at Mar-a-Lago. Mayoshi will either have to sell off some holdings or raise some two-thirds of that in new venture capital. Mayoshi has about $30 billion cash to invest, according to The Wall Street Journal. That didn’t stop Trump from negotiating upward.
“Would you make it $200 billion?” Trump said to Mayoshi. Art of the Deal-style negotiations, after all.
“I will try to make it happen,” Mayoshi replied, fighting the president-elect for the room’s oxygen.
“Alright, 200,” Trump dealt back.
“He’s a great negotiator,” Mayoshi replied. Mission accomplished; Trump has captured the nation with the promise of job growth by a wily entrepreneur from Japan.
Second chance … Repeating history, not so much. Mayoshi pledged $50 billion to the nation for Trump’s first term, in December 2016 after securing the $100 billion from Middle Eastern countries for the SoftBank vision Fund. Mayoshi invested that in such high-profile flops as WeWork, the construction-focused company Katerra and a robot pizza-delivery company.
The WSJ helpfully notes that such private backing of a new administration often fails to work out, pointing to a high-profile Trump announcement of a $10 billion, 13,000-job investment by FoxConn in a liquid crystal plant in Wisconsin in 2018. Despite heavy tax incentives from the state, it never happened.
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MONDAY 12/16/24
Trump 47, So Far – President-elect Trump and his team have sucked so much air out of the lame-duck Biden White House that it seems fair to ask; How is Trump 47 doing, so far?
Trump was accompanied by both his choice for Defense secretary, Pete Hegseth, and by his back-up for that cabinet post, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, at the Army-Navy game in Landover, Maryland, last Saturday. In the days leading up to the game, which Navy won 31-13, Team Trump clawed back so much support from skeptical Senate Republicans that it would be a wonder that DeSantis bothered to show up.
Except … in showing up, DeSantis seems to be taking a page from former House Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) who kissed Trump’s ring at Mar-a-Lago just one month after his second impeachment, for his (“alleged”) leadership of the mob at the Capitol on January 6,, 2021. Trump has his reason for inviting the governor formerly known as Ron DeSanctimonius to the football game: The next president wants daughter-in-law Laura Trump to be appointed senator from Florida after Marco Rubio inevitably is confirmed to be the next secretary of state, according to The Washington Post, citing people familiar with the matter.
The price of eggs … Then there’s inflation, for which Trump apparently has lost confidence within himself in being able to turn into deflation with a wave of the executive order drill-baby-drill wand, in this case to make the US the world’s biggest oil producer, up from its current position as world’s largest oil producer.
“It’s hard to bring things down once they are up,” Trump told Time magazine in its cover story naming him Person of the Year. “You know, it’s very hard.”
This raises a couple of points:
- No matter what you think of Trump’s snagging of Time’s once-vaunted Person of the Year award, it was rather brilliant of the magazine’s editors to get a comprehensive interview with the president-elect out of it.
- Biden, as well as the Harris/Walz campaign had tried in vain to convince voters that the inflation rate is coming down – that is, prices still go up, but closer to the ideal rate of 2% per year – and that it rose past 9% a couple of years ago because of the COVID-19 pandemic and Trump 45’s weak response. Not to mention bird flu affecting chickens’ egg production (coffee is next, thanks to the way climate change has affected beans in Brazil and Vietnam).
Meanwhile … Next up as Team Trump continues to push for Senate Republican support for Hegseth as Defense secretary, the president-elect’s pick for Health and Human Service secretary, anti-vaxxer Robert F. Kennedy, Jr., meets with 20 GOP senators this week to argue for his cause, NPR reports.
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Another Win for Trump – How bad, how ominous, is ABC News’ $15 million settlement with Donald J. Trump over the differences in New York state law between the words “rape” and “sexual abuse”?
ABC’s George Stephanopoulos used the word “rape” in referring to E. Jean Carroll’s successful libel suit against the former and future president, in a contentious interview on This Week with Rep. Nancy Mace (R-SC), a former Trump critic-turned-supporter who had earlier revealed she had been raped as a teenager. The judge in the case had said “pointedly” that Trump was found liable for what he did for what Americans would commonly call “rape” but was technically considered sexual abuse under New York State law according to NPR media reporter David Folkenflik, speaking on Morning Edition.
In addition, Folkenflik noted, ABC News and Stephanopoulos should have been given wide latitude in Trump’s defamation suit had they let it go to court, because Trump is a public figure. ABC News will contribute $15 million to Trump’s presidential library and post a “statement of regret.”
In The Bulwark, a never-Trumper center-right publication, William Kristol warns that ABC News’ – or perhaps more pointedly, its owner Disney’s – easy capitulation is a clear sign that the president-elect, and such Trump acolytes as his planned appointment for FBI director, Kash Patel will aggressively go after media outlets whom they feel have aggrieved Trump.
“I really shouldn’t be the one to do it,” Trump said at a Mar-a-Lago presser Monday. “It should be the Justice Department … or someone else. But I have to do it.”
In the wide-ranging press conference, Trump repeated his vow to sue pollster Ann Selzer for a “bombshell” report in the Des Moines Register showing him behind Vice President Kamala Harris in Iowa, and said he would sue CBS News’ 60 Minutes for its alleged edit of an interview with Harris ahead of the election, and the Pulitzer Prizes for awarding The Washington Post and The New York Times for their coverage of what he calls the 2016 Russian election interference “hoax” (per Mediaite).
In other words, regarding that threatened suit against the Pulitzers, “Russia, Russia, Russia.” … Which, after all, Vladimir Putin assured Trump was not Russia, at their 2018 meeting in Helsinki.
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The Next Joe Manchin? – Sen. John Fetterman (D-PA) joined Donald J. Trump’s Truth Social last Tuesday, and promptly used the social media platform to call for a pardon for the president-elect over his conviction in a New York State court on charges he falsified business records.
“The Trump hush money and Hunter Biden cases were both ******** and pardons are appropriate,” Fetterman said on Truth Social Tuesday evening, according to The Philadelphia Inquirer. Since November 5th, Fetterman has expressed support for some of the president-elect’s cabinet and department-head choices, and says he admires Trump’s new right-hand man, Tesla/SpaceX/X-Twitter CEO Elon Musk.
--Compiled and edited by Todd Lassa
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MONDAY 12/16/24