By Nic Woods
Key takeaways throughout mainstream media last week from the U.S. Census Bureau’s preliminary apportionment data, delivered April 26 to President Joe Biden, was that population growth has slowed the most since the 1930s, to just 7.4% last year, and that the population shift to the South and West from the Northeast and Midwest continues.
But did it really?
The nation’s 24th Decennial Census was the first done in the middle of a global pandemic that severely hindered how Census workers could do their job, even though it was also the first done mainly online.
Their bosses in the Trump administration did them no favors by underfunding the process, insisting (even litigating) on a citizenship question that had been dropped decades ago because it guaranteed an undercount, embattling the process even further by trying to (illegally) remove the undocumented from the count, then ending the process abruptly starting in the summer despite Bureau pleas to allow them to complete the work.
They did the best they could, under the circumstances, but if you listened to Census Bureau spin April 26, you’d think none of that mattered. It does.
Instead of declaratively stating anything in the 2020 Census, we should add “more or less” to every statement.
- The US population (including Washington, D.C.) as of April 1, 2020 totaled 331,449,281, more or less;
- The population grew 7.4% from 2010, more or less;
- California, New York, Illinois, Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania and West Virginia, lost a seat, more or less;
- Texas, Florida, North Carolina, Montana, Oregon and Colorado gained seats, more or less
Sure, it’s monotonous, so understandably the Census Bureau, even in a new administration, didn’t do that, but it helps make the numbers (slightly) more accurate.
A quick aside: Texas and Florida did themselves no favors in 2020, delaying and completely defunding, respectively, Census efforts in their states. It’s also highly likely there was an undercount in population. If everything went as was planned after the prior Census, in 2010, Texas could have gained more than two seats and Florida more than one. So, joke’s on you!
Setting aside pandemic deaths, which were huge but probably not enough to move the needle, it only counts the folks who got their Census links by mail on time, had access to a working computer and broadband by April 1, didn’t fear (or hate) federal agents, and had the time and brain capacity to remember to fill out the Census by April 1. The April 1 deadline is not arbitrary – it was Census Day.
The data lack those the Census Bureau had to call (good luck getting someone on a land line these days) or visit after April 1 – folks who don’t own computers, the homeless, rural residents, the elderly, undocumented residents – and many libraries, which offer computers and broadband to those who don’t have a home setup, were closed because of the pandemic, adding another obstacle.
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At first glance, it looks like reapportionment and redistricting, based solely on initial takeaways from Census data, would heavily favor the GOP.
Data show that whatever migration or population growth is occurring isn’t necessarily in favor of Republican voters. Take migration from California to Texas. Migrants could be from more traditional conservative areas like Orange County, but they also could be from people in cities like L.A. and San Francisco, who are seeking less expensive housing with ample room. But let’s be real – migrants increasingly have a tendency to sort with the like-minded, so conservatives are more likely to land in Frisco or Midland, while liberals are more likely to land in Austin or Houston.
If self-sorting isn’t an issue, Texas, Florida and North Carolina, in particular, still have ways of getting around that to the GOP’s benefit. They are among the states gaining seats where Republicans control the legislature and the legislature draws the districts based on Census data. Of the states that gained a seat in 2020, Colorado is the only one where a commission separate from the (Democratic) legislature redraws the districts.
In Colorado, the political affiliation of its new residents matters less to a commission not beholden to either party but, in Texas and Florida, it has become akin to a God-given right for the dominant GOP to pick their voters and redraw the map to establish dominance that could last 10 years or more, depending on what happens in their 2030 elections. So, expect more of the same.
This doesn’t say that Democrats don’t do the same. They do. But one state, with one gain and a Democratic legislature calling the shots isn’t really going to change the current state of play, no matter how much they gerrymander.
Back to the slowing population growth.
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Basically, the U.S. has made it harder for immigrants to come, so fewer are coming.
Further, our economy slowed after the Great Recession, which the 2010 Census noted. Mexico’s economy improved in the meantime, resulting in fewer immigrants from there as well.
If you’re collecting Social Security, you should be worried, because our native birthrate is low and there are fewer immigrants paying into, but not necessarily benefiting from, the Social Security system to make up the difference.
Based on 2020 U.S. Census Data, our fastest growing demographics are those over 80 and those 2 and younger. Those 2-year-olds may start working in 2037, but their labor won’t be officially counted until the 2040 Census. Meanwhile, the oldest Gen Xers will reach retirement age – but not necessarily retire – in 2030. It’s too late to make up that 10-year gap.
If the Census numbers are right, there’s not much we can do about it except finally fix our immigration system to boost our population growth to bolster entitlements. If our response now is “have more babies,” well, it’s a bit too late.
So, what’s happens now?
The Census Bureau releases more detailed data “no later than September “that will be used by legislatures and commissions to redraw their districts. Then the fun begins! And we’ll have to live with the result for another decade.
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Click on the Forum tab to read footnotes on Nic Woods’ 2020 Census news analysis.