FRIDAY 1/19/24
The Can is Kicked … to March 1 for some agencies. To March 8 for others. Will Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) last that long?
President Biden is expected to sign the latest continuing resolution, third in this fiscal year, as soon as it hits his Oval Office desk, The Guardian reports. Funding for some agencies would have expired 12:01 a.m. Saturday.
“Avoiding a shutdown is very good news for the country, for our veterans, for parents and children, and for farmers and small businesses – all of whom would have felt the sting had the government shut down,” said Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY).
But is it good for Johnson’s future?
The Senate vote was 77-18, according to Punchbowl News, which reports that members of the House Freedom Caucus attempted to get the speaker to put the bill through rules and amend it with H.R., the MAGA-esque U.S. border bill Johnson had previously tied to passage of continued funding for Ukraine’s fight against Russia.
Johnson’s problem is that erstwhile House Republican allies voted against him (Punchbowl News, again). They include Rep. Elise Stefanik (NY), third-ranking GOP House member and a leading contender to become Donald J. Trump’s running mate, and; Jodey Arrington (Budget chair from TX), Mike Bost (Veteran Affairs chair, TX), Mike Gallagher (China Select Committee chair, WI), Mark Green (Homeland Security chair, TN), Mike Guest (Ethics chair, MS), Jim Jordan (Judiciary chair, OH), Brian Steil (administration chair, WI), Bruce Westerman (Natural Resources chair, AR) and Roger Williams (Small Business chair, TX).
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Willis Quagmire – Fani Willis, the Fulton County, Georgia district attorney who has mounted what many pundits consider the strongest of three 2020 election interference cases against Donald J. Trump, has accused Joycelyn Wade, wife of one of her top deputies, of using the Wades’ divorce case to harass and damage the DA’s reputation and obstruct the election interference investigation (The Atlanta Journal-Constitution). Willis’ attorney has filed a motion to block a subpoena for the DA to give a pretrial deposition in the divorce case filed by Joycelyn Wade against Nathan Wade.
Earlier in January, Ashleigh Merchant, attorney for Trump co-defendant Mike Roman, in a court filing contended without evidence that Willis is having an improper, romantic relationship with Nathan Wade and that the DA has benefited financially from it, with Willis and Wade taking “lavish” vacations with money Wade made as special prosecutor.
At the very least, the allegations can build skepticism of Willis’ case, built on months of a grand jury investigation. At most, the allegations could torpedo the one election interference case against Trump that would not be covered by a pardon if he becomes president next January.
--TL
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THURSDAY 1/18/24
Squeezing Johnson – President Biden and congressional Republican leaders as well as Democratic leaders are “ramping up pressure” on Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) to accept a deal with Ukraine funding and a border security package, The Hill reported Wednesday following the White House confab that included Avril Haines, director of national intelligence, and national security advisor Jake Sullivan.
The White House has pointed to negotiations with Senate Republicans led by James Lankford (R-OK) as evidence of progress in the face of hardline MAGA oppo to a compromise, according to CQ Roll Call. But the GOP’s House majority is about to become thinnest in history, with just one vote to spare.
“I told the president what I had been saying for many months, and that is we must (have) change at the border, substantive policy change,” Johnson said.
“There was remarkable consensus in that room,” said Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY). “Just about every person in that room talked about the importance of adding Ukraine. And everyone in the room also talked about that we had to do something about the border.” (Roll Call again.)
Some lawmakers already have said they’re open to pulling a McCarthy on Johnson, according to Punchbowl News Thursday. The speaker had said in November he would not pass any more continuing resolutions, and now he will have to pass one before the end of the week. Republican hardliners also are angry he is pushing a deal with just $16 billion in cuts.
Meanwhile, passing a CR on the federal budget will leave Johnson (assuming he still is speaker) seven days in March to fund the entire government, PN notes.
--TL
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WEDNESDAY 1/17/24
White House Rumble – The Big Four from Capitol Hill plan a White House confab with President Biden Wednesday so he could pitch them on the importance of aid to Ukraine and his national security supplemental, two days before a potential government shutdown as part of the federal budget becomes due. Punchbowl News gives the meeting little chance of success.
The Big Four are Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) and Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY), and House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) and Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-NY). Last week, Mitchell urged Republican senators to support a border deal being negotiated between Sen. James Lankford (R-OK) and Democrats. But PN says Johnson will never pass such a Senate compromise. “True border security” will only come with Donald J. Trump back in the White House, Johnson has told House Republicans.
Told’ja so: This jibes with the scenario we laid out a couple of weeks ago; That Johnson can pass the budget his predecessor as speaker, Kevin McCarthy (R-CA), reached with Democrats last year and yet avoid McCarthy’s ultimate fate by promising a more Trumpian outcome next year if the GOP has such success this November. However, Sen. Minority Whip John Thune (R-SD) told Punchbowl News a Trumpian border policy would never get past a filibuster even if Republicans gain enough seats for a majority.
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Here’s a Compromise – Meanwhile, Congress on Tuesday released a $78 billion compromise that features $33 billion to partly extend a major expansion of the child tax credit made popular by the 2021 pandemic aid law, plus $33 billion to reinstate a set of expired business tax benefits, The New York Times reports. Both would extend through 2025.
Though the “rare bipartisan agreement” is the product of House Ways & Means Committee chair Jason Smith (R-MO) and Senate Finance Committee chair Ron Wyden (D-OR), it is given scant chance of passage by both chambers.
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Why DeSantis is Still In It – Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis beat expectations with his 21% from the Iowa Republican Caucuses, which “can create national momentum,” FiveThirtyEight says Wednesday. DeSantis’ number from Monday night was five points above his final polling average, equal to Sen. Ted Cruz’s (R-TX) Iowa bump in 2016. It worked better for John Kerry, who was 14 points above his final polling average in 2004, according to the site.
Kerry, of course, went on to win the ’04 Democratic nomination and then lose to George W. Bush. Bush’s father was 19.5 points above his final poll average in 1980 (he lost the GOP nomination to Ronald Reagan). Rev. Pat Robertson was 13.1 points above his polling average in the 1988 GOP caucuses before he lost the nomination to George H.W. Bush.
Haley’s comet?: Former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley’s New Hampshire polling average is about 30% to Trump’s 43.4%, according to FiveThirtyEight, with DeSantis at roughly 6%. But Trump is expected to get most, if not all, of Vivek Ramaswamy’s 5%, as he suspended his campaign after Iowa.
--Compiled and edited by Todd Lassa
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DeSantis Edges Haley for Second in Iowa
TUESDAY 1/16/24
By Todd Lassa
It’s on to New Hampshire after Donald J. Trump’s inevitable trouncing of Ron DeSantis and Nikki Haley, who would have come within 10.7 points of the former president in Monday’s Iowa caucuses, had they been one candidate. The caucuses did manage to weed out Trumpian entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy, who has suspended his campaign as he has apparently grown weary of spending his own money to convince young voters he is their Trump.
Ryan Binkley, who co-founded Texas-based Create Church with his wife in 2014, according to Wikipedia, grabbed about 1% of the Iowa vote. No, we haven’t heard of him, either.
For the record, here are the Iowa caucus vote totals, according to the Associated Press:
•Trump 56,260 51.0%
•DeSantis 23,420 21.2%
•Haley 21,085 19.1%
With that, ex-President Trump earns 20 of 40 Iowa delegates to the GOP convention in Milwaukee this coming summer. Florida Gov. DeSantis earns 8 delegates and former South Carolina Gov. Haley earns 7 delegates.
Ramaswamy grabbed 8%, which otherwise would have gone to Trump, not DeSantis nor Haley.
Anti-Trump Republican pollster Frank Luntz told NPR’s Morning Edition Tuesday he attended eight caucuses in one school auditorium in Iowa, which confirmed to him “how passionate and determined Trump voters are.” … The message keeping that passion and determination alive is that Trump is telling his supporters “They want to attack you, and I’m standing in their way.”
A much-less religious, less socially conservative New Hampshire holds its primary next week. Haley hopes to beat Trump, or at least come in a close second. Such a result won’t likely force DeSantis out of the race, as he has high hopes for the primary after that, in South Carolina, Haley’s home state.
If DeSantis beats Haley for second place there, will she drop out? Stay tuned.