Digging Into the Numbers

By Stephen Macaulay

As Mark Twain allegedly said, “There are lies, damn lies, and statistics.”

So Mr. Corbett’s citing a poll that indicates “The President is Doing What People Want” is squishably true.

For example, 70% say that he is doing “what he promised in the campaign.”

Even I agree with that. Doesn’t mean that I want it.

The CBS News/YouGov poll puts his overall job rating at 53% and the disapproval rating at 47%.

Somehow that doesn’t seem like overwhelming support. Yes, a majority, but far from being the sort of “mandate” that Trump and his acolytes talk about.

On the subject of approval, Gallup did a poll, too, which found that Donald Trump’s initial job approval rating is 47%.

That, according to Gallup, places “him below all other elected presidents dating back to 1953.”

There is a president who had a lower initial rating than Trump 47: Trump 45. That was 45%.

But back to the CBS/YouGov poll.

There is one item that seems to be more in the “doing what they want” space that isn’t that. And it is something that he talked about during his campaign.

In the CBS News/YouGov poll there’s this:

“Trumps Focus on Lowering Prices Is. . .”

Wait for it. . . .

  • 66% answer “Not Enough.”
  • 31% said “Right Amount.”

Whoa. That “Not Enough” number is well beyond the ±2.5% margin of error.

After the election Trump said on NBC News’ Meet the Press:

“Very simple word, groceries. Like almost -- you know, who uses the word? I started using the word -- the groceries. When you buy apples, when you buy bacon, when you buy eggs, they would double and triple the price over a short period of time, and I won an election based on that. We're going to bring those prices way down.”

Which (a) isn’t happening and (b) isn’t likely to happen any time soon because. . .

. . .there are the tariffs.

While 56% of those surveyed by CBS News/YouGov favor tariffs on goods from China, the opposition to tariffs applied to good from other countries is strong:

                                             Favor                    Oppose

Mexico                                    44%                     56%

Europe                                   40%                     60%

Canada                                   38%                     62%

Clearly there is some dissonance here given that during his campaign Trump said “tariffs” was a “beautiful word” and during his inaugural speech said: “Instead of taxing our citizens to enrich other countries, we will tariff and tax foreign countries to enrich our citizens.”

People evidently don’t like them. After all, an increasing number of people recognize that rather than enriching them, it is going to cost them more out-of-pocket whether they’re buying a Chevy Silverado or some fresh produce. 

And another factor of prices is what is paid at the pump.

Trump said during his campaign: “When I left office .  .. gasoline had reached $1.87 a gallon. We actually had many months where it was lower than that. But we hit $1.87, which was a perfect place, an absolutely beautiful number.”

What he doesn’t note is the reason that gasoline prices were at $1.87 was because of the consequences of COVID. For a very long time people didn’t go to places where they ordinarily did. Many people began to work from home. There was an excess of gasoline and the oil companies had no alternative than to reduce prices because of reduced demand.

The national average for a gallon of gas is $3.128. 

That’s 66.8% greater than his “beautiful number.”

And if the 10% tariff on petroleum from Canada goes into effect, look for that to go higher.

Trump didn’t say he was going to turn things over to Elon Musk. Trump didn’t say he was going to turn Gaza into a property development. Trump didn’t say that inflation would increase.

Soon people are going to realize that there is more — and less — to what he said he would do.

And odds are they won’t be happy.

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