Doing the New Hampshire Math

By Todd Lassa

In the month between her 11.3-point loss to Donald J. Trump in New Hampshire and the next GOP primary, Nikki Haley will either (Plan A): Prop up her Quixotic campaign and face likely embarrassment in her home state of South Carolina or (Plan B):“suspend” her campaign and endorse the leader of the Republican Party. There is a small chance she could suspend her campaign and refuse to endorse Trump, which would buck the trend set recently by Sen. Tim Scott (R-SC) and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis. 

The morning after her second place showing boosted by crossover votes in the open primary by independents and Democrats, Haley’s campaign says it’s still game-on. For the record, here are final results from New Hampshire, according to the Associated Press:

  1. Donald J. Trump    163,700 votes        54.5%
  2. Nikki Haley            129,646                43.2%

The GOP race is over, Sara Longwell, publisher of The Bullwark and founder of Republicans Against Trump, told NPR’s Morning Edition Wednesday.

On his Truth Social, Trump posted: NIKKI CAME IN LAST, NOT SECOND!

Like New Hampshire, South Carolina’s GOP primary on Saturday, February 24, is open, so Haley could pick up some independent and Democratic voters again. Because the Biden campaign tried to upend the Iowa caucuses and New Hampshire primary, the Democratic primary in South Carolina, which also is open, is on Saturday, February 3. 

Super Tuesday is March 5.

If Haley does drop out in the next 10 days, what are the chances some of Trump’s followers might cross over and vote for Rep. Dean Phillips (D-MN) or author Maryanne Williamson?

As we noted before the primary, if Haley does pick Plan B, there is huge pot of super PAC money from the Koch Brothers’ Americans for Prosperity Action committed to her defeat of Donald J. Trump. Where do the Koch Brothers and their money and cause go if she drops out?

And where does the Republican Party go if one of Trump’s criminal indictments makes it to court before November 5 (or more to the point, before the GOP convention in mid-July), or if the Supreme Court allows Colorado, Maine and probably a few other states to remove him from their ballots?

Haley did get nine New Hampshire GOP delegates to Trump’s 12 on Tuesday, according to the AP. Clearly, her campaign figures that’s better than nothing.