Commentary by Stephen Macaulay

Donald Trump’s approval rating is, as they say, “underwater.”

His overall job approval is at 45% according to Gallup polling February 3-16. The disapproval is at 51% and a sizable 5% have no opinion.

Yes, there really must be people living under rocks.

Of course, those numbers are “macro” in that they include Republicans, Democrats and independents.

It should surprise no one — except those who remember when Republicans actually stood for the rule of law, states’ rights, defending democracy, free trade, and things of that nature — that the overall Trump job approval is 93% among Republicans.

Four percent of Democrats give him a thumb’s up.

Still, that means 96% disapprove, unless there are a number of Dems with no opinion, which is unlikely but possible.

But what should be somewhat concerning to Trump are the numbers put up by the independents, which have him down.

Yes, down overall, with 37% approving of the job he’s doing.

More troubling are the numbers in individual categories of performance.

There’s no treading water found there.

On the subject of immigration, 40% of independents approve of his job. Think of it: this was one of Trump’s primary campaign issues and only 40% of independents give him a nod.

And it goes south from there:

• Foreign affairs:               37%
• Foreign trade:                 33%
• Economy:                      31%
• Situation in Middle East:  33%
• Situation in Ukraine:       33%

Look at the approval number for Trump’s work on the economy: 31%. The economy along with immigration were his primary boasts and the independents aren’t seeing it.

It is surprising that foreign affairs is so high, given his alienation of long-time allies of the US.

The Middle East is still roiling. The situation in Ukraine is getting worse with his embrace of Putin and attacks on Zelenskyy. (This may go back to his “perfect” phone call with Zelenskyy in July 2019 when Trump wanted him to investigate Joe Biden and to look into whether Hillary Clinton’s email server was in Ukraine. Zelenskyy demurred.)

One could argue that if things continue as they are, the independents are going to become even less approving.

While it isn’t precisely known how many actual independents there are (some may claim to be independent but more reliability lean Republican or Democratic), what is known is that they are important — possibly more important now, given how the supporters of the two traditional parties are walking in lockstep (or to go back to the theme of this, they are in the pool together synchronized swimming, except that the Olympic sport is graceful and on both sides grace is lacking).

If the support wanes further, then some of these independents are going to let their congressional representatives know that they aren’t happy. Unhappiness in their districts may be more concerning to them than a frown from Trump. 

When the tariffs start putting incredible pressure on family budgets, as inflation inches up because of them, when people start losing their jobs at the labs and research institutions that once received support from the Federal government before DOGE decided that support is unnecessary, when families that depended on school programs of various types for their kids . . . when these and other factors kick in hard, Trump may find himself to be unable to weave his way out of the negativity that will come his way like a tsunami.