Commentary by Stephen Macaulay

The US economy was doing fairly well until the COVID pandemic in 2020. Then things went to, well, think of a four-letter word that rhymes with “hit.”

Unemployment hit nearly 15%. Real GDP decreased at an annual rate of -2.21%.

As you may recall, President Trump tended to announce in public that the virus would just go away when it got warm or that bizarre medical interventions would do the trick.

According to Bob Woodward, Trump told him on March 19, 2020, “I wanted to always play it down. I still like playing it down because I don’t want to create panic.”

In addition to which, it was off-brand.

In March 2020 Trump signed the CARES Act. It was the largest economic relief package ever in the US: more than $2 trillion. (This is the legislation that created things like the Paycheck Protection Program.)

Then in December 2020 he signed the Consolidated Appropriations Act. This was some $900 billion.

So we’re looking at about $2.3 trillion.

Also COVID-related was the American Rescue Plan of 2021. That was signed by Joe Biden.

Its approximate cost was $1.9 trillion.

In other words, Trump spent $400,000,000,000 more than Biden.

Remember when Republicans used to accuse the Democrats as being the party of “tax and spend”?

Seems like the Republicans have become the party of “don’t tax and do spend.”

In 2021 the GDP grew by 5.8%. Unemployment fell to 5.35%. Inflation increased to 4.7% --because unlike the previous year, more people were buying stuff.

During the rest of the Biden administration unemployment remained low. Inflation was high in 2022 — 8% -- but in 2023 it was down to 4.1% and lower in 2024: 2.9%.

It was 2.3% in the 12 months through April. Somehow that 0.6% difference isn’t what Trump in campaign mode led us to believe it would be.

What’s more, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, grocery prices were up 2% in April 2025 but up 1.1% in April 2024.

Food in restaurants was up 3.9% in April 2025 but only up 0.3% in April 2024.

The “Big, Beautiful Bill” that the House passed is expected to add $2.4 trillion to the national debt between 2025 and 2034.

Tariffs? Well, despite the Trump administration’s claims that other countries foot the bill, that is simply not the case as anyone who has taken even Econ 101 knows.

The Budget Lab at Yale — and this will probably put the university in the crosshairs of the Administration — estimates that in 2025 the tariffs will cost the average American household $2,800 in 2024 dollars.

Then there are projected job losses from the tariffs.

The Budget Lab projects a loss of some 590,000 jobs by the end of the year.

The center-right Tax Foundation estimates that there will be a job loss of between 250,000 to 309,000

The average of those numbers: 383,000 job losses.

What this means is that US consumers are going to be paying more and rather than some sort of massive job creation, it will result in job destruction.

And then there is that bigger hole in the economy as a result of the Budget Bill as it stands.

Somehow it doesn’t seem like Team Trump is bothered by the financial impacts on regular Americans.

Its Golden Age is what Golden Ages always tend to be: Advantageous to the wealthy.

Macaulay is pundit-at-large for The Hustings.