By Todd Lassa

“Let’s declare victory and go home” was Sen. George Aiken’s (R-VT) suggestion in 1966 for extricating ourselves from Vietnam while the Johnson administration was quickly getting itself mired in an unwinnable conflict that would contribute to LBJ’s decision not to run for re-election.

Vladimir Putin is anti-democratic and does not worry about his re-election chances. With his nemesis Alexei Navalny recently sentenced to another nine years in prison, the Russian dictator seemingly can spend as much time mired in Ukraine as he wants. But it was hard not to come away from reports of President Biden’s visit to Poland over the weekend in which he further cemented NATO’s resolve – including with his host country’s own nationalistic leader, Andrzej Duda – that the war is turning in Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s favor.

There was the Kremlin, announcing a change in war strategy with a statement that the goals of “the first stage of the (special military) operation” had been “mainly accomplished” with Ukraine’s combat capabilities “significantly reduced,” The New York Times reported. 

Ukraine’s military has begun counterattacks in attempts to regain control of territory it has lost to Russia, NPR reported Monday, though Russia has increased attacks in Western Ukraine, closer to the Polish border. Putin wants to “split Ukraine in two,” like North Korea and South Korea.

Under the Kremlin’s new strategy, Russia seeks to break off a portion of Eastern Ukraine for itself, essentially an expansion of its eight-year war in Ukraine’s Crimea.

Conversely, Ukraine Ministry of Defense spokesman Markiyan Lubkivsky says“at least” 15 senior Russian commanders, including seven generals, have been killed in the field, The Washington Post reports.

The best thing that can be said about the Ukraine war is that Russia is not winning. This was punctuated with Biden’s statement at the end of his speech in Warsaw last weekend that Putin “cannot remain in power,” an ad lib that had White House officials back-peddling on any suggestion of “regime change,” another loaded, controversial phrase with deep history and meaning in the U.S.

But even if Western leaders privately see Putin's removal as the only clear way out of the war in Ukraine, Biden's gaffe has not done anything to improve Ukraine's situation, as Zelenskyy continues to plead for more arms and a no-fly zone.

The Kremlin’s shift in strategy also have the U.S. and NATO concerned Russia will soon begin to use chemical and biological weapons in Ukraine. Zelenskyy has offered the Kremlin a “diplomatic opening” WaPo reports Monday, as peace talks between the two countries are set to resume in Turkey (its authoritarian president, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, like Poland’s Duda, also could improve his reputation with the liberal democratic West here). Zelenskyy has offered to renounce “ambitions” to join NATO, WaPo says, but only after Russian troops leave.

And so it goes. More than one month into Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, 3 million refugees have escaped according to the United Nations, and an untold number of civilians have been killed or injured, but even with the awful devastation of Mariupol and the outskirts of Kyiv, Zelenskyy and his people have held off a major nuclear superpower more successfully than anyone outside Ukraine might have imagined. But those nukes loom large, and Biden’s suggestion that Putin’s index finger be removed from their button seems far more rational than the controversial words “regime change” suggest.