Trump Tanked the Economy, and Biden is Fixing It

By Ken Zino

The U.S. labor market added 175,000 jobs in April, the White House said via its Council of Economic Advisors, according to the latest official data. More than 60% of private-sector industries added jobs. The unemployment rate ticked up slightly to 3.9% – it went from 3.83% to 3.86% – and the labor force participation rate (LFPR) held steady at 62.7%. Wage gains continued to outpace inflation. I saw nothing in the report that was practically worrisome to the auto industry I’m involved with, or the economy as a whole, for that matter, when it was issued.

That said, Russia-Ukraine, Israel-Hamas and other regional wars, the Federal Reserve’s policies and our own Supreme Court and federal courts present serious challenges. The Putin wing of the Republican party, the ones who use Russian talking points and informants, are also not Greene, so to speak, but black areas impinging on growth. At least Biden isn’t sleeping through the official proceedings. 

From here on, what will be significant is if companies -- many of them global -- can adjust supply and pricing to fluctuating demand without incurring huge losses to increase unemployment. Consumer confidence and consumer demand are at the heart of the American economy.

“We learned at least two things” May 3 “about the U.S. labor market. First, most importantly, we learned that employers continue to hire at a strong pace, helping to generate record spells of both low unemployment and high women’s LFPRs. Second, we learned that as the pandemic continues to fade into the rear-view mirror, some key economic misalignments are realigning in a manner consistent with steady, stable, sustainable growth,” the Council of Economic Advisors said. 

Adarsh Jain, director of financial markets at GlobalData, a consultancy I use and respect, put it thus: “2024 started strong with labor market witnessing an unprecedented three consecutive months (January through March) of 15%+ month-on-month growth in job postings, signaling robust jobs demand. It is natural to anticipate a pullback from this rapid pace as companies adjust their demand, given that job postings, indicating hiring intentions, experience their first double-digit decline in four months in April, with a 12% month-on-month decrease.

“In terms of sector trends, consumer driven sectors like retail, automotive and consumer have been strong, despite persistent inflation, whereas tech sectors like telecom and IT have exhibited weakness. It will not be surprising if advances in AI continue to have a dampening effect on the demand for labor in these sectors,” Jain said.

With all the excrement flying about, just remember that under Trump you couldn’t even buy toilet paper. And bleach was recommended as a cure for Covid. The “T” in the Trump economy stands for “Tanked.” We have met the enemy before, and the enemy this time is some of us in our own House and Senate. The Biden Administration continues to work on solutions, not create further problems.

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Consumer Confidence Slips 

[CREDIT: University of Michigan]

By Todd Lassa

After months of growing confidence in the economy as measured by the University of Michigan’s widely quoted Index of Consumer Expectations, consumers in May felt a bit more uneasy – 12.4% more uneasy than in April. This will cause more than a little angst among President Biden’s re-election campaign staff, though there’s still nearly half a year left before the presidential election for American consumers to turn around these numbers again.

“Consumer sentiment retreated about 13% this May following three consecutive months of very little change,” Joanne Hsu, survey of consumers director for the UMich index said in a press release Friday morning. “This 10 index-point decline is statistically significant and brings sentiment to its lowest reading in about six months.”

Consumer confidence scored a 67.4 in this month’s survey, which is down 12.7 points from April, but is still 14.2 points above May 2023. 

Meanwhile, in this weekend’s left and right columns, Ken Zino and Stephen Macaulay, respectively, (both Michiganders, by the way) discuss Biden’s economy in comparison with ex-President Trump’s economy. As Macaulay notes, recent polls show voters have a more favorable opinion of the Trump administration’s economy than they do of the Biden administration’s economy.

To be sure, the Editorial We yearns for a time when we can debate Reaganomics v. Bidenomics, but that is not the political deal we have been dealt these past four years. 

What’s your take? Whether you are a New Dealer, a Reaganomics Supply-Sider, or a devotee of Bidenomics or of MAGAnomics, we humbly seek your civil comments. Please email comments to editors@thehustings.news and let us know whether you consider yourself – generally, not just on economic issues – conservative or liberal, in the subject line.  

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Would You Have Him Run Your Business?

By Stephen Macaulay

Facts do not cease to exist because they are ignored. — Aldous Huxley

It isn’t often that you see the author of Brave New World and Donald Trump acolyte Kelly Ann Conway together, but there are facts and then there are, in Conway’s felicitous phrasing “alternative facts.”

And it seems that when it comes to Donald Trump and the economy people are remembering alternative facts or perhaps selective facts.

That is, consider jobs. Now COVID-19 had more than a little to do with it, but the unemployment rate increased by 1.6% under Trump, rising to 6.3%. Some 2.9 million people lost their jobs. While it wouldn’t be fair to blame Trump for the virus, it is fair to call into question his lackadaisical and fantastical response to dealing with it. Had he done more, odds are that it wouldn’t have had such a significant impact on workers.

Then there is the trade deficit. He was going to put America First, right? He put tariffs on our allies predicated on an act that is based on defense needs (as though, say, Canada would suddenly stop shipping aluminum to the U.S.).

Turns out that the U.S. trade deficit was up 40.5% in 2020 compared with 2016 (thanks, Obama), the highest it had been since 2008.

The national debt increased from $14.4 trillion to $21.6 trillion under his guidance of things economic.

And while he traveled to places like West Virginia and Pennsylvania during the run-up to his election promising the coal miners in those parts that he would make sure those mine closings would come to an end and that “clean coal” would be powering the future, the future didn’t look so good for the miners, as 16.7% of them lost their jobs during his tenure and coal production declined by 26.5%

Yes, one heck of a businessman.

So it comes as something of a surprise to see that in Gallup poling conducted April 1-22 when asked what amount of confidence the people have in Trump and in Joe Biden to do or to recommend the right thing for the economy, 46% have a great deal/fair amount of confidence in Trump compared with 38% in Biden.

Biden has not proven himself to be a wizard when it comes to the economy, although one could argue that he has navigated the post-COVID situation rather well, going from a place where there was considerable unemployment and the lack of goods and services brought on by the lack of people to provide those things. Still, interest rates are higher in the U.S. than they have been for some time and inflation is at 3.5% so while there are products on the shelves of Kroger and Target, they generally come at higher price points than people may recall.

Still, for people to imagine that Trump is strong on economic issues is curious, especially in light of the billions of dollars of debt leading to bankruptcies at such places as:

  • Trump Taj Mahal
  • Trump’s Castle
  • Trump Plaza and Casino

And business failures including

  • Trump Airlines
  • Trump Steaks
  • Trump University

Arguably his business acumen based on his record — not on alternative facts, but those persistent ones that don’t cease to exist — is not something that should be particularly seen as one of his strengths.

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What’s Left

Keep in mind that if you’ve landed in this left column on your smartphone, you are not getting the whole picture of The Hustings.(Our three-column format might show up if you hold your phone horizontally.)

You also are missing out on Pundit-at-Large Stephen Macaulay’s latest pieces for the right column, including “The Biden Shuffle,” “Pecker Meets Hamilton” and “The Trump Edge.” We hope for all readers of all political stripes to read our news/news aggregate in our center column, with conservative takes in the right column and liberal takes in the left. It’s that simple, and it’s designed to get everybody out of their echo chambers.

To comment, email editors@thehustings.news and please let us know whether you generally lean left or lean right, in the subject line. 

_____

…meanwhile…

Donald J. Trump returned to a Manhattan court Thursday where his defense attorney cross-examined adult film star Stormy Daniels. The criminal case over falsified business records looks likely to be the only case Trump faces before the election. On Wednesday, the Georgia Court of Appeals announced it will review a judge's ruling that allowed Fulton County District Attorney Fani Willis to continue prosecuting Trump, The Atlanta Journal-Constitution reports, which means prosecutors will not get their August trial date.

FRIDAY 5/10/24

Netanyahu on Dr. Phil – As Republicans on Capitol Hill have been criticizing President Biden for withholding arms to Israel over its attack on the southern Gaza city of Rafah, buzz Friday morning centers on Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s interview with Phil McGraw on Dr. Phil Primetime. But Israel’s Haaretz led with this quote from Netanyahu in the interview: “The government’s first responsibility is to protect the people, that’s the ultimate enveloping responsibility, and the people weren’t protected, we have to admit that.”

•••

Confederate Leaders Go Back to School – School board members for Virginia’s Shenandoah County district voted 5-1 to restore names of Confederate leaders to two of its schools early Friday, CNN reports. Mountain View High School is to be renamed Stonewall Jackson High School, and Honey Run Elementary will be renamed Ashby Lee Elementary, for General Robert E. Lee and cavalry commander Turner Ashby, according to the report. 

The Confederate leaders’ names were removed from both schools four years ago in the wake of the 2020 police killing of George Floyd. 

Note: Save for the Jim Crow South, we cannot think of any losing military force that has had its “heros’” names applied to public buildings. We’re confident, for instance, there never has been an Adolf Eichmann secondary school nor a Hermann Göring kindergarten.

--TL

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No Shells for Rafah Attack – The Israeli Defense Force has not entered Rafah’s population centers yet, President Biden told CNN’s Erin Burnett on AC 360 Wednesday, but when they do, the U.S. will cut off arms to Israel, including artillery shells.

“I made it clear that if they go into Rafah – they haven’t gone into Rafah yet – if they go into Rafah, I’m not going to supply them the weapons that have been used historically to deal with Rafah, to deal with those cities, to deal with that problem,” Biden said. 

Republicans on Capitol Hill are objecting, CQ Roll Call reports. Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) and Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) said in a letter to Biden they were “alarmed” by the pause in armament deliveries, that “flies in the face of assurances provided regarding the timely delivery of security assistance to Israel.”

•••

MTG Fail? – The House voted a decisive 359-43 to table Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene’s (R-GA) motion to vacate Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) over bi-partisan passage of a $61-billion aid package to Ukraine. The vote, according to CQ Roll Call, breaks down to just 11 Republicans voting against the motion to table, assisted by 32 Democrats, with another seven Democrats voting “present.” 

While considered a major win for Johnson, who replaced ousted speaker and former Rep. Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) last year, Punchbowl News says the speaker “looks weak,” after “bucking” or ignoring other Republican congressional leaders’ suggestion he rework the motion to vacate available to any single member when he advanced the Ukraine aid package. 

Meanwhile, MTG – known as “Moscow Marj” in some circles – achieved her goal to get GOP House members on the record regarding the Ukraine aid vote, according to Punchbowl News. On the other hand, this could be considered a sign Republican voters are not so much against aid to Ukraine.

And of course, a statement from Donald J. Trump, whom Johnson visited at Mar-a-Lago in April, reenforced the notion that Trumpian loyalty is a one-way street: “With a majority of one, shortly growing to three or four, we’re not in a position of voting on a motion to vacate. At some point, we may very well be, but this is not the time.”

•••

Cruz Control – Republican senators reportedly are joking rather openly about Sen. Ted Cruz’s (R-TX) push to authorize the Federal Aviation Administration’s budget for the fiscal year by Friday’s deadline. Their “bemusement” stems from Cruz’s 180-degree turn from his role as a “conservative rabble-rouser” to “playing the leadon authorizing the FAA,” The Hill reports. Cruz is the ranking Republican on the Commerce Committee.

There is precedent for such hypocrisy, not mentioned in the report, when Cruz and his family jetted off to a Cancun vacation in February 2021 as a severe Texas storm left millions of his voters without power and water. 

“It’s been entertaining to watch,” one unnamed Republican senator told The Hill, regarding Cruz’s FAA push. Quoting the classic comedy movie Airplane, the senator added, “What’s the old Hollywood joke? ‘The foot’s on the other hand.’” Or in Cruz's mouth?

--TL

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WEDNESDAY 5/8/24

Haley Gives GOP Hope -- In case one of Donald J. Trump's myriad criminal cases stick before this August's Republican National Convention in Milwaukee (meaning, hurting him in the polls rather than helping him), his former UN ambassador, Nikki Haley, continues to grab primary votes more than two months after she suspended her campaign for the GOP presidential nomination. Haley got 128,000 votes in Tuesday's Indiana primary, according to The Hill's Decision Desk HQ, or 21.7% to Trump's 78.3%. In April, 150,000 Pennsylvania Republicans voted for Haley in that state's primary.

•••

U.S. Blocks Arms During Rafah Attack – In response to the Israeli government’s refusal to hold off its long-threatened attack on Rafah at Gaza’s southern border, the U.S. is withholding shipment of 3,000 missiles to Israel, NPR’s Morning Edition reports. Israel’s offensive on Rafah launched after Palestinians believed Hamas had successfully negotiated a ceasefire, but Israel refused to sign on to the deal brokered with Egypt and Qatar.

 •••

Cannon Gums Up Trump’s Classified Docs Trial – Quick reminder of the facts: Then-President Trump appointed Judge Aileen Cannon to the U.S. District Court for the Southern District of Florida in late 2020. In an August 2022 search of Mar-a-Lago, the FBI recovered boxes of classified documents Trump hoarded after leaving the White House.

The Washington Post reported last year that witnesses in the subsequent case said Trump showed some classified documents to guests at Mar-a-Lago. Trump’s attorneys, meanwhile, have successfully clogged up special counsel Jack Smith’s case accusing Trump of willful retention of classified documents and conspiracy to obstruct justice, among other charges.

On Tuesday, Cannon issued a five-page order that delays indefinitely the classified documents trial once scheduled for May 20 – less than two weeks from now – and which special counsel Jack Smith had hoped would be rescheduled to July 8 (per Politico).

Considering all the issues between prosecutor Smith and Trump’s defense team, “finalization of a trial date at this juncture … would be imprudent and inconsistent with the court’s duty to fully and fairly consider the pre-trial issues,” Cannon’s order says. 

Theoretically, the case could still go to trial before the end of 2024, some legal pundits say, but that would require Cannon to run out of ways to slow the process.

•••

Zelenskyy’s Latest Threat – The narrative behind Ukraine’s resilient efforts to keep Russia from taking over the country tells of a united effort by its military and its public. That ignores the fact that ethnic Russians make up the largest minority in Ukraine, reportedly 17.3% in 2001, according to Wikipedia. What’s more, Ukraine’s military is not impervious to Russian infiltration. 

On Monday, Ukraine’s security service said it had uncovered a network of Russia’s federal security service, the FSB, whose agents were preparing yet another assassination attempt of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, according to The Kyiv Independent. In addition, two Ukraine state security administration (UDO) colonels have reportedly been detained for leaking classified information to Russia. 

According to the Independent’s report, Zelenskyy told The Sun last November he had survived “at least” five assassination attempts.

--TL

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TUESDAY 5/7/24

Israel Attacks Rafah -- The Israeli government did not agree to the same ceasefire deal Hamas agreed to Monday, so Israeli Defense Forces took control of Rafah anyway and have blocked off aid flow, a border official told The Washington Post. Meanwhile, Egypt has denounced the IDF's military operations in Rafah.

Putin to Out-Stalin Stalin -- It's inauguration day for Russian dictator Vladimir Putin's fifth term as president, NPR reports. If he fills out the entire term, Putin will have led Russia longer than Joseph Stalin. Most European Union nations boycotted Putin's inauguration ceremonies, Morning Edition says.

--TL

__________________________________________

MONDAY 5/6/24

UPDATE: Hamas has accepted a 42-day ceasefire deal proposed by Egypt and Qatar that would return 33 hostages, dead or alive, BBC News reports. The deal still awaits response from Israel, which says it will not call off its planned attack on Rafah.

Time is Up for Rafah – Cease fire talks between Hamas and Israel seems to have sputtered to a stall, again, and so the Israeli government Monday morning urged people to evacuate Rafah in southern Gaza (The Washington Post) as its military prepares for its long-threatened assault on the city. Hamas and Benjamin Netanyahu’s Israeli government are blaming each other for lack of progress in the negotiations.

•••

Speaker Under Pressure – House Democrats will join a majority of Republicans to block Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene’s (R-GA) motion to dismiss Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) this week, says NPR’s Morning Edition. 

House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-NY), told CBS News’ 60 Minutes Sunday, “Our view would traditionally be; ‘Let the other side work its own mess out.’ But when that mess starts to impact the ability to do the job on behalf of the American people, then the responsible thing at that moment might be to make clear that we will not allow the extremists to throw the Congress and the country into chaos.”

MTG has the backing in her threat of Reps. Thomas Massie (R-KY) and Paul Gosar (R-AZ), but Donald J. Trump, who received Johnson at Mar-a-Lago last week, is sitting this issue out as he tends to the trial over falsification of business records in connection with hush money payments.

Hindsight… We have to wonder whether former speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) would still be speaker and Trump wouldn’t be running for president again if McCarthy hadn’t had his pilgrimage to Mar-a-Lago less than two months after the January 6th attack on the United States Capitol.

•••

More Tears Over Trump? – The criminal trial in which former President Trump is charged with falsifying business records in an alleged attempt to put the "hush" into hush money continues Monday, with the alleged recipient of said hush money, adult film star Stormy Daniels, expected to testify this week, according to The New York Times. On Friday, former Trump spokeswoman and close White House advisor Hope Hicks broke down in tears, after describing the effect on Trump’s 2016 campaign when the infamous Access Hollywood tape surfaced.

•••

Feds Investigate Cuellar – Rep. Henry Cuellar (D-TX) and his wife were indicted last Friday on federal charges accusing them of accepting $600,000 in bribes from the country of Azerbaijan and a Mexican bank in exchange for political favors in Congress. Federal agents raided Cuellar’s office and the couple’s house Friday, just weeks before a runoff between two Republicans to challenge him in the general election, according to The Texas Tribune. Republicans Jay Furman and Lazaro Garza face each other in a May 28 runoff with the winner to challenge Cuellar November 5.

•••

Up on the Hill – Both chambers of Congress are in session Tuesday through Thursday. The full House only is in session Monday, while the full Senate is in session Friday.

--Compiled and edited by Todd Lassa

_____
COMMENTS: editors@thehustings.news

What’s Right

If former President Trump sticks with his challenge and current President Biden keeps his promise, the two will meet again after their parties’ summer conventions and before the November 5 election this fall to debate. 

Meanwhile, you can see how The Hustings got started nearly four years ago and get a good idea of how we work to keep all our readers out of any echo chambers by reading our first left-right commentary regarding the first Biden-Trump debates here. To comment on today’s front page and/or any other recent political news issues, please email editors@thehustings.news

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This is One of Three …

…columns, and if you landed here on your smartphone, you might think this is the center of The Hustings editorially. Not true -- that would be the center column. You might be able to see all three columns: left (liberal commentary), right (conservative commentary) and center (news/news aggregate and analysis) if you hold your smartphone horizontally. 

Best way to read us is on a computer screen or a notebook, though we will work in earnest these next few months leading up to the November 5 elections to correct our smartphone problem.

Meanwhile, why not take some time to let us know what you think of the news in the center column? We’d love to hear what you think of House Speaker Mike Johnson’s (R-LA) suggestion the National Guard be called in to control college student protests over the war in Gaza, as well as the International Criminal Court’s apparently imminent arrest warrant of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. 

Also please take a look at Pundit-at-Large Stephen Macaulay’s right-column piece, “The Biden Shuffle”, which is sure to trigger your reactions, positive or negative. 

There’s plenty more controversy in recent days’ center column. Scroll down with the far-right trackbar to read those, and then further down the center column with the trackbar to its immediate right to catch up.

Then email your opinions to editors@thehustings.news and please let us know whether you lean left, or right, so we can post your comments in the appropriate column.

_____

…meanwhile…

The U.S. economy added a moderate 175,000 jobs in April, the Labor Department reported Friday. This slowing compares with 303,000 jobs added in March and has sparked a rally on Wall Street. The unemployment rate inched up to 3.9%, from a 3.8% level in March. This might be good news for the economy overall as the Federal Reserve remains concerned about inflation sticking above 3%, and will not likely cut interest rates before autumn, at best. Job gains were reported for health care, social assistance, transportation and warehousing. (Chart: Bureau of Labor Statistics)

FRIDAY 5/3/24

Biden: Stop the Chaos – President Biden took a sort of middle ground in a brief, unscheduled White House address on pro-Palestinian campus protests that have resulted in more than 2,000 arrests to date, according to NBC News. 

“There’s a right to protest, but not a right to chaos,” Biden said. “People have the right to get an education, the right to get a degree, the right to walk across the campus safely without fear of being arrested.” 

As the protests threaten to spill over to the Democratic National Convention in Chicago this August, Biden rejected deploying the National Guard as some Republicans have suggested, The New York Times reports. This as Republicans hope to work the pro-Palestinian protests to their advantage in November as Democrats are working the abortion issue.

--TL

__________________________________________

THURSDAY 5/2/24

Campus Protests – New York City Mayor Eric Adams told NPR’s Morning Edition that 40% of Columbia University campus protesters of Israel’s war on Gaza are “outside agitators,” based on the arrests from when the city’s police removed students from an occupation of the school’s Hamilton Hall. Thousands of campus protesters have been arrested at campuses from the University of California Los Angeles – where police evacuated encampments Wednesday evening --  to Stony Brook on Long Island and Dartmouth in Hanover, New Hampshire. 

The question of when police will intervene in campus demonstrations varies by municipality and state, NPR reports. New York’s police department goes in only when a school calls for help, while at the University of Texas, state troopers have the support for intervention from Gov. Greg Abbott (R).

Meanwhile… The House Wednesday passed the Antisemitism Awareness Act, 320-91, Morning Edition reports. Introduced by Rep. Mike Lawler (R-NY), the bill defines antisemitism as “A certain perception of Jews, which may be expressed as hatred toward Jews.” Opposition to the bill consisted of 70 Democrats and 21 Republicans.

•••

1864 Arizona Ban Lifted – Arizona’s 1864 abortion ban was repealed by the state senate Wednesday, 16-14, with two Republicans joining all 14 Democrats in the vote (per The New York Times). Gov. Katie Hobbs (D) was expected to sign the repeal Thursday, which will replace the 1864 law with a 2022 ban on abortions after 15 weeks, but with no exceptions for rape or incest.

•••

Greene Motion – Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-GA) announced Wednesday she will introduce a motion to vacate Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) next week (per CQ Roll Call), despite support from House Democrats to vote it down. Or rather, according to MTG, because of it – she wants Democrats who support Johnson to go on-record with their districts’ voters. MTG so far has but two co-sponsors for her motion to vacate next week, Reps. Thomas Massie (R-KY) and Paul Gosar (R-AZ).

--TL

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MAY DAY 2024

Brown Deals With Protesters – The Brown Divest Coalition peacefully ended its week-long “Encampment for Gaza” at Brown University in Providence, Rhode Island, after university President Christina Paxson agreed to raise a divestment resolution at a corporation meeting in October, The Boston Globe reports. Paxson did not agree to demands to drop charges against 41 student protesters in an administration building last December, NPR reports, but the compromise contrasts with demonstrations at Columbia University in New York and the University of California Los Angeles where college administrators called in police to break up the protests Tuesday.

•••

Florida Ban – Florida’s strict six-week abortion ban replacing the state’s 15-week ban takes effect Wednesday, ahead of a November ballot measure to overturn the new rule. Clinic operators say the six-week ban, which makes exceptions only in rare instances, will affect at least 40,000 women per year, Politico reports. More than 6,000 women from Alabama and Georgia, two nearby states that already have very strict abortion bans, had travelled to Florida for abortions since the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade.

•••

Culture Wars Polled – In a clear sign of the culture wars that threaten to deepen the chasm between the two major parties for a long time to come, an NPR/PBS News Hour/Marist poll released Wednesday finds that 47% of Democrats say the “rise of fascism and extremism” is their most important issue in the upcoming election, while 36% of Republicans say it is “lack of values.” Those issues for either party are by far the number-one concerns, Morning Edition reports. Republicans’ number-one concern is further described as the need to instill “children with faith in God, teaching them that hard work and discipline pay off..."

--TL

__________________________________________

TUESDAY 4/30/24

Stormy Weather – The Access Hollywood video in which Donald J. Trump describes his “grab-them-by” method of assaulting women raised interest in squelching Stormy Daniels’ story of an affair with the 2016 Republican presidential nominee, Keith Davidson, attorney for the adult film star testified Tuesday in the ex-president’s criminal trial in which he is charged with falsified business records. (Trump continues to deny the affair.) Daniels said that after the video’s release, he had “sometimes frantic” conversations with longtime fixer Michael Cohen as the November election approached, The New York Times reports.

In contempt: The judge in State of New York v. Donald John Trump, Juan Merchan, early Tuesday held the ex-president in contempt for violating a gag order by attacking witnesses in the case, including Daniels and Cohen. Fine for the nine counts is $9,000, and Merchan has issued a warning that Trump could go to jail if he continues such attacks.

Merchan gave Trump until 2:15 p.m. to remove five comments from Truth Social and two from his campaign website, which he did, NPR’s All Things Considered reports.

•••

Timely Interview – The Atlantic devoted an entire issue written by several contributors and staff journalists with “If Trump Wins” earlier this year. Further warning of an authoritarian second term is on the latest cover of Time magazine, with Eric Cortellessa’s two interviews with Donald J. Trump in Palm Beach, Florida, “How Far Trump Would Go.”

Trump confirmed to Cortellessa he would be willing to build migrant detention camps and deploy the U.S. military in deporting undocumented aliens from the United States, Cortellessa writes. He “might” fire U.S. attorneys who refuse his orders to prosecute someone; “It would depend on the situation.”

There’s much more, which every U.S. voter, Republican, Democratic, independent and third party, should read here. We’ll leave you with this quote from a sidebar to the cover story …

“If you look at the Biden administration, they’re sort of against anybody depending on certain views. They’re against Catholics. They’re against a lot of different people … I think there is a definite anti-white feeling in this country, and that can’t be allowed either.”

--TL

__________________________________________

MONDAY 4/29/24

Arrest ‘Both Sides’? – As House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) has suggested sending the National Guard to college campuses to control pro-Palestinian student protests, the International Criminal Court is preparing an arrest warrant on charges related to the war on Hamas in Gaza for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, NPR’s Morning Edition reports. 

“If this is not contained quickly and these threats and intimidation are not stopped, the National Guard should be called in,” Johnson said, of the protests late last week.

The Israeli government’s war on Gaza is becoming to President Biden’s re-election prospects what the majority conservative Supreme Court’s ruling on Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health is to Republicans in November’s elections. 

But Sen. J.D. Vance (R-OH), who was mentioned in Sunday’s New York Times as possibly the leading candidate to become Donald J. Trump’s running mate, told Fox News Sunday host Shannon Bream, “I don’t know if you need to call in the National Guard, maybe you just call in the police.” 

Sen. Tim Kaine (D-VA) told anchor Kristen Welker on Meet the Press, “I think calling in the National Guard to college campuses for so many people would recall what was done during the Vietnam War, and it did not end well.”

Meanwhile … the Biden White House continues in earnest to broker a cease-fire between Israel and Hamas, with Secretary of State Antony Blinken meeting early in the week with top Arab diplomats, according to The New York Times. Blinken has been urging Hamas leadership to accept Israel’s “extraordinarily generous” cease-fire offer. 

That offer… Includes releasing “thousands” of Palestinians held in Israel, and a 40-day ceasefire, according to the BBC.

WCK returns to Gaza … Chef Jośe Anďres’ World Central Kitchen has resumed food delivery to Gaza, The Washington Postreports, less than a month after seven of its workers trying to deliver food to Palestinians were killed in a drone attack by the Israeli military. 

•••

About that Pennsylvania Primary – Pundits in Pennsylvania are still talking about former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley’s showing in last Tuesday’s primary election, in which she got 16.6% of the vote against ex-President Trump despite having ended her candidacy – or should we say suspending her candidacy? -- March 6. A bit more startingly, Haley got 20% of the vote in heavily Republican Lancaster County, LNP/Lancaster Online reports. 

Incumbent President Biden did not have an easy time of it in the swing state himself, however, where Rep. Dean Philips (D-MN), who also dropped out of the race March 6, got 5.4% of Lancaster County’s Democratic votes. Both county breakouts to LNP were courtesy Berwood Yost, director of Franklin & Marshall College’s Center for Opinion Research and the Floyd Institute for Public Policy.

•••

Read the Right Column – In “The Biden Shuffle,” Pundit-at-Large Stephen Macaulay discusses the president’s low step height and his low approval rating. >>>>>>>>>>>>

•••

Up on the Hill – Both the House and Senate are in-session Monday through Thursday.

--Compiled and edited by Todd Lassa

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The Biden Shuffle

By Stephen Macaulay

According to the National Institute on Aging, “Many older adults experience problems with balance and dizziness. Problems can be caused by certain medications, balance disorders, or other medical conditions. Balance problems are one reason older people fall.”

Which goes to point out as to why, rather than having a high foot lift and knee bend, there is simply a shuffle in the walking gait of older people. By keeping the feet closer to terra firma, the potential of taking a tumble is reduced.

Joe Biden is an 81-year-old man, certainly by definition an “older adult.” And when he walks, there is often an appearance of an awkward shuffle.

When walking across the White House lawn to Marine One, Axios reports, Biden is no longer going solo where his gait can be seen, but he is now surrounded by a gaggle of others, thereby adding some cover for the shuffle.

While the gerontological truth on the ground isn’t changed, it is at least disguised, thereby providing less attention to Biden’s balance.

But what ought to put Biden off balance — even if he is sitting down — is this from Gallup’s Jeffrey M. Jones: “President Joe Biden averaged 38.7% job approval during his recently completed 13th quarter in office, which began on Jan. 20 and ended April 19. None of the other nine presidents elected to their first term since Dwight Eisenhower had a lower 13th-quarter average than Biden.”

To put that into context: the Eisenhower measure is from 68 years ago, solidly in the AARP category.

What’s more, there’s this about that 38.7% performance: “The latest quarterly average for Biden is technically the lowest of his presidency to date, though not meaningfully different from the previous quarter’s 39%.”

In other words, just as Biden’s ability to stroll is probably decreasing, it appears that his approval is, too.

As we all know, “past performance is not indicative of future results.” But if you are a betting person there is something to be seriously considered, then and now. Jones points out: “Three of the four prior presidents who had 13th-quarter approval averages below 50% lost their reelection bids. . .” wait for it. . . “with Obama the exception.” If there is ever a case where Biden would mutter “Thanks, Obama,” this is it.

There are just a couple of quarters until the results polling that will matter the most to Biden will be revealed.

Unless he can turn things around in a meaningful way, he won’t be kicking up his heels on November 5. Assuming that’s physically possible.

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COMMENTS: editors@thehustings.news

This Might Not Be the Column…

…you’re looking for. This is the left column meant for left/liberal/progressive commentary that, unfortunately, comes up first if you find The Hustings on your smartphone. We will be working on a fix for this in the coming months.

If you’ve found us on your computer screen, the home page consists of a center column, which posts political news/news analysis that sets up commentary in the left column and in the right – conservative/right-wing – column. We want everybody who comes to this site to read the three columns no matter what their political leanings (unlike at echo chambers such as, say, X-Twitter, in which you read only the news & commentary you follow). 

We encourage you to contribute to the left or right columns by emailing your comments to editors@thehustings.news and please tell us in the subject line whether you are liberal or conservative, so we can post your comments in the appropriate column.

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…meanwhile…

Real Gross Domestic Product rose a dismal 1.6% in the first quarter of this year, compared with Q4 2023’s strong 3.4% rise, the Bureau of Economic Analysis reported Thursday. The report says consumer spending and housing investments continued to push up GDP. 

FRIDAY 4/29/24

Hocus SCOTUS — Savvy Supreme Court observers warn that Thursday’s oral arguments over a lower court ruling rejecting ex-President Trump’s claim of post-presidential presidential immunity in United States v. Donald J. Trump do not automatically equate to the ultimate ruling. But even the savviest observers anticipate a partial loss for special counsel Jack Smith in his election obstruction case related to Trump’s alleged plot to overturn the 2020 presidential election.

SCOTUS “appears skeptical” of U.S. District Judge Tanya Chutkan’s ruling on the immunity issue, SCOTUSblog’s Amy Howe writes, while NPR’s Nina Totenberg said five of the nine justices appear ready to send the issue back to the lower court, assuring a trial would not happen by November 5. 

On NPR’s Morning Edition Nina Totenberg posited it’s likely “court observers didn’t properly account for the personal experience of the conservative justices,” who spent much of their early careers outside the Beltway and saw Republican presidents become “targets of harassment” by Democratic majorities in both chambers of Congress. 

For those five conservative justices it comes down to the question of Trump’s official actions versus personal actions. This court majority appeared to be considering sending the issue back to U.S. District Judge Tanya Chutkan to have her cut out the parts of Smith’s indictment that charge Trump for “official” actions. 

The sixth conservative, Justice Amy Coney Barrett, appeared more skeptical of the arguments of Trump’s attorney, John Sauer. (Michael Dreeban, an attorney from Smith’s office, represented the U.S. in the oral arguments).

•••

Right Heads Fed? — Assuming Donald J. Trump’s courtroom maneuvers work for him (as they have, generally, for decades) and he manages to win a second term (far from being a long-shot at this point) all the ex-president’s men (and women?) will try to hand him some level of control over the Federal Reserve. The Wall Street Journal reports that Trump’s allies are “quietly drafting proposals” that would suck power out of the Fed if their leader gets a second term in the White House. However, the report says, a divide is “deepening” between factions that would draft an incremental policy and those that would give the president a role in setting interest rates.

You may remember that during his term Trump was jawboning the Fed to keep rates low while the Fed’s board was considering a hike in order to jump-start ultra-low inflation levels and help boost the economy.

--TL

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Trump's Big Day -- THURSDAY 4/25/24

Trump’s Immunity Claim – The Supreme Court was to begin hearing arguments 10 a.m. Eastern time Thursday on ex-President Trump’s circular claim that he could not be prosecuted for crimes committed while president, including his attempts to remain president despite Joe Biden’s election victory (per NPR’s Morning Edition). SCOTUS’ decision will determine whether special counsel Jack Smith can go forward with his January 6th/election obstruction case, which is to be tried in federal court in the District of Columbia. 

Listen to oral arguments on NPR here.

Trump’s lawyers in the case, led by attorney John Lauro, claim the steps Trump took to block certification of Biden’s electors were part of his official duties and therefore he cannot be prosecuted, according to NPR’s Nina Totenberg. 

Meanwhile… Ex-National Enquirer publisher David Pecker’s testimony in Trump’s hush money payments case continues in Manhattan. The case before SCOTUS will have no effect on this case, State of New York v. Donald John Trump because it is not a federal case.

•••

Arizona Indicts Trump Allies – Donald J. Trump has been named an unindicted co-conspirator in a 58-page grand jury indictment charging 18 of his allies with efforts to subvert the 2020 election in the state. The only names in the indictment are of 11 Republicans who allegedly posed as Arizona’s electors, but Politico among other outlets has identified former White House Chief of Staff Mark Meadows and attorneys Rudy Giuliani and Boris Epshteyn. Attorney Ken Chesebro is “unindicted co-conspirator number four,” according to Politico.

Other names redacted but made obvious by the indictment’s descriptions include attorneys John Eastman, Jenna Ellis and Christina Bobb, as well as Trump 2020 campaign operative Mike Roman. Michigan prosecutors on Wednesday revealed that Trump is an unindicted co-conspirator in its own election subversion investigation.

--Compiled and edited by Todd Lassa

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Pecker Meets Hamilton

By Stephen Macaulay

While some people are getting all excited about how things are going in the Trump hush-money trial in Manhattan, figuring that soon the former president will be wearing an outfit that matches his hair, this is perhaps one of those cases of mass sociogenic illness, where a group of people have the same collective delusion.

Consider the testimony given by David Pecker, the former publisher of the National Enquirer, the tabloid that has done more for alien and Elvis sightings than any dozen other outlets.

Pecker stated, “I said I would run positive stories about Trump, and I would publish negative stories about his opponent.”

Aren’t we in Casablanca territory here, with Captain Renault’s “I’m shocked, shocked to find that gambling is going on in here”?

Many of the people who visualize Trump being transported to Riker’s Island have now-fading Hamilton posters on their walls. They see the so-called “catch-and-kill” approach—buy a story and then not use it—as being somehow in itself completely unnatural. While this is not to say that it wasn’t used by Team Trump for reasons that may be proven to be felonious, there is nothing intrinsically nefarious about the practice.  It is a means by which one can get an edge over one’s competitors by preventing them from having access to whatever the story may be.

Clearly the National Enquirer was pretty good at this: Can you think of the name of one of its competitors?

Going back to those who are generally humming the lyrics “I am not throwing away my shot/Hey you I’m just like my country/I’m young scrappy and hungry” as they go for a champagne brunch at the local bistro: Alexander Hamilton, James Madison and John Jay wrote what has become known as “The Federalist Papers,” which were published in three New York newspapers — The Independent Journal, the New York Packet, and The Daily Advertiser — on behalf of the yet-to-be-ratified Constitution.

In other words, they worked to run positive stories about the Constitution while running negative stories about the Articles of Confederation.

That’s just how it is — and how it long has been. It is dangerously naïve to think otherwise.

The case is far from being a fait accompli. While it may seem likely that Trump was personally involved in signing off on the falsifying of business records for purposes of covering up some untoward behavior — after all, he is famously known for micromanaging the activities of The Trump Organization, the inverse of how he operated within the federal government — “likely” isn’t “certainly.”

Making uninformed conclusions about thing like Pecker’s testimony is nothing more than clutching at straws—which may end up being fulsome folly.

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Not the Right Column

If you have found The Hustings on a smartphone, you probably came to this column first. You might think we are a left-leaning publication.

This isn’t what we had intended. All first-time readers should land on a three-column page with political news and analysis in the center column, conservative commentary in the right column and liberal commentary on the left. We are for open, civil discourse, not echo chambers.

Unfortunately, we are not there yet. We are getting by with a political news site that is best read on a computer screen, even if most people do not read their news in this manner. So, we’re asking for your help.Please send us a note telling us about how you found The Hustings. This will help us decide which fixes, changes and updates get priority. Send your comments and suggestions to editors@thehustings.news

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…meanwhile…

The Senate Tuesday voted 80-19 Tuesday (per The Hill) to limit debate on the foreign aid supplemental that Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) ushered through the House last weekend. "It's not too late," Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY, above) said. "We don't have to give up on Ukraine. And we are not going to."

PASSOVER 2024

UPDATE: Judge Juan Merchan did not immediately rule on prosecution's request to hold the ex-president in contempt for violating the gag order in the criminal case alleging falsification of business records to cover up a hush money payment, but the judge did have a "heated" discussion with lead defense attorney Todd Blanche over the issue, according to The New York Times. District Attorney Alvin Bragg filed a complaint that Trump made 10 public statements on Truth Social and his presidential campaign website that attacked two likely witnesses, former fixer Michael Cohen, and adult film star Stormy Daniels.

"You've presented nothing," Merchan told Blanche. "You're losing all credibility with the court."

More Pecker ... Former National Enquirer publisher David Pecker testified about the publication's relationship with Trump a decade ago, according to The Guardian: "They asked me what can I do -- and what could my magazines could do -- to help the [2016 election] campaign. ... I said what I would do is I would run or publish positive stories about Mr. Trump and I would publish negative stories about his opponents, and I said that I would also be the eyes and ears because I know that the Trump Organization had a very small staff."

But wait, there's more ... Pecker also testified that the National Enquirer made up the story connecting Sen. Ted Cruz's (R-TX) father to JFK assassin Lee Harvey Oswald, NBC News reports. Cruz, who long ago joined the gaggle of Capitol Hill MAGA acolytes, told NBC he's "not interested in revisiting ancient history."

Contemptability -- Prosecutors in Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg's criminal case against Donald J. Trump have asked Judge Juan Merchan to hold the ex-president in contempt for violating a gag order barring attacks on witnesses, prosecutors, jurors, court staff and their families (per The New York Times). The judge is expected to rule on the request by Tuesday. Trump, who is on trial in a 34-count indictment for falsifying business records to cover up sex scandals, has attacked upcoming prosecution witnesses Michael Cohen, his former attorney-fixer, and the adult film star known as Stormy Daniels among others, on his Truth Social "media" outlet.

The ex-prez has not attacked, so far, the prosecution's first witness, David Pecker, who a decade ago as publisher of the National Enquirer allegedly applied the tabloid's "catch and kill" method to kill negative press for Trump prior to the 2016 election.

--TL

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MONDAY 4/22/24

Speaker Needs Democrats – Finally, the House has passed $60.8 billion in new aid to Ukraine for its defense against Russia’s invasion. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy thanked Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA), President Biden and the American people, and told NBC News’ Meet the Press in an exclusive, via interpreter, that the aid will “strengthen Ukraine and send a powerful message it will not be the second Afghanistan.” 

The House vote on the Ukraine aid package was 311-112, all of the opposition consisting of Republicans. Johnson will need at least 112 Democrats to vote to keep him as speaker if Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-GA) goes forth with a motion to vacate.

“America last,” MTG said after the vote. “That’s all this is every single day, America last,” CQ Roll Call reports.

As House Foreign Affairs Committee Chairman Michael McCaul (R-TX) warned recently in an interview with Puck News, Russian propaganda has “infected a good chunk of my party’s base.” 

Also passed in the supplemental is a $26.4 billion package for Israel, at 366-58, with 37 Democrats and 21 Republicans voting “no.” Some of that money goes to Gaza as humanitarian aid.

An $8.1 billion package for Taiwan and other Indo-Pacific countries passed 384-34, and a “sidecar” of related issues including unfreezing of $5 billion Russian assets for Ukraine and tougher sanctions on Russia, Iran and China. 

These will be bundled into one supplemental for the Senate, which is to begin procedurals on it at 1 p.m. Tuesday according to Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY). For Zelenskyy, it cannot come soon enough.

Addendum: We'd be remiss to ignore this cover headline from the Sunday, April 21 edition of the New York Post, the erstwhile pro-Trump tabloid owned by Rupert Murdoch's News Corp: "Nyet, Moscow Marjorie." The subhead, next to a head-shot of Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-GA) photoshopped wearing one of those furry Russian winter caps, says "GOP rebels defeated as House passes $61B in Ukraine aide."

--Compiled and edited by Todd Lassa

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Romney on Trump’s Hush Money

[Sen. Mitt Romney (R-UT)]

Sen. Mitt Romney (R-UT), who is retiring from the Senate after the November elections, has weighed in on the hush money Donald J. Trump paid to adult film star Stormy Daniels. The payment is at center of criminal case alleging Trump sought to influence the 2016 presidential election. The ex-president denies he had an affair with Daniels, but Romney said this (per The Independent): "I think everyone has made their own assessment of President Trump's character. And as far as I know you don't pay someone $130,000 not to have sex with you."

•••

What’s your take on the House passing supplemental spending on Ukraine, Israel and Taiwan? Should House Democrats support Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA), or should he lose out to Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene’s (R-GA) threat to issue a motion to vacate?

What’s your opinion of House Foreign Affairs Committee Chairman Michael McCaul (R-TX) warning that Russian propaganda has “infected a good chunk” of the GOP base?

Email your comments on these and other newsy issues to editors@thehustings.news and please indicate whether you lean right or left in the comments section, so we make sure to post your thoughts in the appropriate column.

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