‘Dead Heat’ for Senate Majority

With less than a week to go before the midterm elections and plenty of early ballots already cast, especially in Georgia, Texas and California according to NPR, the Republican vs. Democratic race for control of the Senate remains in a dead-heat, say the latest data from FiveThirtyEight.

The GOP needs just one net seat to take control of the Senate. Most polls show the Democratic Party is in for a heavy Republican wave in the House of Representatives. Considering that inflation and the economy are at the top of most voter’s lists of concerns and throwing in the history of a sitting president’s party’s losses in midterms, the possibility of holding the Senate at 50-50 plus Vice President Harris would be considered a rare victory for the Democrats.

Still, the party seems to be holding out hope there is an upset in the works for the House majority if those early voters include a lot of Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents who are still upset about the Supreme Court’s decision on Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health and its overturning of Roe v. Wade.

FiveThirtyEight says the GOP’s best chance of picking up Senate seats are in Nevada and Georgia, while Democrats are still holding out hope for Pennsylvania, even after John Fetterman’s shaky debate performance against Dr. Mehmet Oz last month. Meanwhile, Arizona and New Hampshire have strong Democratic incumbents while GOP-held seats in North Carolina, Ohio and Wisconsin are “close, but likely Republican.”

Two Wild Cards: Then there’s Utah and Iowa. Seven-term Sen. Charles E. Grassley (R-IA), 89, is facing an unusually strong challenge from Democrat Michael Franken. Incumbent Mike Lee has failed to secure an endorsement from fellow Republican Utah Sen. Mitt Romney and leads the polls by only the margin of error, according to FiveThirtyEight, over former Republican presidential candidate Evan McMullen, who is running as an independent who says he will not caucus with either party, if elected.

--TL

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COMMENTS: editors@thehustings.news

261K Jobs Added Last Month

The U.S. economy added 261,000 jobs in October, signaling a “softening” of the economy as the Federal Reserve continues to hike interest rates in order to ease inflation. The number is a bit higher than the low-200s number some economists had predicted.

The jobs number was low enough to tick up the unemployment rate, to 3.7% from a 3.5% rate in August and September. But any unemployment number under 4% is still almost unnaturally low. The combo of a better-than-expected jobs increase and two-tenths uptick in the unemployment rate also is seen as a sign the Fed’s aggressive interest rate increases could result in a “soft landing” instead of a 2023 recession.

The Labor Department reported job gains in health care, professional and technical services, and manufacturing.

•••

Trump Marks Calendar for November 14 – Donald J. Trump’s “inner circle” are targeting November 14 as the date the former president will announce his run for the 2024 GOP presidential election, Jonathan Swan scoops in Axios Friday. The potential date comes after the midterms and before Florida’s Republican Gov. Ron DeSantis would announce his own candidacy and challenge Trump. Swan tells MSNBC’s Morning Joe that Trump’s team will use the date to schedule a series of rallies and appearances and take credit for the election victories by the ex-president’s endorsees.

The date remains tentative, Swan emphasizes, as it is very likely control of the Senate will have not been determined six days after the midterms. If neither incumbent Democrat Raphael Warnock nor Trump-endorsed Republican challenger Herschel Walker reach at least 50% of the vote in Georgia’s Senate race, for example, they will face each other again in a runoff scheduled for December 6.

•••

Confirming the Obvious – United Nations inspectors have found no evidence of “dirty bombs” being developed by Ukraine, NPR reports. The UN inspection was made under dubious circumstances, as it was a claim made by Russia to divert attention from its own atrocities over its invasion of the country. With the UN report, only Vladimir Putin and his allies will continue to push the false dirty bomb story.

Meanwhile: Ukrainian officials have signaled an assault to take back its Kherson region “could be imminent,” The Washington Post reports, which could become the “best test” of whether Russia will hold any significant piece of territory after its February invasion.

--Compiled and edited by Todd Lassa

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'Democracy on the Ballot' (THU 11/3/22)

President Biden called on voters to consider the future of our republic when casting ballots in the midterm elections, in an address Wednesday evening from Washington’s Union Station. His speech began with a detailed description of the attack the prior Friday on Paul Pelosi, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s husband. Biden blamed former President Trump for ongoing threat to American democracy in a speech that will be seen as political, especially by Fox News and media outlets to its right.

“Democracy is on the ballot” in the November 8 midterms, Biden said. “So today I appeal to all Americans regardless of party to meet this moment of national and generational importance. We must vote knowing what’s at stake and not just the policy of the moment.”

Recent polls have shown that while the future of American democracy is an underlying issue in the midterms it is not as important to most voters as inflation and the economy. The fear here is that the current 8.5% inflation rate will help propel election deniers into office and potentially give them power over the way future elections are conducted.

•••

Fed Rates Up Another ¾ Point – As every professional- and armchair economist had predicted, the Federal Reserve raised its “key policy rate” by 75 basis points for the fourth meeting in a row, indicating it is not done with its attempt to tighten the economy and lower inflation, the investment site Seeking Alpha reports. That brings it to the current rate of 3.75%, says Marketplace, which notes that Chairman Jerome Powell said the Fed may slow increases “very soon,” as early as its next meeting, or the meeting after that.

Which does not amount to the much-expected “Fed pivot,” says Marketplace’s Kai Risdahl. The next Fed board meeting is December 13-14, Risdahl says, and there will be a “whole lot” of economic data out between now and then.

Compiled and edited by Todd Lassa

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COMMENTS: editors@thehustings.news

Kinzinger, Cheney No Heroes

ICYMI, Rep. Adam Kinzinger (R-IL) was asked on MSNBC’s Morning Joe the other day why it is “so hard for Republicans to speak out” against the attempted murder of Paul Pelosi, husband of House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-CA), allegedly by apparent QAnon fan David DePape last weekend. [DePape has pleaded ‘not guilty’ to all charges related to the attack.]

“Because we are close to election,” he replied, “and the new view is, you never admit defeat, you never back off …”

Referring to himself and fellow Republican on the Select Committee to Investigate the January 6^th Attack on the United States Capitol, Rep. Liz Cheney, Kinzinger continued; “By the way, Liz and I are not courageous. There’s no strength in this. We’re just surrounded by cowards. … It looks like courage when it’s barely your duty.”

Cheney may be no hero, but Pundit-at-Large Stephen Macaulay singles out the former as among the rare “Respectable Republicans” in his column below. Scroll down with the trackbar on the far-right to read Macaulay’s latest column.

Comment in the box below or in the left column – whichever is most appropriate to your political leaning – or email editors@thehustings.news.

--TL

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Free-For-All Hellscape is On

Days after Elon Musk purchased Twitter and claimed it would not become a “free-for-all hellscape” under his watch, the World’s Richest Man/Tesla and SpaceX CEO/free-speech absolutist took to his new media toy to counter a tweet by Hillary Clinton that blasts the Republican Party for “creating a toxic environment that lays the groundwork for violence against politicians” (per theDaily Beast). The 2016 Democratic presidential candidate was commenting on last Friday’s attack of Paul Pelosi, 82, husband to the House speaker, at their San Francisco home.

San Francisco Police Chief William Scott told reporters last Friday that Bay Area resident David DePape, 42, would be charged with attempted homicide, assault with a deadly weapon, elder abuse, burglary and “several other additional felonies.” DePape, who has spread right-wing and QAnon conspiracy theories online according to the Daily Beast, allegedly shouted “Where is Nancy? Where is Nancy?” during the attack (Rep. Pelosi (D) was in Washington, DC at the time).

But that didn’t stop Twitter’s new owner from tweeting a response to Clinton’s tweet: “There is a tiny possibility there might be more to this story than meets the eye.” He then repeated a conspiracy theory completely devoid of any facts that involve Paul Pelosi and a male sex worker, which first appeared in a Santa Monica-based far-right “news” website whose name we won’t repeat here.

Musk deleted his tweet “more than six hours” after it first appeared, according to Daily Beast, though not before it had been retweeted “thousands and thousands of times.”

Threat to Both Parties: Congress members last week issued new warnings about their personal security last week.

“Somebody is going to die,” Rep. Debbie Dingell (D-MI) told Axios. But the threats, which have affected local election officials across the country as well as state and federal officials from both major parties. In 2017, Rep. Steve Scalise (R-LA) suffered life-threatening injuries from a gunman during practice for a congressional softball game and last June an armed man was arrested near Supreme Court Justice Brett Kavanaugh’s home in the Washington, D.C. metro area.

COMMENT: We’re on Twitter, still, @NewsHustings. Send us your examples of how Twitter has changed since Elon Musk’s takeover, my emailing editors@thehustings.news.

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Of Brazil and Israel

(PHOTO: Brazil's president-elect, Lula da Silva)

Transition Without Concession – President Jair Bolsonaro indicated he would hand over Brazil’s reins to the leftist candidate who defeated him in last Sunday’s runoff elections, NPR’s All Things Considered reports. In a news conference in Brasilia that lasted less than two minutes, Bolsonaro said “As a president and as a citizen I will continue to follow all the commandments of our constitution.”

Bolsonaro did not mention the name of Brazil’s president-elect, Luiz Inåcio Lula da Silva.

Eager for Victory Speech – Meanwhile in Israel, Benyamin Netanyahu, prime minister from 1996-99 and again from 2009-21, “holds an edge” in the country’s election, based on exit polls, The New York Times reports, and his Likud party already is celebrating ahead of the final count. If his lead holds, Netanyahu will reclaim power and preside over “one of the most right-wing governments in Israel’s history,” even as he is on trial for corruption charges related to his previous term as PM, according to the Times.

Netanyahu has at least one thing in common with Brazil’s defeated presidential candidate, Bolsonaro: A fondness for former U.S. President Donald Trump.

--TL

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Da Silva Wins Brazil; Will Bolsonaro Trump Him? (MON 11/1/22)

Leftist Luiz Inåcio da Silva (above) defeated first-term incumbent Jair Bolsonaro for president of the world’s fourth-largest democracy in Brazil’s run-off elections Sunday with 50.9% of the vote, the Associated Press reports. With 99.9% of the ballots counted, Brazil’s election authority proclaimed da Silva’s victory a mathematical certainty.

By 10 p.m. local time, three hours after the results were tabulated, the lights went out in the presidential palace in Sao Paolo without any hint of a concession from Bolsonaro, AP says. Before the run-off forced when da Silva led the October 2 election but was short of the 50% necessary for an outright win, Bolsonaro had made repeated and unproven Trumpian claims of potential electoral manipulation, and it remains uncertain whether he will concede without further fight.

Da Silva had served as Brazil’s president from 2003-10, but his imprisonment for corruption sidelined him in his 2018 bid for the presidency. He beat Bolsonaro by fewer than 2 million votes, the slimmest margin since Brazil’s return to democracy in 1985, according to AP. The country tabulates ballots electronically; thus the quick results Sunday.

Upshot: After September’s election of Giorgi Meloni’s far-right, nationalist Brothers of Italy party in that country, da Silva’s victory over nationalist Bolsonaro is considered a much-needed win for the future of liberal democracy around the world.

Compiled and edited by Todd Lassa

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COMMENT: editors@thehustings.news

Reasonable Republicans?

By Stephen Macaulay

The political TV ads in southeastern Michigan are relentless, excessively negative, and/or empty.

It is rather bizarre when an ad touting the virtues of Candidate A is immediately followed by an ad from the opposing side listing the deficiencies of Candidate A, something that in the advertising business is ordinarily considered a no-no: You will never see a Coke ad immediately followed by one for Pepsi because that would make neither soft drink purveyor very happy with the placement.

For example, Tudor Dixon (R) who is running for governor of Michigan, has made up ground against incumbent Gretchen Whitmer by running ads with high production values that mainly say she’ll do things like make sure children can attend school — and it seems she’s talking elementary school — without being exposed to books that might be disturbing (isn’t this something that local school boards decide, not governors?) or make sure that the problem of a fictitious job loss under the Whitmer administration will be remedied: When she took office in January 2019 the unemployment rate in Michigan was 4.2% and presently it is . . . 4.1%.

That is an example of the empty.

As for the excessively negative, the ads against Elissa Slotkin (D), who is running for reelection in Michigan’s 7^th District against state Sen. Tom Barrett (R), make it seem as though she has escaped from Bedlam or is masterfully corrupt: the lunacy and larceny simply don’t track. But one must not actually think about this stuff, right?

Meanwhile, Slotkin is running ads about family values and job creation — things that Republicans used to promote.

What makes the Slotkin-Barrett matchup more than parochially interesting is because Slotkin is the first Democrat that Liz Cheney (R) has officially endorsed.

According to a statement that was first received from Cheney by the Detroit Free Press, Cheney wrote:

•"I have come to know Elissa as a good and honorable public servant who works hard for the people she represents, wants what's best for the country, and is in this for the right reasons."

•"While Elissa and I have our policy disagreements, at a time when our nation is facing threats at home and abroad, we need serious, responsible, substantive members like Elissa in Congress."

“Good and honorable public servant.”

“Elissa and I have our policy disagreements.”

Cheney, with those observations, is proving herself to be a Rational Republican, someone who understands that the nature of politics is to have policy disagreements but that those disagreements don’t need to devolve into making things up, and into rhetoric more than tinctured with bile.

Once upon a time the GOP could have been considered the party of responsibility. They were not just the adults in the room, but the adults who were well into their careers and who dressed for dinner. (Sometimes younger adults, a.k.a., the Democrats, would have to upset the elders with some fresh ideas.)

The documented end of Responsible Republicans is the Republican National Committee’s “Resolution Regarding the Republican Party Platform,” adopted prior to the 2020 Republican National Convention.

It concludes:

RESOLVED, That the Republican Party has and will continue to enthusiastically support the President’s America-first agenda;

RESOVLVED, That the 2020 Republican National Convention will adjourn without adopting a new platform until the 2024 Republican National Convention;

RESOLVED, That the 2020 Republican National Convention calls on the media to engage in accurate and unbiased reporting, especially as it relates to the strong support of the RNC for President Trump and his Administration; and

RESOLVED, That any motion to amend the 2016 Platform or to adopt a new platform, including any motion to suspend the procedures that will allow doing so, will be ruled out of order.

So it comes down to an intellectual exercise that is about as taxing as eating a bag of potato chips.

I wonder what Cheney’s effect will be on Slotkin’s fortune. Thanks to her work on the January 6 Committee Cheney is widely respected by Democrats who will also acknowledge that they may have “policy disagreements” with her. But Slotkin will get the Democrats’ votes, anyway.

Those who “continue to enthusiastically support the [ex-] President’s America-first agenda” — and I dare say that outside of “U.S.A.” rally chants with pumped firsts, precisely what that “agenda” was isn’t exactly clear — will vote Barrett.

Which leaves independents and those who used to think they were Republicans. How does Cheney influence them?

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COMMENTS: editors@thehustings.news

Sanders Stumps

Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) has hit the hustings “to make his closing midterm pitch,” Rolling Stone reports. He plans to visit key battlegrounds “where we think we could have the most impact,” Sanders says, including Pennsylvania, Nevada and Wisconsin where Democratic candidates for the Senate are in tight races with MAGA-hatted Republicans. Sanders also will visit Congressional districts where the Democratic Party has given up hope, such as South Texas.

“He’ll campaign on behalf of Senate candidates who aren’t planning on appearing alongside him,” Rolling Stone says.

Upshot: In other words, the self-described democratic-socialist will try to boost Democratic Senate candidates who are fighting off Republican challengers’ attacking them as too far left, a gambit that appears to be working for the MAGA candidates.

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COMMENTS: editors@thehustings.news

Q3 GDP Up 2.6%

Gross Domestic Product Swings Positive – After two negative GDP quarters in a row for the first half of 2022, GDP was on the rise again for the third quarter, up 2.6% according to the Commerce Department’s advanced estimate. This “primarily reflected increases in exports,” (bolstered by the strength of the U.S. dollar due to high inflation) “and consumer spending that were partially offset by a decrease in housing investment,” according to the Commerce Department’s Bureau of Economic Analysis.

Second-quarter GDP was off 0.6%.

•••

Big Early Voter Turnout -- As of October 26, georgiavoters.com has counted 1,123,329 early ballots for the November 8 midterm elections, compared with 743,772 at this same time in 2018, a 51% increase. According to The Washington Post mail-in ballots have “fallen off significantly,” per the Georgia Secretary of State’s office.

WaPo cites the Virginia Public Access Office that 411,000 voters have cast ballots early, more than the total number who voted there in 2018. But in North Carolina, the state’s 530,000 ballots cast is 60,000 fewer than this same point in 2018, while just 550,000 Texans have voted early, down from 695,000 by this time in ’18.

Elsewhere in Georgia: Ex-President Trump’s ultimate chief of staff, Mark Meadows (pictured), has been ordered by a South Carolina judge to travel to Atlanta to testify in Fulton County District Attorney Fani T. Willis’ investigation into election interference by Trump and his allies (per The New York Times). Meadows’ attorney James Bannister is said to be preparing an appeal on grounds the Fulton County grand jury behind the investigation does not have indictment authority.

--Compiled and edited by Todd Lassa

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COMMENTS: editors@thehustings.news

To MAGA or Not to MAGA

Donald J. Trump is poised to take big credit for any sort of Red Wave that hits the polls November 8, whether Republicans win only the House of Representatives, or both the House and Senate, Chris Cilizza writes in The Point! newsletter. Cilizza quotes a report by CNN colleague Gabby Orr that “some Republicans said he is likely to demand more credit than he’s owed,” and may use the midterm results as an excuse to announce his 2024 run for the GOP presidential nomination (he can expect that the Select Committee Investigating the January 6^th Attack on the United States Capitol will be dissolved by next January 2).

Or Not? — Hat tip to Cilizza for calling attention to former House Speaker Paul Ryan’s (R-WI) appearance on Fox Business, where he said; “The new swing voter in American politics is the suburban voter who doesn’t like Trump, but they like Republicans. So I think anybody not named Trump I think is much more likely to win the White House for us.”

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COMMENTS: editors@thehustings.news

Progs Retract Call to Negotiate with Putin

Letter Was Drafted Last Summer – The Progressive Congressional Caucus has retracted a letter sent to President Biden Monday urging him to engage in direct diplomatic relations with Russia over its invasion of Ukraine, NPR’s All Things Considered reports. Caucus Chair Rep. Pramila Jayapal (D-WA) announced the retraction and took responsibility for the letter, which she said was drafted June 30, before Ukrainian soldiers began taking back land claimed by Russian military forces.

Thirty Democratic lawmakers signed the letter June 30, and several wondered out loud Tuesday why it was sent out, according to Jayapal, “without vetting.” She said the letter was being conflated with Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy’s (R-CA) statement last week to Punchbowl News that House Republicans “would not write a blank check” to Ukraine if the GOP retakes the lower chamber after the midterms.

John Kirby, White House coordinator for Strategic Communications at the National Security Council responded to the letter, saying “Mr. Putin is in no mood to negotiate.”

Upshot: If Progressive Congressional Caucus members thought a letter urging negotiations with Putin was more reasonable and realistic last June than McCarthy’s statement last week, they were not paying attention to Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelinskyy.

--TL

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Momentum on the Left has Left (MON 10/24/22)

Democrats Peak Early – There is “growing angst” among Democratic leaders that concerns over inflation and the economy have overtaken the negative reaction to the Supreme Court’s decision overturning Roe v. Wade last summer in driving voters to the midterm polls, The Hill reports, echoing analyses at other mainstream news outlets. Consensus is that the assumption held before SCOTUS’ late-June 5-4 ruling on Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health that the traditional flip of the House and Senate majorities against the president’s party would indeed be the result of the November 8 elections.

The Polls: According to NBC News’ latest poll, 70% of voters show “high interest” in the midterms. However, that breaks down to 78% of Republicans expressing “high interest” versus 69% of Democrats, compared with 68% of Republicans and 66% Democrats in August telling pollsters they are highly interested in the elections. FiveThirtyEight reports a “dead heat” in the race for majority in the Senate, and a three-in-four chance Republicans will take over the House of Representatives.

•••

Discuss these issues in the left or right column Comment box or email editors@thehustings.news.

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…meanwhile…

Britain’s New PM – Speaking in front of 10 Downing Street after his appointment by King Richard III, Britain’s third prime minister in less than two months, Rishi Sunak, vowed to make economic stability his priority, The Guardian reports. Admitting that “mistakes were made” by predecessor Liz Truss, who announced a “mini-budget” with unfunded tax cuts during her 50 days as PM, Sunak warned of “difficult decisions to come.”

•••

More on the Trump Tapes – CNN cited this quote from Bob Woodward’s new audiobook, The Trump Tapes, in Jake Tapper’s lead-in to an interview with The Washington Post’s associate editor Tuesday night: “The record now shows that Trump has led – and continues to lead – a seditious conspiracy to overturn the 2020 election, which in effect is an effort to destroy democracy.”

--Edited by Todd Lassa

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(MON 10/24/22)

Iran and China – At the end of the week in which the Iranian government denied it was supplying kamikaze drones to Russia for its war on Ukraine – a denial no one other than Tehran and the Kremlin believe -- The Washington Post reported Saturday that some classified documents the FBI recovered from Donald J. Trump’s Mar-a-Lago last August 8 included highly sensitive secrets about Iran and China.

“If shared with others,” sources told the newspaper, “such information could expose intelligence-gathering methods that the United States wants to keep hidden from the world.” At least one of the documents details Iran’s missile program, WaPo reports.

The Woodward Tapes: These revelations come before release of The Trump Tapes: Bob Woodward’s Twenty Interviews with Donald Trump, available from Simon & Schuster Audio on Tuesday. Associate Editor Bob Woodward writes in his WaPo op-ed that the tapes “show why he is an unparalleled danger” to the U.S., siding with such dictators as North Korea’s Kim Jong Un and valuing loyalty from political associates over all else.

Connecting the Dots: Prospects the Biden administration will re-negotiate the 2015 Obama Iranian nuclear deal dismantled by Trump are surely over. But the whole of the Trump administration foreign “policy”, from swift cancellation of that agreement with Iran to the former president’s antagonism toward NATO and his admiration for Vladimir Putin must be examined in the Justice Department’s investigation of Mar-a-Lagogate.

--Compiled and edited by Todd Lassa

COMMENTS: editors@thehustings.news

At Least Three Shades of Red

Sunak is Britain’s Next PM – Rishi Sunak (above) is Britain’s prime minister after his last Conservative Party rival, Penny Mordaunt, dropped out of the race just before Monday nomination deadline, The Guardian reports. Scandal-plagued former PM Boris Johnson, for whom Sunak served as chancellor of the exchequer for two years, dropped out Sunday evening. Sunak was expected to take over for Liz Truss by Tuesday, giving her a total of 50 days as PM.

Note: Truss was on her way out pretty much from the time she took over for Johnson in August. Plagued with a higher inflation rate in the UK than in the US, in part blamed on Brexit administered by Johnson, she announced a huge tax cut evoking President Reagan’s “trickle-down” economics, which triggered a negative reaction by financial markets. That led to her embarrassing reversal of the economic plan.

Sunak, 42, the youngest British PM in nearly 200 years, is to be the third Conservative PM since Johnson won in 2019.

•••

McConnell v. McCarthy on Ukraine Aid – Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) has rebuked House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) for his warning that a GOP majority in the lower chamber will not “write a blank check” for Ukraine, per Newsweek. It’s the latest sign of a continued split between Senate and House Republicans over loyalty to Donald J. Trump and his relationship to Russian President Vladimir Putin.

“Russia continues escalating attacks on Ukraine’s infrastructure,” according to McConnell’s statement. “The lessons to us are clear. The Biden administration and Ukraine’s friends across the globe must be quicker and more proactive to get the aid they need.”

Last Tuesday, McCarthy told Punchbowl News that if the GOP retakes the House after November 8^th’s midterms, his caucus will balk at further military aid to Ukraine in its fight against the Russian invasion. Last May, 57 House Republicans led by uber-Trumpers Marjorie Taylor Greene, of Georgia, and Matt Gaetz, of Florida, voted against a $40-billion aid package for Ukraine.

Rep. Liz Cheney (R-WY), responding to a question at a Harvard Kennedy School event last Tuesday, said “I don’t know that I can say I was surprised, but I think it’s really disgraceful that today Minority Leader McCarthy suggested that if Republicans get the majority back that we will not continue to provide support for the Ukrainians.”

Dirty Bomb: After Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu accused Ukraine of preparing a “dirty” nuclear bomb, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy responded in his weekly Sunday evening address that only Russia was capable of using nuclear weapons in Europe, reports Voice of America.

•••

Discuss these issues in the right or left column Comment box or email editors@thehustings.news.

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Democrats Peaked Too Early

Politico-Morning Consult Poll … says voters overwhelmingly list the economy and inflation as their number-one concern. With the Consumer Price Index lingering over 8% and gas prices on the rise again, these voters polled say they trust the GOP far more than Democrats on this issue.

According to the poll, crime now beats abortion as the “second-tier” issue. This is a big shift from late-summer, when the Supreme Court decision in Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health and falling gas prices boosted Democrats in the midterms otherwise expected to go the way midterms usually go – against the president’s party.

Comment in the box below, or in the right column if you lean conservative, or email editors@thehustings.news.

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No News in Campaign Ads (TUE 10/18/22)

Democratic and Republican midterm campaigns are disguising mailers as newspapers at the same time many daily newspapers are folding, according to The Washington Post. While both major parties are mailing such “hybrids,” WaPo singles out a “quiet four-state $28 million election-year effort by the liberal leaning American Independent Foundation and partner groups aimed at swaying voters in the midterm elections.”

For example, AIF mailed (free, of course) a “12-page tabloid with a circulation of 953,000” monthly called “The Pennsylvania Independent” reaching about one in five of the state’s households “with articles from the Associated Press, crosswords, recipes and useful updates on which nearby towns had the lowest gas prices.”

Our take: Partisan groups like the AIF are taking advantage of a nation already increasingly being deprived of non-partisan journalistic scrutiny of local and state governments as real daily and weekly newspapers continue to fold. We hope no voters are being fooled by this tactic.

•••

COMMENTS: Go to the comment box in this column (or the one in the right column if that’s the way you lean) or email editors@thehustings.news and identify yourself as right or left in the subject line.

--TL

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Lettuce Wins

(THU 10/20/22)

British PM Resigns – Prime Minister Liz Truss has announced her resignation just 44 days into her term, the BBC reports. Her conservative party is to choose a successor by Friday, October 28. London’s Daily Star claimed victory for its 60-pence head of lettuce for outlasting the PM with the shortest term in British history.

--TL

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Biden Ups Midterm Ante on Abortion Issue (WED 10/19/22)

Codifying Roe v. Wade – President Biden announces Tuesday the first and foremost issue on his agenda for the second half of his term, if Democrats manage to hold majorities in both the House and Senate, will be a bill codifying Roe v. Wade, The Hill reports. Yes, that is a big “if”. With three weeks to go to the November 8 midterm elections, most polls show that intended voters rank inflation and the economy as their top issue, ahead of abortion rights.

The Hill helpfully notes that if Democrats do hold off the GOP in the House and Senate, such legislation could appear on or near the 50^th anniversary of the Supreme Court’s Roe decision, January 23, 1973 which was overturned last summer by SCOTUS’ ruling on Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization.

Upshot: The White House’s gambit will only work for Democrats if it boosts turnout by pro-abortion rights voters in the midterms, rather than counts on changing minds among those who will vote by November 8 anyway.

•••

Record Early Voting in Georgia – The state’s first day of in-person early voting broke the midterm election record by Tuesday morning, The Atlanta Journal-Constitution reports, with nearly 123,000 voters turning out. If Georgia is any indication of the turnout nationally, its likely polls on individual races across the states will prove to be way off the mark.

Meanwhile: Numerous news reports indicate independent and moderate Republican and Democratic voters in Georgia are willing to split their tickets. That would be good news for both incumbent Republican Gov. Brian Kemp, whose Democratic challenger is Stacey Abrams, and incumbent Democratic Sen. Raphael Warnock, who is in a statistical tie in recent polls with Trumpian Republican challenger Herschel Walker.

--Edited by Todd Lassa

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Upshot: The White House’s gambit will only work for Democrats if it boosts turnout by pro-abortion rights voters in the midterms, rather than counting on changing minds among those who will vote by November 8 anyway.

•••

--Edited by Todd Lassa

Latest on the Midterms (MON 10/17/22)

Hill v. Point: A news alert Monday evening, October 17, from The Hill says Republicans are “growing more optimistic” that they will grab majorities in both the House of Representatives and the Senate after the November 8 midterms. Pollsters say the GOP is gaining momentum from the “stubborn” inflation rate being blamed on President Biden and the Democrats.

That alert was followed by The Point! by CNN’s Chris Cilizza who writes of a surprising poll by J. Ann Selzer for the Des Moines Register, placing Democrat Mike Franken in a statistical tie with Republican Sen. Chuck Grassley, who seeks his eighth term at age 89. Grassley, who hasn’t been seriously challenged in several terms, has 46% in Selzer’s poll to Franken’s 43%.

Upshot: Selzer’s polls have been the most reliable since polls in general went south with the 2016 presidential race, Cilizza notes, and FiveThirtyEight rates her with a grade of A+.

•••

Early and mail-in voting are underway in many states as the November 8 midterm elections loom. While there is much new attention this year being paid on down-ballot races where elected state and county officials could potentially determine how future elections are conducted and counted, U.S. Senate races are in the national media spotlight.

Specifically, three key Senate races are considered most likely to determine whether Democrats maintain power in the upper chamber or whether the GOP regains its control in January.

Ohio: While Republican challenger, venture capitalist and Hillbilly Elegy author J.D. Vance holds the double-edge sword of Donald J. Trump’s endorsement, Democratic candidate Rep. Tim Ryan says he disagrees with his party’s leader, President Biden, on such issues as immigration policy. Vance and Ryan were scheduled to face off in their second of two debates Tuesday, October 18. The two candidates are in a statistical tie according to FiveThirtyEight, with Ryan polling an average of 45.1% to Vance’s 44.8% as of October 14.

Georgia: Republican challenger, football hero and Trump endorsee Herschel Walker has lost some support in the week or so since the Daily Beast reported a woman claims he paid for her abortion. Incumbent Democrat Raphael Warnock leads Walker 48% to 44.2% according to FiveThirtyEight averaging. Warnock would need at least 50% of the vote to win outright, however, to avoid a runoff likely against Walker. A third-party candidate, Libertarian Chase Oliver, is currently polling about 4% according to Fox News. Much of his November 8 votes would likely go to Walker in a runoff.

Nevada: Republican challenger Adam Laxalt leads incumbent Democrat Catherine Cortez Masto 45.1% to 44.5%, another statistical tie, according to FiveThirtyEight averaging. This despite 14 members of the Laxalt family, long politically prominent Republicans in Nevada, endorsed Cortez Masto over Laxalt’s embrace of his Trump-MAGA endorsement. Cortez Masto is losing Hispanic support over inflation and the economy, Newsweek reports, citing a USA Today/Suffolk University poll.

Meanwhile, in Pennsylvania: Lt. Gov. John Fetterman (D), endorsed by The Philadelphia Inquirer October 17, leads erstwhile Jersey guy and MAGA Republican Mehmet Oz by 48% to 42.4%, according to FiveThirtyEight, which means the GOP would have to win at least one challenge against a Democratic incumbent just to retain the 50-50 Senate split, a tie broken by Vice President Kamala Harris. This race is for a replacement to retiring Sen. Pat Toomey, a not-at-all-Trumper Republican.

--Compiled by Todd Lassa

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COMMENTS: editors@thehustings.news

Republicans Resurge in Midterms

Politico Again – Rating every race in play in the midterms, Politico says while the Senate remains a toss-up, the House of Representatives will likely go Republican. That’s an easy shift from the current margin of five Democratic members.

Good news for the other side, though, on gubernatorial races. Politico predicts more Americans will be governed by Democratic governors.

Comment in the box below, or in the left column if you lean liberal, or email editors@thehustings.news.

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What Ye Hath Wrought (TUE 10/18/22)

A week after World’s Richest Man by Stock Valuation Elon Musk admonished Ye over an antisemitic tweet, the rap artist/provocateur/Kardashian-ex known by his passport as Kanye West announced in a press release he will buy the far-right social media platform Parler, USA Today reports. No details, such as price, were announced, though the deal includes parent company Parler Technologies’ private cloud and infrastructure and is to be completed by the fourth quarter.

Consider together Ye’s Parler purchase (Daily Beast describes it as a "MAGA cesspit") with Tesla and SpaceX CEO Musk’s apparently imminent purchase of Twitter and plans to reopen it to Donald J. Trump, and plans by tech billionaire Peter Thiel and Senate candidate J.D. Vance to buy another hard-right social media site, Rumble, and you have a new age conservative media troika that would do Rupert Murdoch proud.

--TL

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COMMENTS: Go to the comment box in this column (or the one in the left column if that’s the way you lean) or email editors@thehustings.news and identify yourself as right or left in the subject line.

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