Pornography and the Polls

By Stephen Macaulay

Justice Potter Stewart’s remark related to the case brought before the Supreme Court, Jacobellis v. Ohio (1964), should be kept in mind by those who are promoting the reelection of Joe Biden. 

Nico Jacobellis showed a film directed by French filmmaker Louis Malle, Les Amants, or The Lovers. Officials in Cleveland Heights changed Jacobellis with obscenity. He was convicted and his case made it to the Supreme Court.

The question before the court was whether Les Amants was hard-core pornography.

And Stewart wrote of porn vis-à-vis the movie, “I shall not today attempt further to define the kinds of material I understand to be embraced within that shorthand description; and perhaps I could never succeed in intelligibly doing so. But I know it when I see it, and the motion picture involved in this case is not that.”

“I know it when I see it.”

It is difficult to meaningfully articulate concepts.

It is easier to see something physical and be able to form a notion of what it is, what it means, what its effects are.

Biden and his team are frequently talking about “democracy.” Talking about countering “autocracy.”

While not minimizing the value of democracy, isn’t it, for most people, something rather nebulous?

Yes, they think, democracy is good, but how do I know if I don’t have it?

Those people — again, by and large — have only lived in a democratic country, so it is hard for them to conceptualize what it would be like without it.

And as for “autocracy,” I’m sorry, but that is a bit too precious for most people. Not that it doesn’t have a precise definition (e.g., “a form of government in which one person has absolute control”), but again, this is, outside of poly sci seminars, a bit of a weasel word.

People would have a better sense of what a “dictatorship” is.

So if Team Biden believes that Trump wants to be the dictator, then they ought to say it.

According to a recent CBS News/YouGov poll, registered voters describe Trump as

  • Tough — 66%
  • Energetic — 61%
  • Effective — 52%

When it comes to things that are not necessary associated with making sure the proverbial trains run on time he doesn’t do as well:

  • Competent — 49%
  • Compassionate — 37%

Said another way, competence and compassion aren’t necessarily perceived to be importance if things are getting done.

Biden’s numbers, on the other hand, are abysmal, and for the one that he’s above water on, it isn’t exactly resounding:

  • Tough — 28%
  • Energetic — 26%
  • Effective — 38%
  • Competent — 40%
  • Compassionate — 52%

All of which is to say that he doesn’t sound like someone who would get things done.

People can see and hear Trump rant. People can see and hear Biden express things in as tentative a manner as he walks.

But let’s get back to the things that are part of people’s own lives. Like pocketbook issues.

Asked about the effect of the policies of the two men on their personal financial situation, Trump again leads:

  • Better off — 42%
  • Worse off — 31%

Biden:

  • Better off — 16%
  • Worse off — 48%

While no one thinks they’ll suddenly be rolling in dough regardless of who gets elected, that 48% to 31% delta in the “Worse off” category ought to make the Biden operatives catastrophically concerned. 

According to the latest Consumer Price Index, “Over the last 12 months, the all-items index increased 3.3% before seasonal adjustment.”

“More than offsetting a decline in gasoline,” the US Bureau of Labor Statistics noted, “the index for shelter rose in May, up 0.4% for the fourth consecutive month. The index for food increased 0.1% in May.” The annual rate for shelter is now +5.4%.

For the April report issued a month earlier, housing and gasoline alone caused 70% of the CPI increase, which was 3.4%. “The index for all items less food and energy rose 0.2% in May,” the BLS said. But this followed an 0.3% increase for the index in April, following 0.4% increases in each of the three preceding months. 

The index for medical care rose 0.5% in May after an 0.4% increase in April, while the index for prescription drugs rose 2.1% in May and the index for hospital services increased 0.5%.

People know what going to the doctor is. People know when it costs more to buy a shirt at Target.

And people can’t help but be shocked by the increase in that car insurance bill: the BLS has it that car insurance rates have risen 20.3% over the last year.

People know these things when they see these things.

Only 33% of those polled like the way Trump handles himself personally, meaning 67% don’t like it.

Yet the Biden-Trump matchup is essentially dead-even (nationally, Biden 49%/Trump 50%; battleground states Biden 50%/Trump 49%).

While Trump hasn’t articulated a clear message about how he is going to deal with more expensive housing (you’d think a real estate mogul would be all over that) or the cost of car insurance, neither has Biden.

People don’t necessarily think that Trump is a good man. But they do think that he could be better for the things that they deal with every day, like the price of a gallon of gas.

This may be too simplistic, but there is democracy and there is a doctor’s bill.

Biden can protect democracy by making people understand how he is going to make their daily lives better so that he gets reelected.

The prices at the grocery store are something that people can see and know.

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