Tag: AAA

Trump’s War Strategy

By Todd Lassa

UPDATE – After President Trump Truth Socialed Saturday that negotiations to end the war in Iran are “proceeding in an orderly and constructive manner” and told his negotiators “not to rush a deal,” Secretary of State Marco Rubio reported “significant” though “not final” progress had been made. Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Turkey, Jordan, Bahrain and Pakistan are leading negotiations with Iran that reportedly do not address Iran’s nuclear enrichment program, the key reason Trump says the US and Israel initiated the war on Iran in late February.

Is this yet another Trump red herring? Rubio on Monday echoed the president’s bellicose threats from over the past 12 weeks to try and force Iran to reach an agreement, saying the US will either have a good agreement or deal with Iran “another way.” 

Also on Monday, Esmail Baqai, spokesman for Iran’s foreign ministry, said a deal “is not imminent.” (From reports by the BBC, NPR’s Morning Edition and The Independent.)

And so, the Strait of Hormuz remains blockaded. Meanwhile … Americans are paying an average of $4.507 for a gallon of unleaded regular to return from Memorial Day vacations Monday, AAA reports, 5.7-cents cheaper than last Thursday but $1.526 more than on February 28.

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President Trump famously, or infamously, has never expressed a coherent foreign policy, though his introduction of the “Donroe Doctrine” with the US Military attack on Venezuela and capture of its authoritarian president, Nicolás Maduro, just after New Years 2026 has boosted his State Department’s belief in itself and hints at what could lead to a more coherent strategy. 

Trump is of the age to have vivid memories of news broadcasts following Cuba’s Marxist revolution of 1959, the Bay of Pigs and Cuban Missile Crisis of the Kennedy administration, the Mariel Boat Lift of the late Clinton administration and the custody fight over six-year-old Elián Gonzalez after he was rescued on a sinking boat between Havana and Miami (he was eventually returned to Cuba) in the second Clinton administration.

Certainly, Trump closely followed Iran’s 1979 revolution, the hostage crisis at the end of the Carter administration and chants of “Death to America” coming from leaders of the Islamic Republic in subsequent decades.

We’d bet Trump had little or no knowledge of Cuba’s dictatorship under Fulgencia Batista, from 1952 up to Fidel Castro’s revolution.

We suspect Trump does not think much about the Shah of Iran’s CIA- and MI6-assisted coup ď état of democratically elected Prime Minister Mohammad Mosaddegh in 1953 (when the president was seven years old).

But the Trump administration seems to be connecting the two nations. As the war on Iran drives up oil prices, pushing the US Labor Department’s Consumer Price Index to 3.8% and putting pressure on the global economy, Trump’s State Department, led by Cuban-American Marco Rubio – who has more expertise by far than anybody else in the president’s cabinet – is using the early January attack on Venezuela and capture of Nicolás Maduro as a template for its actions in Cuba and potential capture of its former president Raúl Castro, brother of the late Fidel.

Chances of something that looks like regime change on the island are probably better than in Iran, where our initial attacks killed off palatable alternatives to the late Ayatollah Khamenei, or in Venezuela, where Trump is copacetic with the leadership of Maduro’s subordinates. Shutting off oil shipments to Cuba from Venezuela and anywhere else makes potential regime change in Cuba much easier, satisfying generations of Cuban-Americans in South Florida while opening up the possibility of Trump Organization-style beachfront projects in Havana. 

The upshot is this could happen as the US is in the middle of yet another ceasefire with Iran.

If and when Trump can finally end the war (which he has said many times has already ended, and we’ve won) with any agreement that neutralizes Iran’s nuclear enrichment program beyond what the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action achieved during the Obama administration, a Venezuela-like victory in Cuba would top the headlines, especially on Fox News and its cohorts to its right. 

This could be the sort of Trump administration “win” that would do more for the GOP in the midterms than the mid-decade gerrymanders in Republican-led states.

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CORRECTION: A report in Thursday's center column, "Castro, Meet Maduro?" misstated former Cuban President Raúl Castro's age. He is 94.

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FRIDAY 5/22/26

…meanwhile…

Jeffries Elected House Democratic Leader – House Democrats have elected Rep. Hakeem Jeffries (D-NY) (above) their leader, replacing Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-CA), who announced she would step down after two decades (but remains in Congress for at least two more years). Jeffries, 52, covers New York’s 8th District which includes large parts of Brooklyn and a section of Queens, and becomes the first Black congressional leader from any party, replacing Pelosi, 82, who was the first female congressional leader from any party. Younger Democrats in Congress have been clamoring for more youthful leadership for the last few years. 

Other Leaders: Rep. Katherine M. Clark (D-MA), 59, replaces Rep. Steny Hoyer (D-MD), 83, in the House Democrat number-two spot while Rep. Pete Aguilar (D-CA), 43, replaces Rep. Jim Clyburn (D-SC), 82, for the number-three leadership position. Until the 118th Congress takes over in January, the outgoing top-three Democratic House positions are held by representatives older than President Biden, who just turned 80.

Meanwhile: Current House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) faces some inner-party opposition as he tries to skate the line between condemning ex-President Trump’s dinner with an antisemite and a white supremacist (see right column) and actually condemning Trump himself. McCarthy cannot afford to lose five Republicans from the incoming House of Representatives to take the speaker’s gavel he long has coveted – which gives Democrats an outside chance of voting Jeffries into the speakership. 

Nobody, but nobody, really expects the GOP majority to let that happen, but it will make for an interesting January on Capitol Hill. 

--TL

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Oath Keepers Guilty of Seditious Conspiracy – Oath Keepers leader Stewart Rhodes and Florida chief Kelly Meggs were found guilty in federal court of seditious conspiracy for their involvement in the January 6th attack on the United States Capitol, Tuesday (The Hill). The Justice Department victory marks the first such conviction for seditious conspiracy since 1995, according to CNN.

All five Oath Keepers defendants were found guilty in the trial of obstruction of an official proceeding. Four Oath Keepers were found guilty of tampering with evidence – the fifth member of the far-right organization was not charged in this count. 

Rhodes and Meggs face potential prison sentences of up to 20 years for each.

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Senate Votes to Codify Same-Sex Marriage – The Senate voted, 61-39, to codify federal recognition of same-sex marriage, with religious liberty protections securing the bipartisan support, Roll Call reports. Lead sponsor Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D-WI) told reporters the bill would ease concerns that the Supreme Court could revisit precedents that protected same-sex and interracial marriage. SCOTUS in 2013 found the 1996 Defense of Marriage Act largely unconstitutional.

Majority Leader Steny Hoyer (D-MD) said the House could take up the bill as early as next week.

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Good Economic News – Various signs are appearing that the Federal Reserve is succeeding in capping inflation without triggering a recession. It’s early yet, but here’s a big piece of such evidence: the national average price of a gallon of gasoline was $3.521 as of Tuesday morning, AAA reports. That’s lower than the average price before Russian President Vladimir Putin invaded Ukraine.

--Compiled and edited by Todd Lassa

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COMMENTS: editors@thehustings.news