Tag: Adam Laxalt

…meanwhile…

Hobbs Declared Next Arizona Governor – Secretary of State Katie Hobbs (D) has beat 2020 election-denier Kari Lake (R) to become the next governor of Arizona to succeed term-limited Gov. Doug Ducey, AP reports. That makes Hobbs the first Democrat to win the state’s governorship since 2006. 

The last-standing election denier among gubernatorial candidates according to the Arizona Republic, Lake last month refused to say she would concede if she lost the election. 

“I’m going to win the election, and I will accept that result,” she told Dana Bash, host of CNN’s State of the Union.

Trump’s ‘Big Announcement’: Speaking of election deniers, Donald J. Trump is still expected to announce his run for the 2024 GOP presidential nomination Tuesday, though some Republicans have publicly urged him to wait until after the December 6 runoff for the Georgia Senate seat between incumbent Democrat Raphael Warnock and MAGA challenger Herschel Walker. Some pundits suggest Trump may pull back given the bad timing. Trump has teased a “big announcement” at Mar-a-Lago, where he will gather loyal members of the Republican Party and media. 

Kemp to Testify: Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp was to testify Tuesday morning before the Fulton County special grand jury investigating whether Trump and his allies criminally meddled in Georgia’s 2020 elections, The Atlanta Journal-Constitutionreports, citing two sources. Remember, Trump was only asking for 11,780 additional Georgia votes.

Plus-One House Seat for Republicans: The AP also called two House races for Republican candidates and one for Democrats, with Rep. David Schweikert (R) winning re-election for Arizona’s 1st congressional district and Juan Ciscomani (R) winning Arizona’s 6th, while Democrat Andrea Salinas took Oregon’s 6th district. 

With these final results, the count stands at 214 Republicans and 204 Democrats, with 218 needed to control the House. 

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Roster of GOP Presidential Candidates – Most prominent challenger to ex-President Trump for the 2024 GOP presidential nomination is Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, of course; a onetime ally whom The Donald now considers an annoying threat. But wait, there’s more. The Washington Post says the following are considering runs for the nomination in ’24 …

Usual Suspects: Former New Jersey governor and early Trump ally turned critic Chris Christie, former Vice President Mike Pence, whose book So Help Me God releases Tuesday, and first-term governor and political newbie Glenn Youngkin of Virginia. 

Never-Trumper: Outgoing Maryland Gov. Larry Hogan has said he is interested in exploring a run.

Playing Both Sides: Former Trump acolytes who have ‘moved on’ include Nikki Haley, former South Carolina governor and U.N. ambassador for Trump, Sen. Tim Scott of South Carolina, and Mike Pompeo, former CIA director and Trump administration secretary of state. 

--Compiled and edited by Todd Lassa

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Dems Hold the Senate

(MON 11/14/22)

Pollsters and pundits have been agonizing over how predictions of a big red wave in last week’s midterm elections turned out to be a big mistake, even though reports for weeks of high early voter turnouts should have provided a clue. What we got was a raft of polls showing key races within the margin of error. 

And so even before the December 6 runoff between incumbent Sen. Raphael Warnock (D-GA) and Donald J. Trump-backed challenger Herschel Walker, the Democratic Party again has wafer-thin control of the Senate. The party reached the magic 50-senator count over the weekend when Nevada finally declared incumbent Catherine Cortez Masto winner against Adam Laxalt’s challenge. Never mind that members of Laxalt’s political family (his father was preternaturally moderate Sen. Pete Dominici (R-NM) and his grandfather was Paul Laxalt, a Nevada governor then U.S. senator) urged voters to cast their ballots for Cortez Masto.

But for months there have been few predictions of a Republican takeover of the Senate. You’d have to go to Fox News or outlets to its right for that. The House is another story, where Republicans were expected to flip up to 24 seats, but now there is a slim chance Democrats could maintain control.

As of Sunday, 19 of 435 seats were awaiting declared winners. Republicans have won 212 so far to the Democratic Party’s 204 seats, according to The New York Times, with 218 seats necessary for a majority.

--Todd Lassa

CORRECTION: An earlier version of this post misstated the date for the Georgia Senate race runoff, which will be held December 6.

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COMMENTS: editors@thehustings.news

Lettuce Wins

(THU 10/20/22)

British PM Resigns – Prime Minister Liz Truss has announced her resignation just 44 days into her term, the BBC reports. Her conservative party is to choose a successor by Friday, October 28. London’s Daily Star claimed victory for its 60-pence head of lettuce for outlasting the PM with the shortest term in British history.

--TL

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Biden Ups Midterm Ante on Abortion Issue (WED 10/19/22)

Codifying Roe v. Wade – President Biden announces Tuesday the first and foremost issue on his agenda for the second half of his term, if Democrats manage to hold majorities in both the House and Senate, will be a bill codifying Roe v. Wade, The Hill reports. Yes, that is a big “if”. With three weeks to go to the November 8 midterm elections, most polls show that intended voters rank inflation and the economy as their top issue, ahead of abortion rights.

The Hill helpfully notes that if Democrats do hold off the GOP in the House and Senate, such legislation could appear on or near the 50th anniversary of the Supreme Court’s Roe decision, January 23, 1973 which was overturned last summer by SCOTUS’ ruling on Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization.

Upshot: The White House’s gambit will only work for Democrats if it boosts turnout by pro-abortion rights voters in the midterms, rather than counts on changing minds among those who will vote by November 8 anyway.

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Record Early Voting in Georgia – The state’s first day of in-person early voting broke the midterm election record by Tuesday morning, The Atlanta Journal-Constitution reports, with nearly 123,000 voters turning out. If Georgia is any indication of the turnout nationally, its likely polls on individual races across the states will prove to be way off the mark.

Meanwhile: Numerous news reports indicate independent and moderate Republican and Democratic voters in Georgia are willing to split their tickets. That would be good news for both incumbent Republican Gov. Brian Kemp, whose Democratic challenger is Stacey Abrams, and incumbent Democratic Sen. Raphael Warnock, who is in a statistical tie in recent polls with Trumpian Republican challenger Herschel Walker.

--Edited by Todd Lassa

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Codifying Roe v. Wade – President Biden announces Tuesday the first and foremost issue on his agenda for the second half of his term, if Democrats manage to hold majorities in both the House and Senate, will be a bill codifying Roe v. Wade, The Hill reports. Yes, that is a big “if”. With three weeks to go to the November 8 midterm elections, most polls show that intended voters rank inflation and the economy as their top issue, ahead of abortion rights.

The Hill helpfully notes that if Democrats do hold off the GOP in the House and Senate, such legislation could appear on or near the 50th anniversary of the Supreme Court’s Roe decision, January 23, 1973 which was overturned last summer by SCOTUS’ ruling on Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization.

Upshot: The White House’s gambit will only work for Democrats if it boosts turnout by pro-abortion rights voters in the midterms, rather than counting on changing minds among those who will vote by November 8 anyway.

•••

Record Early Voting in Georgia – The state’s first day of in-person early voting broke the midterm election record by Tuesday morning, The Atlanta Journal-Constitution reports, with nearly 123,000 voters turning out. If Georgia is any indication of the turnout nationally, its likely polls on individual races across the states will prove to be way off the mark.

Meanwhile: Numerous news reports indicate independent and moderate Republican and Democratic voters in Georgia are willing to split their tickets. That would be good news for both incumbent Republican Gov. Brian Kemp, whose Democratic challenger is Stacey Abrams, and incumbent Democratic Sen. Raphael Warnock, who is in a statistical tie in recent polls with Trumpian Republican challenger Herschel Walker.

--Edited by Todd Lassa

Latest on the Midterms (MON 10/17/22)

Hill v. Point: A news alert Monday evening, October 17, from The Hill says Republicans are “growing more optimistic” that they will grab majorities in both the House of Representatives and the Senate after the November 8 midterms. Pollsters say the GOP is gaining momentum from the “stubborn” inflation rate being blamed on President Biden and the Democrats.

That alert was followed by The Point! by CNN’s Chris Cilizza who writes of a surprising poll by J. Ann Selzer for the Des Moines Register, placing Democrat Mike Franken in a statistical tie with Republican Sen. Chuck Grassley, who seeks his eighth term at age 89. Grassley, who hasn’t been seriously challenged in several terms, has 46% in Selzer’s poll to Franken’s 43%. 

Upshot: Selzer’s polls have been the most reliable since polls in general went south with the 2016 presidential race, Cilizza notes, and FiveThirtyEight rates her with a grade of A+.

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Early and mail-in voting are underway in many states as the November 8 midterm elections loom. While there is much new attention this year being paid on down-ballot races where elected state and county officials could potentially determine how future elections are conducted and counted, U.S. Senate races are in the national media spotlight. 

Specifically, three key Senate races are considered most likely to determine whether Democrats maintain power in the upper chamber or whether the GOP regains its control in January. 

Ohio: While Republican challenger, venture capitalist and Hillbilly Elegy author J.D. Vance holds the double-edge sword of Donald J. Trump’s endorsement, Democratic candidate Rep. Tim Ryan says he disagrees with his party’s leader, President Biden, on such issues as immigration policy. Vance and Ryan were scheduled to face off in their second of two debates Tuesday, October 18. The two candidates are in a statistical tie according to FiveThirtyEight, with Ryan polling an average of 45.1% to Vance’s 44.8% as of October 14.

Georgia: Republican challenger, football hero and Trump endorsee Herschel Walker has lost some support in the week or so since the Daily Beast reported a woman claims he paid for her abortion. Incumbent Democrat Raphael Warnock leads Walker 48% to 44.2% according to FiveThirtyEight averaging. Warnock would need at least 50% of the vote to win outright, however, to avoid a runoff likely against Walker. A third-party candidate, Libertarian Chase Oliver, is currently polling about 4% according to Fox News. Much of his November 8 votes would likely go to Walker in a runoff.

Nevada: Republican challenger Adam Laxalt leads incumbent Democrat Catherine Cortez Masto 45.1% to 44.5%, another statistical tie, according to FiveThirtyEight averaging. This despite 14 members of the Laxalt family, long politically prominent Republicans in Nevada, endorsed Cortez Masto over Laxalt’s embrace of his Trump-MAGA endorsement. Cortez Masto is losing Hispanic support over inflation and the economy, Newsweek reports, citing a USA Today/Suffolk University poll.

Meanwhile, in Pennsylvania: Lt. Gov. John Fetterman (D), endorsed by The Philadelphia Inquirer October 17, leads erstwhile Jersey guy and MAGA Republican Mehmet Oz by 48% to 42.4%, according to FiveThirtyEight, which means the GOP would have to win at least one challenge against a Democratic incumbent just to retain the 50-50 Senate split, a tie broken by Vice President Kamala Harris. This race is for a replacement to retiring Sen. Pat Toomey, a not-at-all-Trumper Republican.

--Compiled by Todd Lassa

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COMMENTS: editors@thehustings.news