Tag: CBS News

Just Wait

Commentary By Stephen Macaulay

One thing that seems not to have happened, at least not in any major way, is the economy hasn’t gone on tilt since Liberation Day.

Of course, there are a few things to consider.

First of all, given the on-again/off-again nature of the tariffs for various countries, it has been difficult for businesses to figure out their pricing strategy going forward.

But this not to say that the tariffs aren’t having a negative effect on consumers’ pocketbooks.

You may have noticed stories about people who are rushing to buy their Christmas gifts. This is a whole other sort of “Christmas in July” — one predicated on people realizing going forward those toys and clothing are going to be considerably more expensive.

This buy-ahead phenomenon is making it seem that things are more robust than they are, or will be.

Those going into a Ford dealership to buy a Bronco Sport, Maverick or Mustang Mach-E today will find themselves paying several hundred dollars more — up to $2,000 — for one of those vehicles today than pre-Liberation Day.

Why? Because they are built in Mexico, which was just fine because of the USMCA that the Trump administration signed the first time to level the playing field. Somehow that no longer holds.

Its cross-town rival, General Motors, announced that in Q2 — meaning the inclusion of Liberation Day — it lost $1.1 billion because of tariffs. And it anticipates before the year is out there will be several billion added in red ink.

Why does that matter? Well, when the company loses billions of dollars, it has to find that money somewhere, and it will find at least some of it by raising prices.

And let’s add the other company that used to be in the “Big Three,” Stellantis, which has in its North American portfolio Chrysler, Dodge, Jeep and Ram. The international company announced its first half net revenues, €74.3 billion, which is down 13% compared to the first half of 2024.

Notably, the company estimates the “2025 net tariff impact to approximately €1.5 billion, of which €0.3 billion was incurred in H1 2025.”

In other words, a fraction was in the first half. The second is going to be seriously not good.

That is reflected in a statement from The Conference Board which says “the bulk of the economic weakness would likely affect Q4 and early 2026, later than we previously anticipated.”

It isn’t here entirely quite yet. But get ready.

Going back to autos, according to a statement by Charlie Chesbrough, senior economist at Cox Automotive, on July 28, things in the auto industry aren’t’ going particularly well: “And there’s no reason to believe trends are improving from here. We are seeing more tariffed products replacing existing inventory, and costs are trending higher. As those higher costs trickle through to retail, sales will likely soften in the coming months unless the economic direction improves.”

If a company is selling fewer cars, then it needs to make fewer cars. If it is making fewer cars, then it needs fewer people to build them.

While the unemployment rate is at a good level now, 4.1%, it is worth noting that according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics the number was a much better 3.5% in July 2023. It will be interesting to watch that figure in the second half when the tariffs really hit.

And while the University of Michigan survey on consumer confidence has the number rising to 61.8 points in July, up from 60.7 points in June, a year ago in July the number was at 66.4 points. If we take October 2024 as being the last month that can be ascribed to the Biden Administration, the number was 70.5 points. So again, while consumers are getting more confident than they were in April and May 2025 (both 52.2 points), they are a lot less confident now than they were a year ago.

According to a recent CBS News YouGov poll (and it is surprising that CBS let these numbers out, given the $16 million it paid to a lawsuit filed by the president):

  • 60% of US adults disapprove of the way Donald Trump is handling the economy
  • 64% disapprove of the way he is handling inflation
  • 59% think the national economy is fairly bad (33%) or very bad (26%)
  • 55% think the economy is getting worse

And realize this is before the tariffs really kick in.

Somehow I am mystified about the “Golden Age” ahead.

Macaulay is pundit-at-large for The Hustings, where he writes primarily – though clearly not always – as a conservative for the right column.

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THURSDAY 7/31/25

We’re Watching the Returns

By Todd Lassa

What will you watch, and what will you watch for Election Day Tuesday night?

Flipping between CNN, Fox News, and MSNBC is pretty easy, with the three news networks typically grouped together on most cable TV systems. However, if you try to switch at the commercials, you'll learn that the Big Three run them about the same time. Make such an effort to get a balance of viewpoints, and you'll quickly exceed your doctor's daily suggested intake of Progressive insurance, MyPillow, and Biktarvy commercials. You might be better off going for the free broadcast option and enjoy a cocktail of CBS, NBC, and ABC News with a dose of PBS and NPR thrown in. 

No matter what you choose, the likelihood of going to bed at a reasonable hour Wednesday morning will very probably leave you unsatisfied and almost certainly without any idea of whether President Trump or former Vice President Joe Biden will take the oath of office on the west front of the U.S. Capitol next Jan. 20.

Nevertheless, Trump reportedly told confidants he “plans to declare premature victory” Tuesday night, Axios reported over the weekend, citing three anonymous sources. Trump denied the report Sunday night, adding, "I think it's a terrible thing when ballots can be counted after an election. I think it's a terrible thing when states are allowed to tabulate ballots for a long time after the election is over." 

On Monday, Biden asked the country and the media to ignore any victory declaration before all ballots are counted. "Under no scenario" can Trump legitimately declare victory on election night, he said.

The last polls to close are 1 a.m. Eastern time Wednesday in parts of Alaska, considered solid Trump country. But several swing states are expected to take until the end of the week before all their mail-in and early voting ballots are counted. 

Of the potential swing states, Pennsylvania's polls close at 8 p.m. EST, but the state can count postmarked ballots as late as Friday. Florida's polls also close at 8 p.m., with many in the state closing at 7 Eastern; still, postmarked ballots cannot be counted beyond Tuesday. Georgia polls close at 7 p.m. and allow no late ballots, while North Carolina's close at 7:30 p.m., with late ballots counted by Nov. 12. Michigan's polls close at 9 p.m., with no postmarked ballots counted after election day. Ohio, the other remaining key state in the Eastern time zone, closes polls at 7:30 p.m. but allows postmarked ballots to come in as late as Friday, Nov. 13, with all such late ballots reported by Nov. 28.

Thanks to a Supreme Court ruling, no Wisconsin ballots may be counted after Election Day, where polls close at 9 p.m. Eastern. Iowa, which closes its polls by 10 EST, counts postmarked ballots as late as Nov. 9. Texas polls close at 9 p.m. Eastern, with most closing an hour earlier, and postmarked ballots are to be counted by Wednesday. Arizona closes its polls at 9 p.m. Eastern and does not count postmarked ballots after Election Day.

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