View of Election Night from the Left

Nov. 5 UPDATE: There has been no "blue wave" in the U.S. Senate, with Mitch McConnell, R-Ky., expected to retain his position as majority chairman. [He has since suggested the Senate consider a second coronavirus relief package before the presidential inauguration, a shift from a previous position that it would not be considered until after Jan. 20.] Currently, the Senate makeup is 48-48, with Democrats up one seat and Republicans down by one. The GOP will almost certainly win two more, with incumbents Dan Sullivan of Alaska, and David Perdue of Georgia expected to retain their leads. Of the two remaining, incumbent Sen. Thom Tillis, R-N.C., leads Democratic challenger Cal Cunningham, 48.7 percent to 46.9 percent, though with 94 percent of the ballots counted, Tillis could lose if Biden ultimately flips the state. The second is a special election in Georgia for its other Senate seat, where Democratic candidate Raphael Warnock, at 32.7 percent of the vote with 96 percent of the ballots in, and incumbent Republican Kelly Loeffler, at 26.1 percent, edged out Republican challenger Doug Collins at 20.1 percent. The runoff will be held in January.

The Hustings asked contributing liberal pundits to tell us their thoughts of the presidential election just before turning in for the night. Whether because they were still watching well into Wednesday as we went to post, or because they fell asleep trying to wait out the results, our responses have been rather limited. Here’s what we heard back:

For liberal pundit Michelle Naranjo, Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden’s failure to strike a decisive blow against the Trump campaign is disappointing, though perhaps not much of a surprise.

“There is a blazing red mirage in front of the U.S. map tonight,” she writes. “Ballot counts appear close, and possibly even dire for the Biden, but much like Trump’s escapades, it is temporary smoke and mirrors.

“Republicans appear to be leading in vote tallies, but in-person votes (heavily Republican) are being counted before mail-in ballots, which typically skew Democratic voters. Tomorrow, and even the days following should pull the real results into focus.”

As noted in his last left column [“Fair and Unbalanced,” Nov. 3], Stephen Macaulay is at home, either watching “The Mandalorian” or reading a book.

—–

Shifting Allegiances in The Villages

By Jim McCraw

The Villages, in Central Florida, is the country’s largest retirement community, with some 130,000 residents in one contiguous settlement spread across three counties. It has been a Republican stronghold for a long, long time.

The population here is vastly white, upper middle-class Christian, with a few Jewish, Black and Hispanic residents.

The Villages boasts the world’s largest American Legion post. It helped elect U.S. Navy veteran Rick Scott governor twice, then helped send the Republican to the U.S. Senate. He was replaced by former Congressman Ron DeSantis, a fellow Republican and now the youngest governor in the country, just 42 when he took office.

The Villages are represented in the House by Republican Daniel Webster. Almost all of the county supervisors in Sumter, Lake and Marion counties, on which The Villages are built, are Republican.

Sumter county routinely has the highest voter turnout in the entire state. Trump was swept into office in 2016, but his margin over Hillary Clinton was 1.2 percent in Florida. That’s about 112,900 votes.

Things have changed over the last four years, and now there is much more support here for Democrat Joe Biden. Disenchanted Republicans have been coming in to The Villages Democratic Club headquarters in Wildwood, the largest in Florida, since May to complain about Trump and ask how they can volunteer to help Biden’s campaign, says its president, Chris Stanley.

She estimates 5.8 percent of Republicans in The Villages who voted for Trump in 2016 will vote for Biden on Tuesday. The disaffected cite three big reasons for switching candidates.

“Reason number one is his handling of the coronavirus and his lack of leadership. Reason number two is his view of military veterans as ‘suckers’ and ‘losers.’ They don’t like that. Reason number three is policy, the elimination [deferral] of the payroll tax [to mitigate economic effects of pandemic shutdowns], because it will affect their children and grandchildren.”

Republican Voters Against Trump recently completed a $3 million disgruntled-voter billboard campaign across Central Florida with messages like “I’m a Republican. I’m a patriot. I’m voting Biden.” … “I’m a Republican. I’m a Marine veteran. I’m voting Biden.” … “I’m a Republican. I’m a Christian. I’m voting Biden.”

“A lot of Republican voters are going to be casting their votes for Joe Biden because the last four years, what they expected they were going to get from the Trump administration has not been what they want, and Joe Biden is offering them an alternative to bring this country back,” says Daniel Henry, a young, Black Republican voter.

This year more than 40 percent of the state’s 14.4 million registered voted early, and Florida election experts predict the turnout in 2020 will exceed the 1992 record of 83 percent -- which could mean more than 100,000 from The Villages alone. There are signs that Florida could swing to the Democratic side, much as Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin flipped to the GOP four years ago, and The Villages, so solid-red for so long, will contribute to this swing.

Jim McCraw is a semi-retired writer and columnist. He has been a resident of The Villages for nearly five years.

—–

Red, White & Blue Golf Carts at The Villages

By Todd Lassa

By the time former Vice President Joe Biden became the Democratic nominee for president this year, political pundits were still looking at the electoral college map like it was 2016 all over again. Could President Trump maintain his popularity and turn Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin blue once again?

Florida has 29 electoral college votes, however, to Pennsylvania’s 20, Michigan’s 16 and Wisconsin’s 10. It is one of the more reliably red states in play according to the latest polls, along with North Carolina, Arizona and even Texas.

Biden holds a 1.2-point lead over Trump in RealClearPolitics’ Oct. 30 average of 11 polls for Florida, which happens to be the same percentage victory that Trump had over Hillary Clinton in 2016. Four years ago, Trump’s RealClearPoilitics poll average was 0.2 points above Clinton just before the election.

Key to Florida’s choice next Tuesday will be the vote from The Villages, with its 130,000-plus residents, most of them seniors over 55, and many of whom vote assiduously. Residents motor around The Villages largely in electric golf carts. (In 2005 The Villages entered The Guinness World Records with a parade of 3,321 golf carts.) These carts make a great political news story photo op, as many of their owners festoon them with campaign signs.

Before and after the ’16 presidential election, the vast majority of those carts in The Villages were plastered with pro-Trump signs, piloted by seniors wearing red MAGA hats. This time, national media have covered a large influx of Biden-blue golf carts. Is it real, or is it an anomaly, with a handful of outspoken Democrats infiltrating the deep-red retirement neighborhood? Our resident of The Villages and our former GOP official from California discuss, in the left and right columns, respectively.

Please address your comments to editors@thehustings.news

—–

Greasing the Skids for Red MAGA-Hatted Golf Carts

By Bryan Williams

Imagine, if you will, a remake of the musical “Grease” for 2020, this time with senior citizens in their decked out hot rod golf carts. The concrete Los Angeles River is now a concrete pathway around a pristine Florida 55-plus housing development known as The Villages. Instead of racing for teenage glory and pink slips, these Villagers are in the horse race of presidential politics. Much hay has been made recently of a breakaway group of seniors parading in their golf carts for Joe Biden, when in 2016 The Villages went 70-percent for Trump, according to Courthouse News Service.

All indications point to this election being very close, just as it was in 2016. Trump won Florida by barely more than 1 percent. If it is indeed true that 5.8-percent of senior residents are changing their votes for Biden, this spells trouble for Trump. However, the same Courthouse News article reported that Trump held a rally at the Villages on Oct. 23 with all the pomp, cheering, and excited Trump voters that we have come to expect.

This seems like a hard one to call. Which way will Florida go? We all know that Trump was carried by seniors in 2016 and their support is critical in this round. Will losing nearly 6 percent of The Villages make a difference? Yes. Elections are very close these days. I worked for a California Republican candidate who won an election by 213 votes out of over 25,000 cast. That’s less than 1 percent.

And yet, polls show Florida is a toss-up with 1 percent to 2 percent separating each candidate. There is so much dueling data out there this election year that it can be hard to make sense of any of it. What should we choose? I’ll double down and stick with my prediction that Trump will eke out a win this year. It will be close -- a photo finish between blue Biden- and red MAGA-bedecked golf carts.

Williams is a mental health professional and former Republican party official in California.

—–

All the Metaphors

By Andrew Boyd

I struggle to talk about these debates in the fashion of the day, as if we were watching something as superficial as a UFC bout; but as political heavyweight contests go, there were no big surprises. Adopting as non-partisan perspective as I can manage, I thought both men got in their shots, but the roundhouses were few and far between, and neither combatant went face-to-canvas.

Trump’s best line of attack was the right hook to Joe’s legacy as a careerist pol, and the watery, flavorless stone soup of ‘accomplishments’ over 47 long years that should do little to satiate anyone’s desire for a candidate possessed of the capacity, desire or will to affect meaningful change in any direction.

If fate elects Joe, I’ll take what solace I can in the fact that he’s no ideologue and mostly just a guy looking to fill out his political butterfly collection with the rare Potus-excremus. Nothing new, certainly nothing better, but probably no worse than business as usual.

I’m in the species of conservative who thinks Washington is rotten down to its core, whose vote for Trump was a message to the D.C. establishment, left, right and center, that the game is up. And it’s that same disgust for Washington’s three-card monte that will pull the lever for DJT once again.

I think Donald, for all his many foibles, has a genuine love of country and a desire to do the right thing by his countrymen and women. That, for me, is the trump card in a deck full of one-eye jacks. Establishment Washington wouldn’t know a straight deal if they saw one; and worse yet, if they did, they’d form a posse to hang that dealer, which is more or less what played out as the Mueller probe over the past three years.

Get in there Donald and break some shit!

Please email your comments to editors@thehustings.news

—–

Don’t be Lulled by Biden’s Big Lead in the Polls

By Chase Wheaton

After predicting, like most of the country did, that Hillary Clinton would win the 2016 presidential election by a landslide, and being proved quite wrong, I’ve been hesitant to make any predictions this year. Even now, the story of this election cycle feels eerily similar to that of the 2016 election: The Democratic candidate leads in virtually every national poll, while negative news story after negative news story is uncovered about President Trump, which then further infuriates the left while seemingly emboldens the right, and so on. While my conservative counterpart believes we’ll repeat history and see a slight Trump victory again, I must cautiously disagree and predict that Joe Biden will be victorious, although just barely, come Election Day.

Why am I so cautious with my prediction? My counterpart makes a lot of good arguments. An unenthused Biden voter myself, I agree that the average Trump voter’s enthusiasm is higher than that of the average Biden voter, largely due to the disenfranchisement that a lot of progressive (not Democratic) voters feel towards the Democratic Party after candidates like Bernie Sanders were disregarded by party establishment without being given a fair chance to succeed during the primary. Additionally, there are a huge number of voters that feel ashamed to voice their support for President Trump, but who will be the first in line to vote for him, and I’m sure that the number of people in this “silent majority” has only increased since 2016.

Going even further, the Electoral College, an archaic institution that needs to be abolished, makes it hard to feel confident about a Biden victory, as it has historically favored Republican candidates in presidential elections (in fact, only one Republican presidential candidate in the last 28 years has won both the popular and electoral votes in the general election). I’d also be remiss not to mention the hard-fought efforts by the Trump administration in recent weeks to suppress votes by denying adequate funding for the U.S. Postal Service, by fighting to remove ballot boxes in battleground states, and by spreading misinformation about the validity of mail-in voting during a global pandemic.

With all these factors in play, it’d be reckless to believe Biden will win this election with ease, and I caution other Democrats against feeling any sense of comfort or victory just yet. Yes, almost 21 million people have already voted in this election, 10 times the number of early voters at this point in the 2016 election. Yes, Biden has consistently held a double-digit lead over Trump in almost every national poll to date. And yes, the list of President Trump’s failures and offenses is seemingly never-ending. Unfortunately, I don’t believe it’ll be that easy, and I believe we’ll need every vote we can get if we want to rid ourselves of the nightmare that’s been the last 4 years.

—–

Biden Holds a Big Lead Over Trump, but How Reliable Are The Polls This Time?

By Todd Lassa

Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden holds an 8.9-point lead over President Donald J. Trump (51.2 percent to 42.3 percent) according to an average of major political polls by Real Clear Politics. It is reasonable to ask whether the president’s Friday morning tweet slamming Sen. Susan Collins helps or hurts the Republican senator from Maine now fighting for her political life, who has said she will not vote in favor of Judge Amy Coney Barrett’s nomination to the U.S. Supreme Court. Collins faces a daunting challenge from Democrat Sara Gideon, Maine’s House speaker, in the Nov. 3 elections.

The president’s Friday tweet reads, “There is a nasty rumor out there that @Susan Collins of Maine will not be supporting our great United States Supreme Court Nominee. Well, she didn’t support Healthcare or my opening up 5000 square miles of Ocean to Maine, so why should this be any different. Not worth the work.”

Closing in on two weeks before the Nov. 3 national elections, the real threat of a Blue Wave accompanying a Biden win would entail a big swing from the GOP’s 53-47 Senate majority, and potentially has Democrats building on their 233-196 majority in the House. Even relatively secure Senate Republicans may be hedging their bets.

Sen. Ben Sasse, R-Nebraska, as a member of the Judiciary Committee handled Supreme Court nominee Barrett with kid gloves earlier this week but criticized President Trump’s Thursday night Town Hall on NBC in a conference call to constituents, the Washington Examiner reports.

Trump “kisses dictators’ butts,” “sells out our allies” and “trash-talks evangelicals behind their backs,” Sasse reportedly said. He further slammed the president for “mistreating women” and initially “ignoring COVID.” Trump supporters will note that Sasse is considered an early contender for the 2024 Republican presidential nomination, a race Donald Trump Jr. may fight if the GOP balance of power remains in his family’s orbit.

While having brushed off polls showing a huge deficit to former Vice President Biden for many weeks, Trump himself has predicted a repeat of his 2016 campaign performance, which means he’s closing in, especially in the final week. Four years ago Trump gained on Hillary Clinton after the former secretary of state led many polls only by four or five points, often within statistical error of a tie. This year, Trump must overcome landslide-style deficits nationally as well as large margins in battleground states, and even in erstwhile Republican strangleholds like Arizona and North Carolina, where Sens. Martha McSally and Thom Tillis face potential losses to their Democratic challengers.

Our right-column pundit thinks President Trump has a big chance of pulling off another upset, and our left-column pundit, having been gobsmacked by the 2016 election worries the argument holds many valid points.

—–

Incumbent Trump is Set to Pull Out a Second Upset

By Bryan Williams

Predictions can be a wily business. Some tout that they have never been wrong since Dewey vs. Truman (and go on to be right), and some make grandiose claims and flame out. Others stick to a version of, “It’s the economy, stupid,” and base their prediction off what Wall Street investors think/say/invest in. Here is my first ever presidential prediction: Donald Trump will eke out a slim win (again) and get four more years. Here’s why:

Since 1952, political “outsiders” or candidates who are younger than their opponent have had advantage in key races. World War II general and war hero Dwight D. Eisenhower had far less political experience than Democrat Adlai Stevenson, yet beat him by a landslide, twice. Reagan had less political experience than Mondale, Clinton had less experience and was younger than Bush 41 while Bush 43 had less experience than either Gore or Kerry, and Obama had way less experience than McCain and is younger than Romney. Trump had no formal political experience and beat Clinton, and often compares his 45 or so months in the Oval Office to Biden’s 47 years Inside the Beltway.

Advantage, Trump.

Enthusiasm level: Who’s excited about Joe Biden? His supporters’ excitement appears to be, he’s “not Trump.” Will this equate to black and Latino voters turning out in big numbers for Biden? I am dubious. Trump voter’s enthusiasm level is also higher than Biden’s, according to David Sirota in the left-leaning online magazine Jacobin, citing a September Fox News poll that gives the president an 11-point margin in this category. Advantage: Trump.

Vote shaming: This is the common occurrence of people feeling their support of a candidate is shamed by popular opinion, as fueled by news and social media platforms. It’s safe to say that there are a lot of people afraid to admit they plan to vote for Trump. Many of those who like Trump will let their voices be heard at the ballot box. These are the voters Richard Nixon called “the silent majority.” Advantage: Trump.

While Trump had an obvious and clear electoral college victory by midnight Eastern time – 9 p.m. my time four years ago – pundits this year are predicting there will be no clear winner before Nov. 4, and perhaps not until much later. This is where the “Two Vs,” Valencia County, New Mexico, and Vigo County, Indiana, will come in handy. As small-population rural counties, their numbers should be counted not long after the polls close on Nov. 3. Vigo County has chosen the president all but twice since 1888, and Valencia County has been perfect since 1952. Keep your eye on Valencia and Vigo. I predict they will lead the nation to four more years for Trump.

But it’s gonna be close, folks.

—–

To Lead or Not to Lead: Do We Need a Mask Mandate to Fight the Pandemic?

By Todd Lassa

Until either Donald J. Trump or Joe Biden pulls a political rabbit with bigger teeth out of his hat, this election season’s October Surprise, so far, has been news that the president contracted the virus that causes COVID-19 around the time of the first, and probably only, debate between the incumbent and his Democratic challenger.

Yes, it’s always about the economy, stupid, but as the Trump administration shifts on efforts to enact another federal aid package for corporations, individuals, and state and local governments in time for the Nov. 3 election, the future of our economy, especially over the next year or two, remains closely tied to the global health crisis.

A second economic relief package appears to be in limbo, for now, as Senate Judiciary Committee hearings over the nomination of Amy Coney Barrett to the US Supreme Court takes political precedent over whatever the status of negotiations between Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin and House Speaker Nancy Pelosi.

Amid it all, wearing masks in public and the question of how and when to re-open the economy to save what’s left of the restaurant, tavern, airline, and shopping mall industries remain the two related, underlying issues behind next month’s elections. These issues drill to the core of our nation’s much-discussed widened political gulf. Each side sees the other’s position on these issues as evidence of ruthless authoritarianism.

But while our pundits to left and right appear irresolvably far apart, and while this center column strives to be as objective on such matters as possible, it is a relief that Stephen Macaulay and Bryan Williams see eye-to-eye on one important fact – wearing masks in public should not be a political issue. They agree that It is good citizenship and an important weapon in fighting the pandemic.

Please email your comments to editors@thehustings.news

—–

It’s Not the Masks We Reject; It’s the Mandate

By Bryan Williams

Joe Biden is running on a promise to America that he would protect us better from COVID-19 than Trump and his team. He has even gone so far as to say he would implement a national mask mandate. If the past 7 months has shown us anything it’s that Americans really don’t like being told what to do. But we’ve known that forever anyway - I mean a bunch of dudes threw perfectly good tea into Boston Harbor in the 1700s because they didn’t like King George telling them what to do.

We can go back and forth all day, split hairs over when a travel ban from China was put in place until we’re blue in the face, or whether or not President Trump wearing a mask would have made a big difference in the number of deaths related to COVID-19. I have never really given much credence to any of the above, and just go with what I know from my little corner of the world, and yes, I know this is anecdotal.

At the height of the pandemic, I worked in a mental health crisis clinic. We had no employer-provided masks for weeks and the layout of our building made it so social distancing was simply not possible. We also had no limit to the number of people we could admit. Patients we admitted were anyone from anywhere, most of them users of substances that inhaled, ingested, or intravenously injected those illicit substances with other people most assuredly in distances less than 6 feet, and many of them homeless. No one at my clinic in March through May 2020 contracted COVID-19 (my last day there was in May).

Then, in June, my family and I visited my parents (in their 60s) and grandparents (83 and 82) in Northern Nevada. All of us have used our common sense during the pandemic: we’ve worn masks everywhere we go, we socially distance ourselves as much as possible, and we limit our contact with others. Not a single one of us has contracted the coronavirus, and I think it’s because of my family’s common sense, prudence, and overall good health (we don’t smoke, vape or drink alcohol in excess, and we’re not morbidly obese).

What’s my point? I don’t think political leadership has a lot to do with whether or not people begin wearing masks or socially distance themselves more. Now I now work in a hospital, and I am around doctors all day. I cannot begin to tell you how many of them “wear” their mask with their nose still protruding in naked glory. These are men and women that should know better! Joe Biden mandating mask wearing won’t make these doctors pull their mask up over their nose. That old American chestnut -- personal responsibility -- still holds. Please wear a mask, and don’t party, okay? I just don’t want Joe Biden to tell me what to do. Donald J. Trump gets that.

Williams is a mental health professional in California and a former Republican party official.

Please email your comments to editors@thehustings.news

—–