By Todd Lassa

As expected, on The Day After, the U.S. Senate is still up for grabs. With Democrat John Fetterman (pictured) beating Trump-backed Dr. Mehmet Oz and picking up the Pennsylvania Senate seat made open by the retirement of never-Trumper Republican John Toomey, Republicans must win at least two of three undecided races currently held by Democrats, among Nevada, Georgia and Arizona. The Georgia race between Democratic Sen. Raphael Warnock and Trump-backed challenger Herschel Walker is likely to go to a December 6 runoff.

Donald J. Trump’s Senate victories Tuesday came in Ohio, where J.D. Vance beat U.S. Democratic Rep. Tim Ryan for the seat of another retiring moderate Republican, Rob Portman, and in Wisconsin, where incumbent Sen. Ron Johnson held off Democratic challenger Mandela Barnes.

The House of Representatives is still up for grabs too, with the GOP having gained just two of the five seats needed to flip the majority. NPR’s Domenico Montenaro told Morning Edition Wednesday that Republicans are likely to end up with a seven- to nine-seat gain. The resulting slim majority could pose a problem for Republican Speaker-in-Waiting Kevin McCarthy, who bent a knee for ex-President Trump shortly after the Senate voted to acquit him after his impeachment for inciting the January 6 Capitol insurrection.

McCarthy’s own vague plans for impeaching President Biden may be tougher than he had expected.

One surprising race that could flip a House seat to the Democrats: In Colorado’s 3rd Congressional District, pro-Trump Republican incumbent Lauren Boebert trails Democrat Adam Frisch in her re-election bid.

What the GOP had come to expect was this: Republicans lost 41 House seats in 2018 with Trump in the White House, and Democrats lost 63 seats in 2010 under President Barack Obama. 

It seems the same problem polling organizations had tracking Donald J. Trump v. Hillary Clinton in 2016 afflicted those organizations in 2022. Perhaps some of the intended voters who counted inflation and the economy as top concerns did not blame Biden for high inflation and the wobbly economy. 

Clearest indication that Trump is done as head of the GOP is Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis’ trouncing of Democratic candidate Charlie Crist for re-election, by nearly 20 percentage points, a day after the ex-prez warned “DeSanctimonious” he could “hurt himself very badly” if he launches a run for the 2024 Republican presidential nomination. Florida is now a deep-red state, with DeSantis having flipped formerly blue Miami-Dade Tuesday. Republican Sen. Marco Rubio also easily won re-election Tuesday.

Trump apparently still plans to make his “big announcement” next Tuesday to run again in 2024.

We have seen the GOP ready to “move on” before, from the time he lost the 2020 presidential election to the the January 6thCapitol insurrection and last August 8 when the FBI searched Mar-a-Lago for confidential government files. Is it for real this time? An article on FoxNews.com Wednesday contained the whole story in the headline, “Conservatives point finger at Trump after GOP’s underwhelming election results: ‘He’s never been weaker.’ Many conservatives say Tuesday’s election results show it’s ‘time to move on’ from Trump.”

After two years enduring Trump’s Big Lie, we may have taken a step back toward democracy.

(WED 11/9/22)

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COMMENTS: editors@thehustings.news

(THU 10/20/22)

British PM Resigns – Prime Minister Liz Truss has announced her resignation just 44 days into her term, the BBC reports. Her conservative party is to choose a successor by Friday, October 28. London’s Daily Star claimed victory for its 60-pence head of lettuce for outlasting the PM with the shortest term in British history.

--TL

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Biden Ups Midterm Ante on Abortion Issue (WED 10/19/22)

Codifying Roe v. Wade – President Biden announces Tuesday the first and foremost issue on his agenda for the second half of his term, if Democrats manage to hold majorities in both the House and Senate, will be a bill codifying Roe v. WadeThe Hill reports. Yes, that is a big “if”. With three weeks to go to the November 8 midterm elections, most polls show that intended voters rank inflation and the economy as their top issue, ahead of abortion rights.

The Hill helpfully notes that if Democrats do hold off the GOP in the House and Senate, such legislation could appear on or near the 50th anniversary of the Supreme Court’s Roe decision, January 23, 1973 which was overturned last summer by SCOTUS’ ruling on Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization.

Upshot: The White House’s gambit will only work for Democrats if it boosts turnout by pro-abortion rights voters in the midterms, rather than counts on changing minds among those who will vote by November 8 anyway.

•••

Record Early Voting in Georgia – The state’s first day of in-person early voting broke the midterm election record by Tuesday morning, The Atlanta Journal-Constitution reports, with nearly 123,000 voters turning out. If Georgia is any indication of the turnout nationally, its likely polls on individual races across the states will prove to be way off the mark.

Meanwhile: Numerous news reports indicate independent and moderate Republican and Democratic voters in Georgia are willing to split their tickets. That would be good news for both incumbent Republican Gov. Brian Kemp, whose Democratic challenger is Stacey Abrams, and incumbent Democratic Sen. Raphael Warnock, who is in a statistical tie in recent polls with Trumpian Republican challenger Herschel Walker.

--Edited by Todd Lassa

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Codifying Roe v. Wade – President Biden announces Tuesday the first and foremost issue on his agenda for the second half of his term, if Democrats manage to hold majorities in both the House and Senate, will be a bill codifying Roe v. WadeThe Hill reports. Yes, that is a big “if”. With three weeks to go to the November 8 midterm elections, most polls show that intended voters rank inflation and the economy as their top issue, ahead of abortion rights.

The Hill helpfully notes that if Democrats do hold off the GOP in the House and Senate, such legislation could appear on or near the 50th anniversary of the Supreme Court’s Roe decision, January 23, 1973 which was overturned last summer by SCOTUS’ ruling on Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization.

Upshot: The White House’s gambit will only work for Democrats if it boosts turnout by pro-abortion rights voters in the midterms, rather than counting on changing minds among those who will vote by November 8 anyway.

•••

Record Early Voting in Georgia – The state’s first day of in-person early voting broke the midterm election record by Tuesday morning, The Atlanta Journal-Constitution reports, with nearly 123,000 voters turning out. If Georgia is any indication of the turnout nationally, its likely polls on individual races across the states will prove to be way off the mark.

Meanwhile: Numerous news reports indicate independent and moderate Republican and Democratic voters in Georgia are willing to split their tickets. That would be good news for both incumbent Republican Gov. Brian Kemp, whose Democratic challenger is Stacey Abrams, and incumbent Democratic Sen. Raphael Warnock, who is in a statistical tie in recent polls with Trumpian Republican challenger Herschel Walker.

--Edited by Todd Lassa

Latest on the Midterms (MON 10/17/22)

Hill v. Point: A news alert Monday evening, October 17, from The Hill says Republicans are “growing more optimistic” that they will grab majorities in both the House of Representatives and the Senate after the November 8 midterms. Pollsters say the GOP is gaining momentum from the “stubborn” inflation rate being blamed on President Biden and the Democrats.

That alert was followed by The Point! by CNN’s Chris Cilizza who writes of a surprising poll by J. Ann Selzer for the Des Moines Register, placing Democrat Mike Franken in a statistical tie with Republican Sen. Chuck Grassley, who seeks his eighth term at age 89. Grassley, who hasn’t been seriously challenged in several terms, has 46% in Selzer’s poll to Franken’s 43%. 

Upshot: Selzer’s polls have been the most reliable since polls in general went south with the 2016 presidential race, Cilizza notes, and FiveThirtyEight rates her with a grade of A+.

•••

Early and mail-in voting are underway in many states as the November 8 midterm elections loom. While there is much new attention this year being paid on down-ballot races where elected state and county officials could potentially determine how future elections are conducted and counted, U.S. Senate races are in the national media spotlight. 

Specifically, three key Senate races are considered most likely to determine whether Democrats maintain power in the upper chamber or whether the GOP regains its control in January. 

Ohio: While Republican challenger, venture capitalist and Hillbilly Elegy author J.D. Vance holds the double-edge sword of Donald J. Trump’s endorsement, Democratic candidate Rep. Tim Ryan says he disagrees with his party’s leader, President Biden, on such issues as immigration policy. Vance and Ryan were scheduled to face off in their second of two debates Tuesday, October 18. The two candidates are in a statistical tie according to FiveThirtyEight, with Ryan polling an average of 45.1% to Vance’s 44.8% as of October 14.

Georgia: Republican challenger, football hero and Trump endorsee Herschel Walker has lost some support in the week or so since the Daily Beast reported a woman claims he paid for her abortion. Incumbent Democrat Raphael Warnock leads Walker 48% to 44.2% according to FiveThirtyEight averaging. Warnock would need at least 50% of the vote to win outright, however, to avoid a runoff likely against Walker. A third-party candidate, Libertarian Chase Oliver, is currently polling about 4% according to Fox News. Much of his November 8 votes would likely go to Walker in a runoff.

Nevada: Republican challenger Adam Laxalt leads incumbent Democrat Catherine Cortez Masto 45.1% to 44.5%, another statistical tie, according to FiveThirtyEight averaging. This despite 14 members of the Laxalt family, long politically prominent Republicans in Nevada, endorsed Cortez Masto over Laxalt’s embrace of his Trump-MAGA endorsement. Cortez Masto is losing Hispanic support over inflation and the economy, Newsweek reports, citing a USA Today/Suffolk University poll.

Meanwhile, in Pennsylvania: Lt. Gov. John Fetterman (D), endorsed by The Philadelphia Inquirer October 17, leads erstwhile Jersey guy and MAGA Republican Mehmet Oz by 48% to 42.4%, according to FiveThirtyEight, which means the GOP would have to win at least one challenge against a Democratic incumbent just to retain the 50-50 Senate split, a tie broken by Vice President Kamala Harris. This race is for a replacement to retiring Sen. Pat Toomey, a not-at-all-Trumper Republican.

--Compiled by Todd Lassa

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COMMENTS: editors@thehustings.news