Commentary by Stephen Macaulay
Although big companies — whether it is Boeing or Meta, Apple or General Motors, ExxonMobil or NVIDIA — get most of the attention, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, small businesses account for 99.9% of all business, are responsible for 46% of private-sector employment and make up some 40% of the US Gross Domestic Product.
Small businesses — private enterprises with fewer than 500 employees — matter in a big way.
Consequently, you would imagine that politicians at all levels — yes, including the White House — would be rather attentive to how small businesses in the US are operating and how those who run those companies are feeling.
And they’re not feeling swell.
According to the National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) Small Business Optimism Index, those business owners aren’t particularly optimistic.
In May their level of optimism was at 95.3, down 0.6 points from April.
While that might not seem like a big deal, consider this: The average over 52 years — yes, half a century-plus — was 98.0.
And here you have it: The Golden Age, the “hottest country in the world” isn’t making the people who are responsible for a big chunk of the economy and jobs feel very sunny.
What’s more (or in this case, less), people who run small businesses need to be more keenly aware of all elements of their operation, from the resilience of their supply chains to the cost of employee benefits, than the Big Guys, where there is a little manageable slop in the system.
Having as clear an outlook as is possible is key to small business owners.
The NFIB also tracks what it calls the “Uncertainty Index.”
Uncertainty is the opposite of clarity, and clarity is what small business owners are looking for.
The historical average of the Uncertainty Index is 68. A lower number is better than a higher number, which means more uncertainty.
What was the Uncertainty Index number in May?
91.
That’s nearly 34% above the average.
Some small business owners are probably rethinking their MAGA caps.
If you consider those results along with the University of Michigan’s Index of Consumer Sentiment, you’ve really got to question the business acumen of Trump, Lutnick and Bessent, just to name a few.
According to Joanne Hsu, director of the U-Mich surveys, “Sentiment is now just below the previous historical trough seen in June 2022.”
The number was 44.8 in May 2026.
The number was 50 in June 2022.
Although Trump likes to talk about the “bad economy” he inherited from Joe Biden, seems like his is measurably worse, whether you’re a business owner or buying goods and services from a business.
Macaulay is pundit-at-large for The Hustings.
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WEDNESDAY 6/10/26