Tag: Ford

Just Wait

Commentary By Stephen Macaulay

One thing that seems not to have happened, at least not in any major way, is the economy hasn’t gone on tilt since Liberation Day.

Of course, there are a few things to consider.

First of all, given the on-again/off-again nature of the tariffs for various countries, it has been difficult for businesses to figure out their pricing strategy going forward.

But this not to say that the tariffs aren’t having a negative effect on consumers’ pocketbooks.

You may have noticed stories about people who are rushing to buy their Christmas gifts. This is a whole other sort of “Christmas in July” — one predicated on people realizing going forward those toys and clothing are going to be considerably more expensive.

This buy-ahead phenomenon is making it seem that things are more robust than they are, or will be.

Those going into a Ford dealership to buy a Bronco Sport, Maverick or Mustang Mach-E today will find themselves paying several hundred dollars more — up to $2,000 — for one of those vehicles today than pre-Liberation Day.

Why? Because they are built in Mexico, which was just fine because of the USMCA that the Trump administration signed the first time to level the playing field. Somehow that no longer holds.

Its cross-town rival, General Motors, announced that in Q2 — meaning the inclusion of Liberation Day — it lost $1.1 billion because of tariffs. And it anticipates before the year is out there will be several billion added in red ink.

Why does that matter? Well, when the company loses billions of dollars, it has to find that money somewhere, and it will find at least some of it by raising prices.

And let’s add the other company that used to be in the “Big Three,” Stellantis, which has in its North American portfolio Chrysler, Dodge, Jeep and Ram. The international company announced its first half net revenues, €74.3 billion, which is down 13% compared to the first half of 2024.

Notably, the company estimates the “2025 net tariff impact to approximately €1.5 billion, of which €0.3 billion was incurred in H1 2025.”

In other words, a fraction was in the first half. The second is going to be seriously not good.

That is reflected in a statement from The Conference Board which says “the bulk of the economic weakness would likely affect Q4 and early 2026, later than we previously anticipated.”

It isn’t here entirely quite yet. But get ready.

Going back to autos, according to a statement by Charlie Chesbrough, senior economist at Cox Automotive, on July 28, things in the auto industry aren’t’ going particularly well: “And there’s no reason to believe trends are improving from here. We are seeing more tariffed products replacing existing inventory, and costs are trending higher. As those higher costs trickle through to retail, sales will likely soften in the coming months unless the economic direction improves.”

If a company is selling fewer cars, then it needs to make fewer cars. If it is making fewer cars, then it needs fewer people to build them.

While the unemployment rate is at a good level now, 4.1%, it is worth noting that according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics the number was a much better 3.5% in July 2023. It will be interesting to watch that figure in the second half when the tariffs really hit.

And while the University of Michigan survey on consumer confidence has the number rising to 61.8 points in July, up from 60.7 points in June, a year ago in July the number was at 66.4 points. If we take October 2024 as being the last month that can be ascribed to the Biden Administration, the number was 70.5 points. So again, while consumers are getting more confident than they were in April and May 2025 (both 52.2 points), they are a lot less confident now than they were a year ago.

According to a recent CBS News YouGov poll (and it is surprising that CBS let these numbers out, given the $16 million it paid to a lawsuit filed by the president):

  • 60% of US adults disapprove of the way Donald Trump is handling the economy
  • 64% disapprove of the way he is handling inflation
  • 59% think the national economy is fairly bad (33%) or very bad (26%)
  • 55% think the economy is getting worse

And realize this is before the tariffs really kick in.

Somehow I am mystified about the “Golden Age” ahead.

Macaulay is pundit-at-large for The Hustings, where he writes primarily – though clearly not always – as a conservative for the right column.

_____
THURSDAY 7/31/25

A New Hat For America

By Jim McCraw

While it is maddening to know that President-elect Biden couldn’t get a really good start on 2021 between President Trump’s recalcitrance and COVID-19, there will eventually be a Biden administration, and it will be in trouble up to its hips from Day One.

Herewith, a suggestion for Biden/Harris I believe is important, and eminently doable. As Congress fights over both short- and long-term follow-up bills to the Coronavirus Aid, Relief and Economic Security Act (CARES), which ends the day after Christmas, I think it might be time for something as ambitious (though relatively easy, considering the big funding levels already proposed) and quick to do as President Franklin Delano Roosevelt’s Civilian Conservation Corps (CCC), circa 1933. Let’s call the new one the American Reconstruction Corps (ARC).

Lord knows there are plenty of skilled and unskilled people out of work.  And there are plenty of American infrastructure projects, largely ignored by the previous administration, that need doing.

Biden is not FDR, and we do not have a modern Robert Moses, the mid-20th Century “master builder” of New York, Long Island, Rochester and Westchester counties (it’s certainly not Donald J. Trump).

We are not Frank Lloyd Wright, the Ford Motor Company Whiz Kids, nor the first seven astronauts. We are just Americans who recognize a need to get a lot of things done by a mass of people willing to work. There has got to be a way to do this.

With widespread distribution of COVID-19 vaccines likely coming with warmer weather next summer, why couldn’t we dispatch squadrons of out-of-work Americans to do road, tunnel and bridge repairs that have been waiting years for funding and final approvals?  And not just men, which is how the original CCC operated. Skilled and unskilled women need work, too. At, say, $20 per hour.

Why not send platoons of the willing into every one of the national parks to do repairs and cleaning?

While the original CCC troops had uniforms, meals and housing, I humbly suggest self-provided work clothing, bring-your-own meals, work near home, and ARC baseball caps in red, white and blue.

There will be periodic need for FEMA supplies and equipment after summer storms, so why not divert some FEMA funding, vehicles and materiel to help Americans fix the things that are already broken?

Yes, men and women working and sweating in close quarters for eight-hour days may be problematic from a health standpoint, but with masks, distancing and frequent washing and spraying, I think it could work. Let’s get some guys from Amazon, Apple, AT&T, Ford, Google and Tesla to volunteer, put them in a room and see if they can figure this out while Biden and Harris get on with the rest of the recovery.

—–