Whither the Democrats? The Answer Doesn’t Matter

By Stephen Macaulay

The question of what does the Democratic Party do now is a rather premature one, I think, as Trump has yet (as of this writing) to admit that he didn’t win another landslide.

But let’s face it: Pundits have to write about something political because we like to think that nature abhors a vacuum of pithy observations.

The question is one that breaks down this way: Who runs the show? It would seem that the obvious answer to that is Joe Biden, based on his proclamation during the first debate with Trump: “I am the Democratic Party right now.” A centrist. An institutionalist. A regular Joe.

But then there is the counter to that, one that has it that the more progressive wing of the Party ought to take flight and lead efforts to create what they presume is a more equitable society, not one that gives, as the slogan has it with surprising accuracy, “tax breaks to the rich.”

This would include the likes of Bernie Sanders, an avowed socialist, and the members of The Squad—Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (N.Y.), Ilhan Omar (Minn.), Ayanna Pressley (Mass.), and Rashida Tlaib (Mich.) —who aren’t going to take any guff from anyone. Biden, presumably, included.

That there was no “Blue Wave” is generally attributed to the idea that “Defund the Police” and the word socialism played so broadly in the campaign runup.

What I find to be rather remarkable is that for presumably being the party of smart, pointy-headed people (or so it is widely presumed in many places across the country, both rural and otherwise), a party where there are top-notch marketers and professorial linguists, the Democrats surely do a—dare I say?—crappy job when it comes to language. (Trump has used more extreme language, so I am hopeful this passes muster at The Hustings.)

Consider “Defund the Police.” That is a scary thought for many urbanites and suburbanites, especially the latter, who are afraid that there are going to be marauders coming into their cul de sacs.

The term is the audible version of “bad optics.”

Why isn’t there some clever Democrat who comes up with an explanation that people might be able to understand? Like the Nathan Fillion TV show “Castle”, where a mystery writer partners with an NYPD detective and manages to solve cases. In the case of “Defund the Police,” it could be on calls where there are undoubtedly mental health issues, joining the police might be a mental health professional. The funding is shifted.

Seem like a stupid example? Maybe. But it is something that regular people can understand. Regardless of party affiliation. (“Hey, Dot, did you hear they’re pulling a ‘Castle’ at the police department? Now they’re getting somewhere.”)

As for the socialist* charge: Let’s face it, there are a whole lot of Boomers who might fondly remember their days in the late ‘60s and early ‘70s when they knew of people in the SDS but who have now 401Ks that they’re concerned with and the notion of wealth distribution is something that is now anathema to them. Given that there are Democrats who openly self-define as socialist, this is going to be a tough one to shift.

But here’s the thing: none of this may matter. If McConnell maintains control of the Senate, there is going to be very little happening that isn’t caused by executive order.

After all, as Biden might say (though in English): l'état c'est moi.

*One of the missed opportunities that the Democrats had was to brand Trump a “Stalinist.” Seriously. Stalin created a cult of personality. Check. Stalin wanted to concentrate power within the state, including the separation from other countries. Check.Stalin called those who weren’t with him “enemies of the people.” Check. Stalin purged high-ranking officials who didn’t hew to his line. Check. And there are several more examples. This is not to say that the real Donald Trump is a murderous thug who was responsible for the deaths of millions as Stalin was (although when history is written, there are going to be numbers of deaths from COVID-19 that will be ascribed to Trump’s behavior). It is to say that in a world that seems to be defined by unreality (“The election was rigged!”), simple labels can have consequences.

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End of the Republican Party?

By Stephen Macaulay

In the early 1980s I worked at a conservative think tank. I spoke at Hillsdale College. I got published in The Wall Street Journal. I attended an Adam Smith meeting. So I have some bona fides in that space.

And I am mystified as to why anyone thinks that Donald Trump is in any way, shape or form a conservative.

Among the things that conservatives believe in are family values. The comments he made to Howard Stern about his older daughter or the “Access Hollywood” tape invalidate that one. As does his administration’s treatment of children who were taken from their parents as part of his immigration program. While borders and national identity are important to conservatives, does anyone think that if the sanctity of the family is an essential aspect of Judeo-Christian existence there couldn’t have been a better way of dealing with those families?

Another aspect of conservatism is a belief in free markets. Given the tariffs that Trump seemingly willy-nilly applied on our allies (e.g., does anyone think that Canada’s aluminum capacity is in some way a threat to our national security: Were we to go to war with a country in Europe or Asia, what is the likelihood that our strong ally to the north would say, “Naw, you can’t have our aluminum?”), the aforementioned Smith would have been rolling in his grave were he an American. Yes, there is general consensus among conservatives and liberals that something must be done with regard to Chinese trade policies, yet Trump’s alleged deal-making prowess isn’t working out so well. While during phase one of a trade deal China was supposed to buy more than $200 billion in goods and services, it is way behind; during the first eight months of 2020 China purchased $69.5-billion of farm and manufactured goods, or $10.7-billion less than the same period in 2017.

Of course, fiscal restraint, or responsibility, is certainly a bulwark of conservatism. So how is that working out? According to the Treasury department, on September 30, 2017 (the first year of his presidency) the debt was $20.2 trillion. The same date in 2018, $21.5-trillion. 2019, $22.7-trillion. And September 30, 2020: $26.9-trillion. Seems like that one doesn’t fly, either.

There is the question of “what does the Republican Party do?” post-Trump.

I have a question as to “what is” the Republican Party.

To quote from its 2020 platform:

“RESOLVED, That the Republican Party has and will continue to enthusiastically support the President’s America-first agenda;

RESOLVED, That the 2020 Republican National Convention will adjourn without adopting a new platform until the 2024 Republican National Convention. . . .

RESOLVED, That any motion to amend the 2016 Platform or to adopt a new platform, including any motion to suspend the procedures that will allow doing so, will be ruled out of order.”

It is the party of Trump, not a party of conservativism. What it once was and what it has devolved into are two different things. It once had principles. It now seems to have nothing more than blind obedience.

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An ‘Agenda’ Filled With Executive Orders

By Bryan Williams

Copious amounts of ink have been spilled since Joe Biden became president-elect about his vision for the country. Some have even said he has a mandate based on the record 78.7 million people who voted for him. Really? 50.9 percent is a mandate?

I expect a lot of Joe's first 100 days -- or even the first two years of his term -- will be government by executive order. We have a divided government, and that will most likely still be the case after Georgia choses its two U.S. Senators in its runoff elections in early January. Divided government is good in that no one person or party can steamroll through a partisan agenda. Look at what the Democrats did with Obamacare when they owned the White House and the Capitol building, or what the Republicans did with the tax cuts early in President Trump's term.

I think we too often look towards the government to define American life and history when we should look more towards our people: no government told Henry Ford to build a car, no government told Jeff Bezos to sell books online, and no government told Andy Warhol to paint.

Joe Biden will most likely be a caretaker president and won’t make any sea changes. One area he may have a slight effect is in foreign affairs. There is a lot of work to do to re-engage America in the world after Trump's retrenchment. I am a bit fearful of what Biden may do regarding foreign affairs. I mean, he advised against sending in the strike team that killed Osama bin Laden. I'm sure he'll bring the US back into the Paris Accords, but last time I checked, the skies in my neighborhood wasn't so much polluted by CO2 released by humans as it was by massive forest fires that no international accord could account for.

Here's to governmental gridlock. May Joe Biden's term shift the focus to the innovators and people that fill our great fruited plain with ideas, hard work, and hopes and dreams.

Williams is a mental health professional and former Republican party official in California.

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Campaign Finance Reform, Then Third-Party Success

By Chase Wheaton

Sentiment that the current political system in the United States is extremely flawed and broken is not new to true progressives. Progressive Democrats have been advocating for serious campaign reform for many years, saying our current political system does not benefit the majority of people in our country in the way that it was meant to, but instead favors wealthy elites and upper-class folks who can use their wealth to influence the platforms and positions of the candidates that run for office and get elected.

Often, political candidates who lose elections can’t blame their party affiliation or their policy positions, but instead lost because they lack the finances and fundraising required to run a legitimately successful campaign in this country’s political system. Perfect examples are the third-party candidates who run for president every four years. Millions of Americans probably identify more closely with such candidates than with either of the two major party candidates, but sadly these third parties do not have the cross-country fundraising efforts necessary to promote their platforms, positions, and ideas, and therefore they struggle to recruit voters to support their candidacy.

I believe that a multi-party system could improve voter turnout and overall engagement within our democratic process and create much more significant and tangible change in our country than we’ve seen from any previous major party candidate. However, I also believe we need to reform our political process before we can have a successful multi-party system that doesn’t simply reward the wealthiest candidates who outspend their opponents on the way to victory. Unfortunately, the Democratic and Republican party establishments are powerful entities that benefit from this current system, which is why it should be no surprise that the only major candidate in the last two presidential primaries who has fought for serious campaign finance reform is Bernie Sanders, a registered independent.

Serious political reform will only happen when a substantial number of our officials are elected after spending grassroots donations, and not massive donations from millionaires and billionaires, as these are the only politicians that will be willing to push and vote for campaign finance reform. Once campaign finance laws are changed, I don’t think it’ll be long before we see other major changes to our political process, including allowing for a multi-party system. Sadly, until that happens, some of the fiercest advocates for a multi-party system that I personally know are in the greatest peril of having their human rights stripped away under another Trump or GOP presidency.

While some voted for third party candidates in 2016 when they were more confident Trump would lose, this year, the need to vote for a viable presidential candidate who doesn’t disregard basic human rights was more important than the desire to make their vote a statement about the country’s political process.

Wheaton is a higher education professional working in university housing, based in Greenville, N.C.

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Why Just Two?

By Stephen Macaulay

A friend of mine said to me yesterday that he’d cast his ballot some weeks earlier. He said, “I didn’t vote for either of those two. As the father of a daughter I couldn’t vote for Trump. As the owner of a small business I couldn’t vote for Biden.”

He voted for Jo Jorgensen, Libertarian candidate for president. Not that he had any illusion that she would win. He just wanted to participate in our democracy.

He told me that this is the second presidential cycle he’s done that.

Mind you he is a well-educated owner of a profitable, family-owned business. Twenty years ago he might have been a Democrat. Now that he is in his 50s, I would have guessed Republican.

His position isn’t exactly “a pox on both of your houses.”

It is more of “I can’t see how either of these people is going to help me.”

As we wait for the results, there is undoubted feeling of rancor among both sides.

Many Trump supporters undoubtedly think that Biden supporters are a bunch of latte-sipping snowflakes who don’t understand the meaning of the word freedom.

And on the Biden side they’re seeing a gang of overweight patrons of outlet malls.

Neither is correct.

Both sides are Americans. Both sides are participating in the electoral process. Both sides think their guy is the right one for the country.

One side is going to be pissed when the last ballot has been counted. Or the last lawsuit settled.

If one wins with the majority of the popular vote but loses the Electoral College, there will be an outcry to abolish that mechanism. Undoubtedly there will be some action.

But is that enough?

Why is it that people like Jo Jorgensen don’t have a snowball’s chance?

Why is it that there are just two parties that seem to matter?

Maybe instead of just going for direct voting there should be more adjustments made to the system as it exists.

Perhaps we should take a page from the British system, which has campaigns running for four weeks. People and parties that are less well-funded than the Republicans and Democrats would not be at the huge disadvantage that they are now. While some would say that the wealthy candidate would just pour it on for those 30 or so days, let’s look at it this way: If you have a glass that you fill with water, at some point it is full and no matter how much more you put in it there won’t be more. Arguably the same could be said for political ads.

You won’t be happy today.

I won’t be happy today.

But do you know who won’t be unhappy?

My friend who voted Libertarian.

Macaulay is The Hustings’ pundit-at-large.

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In the Opera of Presidential Elections, No Need for Third Parties

By Bryan Williams

It has been eight days since the election and it appears most of the media and country have accepted that Joseph Robinette Biden will be our 46th president. However, Arizona and a few other states are still counting, and recounts are inevitable either by law or by the Trump campaign’s request. The plump lady hasn’t sung yet, if you ask me. There was no political violence after the election as feared, and the nearly 72 million Americans who voted for President Trump peacefully heard the results and have so far doggedly remained steadfast with a glimmer of hope that Trump will win.

And yet, I sympathize with the center column writer. In 2016 I was dubious of both candidates Clinton and Trump and voted for a third party. Even I, a grizzled Republican vet, bought into the media narrative that Trump would be a disaster as president, so I made a protest vote. I was a bit scared of what Trump meant for our country’s future, but the past four years has been a surprise. Like many, I don’t care for the president’s more acidic behaviors, but for the most part the Trump presidency has been just fine for America and has not led to her ruin. I feel like America won’t be ruined either if or when Biden is certified as the winner, and not just because it looks as if the GOP will keep the Senate. I have more faith than that in the American people and believe one-party rule would be our own worst enemy – just look at California.

Elections, even those not held during an unprecedented global pandemic and with nearly universal mail-in balloting, take time. Give the poll workers time. Give the lawyers some time. Give the judges some time. We live in an age that is ever more used to instantaneous results and gratification. We have to get this election right, and as Sen. Mitch McConnell said, President Trump is well within his rights to challenge everything he legally can.

So let’s wait to hear the singing from the plump lady, shall we? Remember whatever the outcome, we all appeal to the better angels of our nature and act as responsible, dignified American voters. We will get up the next day and go to work and love and care for our children. And we will hope. Hope the best for America no matter who is elected president. I won’t be unhappy either. But I am willing to wait for that singing.

Williams is a mental health professional and former Republican party official in California.

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View of Election Night from the Left

Nov. 5 UPDATE: There has been no "blue wave" in the U.S. Senate, with Mitch McConnell, R-Ky., expected to retain his position as majority chairman. [He has since suggested the Senate consider a second coronavirus relief package before the presidential inauguration, a shift from a previous position that it would not be considered until after Jan. 20.] Currently, the Senate makeup is 48-48, with Democrats up one seat and Republicans down by one. The GOP will almost certainly win two more, with incumbents Dan Sullivan of Alaska, and David Perdue of Georgia expected to retain their leads. Of the two remaining, incumbent Sen. Thom Tillis, R-N.C., leads Democratic challenger Cal Cunningham, 48.7 percent to 46.9 percent, though with 94 percent of the ballots counted, Tillis could lose if Biden ultimately flips the state. The second is a special election in Georgia for its other Senate seat, where Democratic candidate Raphael Warnock, at 32.7 percent of the vote with 96 percent of the ballots in, and incumbent Republican Kelly Loeffler, at 26.1 percent, edged out Republican challenger Doug Collins at 20.1 percent. The runoff will be held in January.

The Hustings asked contributing liberal pundits to tell us their thoughts of the presidential election just before turning in for the night. Whether because they were still watching well into Wednesday as we went to post, or because they fell asleep trying to wait out the results, our responses have been rather limited. Here’s what we heard back:

For liberal pundit Michelle Naranjo, Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden’s failure to strike a decisive blow against the Trump campaign is disappointing, though perhaps not much of a surprise.

“There is a blazing red mirage in front of the U.S. map tonight,” she writes. “Ballot counts appear close, and possibly even dire for the Biden, but much like Trump’s escapades, it is temporary smoke and mirrors.

“Republicans appear to be leading in vote tallies, but in-person votes (heavily Republican) are being counted before mail-in ballots, which typically skew Democratic voters. Tomorrow, and even the days following should pull the real results into focus.”

As noted in his last left column [“Fair and Unbalanced,” Nov. 3], Stephen Macaulay is at home, either watching “The Mandalorian” or reading a book.

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Shifting Allegiances in The Villages

By Jim McCraw

The Villages, in Central Florida, is the country’s largest retirement community, with some 130,000 residents in one contiguous settlement spread across three counties. It has been a Republican stronghold for a long, long time.

The population here is vastly white, upper middle-class Christian, with a few Jewish, Black and Hispanic residents.

The Villages boasts the world’s largest American Legion post. It helped elect U.S. Navy veteran Rick Scott governor twice, then helped send the Republican to the U.S. Senate. He was replaced by former Congressman Ron DeSantis, a fellow Republican and now the youngest governor in the country, just 42 when he took office.

The Villages are represented in the House by Republican Daniel Webster. Almost all of the county supervisors in Sumter, Lake and Marion counties, on which The Villages are built, are Republican.

Sumter county routinely has the highest voter turnout in the entire state. Trump was swept into office in 2016, but his margin over Hillary Clinton was 1.2 percent in Florida. That’s about 112,900 votes.

Things have changed over the last four years, and now there is much more support here for Democrat Joe Biden. Disenchanted Republicans have been coming in to The Villages Democratic Club headquarters in Wildwood, the largest in Florida, since May to complain about Trump and ask how they can volunteer to help Biden’s campaign, says its president, Chris Stanley.

She estimates 5.8 percent of Republicans in The Villages who voted for Trump in 2016 will vote for Biden on Tuesday. The disaffected cite three big reasons for switching candidates.

“Reason number one is his handling of the coronavirus and his lack of leadership. Reason number two is his view of military veterans as ‘suckers’ and ‘losers.’ They don’t like that. Reason number three is policy, the elimination [deferral] of the payroll tax [to mitigate economic effects of pandemic shutdowns], because it will affect their children and grandchildren.”

Republican Voters Against Trump recently completed a $3 million disgruntled-voter billboard campaign across Central Florida with messages like “I’m a Republican. I’m a patriot. I’m voting Biden.” … “I’m a Republican. I’m a Marine veteran. I’m voting Biden.” … “I’m a Republican. I’m a Christian. I’m voting Biden.”

“A lot of Republican voters are going to be casting their votes for Joe Biden because the last four years, what they expected they were going to get from the Trump administration has not been what they want, and Joe Biden is offering them an alternative to bring this country back,” says Daniel Henry, a young, Black Republican voter.

This year more than 40 percent of the state’s 14.4 million registered voted early, and Florida election experts predict the turnout in 2020 will exceed the 1992 record of 83 percent -- which could mean more than 100,000 from The Villages alone. There are signs that Florida could swing to the Democratic side, much as Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin flipped to the GOP four years ago, and The Villages, so solid-red for so long, will contribute to this swing.

Jim McCraw is a semi-retired writer and columnist. He has been a resident of The Villages for nearly five years.

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Red, White & Blue Golf Carts at The Villages

By Todd Lassa

By the time former Vice President Joe Biden became the Democratic nominee for president this year, political pundits were still looking at the electoral college map like it was 2016 all over again. Could President Trump maintain his popularity and turn Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin blue once again?

Florida has 29 electoral college votes, however, to Pennsylvania’s 20, Michigan’s 16 and Wisconsin’s 10. It is one of the more reliably red states in play according to the latest polls, along with North Carolina, Arizona and even Texas.

Biden holds a 1.2-point lead over Trump in RealClearPolitics’ Oct. 30 average of 11 polls for Florida, which happens to be the same percentage victory that Trump had over Hillary Clinton in 2016. Four years ago, Trump’s RealClearPoilitics poll average was 0.2 points above Clinton just before the election.

Key to Florida’s choice next Tuesday will be the vote from The Villages, with its 130,000-plus residents, most of them seniors over 55, and many of whom vote assiduously. Residents motor around The Villages largely in electric golf carts. (In 2005 The Villages entered The Guinness World Records with a parade of 3,321 golf carts.) These carts make a great political news story photo op, as many of their owners festoon them with campaign signs.

Before and after the ’16 presidential election, the vast majority of those carts in The Villages were plastered with pro-Trump signs, piloted by seniors wearing red MAGA hats. This time, national media have covered a large influx of Biden-blue golf carts. Is it real, or is it an anomaly, with a handful of outspoken Democrats infiltrating the deep-red retirement neighborhood? Our resident of The Villages and our former GOP official from California discuss, in the left and right columns, respectively.

Please address your comments to editors@thehustings.news

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Greasing the Skids for Red MAGA-Hatted Golf Carts

By Bryan Williams

Imagine, if you will, a remake of the musical “Grease” for 2020, this time with senior citizens in their decked out hot rod golf carts. The concrete Los Angeles River is now a concrete pathway around a pristine Florida 55-plus housing development known as The Villages. Instead of racing for teenage glory and pink slips, these Villagers are in the horse race of presidential politics. Much hay has been made recently of a breakaway group of seniors parading in their golf carts for Joe Biden, when in 2016 The Villages went 70-percent for Trump, according to Courthouse News Service.

All indications point to this election being very close, just as it was in 2016. Trump won Florida by barely more than 1 percent. If it is indeed true that 5.8-percent of senior residents are changing their votes for Biden, this spells trouble for Trump. However, the same Courthouse News article reported that Trump held a rally at the Villages on Oct. 23 with all the pomp, cheering, and excited Trump voters that we have come to expect.

This seems like a hard one to call. Which way will Florida go? We all know that Trump was carried by seniors in 2016 and their support is critical in this round. Will losing nearly 6 percent of The Villages make a difference? Yes. Elections are very close these days. I worked for a California Republican candidate who won an election by 213 votes out of over 25,000 cast. That’s less than 1 percent.

And yet, polls show Florida is a toss-up with 1 percent to 2 percent separating each candidate. There is so much dueling data out there this election year that it can be hard to make sense of any of it. What should we choose? I’ll double down and stick with my prediction that Trump will eke out a win this year. It will be close -- a photo finish between blue Biden- and red MAGA-bedecked golf carts.

Williams is a mental health professional and former Republican party official in California.

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ACB on the Court Means the End of Gay Rights, Roe vs. Wade

By Chase Wheaton

Before Monday evening’s confirmation of Amy Coney Barrett to the Supreme Court, Mitch McConnell spoke to the Senate and painted a vivid picture of the GOP’s mindset regarding its role in the current political landscape, saying “A lot of what we've done over the last four years will be undone sooner or later by the next election. They won't be able to do much about this for a long time to come.”

It seems to me that Senator McConnell has seen the proverbial writing on the wall, and that he knows that the American electorate is turning out in record numbers to demand change, which is why he capitalized on the Supreme Court vacancy before his power as Senate majority leader comes to a close. Whether McConnell believes that Biden will win, that Democrats will regain control of the Senate, or that both will occur, he knows that he will never again be able to influence the country in the name of conservative politics like he can now, and so, similar to a child flipping over a board game just before he or she loses, Donald Trump and the entire GOP knowingly went against the will of the majority of Americans to shape the legal and political landscape of this country in their image for decades to come.

This means that McConnell and Trump have successfully created a Supreme Court that’s more conservative than it has been in almost 70 years, and that represents their own interests, ideals, and beliefs rather than those of the American people.

Given President Trump’s legislative record, and compared with the number of Supreme Court appointments by previous presidents, this is by far Trump’s greatest accomplishment. For perspective, President Trump, in his one term, has appointed more Supreme Court justices than any other one-term Republican president since Herbert Hoover in 1929. In fact, in recent history, while the Republican party has lost six of the last seven popular votes, they have appointed five of the last nine Supreme Court justices.

If the Democratic Party has any hope of passing meaningful legislation or creating significant change in the next 10 to 20 years, they must seriously consider expanding the court and adding justices that reflect the values of the American people, and not those of a one-term, impeached president and a power-hungry white man from Kentucky. Otherwise, in a few years, as a gay man, I will be waving goodbye to my right to get married, and millions of women will be waving goodbye to their right to an abortion.

Wheaton is a higher education professional working in university housing, based in Greenville, N.C.

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All the Metaphors

By Andrew Boyd

I struggle to talk about these debates in the fashion of the day, as if we were watching something as superficial as a UFC bout; but as political heavyweight contests go, there were no big surprises. Adopting as non-partisan perspective as I can manage, I thought both men got in their shots, but the roundhouses were few and far between, and neither combatant went face-to-canvas.

Trump’s best line of attack was the right hook to Joe’s legacy as a careerist pol, and the watery, flavorless stone soup of ‘accomplishments’ over 47 long years that should do little to satiate anyone’s desire for a candidate possessed of the capacity, desire or will to affect meaningful change in any direction.

If fate elects Joe, I’ll take what solace I can in the fact that he’s no ideologue and mostly just a guy looking to fill out his political butterfly collection with the rare Potus-excremus. Nothing new, certainly nothing better, but probably no worse than business as usual.

I’m in the species of conservative who thinks Washington is rotten down to its core, whose vote for Trump was a message to the D.C. establishment, left, right and center, that the game is up. And it’s that same disgust for Washington’s three-card monte that will pull the lever for DJT once again.

I think Donald, for all his many foibles, has a genuine love of country and a desire to do the right thing by his countrymen and women. That, for me, is the trump card in a deck full of one-eye jacks. Establishment Washington wouldn’t know a straight deal if they saw one; and worse yet, if they did, they’d form a posse to hang that dealer, which is more or less what played out as the Mueller probe over the past three years.

Get in there Donald and break some shit!

Please email your comments to editors@thehustings.news

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Biden Holds a Big Lead Over Trump, but How Reliable Are The Polls This Time?

By Todd Lassa

Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden holds an 8.9-point lead over President Donald J. Trump (51.2 percent to 42.3 percent) according to an average of major political polls by Real Clear Politics. It is reasonable to ask whether the president’s Friday morning tweet slamming Sen. Susan Collins helps or hurts the Republican senator from Maine now fighting for her political life, who has said she will not vote in favor of Judge Amy Coney Barrett’s nomination to the U.S. Supreme Court. Collins faces a daunting challenge from Democrat Sara Gideon, Maine’s House speaker, in the Nov. 3 elections.

The president’s Friday tweet reads, “There is a nasty rumor out there that @Susan Collins of Maine will not be supporting our great United States Supreme Court Nominee. Well, she didn’t support Healthcare or my opening up 5000 square miles of Ocean to Maine, so why should this be any different. Not worth the work.”

Closing in on two weeks before the Nov. 3 national elections, the real threat of a Blue Wave accompanying a Biden win would entail a big swing from the GOP’s 53-47 Senate majority, and potentially has Democrats building on their 233-196 majority in the House. Even relatively secure Senate Republicans may be hedging their bets.

Sen. Ben Sasse, R-Nebraska, as a member of the Judiciary Committee handled Supreme Court nominee Barrett with kid gloves earlier this week but criticized President Trump’s Thursday night Town Hall on NBC in a conference call to constituents, the Washington Examiner reports.

Trump “kisses dictators’ butts,” “sells out our allies” and “trash-talks evangelicals behind their backs,” Sasse reportedly said. He further slammed the president for “mistreating women” and initially “ignoring COVID.” Trump supporters will note that Sasse is considered an early contender for the 2024 Republican presidential nomination, a race Donald Trump Jr. may fight if the GOP balance of power remains in his family’s orbit.

While having brushed off polls showing a huge deficit to former Vice President Biden for many weeks, Trump himself has predicted a repeat of his 2016 campaign performance, which means he’s closing in, especially in the final week. Four years ago Trump gained on Hillary Clinton after the former secretary of state led many polls only by four or five points, often within statistical error of a tie. This year, Trump must overcome landslide-style deficits nationally as well as large margins in battleground states, and even in erstwhile Republican strangleholds like Arizona and North Carolina, where Sens. Martha McSally and Thom Tillis face potential losses to their Democratic challengers.

Our right-column pundit thinks President Trump has a big chance of pulling off another upset, and our left-column pundit, having been gobsmacked by the 2016 election worries the argument holds many valid points.

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Incumbent Trump is Set to Pull Out a Second Upset

By Bryan Williams

Predictions can be a wily business. Some tout that they have never been wrong since Dewey vs. Truman (and go on to be right), and some make grandiose claims and flame out. Others stick to a version of, “It’s the economy, stupid,” and base their prediction off what Wall Street investors think/say/invest in. Here is my first ever presidential prediction: Donald Trump will eke out a slim win (again) and get four more years. Here’s why:

Since 1952, political “outsiders” or candidates who are younger than their opponent have had advantage in key races. World War II general and war hero Dwight D. Eisenhower had far less political experience than Democrat Adlai Stevenson, yet beat him by a landslide, twice. Reagan had less political experience than Mondale, Clinton had less experience and was younger than Bush 41 while Bush 43 had less experience than either Gore or Kerry, and Obama had way less experience than McCain and is younger than Romney. Trump had no formal political experience and beat Clinton, and often compares his 45 or so months in the Oval Office to Biden’s 47 years Inside the Beltway.

Advantage, Trump.

Enthusiasm level: Who’s excited about Joe Biden? His supporters’ excitement appears to be, he’s “not Trump.” Will this equate to black and Latino voters turning out in big numbers for Biden? I am dubious. Trump voter’s enthusiasm level is also higher than Biden’s, according to David Sirota in the left-leaning online magazine Jacobin, citing a September Fox News poll that gives the president an 11-point margin in this category. Advantage: Trump.

Vote shaming: This is the common occurrence of people feeling their support of a candidate is shamed by popular opinion, as fueled by news and social media platforms. It’s safe to say that there are a lot of people afraid to admit they plan to vote for Trump. Many of those who like Trump will let their voices be heard at the ballot box. These are the voters Richard Nixon called “the silent majority.” Advantage: Trump.

While Trump had an obvious and clear electoral college victory by midnight Eastern time – 9 p.m. my time four years ago – pundits this year are predicting there will be no clear winner before Nov. 4, and perhaps not until much later. This is where the “Two Vs,” Valencia County, New Mexico, and Vigo County, Indiana, will come in handy. As small-population rural counties, their numbers should be counted not long after the polls close on Nov. 3. Vigo County has chosen the president all but twice since 1888, and Valencia County has been perfect since 1952. Keep your eye on Valencia and Vigo. I predict they will lead the nation to four more years for Trump.

But it’s gonna be close, folks.

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