…meanwhile…

CPI Falls to 4.0% -- The Consumer Price Index fell to an annual rate of 4.0% in May, down from 4.9% in April, the Labor Department reported Tuesday. Prices were up 0.1% on a monthly basis, with highest increase for shelter, followed by used cars and trucks, according to the department’s Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Food prices were up 6.7% on an annual level, offset in part by an 11.7% drop in energy prices. The CPI for all items less food and energy was +5.3% in May.

Most economists believe the Federal Reserve, which holds its latest regular meeting Tuesday through Thursday will forego an interest rate increase for the first time in about two years.

•••

Truce for McCarthy and Freedom Caucus – Last week’s disagreement between Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) and “conservatives” dominated by the Freedom Caucus, which clogged up legislation in the House is over for now, Roll Call reports. “Members of the rebel bloc made it clear” Monday “it may not be the end of trouble” for McCarthy.

There were even whispers last week of the possibility of a motion to vacate, in which one representative can call for a vote that would recall the speaker. The brouhaha stemmed from Freedom Caucus members who objected to what they saw as a debt ceiling deal favoring President Biden. Last week, the hard-right bloc blocked votes on bills otherwise favorable to them, including one that would prevent regulation or banning of gas stoves.

Trouble ahead: The MAGA/Freedom Caucus bloc reopened the House floor to action this week in exchange for renegotiating the “power-sharing” agreement they worked out with McCarthy to give him the speaker’s gavel, Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-FL) told reporters Monday. Short of unspecified “progress” Gaetz said, “perhaps we’ll be back here next week.”

Why the quote marks?: We put “conservatives” in quotes, above, because we presume most, if not all, 222 House Republicans consider themselves leaning right. The Freedom Caucus currently counts 46 members, a bit more than one-tenth the size of the House membership.

--Compiled and edited by Todd Lassa

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COMMENTS: editors@thehustings.news

…meanwhile…

TRUMP’S PERP WALK – Does Manhattan DA Alvin Bragg have a case against Donald J. Trump? Read our center-column analysis of Bragg’s 34-count indictment charging the ex-prez with “Falsifying business records…” scroll down this center column, then read right- and left-column opinions.

Congress remains on Easter/Passover/Ramadan break. Both chambers return Monday, April 17, with the House in session through Thursday, April 20, and the Senate in session through Friday, April 21. The Hustings returns that week.

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FRIDAY 4/7/23

Economy Adds a Cool 236k Jobs – The Labor Department counted 236,000 new jobs added in March, compared with 326,000 jobs in February, indicating a cooling economy, finally; a sign the Federal Reserve’s efforts to bring down inflation with nine consecutive interest rate increases is taking hold. Despite the new jobs number released by the Labor Department’s Bureau of Labor Statistics Friday, the unemployment rate fell slightly from 3.6% in February to 3.5% in March, and average hourly earnings were up 4.2% last month, “also easing from recent months” according to The Wall Street Journal.

Job growth continues in leisure and hospitality, government, professional and business services, and health care, the BLS reports.

Lingering question: Will the Fed’s interest rate increases lead the economy to a “soft landing,” or are we headed for a recession?

--TL

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Does Bragg Have a Case?

By Todd Lassa

New York County Indictment #71543-23 had Democratic pundits, anti-Trump-leaning independents and never-Trump Republicans feeling anxious about the solidity of Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg Jr.’s 34-count case against the former president.

Was it the wrong case to come first – or at all -- considering Fulton County, Georgia’s recording of Donald J. Trump calling on the secretary of state for 11,780 more votes in his favor after the 2020 election, last year’s investigation by the House Select Committee to Investigate the January 6^th Attack on the United States Capitol, and a stash of classified documents stored at Mar-a-Lago after Joe Biden was sworn in as the 46^th president?

Bragg’s indictment accuses Trump of “Falsifying Business Records in the First Degree in violation of Penal Law 175.10.”

“The defendant, in the County of New York and elsewhere, on or about February 14, 2017, with intent to defraud and intent to commit another crime and aid and conceal the commission thereof, made and caused a false entry in the business records of an enterprise, to wit, an invoice from Michael Cohen dated February 14, 2017, marked as a record of the Donald J. Trump Revocable Trust, and kept and maintained by the Trump Organization.”

Repeat – no rinse – 34 times.

Former attorney and Trump “fixer” Michael Cohen already has served time for perjury in relation to his falsifying records. Cohen paid adult film star Stormy Daniels $130,000 in “hush money” prior to the 2016 presidential election to silence her story of having sexual relations with Trump, who then allegedly reimbursed Cohen after winning the election, for “attorney’s fees.” Bragg’s case also draws in $150,000 paid to former Playboy model Karen McDougal via the National Enquirer by former publisher of the tabloid and Trump ally David Pecker in a “catch and kill” scheme to suppress salacious stories.

In a statement on the indictment, DA Bragg said he is charging the former president “for falsifying New York business records in order to conceal information and unlawful activity from American voters by and after the 2016 election. During the election, Trump and others employed a “catch and kill” scheme to identify, purchase and bury negative information about him and boost his electoral prospects. Trump then went to great lengths to hide his conduct, causing dozens of false entries in business records to conceal criminal activity, including attempts to violate state and federal election laws.”

But is a business records fraud case based on suppression of a political sex scandal enough?

Justice Juan Merchan has given Trump more than seven months to hone and repeat his 2024 presidential campaign, setting December 4 for his next court date, just two months before the Iowa GOP caucuses and the New Hampshire primary, according to The Hill. Trump added Merchan to his long list of grievances in his Tuesday night echo-chamber speech at Mar-a-Lago, attended by such acolytes as Reps. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-GA) and Matt Gaetz (R-FL) and MyPillow guy Mike Lindell.

On CNN, former Obama advisor David Axelrod likened Trump’s airing of grievances at Mar-a-Lago to “a guy on a barstool telling you about his bad divorce.”

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COMMENTS: editors@thehustings.news

SOTU is Tuesday

MONDAY 2/6/23

(Strong new jobs numbers certainly will be a key subject in President Biden's State of the Union address Tuesday. Scroll down to read about last month's job growth numbers and 3.4% unemployment rate.)

President Biden gives his State of the Union address Tuesday, February 7 at 9 p.m. Eastern time. Look for the president to tout last week’s surprise jobs numbers, and the big spending programs Republicans want to diminish in exchange for raising the debt ceiling.

Biden has been touring East Coast cities in recent weeks to promote bridge and tunnel rehab projects that will be funded by last year’s bipartisan infrastructure bill.

China’s Spy Balloon … certainly will come up. U.S. military shot it down at 2:39 Eastern time off the coast of South Carolina, immediately drawing the ire of China despite Beijing describing it as a “civilian” balloon that went off course. Meanwhile, Sen. Tim Scott (R-SC), already considered a potential presidential candidate for 2024 had criticized the White House for failing to drop the balloon from the sky the moment it entered U.S. airspace.

The Politics: Biden is expected to announce his run for a second term soon. Much of Tuesday’s SOTU will be about his agenda, and his campaign arguments.

White House Links: The Biden administration offers this handy link on how to watch the annual State of the Union address Tuesday: https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/blog/2023/02/04/how-to-watch-president-bidens-2023-state-of-the-union-address/

--TL

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...meanwhile...

SAT-SUN 2/4-5/23

New Early DNC Primary Schedule -- The Democratic National Committee has knocked the Iowa caucus out of the pole position for its 2024 early primary schedule, The Hill reports. DNC committee members moved South Carolina, the state that saved Joe Biden’s candidacy in 2020, to the lead for next year, at its winter meeting in Philadelphia.

The early schedule, per Ballotpedia:

February 3, 2024: South Carolina

February 6: New Hampshire and Nevada

February 13: Georgia

February 27: Michigan

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...meanwhile...

FRIDAY 2/3/23

Huge Job Gains in January – The U.S. economy added 517,000 jobs in January, the Labor Department reports Friday, and the unemployment rate slid slightly to 3.4%, lowest since 1969. Despite a wave of high-profile layoffs at tech companies, there was widespread job growth across many industries, the Labor Department’s Bureau of Labor Statistics says, though it highlights the usual suspects; Leisure and hospitality, professional and business services, and health care. There were also job gains in government, the BLS notes, reflecting workers returning from a strike.

•••

Spy Balloon Over Montana – Beijing is looking into reports of a Chinese spy balloon spotted over U.S. airspace, including three nuclear silo fields at Malstrom Air Force Base in Montana, NPR reports. Spokesperson Mao Ning said she has no information on whether U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken will visit China next week, as planned. Blinken would be the highest-ranking Biden administration official to visit the country.

The U.S. has not shot down the Chinese surveillance balloon, which is flying well above commercial airspace, for fears of the potential danger of falling debris.

The report comes a day after Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin signed an agreement in Manila to open four additional U.S. military bases in The Philippines in support of America’s allies in the region.

This Just In: Beijing has “expressed regret” for the Chinese surveillance balloon spotted flying over the U.S. (The New York Times) and says it’s for “civilian research” and drifted off-course. Meanwhile: Blinken has postponed his trip to China in light of the balloon, The Washington Post reports.

--Compiled and edited by Todd Lassa

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COMMENTS: editors@thehustings.news

263,000 Jobs Added in November

(FRI 12/2/22)

The U.S. economy added 263,000 jobs in November and maintained a 3.7% unemployment rate, the Labor Department reports, with biggest gains in the usual places; leisure and hospitality, health care and government. The gain is seen as evidence of economic “resilience” to massive tech-sector layoffs, Marketplace reports, citing a Dow Jones survey of economists who had expected the number to be about 200,000. The sunny numbers are tamping down worries that the U.S. economy is entering a recession.

Meanwhile: Chairman Jerome Powell signaled the Federal Reserve would begin to slow interest rate hikes beginning in December as a sign the Fed has seen some progress in slowing inflation.

•••

Iowa Caucuses to Lose Poll Position for 2024? – President Biden proposes to make South Carolina the first Democratic primary in 2024, (The Washington Post) followed by New Hampshire and Nevada, then Georgia and Michigan, thus finally knocking the Iowa caucuses out of poll – er, pole – position. Iowa’s caucus has been under fire for years for the state’s lack of racial/ethnic diversity, and a New Hampshire state law requires its primary to be first in the nation. Biden lost the Iowa caucus and New Hampshire and Nevada primaries in 2020 before an endorsement by Rep. Jim Clyburn (D-SC) helped him win that South Carolina’s primary.

--Compiled and edited by Todd Lassa

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COMMENTS: editors@thehustings.news

Inflation Eases Slightly to 7.7%

The Consumer Price Index dropped to 7.7% in October compared to an 8.2% annual rate in September, the Labor Department announced Thursday. The October rate was slightly better than the 7.9% level Marketplace reported economists had expected.

Used car and truck prices have eased to a CPI of 2%, while new vehicles are up 8.4% year-over-year. CPI for shelter is 6.9%, with food up 10.9% and food at home up 12.4%.

The month-over-month CPI rate was 0.4%.

--Todd Lassa

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COMMENTS: editors@thehustings.news

Trump Loses, Again

By Todd Lassa

As expected, on The Day After, the U.S. Senate is still up for grabs. With Democrat John Fetterman (pictured) beating Trump-backed Dr. Mehmet Oz and picking up the Pennsylvania Senate seat made open by the retirement of never-Trumper Republican John Toomey, Republicans must win at least two of three undecided races currently held by Democrats, among Nevada, Georgia and Arizona. The Georgia race between Democratic Sen. Raphael Warnock and Trump-backed challenger Herschel Walker is likely to go to a December 6 runoff.

Donald J. Trump’s Senate victories Tuesday came in Ohio, where J.D. Vance beat U.S. Democratic Rep. Tim Ryan for the seat of another retiring moderate Republican, Rob Portman, and in Wisconsin, where incumbent Sen. Ron Johnson held off Democratic challenger Mandela Barnes.

The House of Representatives is still up for grabs too, with the GOP having gained just two of the five seats needed to flip the majority. NPR’s Domenico Montenaro told Morning Edition Wednesday that Republicans are likely to end up with a seven- to nine-seat gain. The resulting slim majority could pose a problem for Republican Speaker-in-Waiting Kevin McCarthy, who bent a knee for ex-President Trump shortly after the Senate voted to acquit him after his impeachment for inciting the January 6 Capitol insurrection.

McCarthy’s own vague plans for impeaching President Biden may be tougher than he had expected.

One surprising race that could flip a House seat to the Democrats: In Colorado’s 3^rd Congressional District, pro-Trump Republican incumbent Lauren Boebert trails Democrat Adam Frisch in her re-election bid.

What the GOP had come to expect was this: Republicans lost 41 House seats in 2018 with Trump in the White House, and Democrats lost 63 seats in 2010 under President Barack Obama.

It seems the same problem polling organizations had tracking Donald J. Trump v. Hillary Clinton in 2016 afflicted those organizations in 2022. Perhaps some of the intended voters who counted inflation and the economy as top concerns did not blame Biden for high inflation and the wobbly economy.

Clearest indication that Trump is done as head of the GOP is Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis’ trouncing of Democratic candidate Charlie Crist for re-election, by nearly 20 percentage points, a day after the ex-prez warned “DeSanctimonious” he could “hurt himself very badly” if he launches a run for the 2024 Republican presidential nomination. Florida is now a deep-red state, with DeSantis having flipped formerly blue Miami-Dade Tuesday. Republican Sen. Marco Rubio also easily won re-election Tuesday.

Trump apparently still plans to make his “big announcement” next Tuesday to run again in 2024.

We have seen the GOP ready to “move on” before, from the time he lost the 2020 presidential election to the the January 6^thCapitol insurrection and last August 8 when the FBI searched Mar-a-Lago for confidential government files. Is it for real this time? An article on FoxNews.com Wednesday contained the whole story in the headline, “Conservatives point finger at Trump after GOP’s underwhelming election results: ‘He’s never been weaker.’ Many conservatives say Tuesday’s election results show it’s ‘time to move on’ from Trump.”

After two years enduring Trump’s Big Lie, we may have taken a step back toward democracy.

(WED 11/9/22)

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COMMENTS: editors@thehustings.news

261K Jobs Added Last Month

The U.S. economy added 261,000 jobs in October, signaling a “softening” of the economy as the Federal Reserve continues to hike interest rates in order to ease inflation. The number is a bit higher than the low-200s number some economists had predicted.

The jobs number was low enough to tick up the unemployment rate, to 3.7% from a 3.5% rate in August and September. But any unemployment number under 4% is still almost unnaturally low. The combo of a better-than-expected jobs increase and two-tenths uptick in the unemployment rate also is seen as a sign the Fed’s aggressive interest rate increases could result in a “soft landing” instead of a 2023 recession.

The Labor Department reported job gains in health care, professional and technical services, and manufacturing.

•••

Trump Marks Calendar for November 14 – Donald J. Trump’s “inner circle” are targeting November 14 as the date the former president will announce his run for the 2024 GOP presidential election, Jonathan Swan scoops in Axios Friday. The potential date comes after the midterms and before Florida’s Republican Gov. Ron DeSantis would announce his own candidacy and challenge Trump. Swan tells MSNBC’s Morning Joe that Trump’s team will use the date to schedule a series of rallies and appearances and take credit for the election victories by the ex-president’s endorsees.

The date remains tentative, Swan emphasizes, as it is very likely control of the Senate will have not been determined six days after the midterms. If neither incumbent Democrat Raphael Warnock nor Trump-endorsed Republican challenger Herschel Walker reach at least 50% of the vote in Georgia’s Senate race, for example, they will face each other again in a runoff scheduled for December 6.

•••

Confirming the Obvious – United Nations inspectors have found no evidence of “dirty bombs” being developed by Ukraine, NPR reports. The UN inspection was made under dubious circumstances, as it was a claim made by Russia to divert attention from its own atrocities over its invasion of the country. With the UN report, only Vladimir Putin and his allies will continue to push the false dirty bomb story.

Meanwhile: Ukrainian officials have signaled an assault to take back its Kherson region “could be imminent,” The Washington Post reports, which could become the “best test” of whether Russia will hold any significant piece of territory after its February invasion.

--Compiled and edited by Todd Lassa

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'Democracy on the Ballot' (THU 11/3/22)

President Biden called on voters to consider the future of our republic when casting ballots in the midterm elections, in an address Wednesday evening from Washington’s Union Station. His speech began with a detailed description of the attack the prior Friday on Paul Pelosi, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s husband. Biden blamed former President Trump for ongoing threat to American democracy in a speech that will be seen as political, especially by Fox News and media outlets to its right.

“Democracy is on the ballot” in the November 8 midterms, Biden said. “So today I appeal to all Americans regardless of party to meet this moment of national and generational importance. We must vote knowing what’s at stake and not just the policy of the moment.”

Recent polls have shown that while the future of American democracy is an underlying issue in the midterms it is not as important to most voters as inflation and the economy. The fear here is that the current 8.5% inflation rate will help propel election deniers into office and potentially give them power over the way future elections are conducted.

•••

Fed Rates Up Another ¾ Point – As every professional- and armchair economist had predicted, the Federal Reserve raised its “key policy rate” by 75 basis points for the fourth meeting in a row, indicating it is not done with its attempt to tighten the economy and lower inflation, the investment site Seeking Alpha reports. That brings it to the current rate of 3.75%, says Marketplace, which notes that Chairman Jerome Powell said the Fed may slow increases “very soon,” as early as its next meeting, or the meeting after that.

Which does not amount to the much-expected “Fed pivot,” says Marketplace’s Kai Risdahl. The next Fed board meeting is December 13-14, Risdahl says, and there will be a “whole lot” of economic data out between now and then.

Compiled and edited by Todd Lassa

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COMMENTS: editors@thehustings.news

…meanwhile…

(CHART: Bureau of Labor Statistics)

(FRI 8/5/22)

528,000 more jobs in July…That’s about twice the number economists had predicted for last month, NPR reports. The Labor Department’s Bureau of Labor Statistics says the unemployment rate dropped by 0.1 points, to 3.5% and marks the return of the unemployment rate and nonfarm employment numbers to pre-pandemic, February 2020 levels. Widespread employment gains came in leisure and hospitality, and professional and business services, and health care, BLS reports.

•••

China censures Pelosi … The Chinese government has censured House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) and her direct family members, over her visit to Taiwan as part of a five-nation diplomatic trip to Asia this week, NPR reports. U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken has repeatedly noted Pelosi and her delegation have a right to visit the breakaway island nation and accused Beijing of overreacting, and Pelosi told a Tokyo press conference, “They will not isolate Taiwan by preventing us from traveling there.”

•••

Sinema signs on … The Senate will begin procedural votes today on the $739-billion Schumer-Manchin Inflation Reduction Act, with a Vote-o-Rama of unlimited amendments expected by the middle of next week. Sen. Krysten Sinema’s (D-AZ) crucial vote on the filibuster-proof budget reconciliation (subject to Senate parliamentarian approval) was secured late Thursday when Democratic leaders agreed to tweak the 15% minimum corporate tax by removing accelerated depreciation, according to Politico, and swap out killing the carried interest tax provision in favor of taxing large corporate buybacks, according to our fellow news aggregates at The Recount.

Upshot: Sitting in the Catbird seat since Sen. Joe Manchin (D-WV) signed on with Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) last week, Sinema could have made these negotiations much worse for her fellow Senate Democrats. But we find the specificity of her demands, particularly restoration of the carried interest tax provision for wealthy hedge fund managers, curious at the very least.

--Todd Lassa

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COMMENTS: editors@thehustings.news