(UPDATE: Wagner Group leader Yevgeny Prigozhin, above, released an 11-minute video Monday in which he said last weekend's seizure of two major Russian region capitals amounted to protest, not an attempted military coup, NPR reports.)

Over the weekend, The Wagner Group’s mercenary leader, Yevgeny Prigozhin, took control of Russia’s Southern Military District HQ in Rostov-on-Don, and another major regional capital with troops and tanks on their streets. He demanded Vladimir Putin sack his military leadership. 

Prigozhin sent 25,000 soldiers from his private military company (also until now known as “Putin’s private army”) charging toward the Kremlin, 600 miles to the north of Rostov-on-Don, but they stopped about 200 kilometers, or roughly 125 miles short of Moscow with no reported injuries, according to The New York Times. Footage surfaced of Prigozhin in control of the Southern Military District HQ, where he apparently had Russia’s defense minister, Sergei Shoigu, and top military officer, Gen. Valery Gerasimov surrounded by Wagner guards, “Perhaps the most shocking scene of the day,” said the NYT.

However … Prigozhin backed off his insurrection before Wagner troops got any closer to Moscow and was then let off without arrest by Russian officials. Kremlin spokesman Dmitri Peskov told reporters that Prigozhin instead will exile to Belarus in a deal brokered with that country’s leader and close Putin ally, Aleksandr Lukashenko. 

How it started: ICYMI, Prigozhin was a 30-year ally of Putin, first as a caterer, then as head of an elite and brutal army of mercenaries. Wagner – named after the German composer – was formed during Russia’s annexation of Crimea in 2014, and it joined Russian forces after it became clear to Putin his February 2022 invasion wasn’t going as planned. Prigozhin recruited soldiers from Russian prisons and pushed them into the bloody battle over Bakmut and then feuded with Russian Gens. Shoigu and Gerasimov. 

Last Friday night, Prigozhin claimed Russian forces attacked Wagner troops as they slept in their camps. Russia denies this, says the NYT, and the claim has not independently been verified. On Saturday, Prigozhin led a force of 25,000 from Ukraine to Rostov-on-Don, Russia, which he took over apparently with no resistance. Saturday morning, Putin delivered a five-minute address to his nation in which he described Prigozhin (without naming him) as a traitor and vowed to crush the uprising. 

“This is a stab in the back of our country and our people,” Putin said, comparing the insurrection to events leading up to the 1917 Russian Revolution and the end of the Russian Empire he so much longs to restore (per The Kyiv Independent).

Independent Russian news outlet Meduza quoted unnamed sources reporting Prigozhin initially attempted to get in touch with the Russian presidential administration midday Saturday as his fighters advanced toward Moscow (per The Kyiv Independent, again). 

Too late?: Tatiana Stanovaya, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center, told the NYT Putin underestimated the threat from Prigozhin and Wagner Group. “He thought he was totally dependent and loyal.”

What’s next?: Prigozhin is exiled to Belarus, but Wagner troops are not. But even if Putin can somehow persuade many of those 25,000 returned Wagner soldiers to turn around and head back into Ukraine, progress on Russia’s invasion should be further compromised, especially with Ukraine’s counter-offensive already underway.

Can Putin hold on to power? The only certainty is he will double-down on repression of his own people.

Epilogue: Neither Putin nor Prigozhin have been seen in public since Saturday, NPR reports.

UPDATE: Monday, Putin made his first video appearance since his condemnation of Saturday's insurrection, BBC reports, though it is not clear when or where the video was made.

•••

SCOTUS this week – Supreme Court decisions are due before the end of June on four important cases (per U.S. News & World Report):

Affirmative action

President Biden’s $10,000 student loan forgiveness program

Religious rights

Voting and the “independent state legislature” theory.

•••

Up on the Hill – The House and the Senate are off through July 9.

--Compiled and edited by Todd Lassa

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COMMENTS: editors@thehustings.news

THURSDAY-FRIDAY 3/30-31/23

A Manhattan Grand Jury voted to indict the former president, Donald J. Trump in a case focusing on hush-money payments to adult film star Stormy Daniels, The New York TimesThe Washington Post and Associated Press report. No details are yet known, as the indictment remains sealed, though AP reports that Trump is expected to surrender to authorities next week, according to an unnamed source. 

The indictment comes after Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg told New York court officials that the grand jury would not be hearing further evidence for weeks, and other matters were on the panel’s agenda before the Passover holiday (WaPo).

Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-FL) was the first Congress member to comment WaPo says, tweeting “President Donald Trump always fought for us. He puts the American people above corrupt interests. For that reason alone, the powerful will never stop coming for him.”

Or… While House Republicans, with their wafer-thin majority will continue to echo Trump’s “Witch Hunt” response it remains to be seen whether Senate Republicans are ready to move on from 45 and repudiate supporters’ claims.

Perp Walk: Meanwhile, Trump already has said he wants to be cuffed (and martyred) for his supporters.

Bigger Indictments to Come?: On the other side, Democrats and never-Trump Republicans expect Fulton County, Georgia’s investigation into his efforts to alter the Electoral College and investigations in Washington, D.C., over his alleged involvement in the January 6th Capitol insurrection and for Mar-a-Lagogate, his handling of classified documents at his Florida home.

•••

Russia Holds WSJ Reporter – Wall Street Journal reporter Evan Gershkovich has been detained in Moscow on charges of “espionage” in the first such case involving a Western journalist since the Cold War. Gershkovich, 31, is a Russian speaker whose parents emigrated to the U.S. from the Soviet Union. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said the U.S. seeks immediate consular access to Gershkovich so that it can provide consular support, The Wall Street Journal reports. 

--Compiled and edited by Todd Lassa

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...meanwhile...

WED 3/29/23

Pence Must Testify, But – U.S. District Judge James Boasberg has ruled that former Vice President Mike Pence must testify before prosecutors in the investigation of former President Trump’s efforts to overturn 2020 election results. While the sealed decision, reported by several news outlets including The Washington Post rejects executive privilege for Pence, the judge upholds Pence’s claim of legislative privilege, which means he will not be compelled to give testimony over his role in the formal count of Electoral College votes January 6, 2021, as president of the Senate.

•••

Blame Bank Execs, Not Regulators – Regulators warned Silicon Valley Bank of interest rate and liquidity risks before the bank failed in March, Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Michael S. Barr told the Senate Banking Committee Tuesday, Roll Call reports, where Republicans and at least one Democrat sought to blame the regulators. 

Barr told the Senate committee that it is not regulators’ job, but of the bank’s board and senior management to fix such problems, according to Marketplace.

Wednesday: The House Financial Services Committee holds its first hearing on SVB and Signature Bank failures.

--TL

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MON-TUE 3/27-28/23

UPDATE II: Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu appeared on Israeli television Monday night to say he is postponing the vote on judicial reform by one month (NPR).

UPDATE: Sources tell Israel's Haaretz that Netanyahu is expected to freeze judicial overhaul following protests over Defense Minister Gallant's firing.

Another Democracy in Peril? – Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s (above) right-wing coalition government is debating whether to delay judicial changes that have sparked civil protest in Israel, The New York Times reports. Worker stoppages have spread throughout the country over the weekend, with the national trade union calling for a strike, which has blocked flights from Ben Gurion airport. Netanyahu last weekend sacked Defense Minister Yoav Gallant, who objected to the government’s attempt to give itself greater control over Supreme Court judge selection and to limit the court’s authority over Israel’s parliament. 

Netanyahu, once a “staunch defender” of a strong, independent Supreme Court, according to the NYT, is standing trial on corruption charges. Netanyahu’s Likud party-based coalition government risks collapse if he delays judicial control.

•••

In Waco, Texas – From the kick-off rally to former President Trump’s 2024 presidential campaign, as covered by Politico:

”Man, he’s dropping like a rock. … They keep saying ‘DeSanctus’ could do well with farmers. I don’t think so. Based on polls, he’s not doing well with anything.”

The “biggest threat” to the U.S. isn’t China or Russia, but “high level politicians that work in the U.S. government like McConnell, Pelosi, Schumer and Biden.”

Despite Donald J. Trump’s concentration on “grievance” politics, he did make a few campaign promises, Politico reports:

Mandatory term limits.

Keeping “men out of women’s sports.”

Ending “the invasion of the Southern border.”

End the war in Ukraine and prevent “World War III.”

Meanwhlie: The Trump-Fox News relationship, bumpy to say the least over the last year or so, takes a “warmer turn” when Sean Hannity interviews the former prez Monday night, The Hill says.

•••

This Week – The Senate and House are in session Monday through Thursday. The Senate only is in session Friday. Spring break begins for both chambers next week.

--Compiled and edited by Todd Lassa

JOIN THE CITIZEN PUNDITS’ BRIGADE: email your COMMENTS to editors@thehustings.news

WNBA star Brittney Griner, detained August 4 at Moscow’s Sheremetyevo Airport and later charged with possession of cannabis, has been freed from a Russian penal colony in an apparent prisoner swap with the U.S., and is on her way home, NPR reports. 

“Moments ago I spoke to Brittney Griner,” President Biden announced in a tweet (above, with Griner’s wife, Cherelle Griner and with Vice President Harris in the left photo). “She is safe. She is on a plane. She is on her way home.”

Griner is being swapped in a one-on-one for “notorious arms dealer” Viktor Bout, who has been held in a U.S. prison for 12 years, the BBC reports. The U.S State Department continues to negotiate for release of Paul Whelan, businessman and former Marine who has been held in a Russian prison for nearly four years. 

•••

German Government Contains its January 6 – German authorities arrested 25 people, including neo-Nazis and monarchists, suspected of planning to overthrow the government by storming the Bundestag in Berlin, Wednesday morning. Allegedly fueled by QAnon conspiracy theories, among those detained include “Prince Heinrich XIII”, a descendant of the German nobility that was abolished by the Weimar Republic after World War I, and active soldier and former members of police and elite special forces, The New York Times reports. A group known as the Reich Citizens Movement has pushed for reinstatement of the German monarchy for years. 

NPR reporter Esme Nicholson describe on All Things Considered those detained as “not angry young men with shaved heads and black boots” but as doctors, lawyers and teachers – reminiscent of many of the 900+ arrested for the January 6 Capitol insurrection, including Yale Law School graduate and Oath Keepers leader Stewart Rhodes III, who was found guilty of seditious conspiracy last month. 

Organizers of the movement apparently contacted Vladimir Putin ahead of the attempted coup, but there is no indication the Russian president responded.

Meanwhile, in SCOTUS: The U.S. Supreme Court Wednesday heard arguments over the “Independent State Legislature” theory, a controversial neo-republican (small “r” intended doctrine that would give individual state legislatures the right to set “all manner of election rules and laws without review by state courts,” according to NPR’s Nina Totenburg.

The case, brought to the highest court by North Carolina Republican legislators seeks to strike down a North Carolina ruling that the legislators violated the state’s Constitution with an “extreme partisan gerrymander” after the 2020 U.S. Census.

At its extreme, Totenburg said on All Things Considered, a ruling in favor of the theory and against the South Carolina Supreme Court could “eliminate not just state judicial powers over elections, but governors’ vetos. … and it might allow state legislators to certify electors who were not approved by the voters.” 

Sound Familiar?: That part about allowing state legislators to certify electors is what ex-President Trump attempted after his 2020 election loss. 

Court CountSCOTUS is split into three camps, according to Totenburg: Justices Clarence Thomas, Thomas Alito and Neil Gorsuch, who favor the Independent State Legislature Theory; Justices Sonya Sotomayor, Elena Kagan and Ketanji Brown Jackson, who oppose it; and Chief Justice John Roberts and Justices Brett Kavenaugh and Amy Coney Barrett, who are somewhere in the middle. 

--Compiled and edited by Todd Lassa

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COMMENTS: editors@thehustings.news