The Most Liberal County in Conservative States

By Andrea Vale/Stacker

Whether a state is considered red or blue is only one side of the story. In many states, despite majority leanings, there are neighborhoods, towns, or even entire counties that hold steadfast against their neighbors and vote for the party that holds an opposing ideology to a majority of the state's residents.

Whether or not this means those enclaves will see the results they want depends on their state's unique circumstances. In many states, liberal areas are still subject to hyper-conservative policies designed to apply to the state at large. In Florida, for instance, Gov. Ron DeSantis has restricted discussions of gender identity in schools and passed one of the nation's narrowest abortion restrictions—both of which affect residents of the comparatively progressive Miami and Fort Lauderdale. In Ohio, preemption laws bar cities from regulating certain state-mandated issues, meaning that liberal pockets in Columbus and Toledo are still beholden to the conservative-majority gun laws and environmental policies.

Stacker compiled voter turnout data from The New York Times and statewide political ideology data from Gallup to rank states by their share of self-identifying conservatives. Ties were broken by the corresponding percentage of liberals, as able. Voter data was then used to identify counties that voted against this statewide average ideology.

Some "battleground" states that split relatively evenly between conservative and liberal didn't make either list. Detailed county voter turnout data was unavailable for Virginia, Alaska, Louisiana, and Alabama. For Washington D.C., ideological insights came from a study by the Pew Research Institute, rather than the Gallup data.

When looking at why an island of liberalism may exist in an otherwise heavily conservative state, there are typically a few reliable tells. Many of the counties included in this list are home to colleges or universities; this means relatively young and well-educated populations, which almost always equates to liberal leanings. The same is true for dense urban centers, which are usually home to higher concentrations of communities of color and foreign-born migrants—groups that also lean blue.

Native American communities often vote Democrat and are also often isolated within Republican-majority states; unsurprisingly, this is the case for more than a few counties included here. Even ski towns tend to transform a county into a stronghold for liberalism in otherwise conservative areas by attracting mostly upper-class, well-educated transplants as residents.

Read on to discover where liberal strongholds exist in otherwise staunchly conservative states, and what accounts for the unexpected shift from red to blue. Travis County, Texas

Canva

#19. Texas: 20% liberal, 38% conservative (tie)

- Most liberal county: Travis County
--- Democratic votes in 2020: 435,860 (71.4%)
--- Total votes cast: 610,349

Travis County—where the state capital of Austin can be found—represents a larger shift in many Texas counties towards the left, due in large part to a progressively younger population and incoming migration. As of 2022, just 10% of Travis County's population was 65 and older, and a full third of residents identified as Hispanic or Latino. Taos County, New Mexico

Canva

#19. New Mexico: 20% liberal, 38% conservative (tie)

- Most liberal county: Taos County
--- Democratic votes in 2020: 13,121 (76.4%)
--- Total votes cast: 17,181

Taos County comprises several Hispanic and Native American communities, resulting in a staunch Democratic leaning. Additionally, the county is home to the University of New Mexico-Taos, providing a concentration of young, well-educated voters that typically results in liberal tendencies. Durham County, North Carolina

Sean Pavone // Shutterstock

#18. North Carolina: 21% liberal, 39% conservative

- Most liberal county: Durham County
--- Democratic votes in 2020: 144,364 (80.4%)
--- Total votes cast: 179,594

Durham County's more liberal leaning is possibly due to its large concentration of urban centers and universities. The county holds the cities of Durham and parts of Raleigh, as well as most of the state's most well-known institutes of higher education, including Duke University, North Carolina Central University, and Durham Technical Community College. Jefferson County, Kentucky

f11photo // Shutterstock

#17. Kentucky: 20% liberal, 39% conservative

- Most liberal county: Jefferson County
--- Democratic votes in 2020: 228,272 (59.1%)
--- Total votes cast: 386,061

Jefferson County is the most heavily populated county in the state—it is home to more than 780,000 residents, while the next-largest, Fayette County, has less than half that count—and includes Louisville, the state's largest city. Besides a dense population, the county is also home to a heavy concentration of universities and colleges, with one college per 11 square miles. Clayton County, Georgia

Josemejia // Shutterstock

#16. Georgia: 19% liberal, 39% conservative

- Most liberal county: Clayton County
--- Democratic votes in 2020: 95,476 (85.0%)
--- Total votes cast: 112,344

Clayton County is a particularly diverse area, with 73.4% of its population self-identifying as Black and 13.5% as Hispanic or Latino. This accounts for its uniquely Democratic leaning; though previously a swing county, the increasing number of Black Americans and other people of color relocating to the county has shifted it to staunchly liberal. Douglas County, Kansas

Canva

#13. Kansas: 18% liberal, 39% conservative (tie)

- Most liberal county: Douglas County
--- Democratic votes in 2020: 40,785 (68.6%)
--- Total votes cast: 59,495

Douglas County's blue dominance is owed in large part to encompassing the city of Lawrence, widely perceived as a liberal college town. Lawrence is home to the University of Kansas, which self-describes as "the state's flagship institution." Douglas County is particularly young and upper-middle-class: just 13.5% of the population is over 65, and the median household income is $62,594. Glacier County, Montana

Dirk Wierenga // Shutterstock

#13. Montana: 18% liberal, 39% conservative (tie)

- Most liberal county: Glacier County
--- Democratic votes in 2020: 3,610 (64.3%)
--- Total votes cast: 5,617

Home to the Blackfeet Indian Reservation, Glacier County residents are majority Native American, with 64.6% of the county's 13,681 residents self-identifying as American Indian or Alaska Native. Native American communities tend to lean more liberal than conservative, making this county a stronghold for Democrats, even while surrounded by red-voting counties. Sioux County, North Dakota

Joseph Sohm // Shutterstock

#13. North Dakota: 18% liberal, 39% conservative (tie)

- Most liberal county: Sioux County
--- Democratic votes in 2020: 804 (67.8%)
--- Total votes cast: 1,186

Like Glacier County in Montana, Sioux County's large proportion of Native American residents accounts for its liberal skew. Though the tiny area only has 3,711 residents, 83.1% of them are American Indian or Alaska Native. Marion County, Indiana

Sean Pavone // Shutterstock

#12. Indiana: 17% liberal, 39% conservative

- Most liberal county: Marion County
--- Democratic votes in 2020: 247,772 (63.6%)
--- Total votes cast: 389,618

Marion County is home to the state's most populous city, Indianapolis, as well as several universities. This makes the region comparatively urban and young when measured against surrounding central Indiana counties. Additionally, the county is relatively more diverse than nearby majority-white areas, with a 29.6% Black population, compared to 10.2% in the state in general. Blaine County, Idaho

Canva

#11. Idaho: 17% liberal, 40% conservative

- Most liberal county: Blaine County
--- Democratic votes in 2020: 8,919 (67.1%)
--- Total votes cast: 13,289

Though not home to the state's most populated cities, Blaine County does have one notable locale that is thought to largely account for its reputation as a Democratic stronghold: the Sun Valley ski resort. The county is subsequently home to a large number of out-of-staters who choose to live part-time or retire there, and who are usually upper-class, well-educated, and white. 94.4% of Blaine County residents are white, and the median household income is $71,749. St. Louis city, Missouri

Sean Pavone // Shutterstock

#10. Missouri: 20% liberal, 41% conservative

- Most liberal county: St. Louis
--- Democratic votes in 2020: 110,089 (82.3%)
--- Total votes cast: 133,793

Home to nearly 1 million residents, St. Louis County (not to be confused with the independent city of St. Louis, which belongs to no county) is diverse, well-educated, urban, and affluent compared to other parts of the state. Only 67.4% of the population is white alone; 25.1% is Black. The median household income is $72,562. Additionally, the county is home to a large concentration of institutes of higher education, including Washington University in St. Louis, Saint Louis University, and Maryville University. Allendale County, South Carolina

Bennekom // Shutterstock

#9. South Carolina: 16% liberal, 41% conservative

- Most liberal county: Allendale County
--- Democratic votes in 2020: 2,714 (75.7%)
--- Total votes cast: 3,585

Though Allendale is the smallest and among the most poor and rural counties in the state, it is also one of the most politically active. Though these superlatives would usually tilt a county towards conservatism, Allendale County is also majority (72.7%) Black, and the region's lack of dependable health care, employment, and transportation has led to widespread support for Democratic initiatives like Medicaid. Pulaski County, Arkansas

Canva

#7. Arkansas: 15% liberal, 41% conservative (tie)

- Most liberal county: Pulaski County
--- Democratic votes in 2020: 101,947 (60.0%)
--- Total votes cast: 169,956

The most populous county in the state and home to the capital city of Little Rock, Pulaski County is relatively diverse and young. Only 50% of residents are white, while 37% are Black; the median age is around 38. Summit County, Utah

Canva

#7. Utah: 15% liberal, 41% conservative (tie)

- Most liberal county: Summit County
--- Democratic votes in 2020: 15,244 (58.0%)
--- Total votes cast: 26,289

Summit County is the most liberal area in the state thanks mostly to the urban center of Park City, which makes up 8,576 of the county's 43,036 residents. While Park City is "staunchly liberal," other areas within the county itself lean more conservative. In the ski resort town of Park City, however, upper-class, well-educated residents have huge sway. With an average income of $91,470, Park City is the country's second-wealthiest small urban area. Cleveland County, Oklahoma

Canva

#6. Oklahoma: 18% liberal, 43% conservative

- Most liberal county: Cleveland County
--- Democratic votes in 2020: 49,827 (41.6%)
--- Total votes cast: 119,778

Cleveland County's urban and educational hubs account for its ranking as the bluest county in the state. The county is part of the state's largest metro area (Oklahoma City) and the state's largest university (the University of Oklahoma). Additionally, the county is slightly more educated (34.98% of adults have bachelor's degrees or higher) and younger (the median age is 37.3) than surrounding areas, which both correlate with higher populations of liberals. Shelby County, Tennessee

Canva

#5. Tennessee: 17% liberal, 43% conservative

- Most liberal county: Shelby County
--- Democratic votes in 2020: 246,105 (64.4%)
--- Total votes cast: 382,055

Shelby County has three standout qualities that place it squarely in the blue. First, it is home to a large urban center (Memphis, with a population of over 600,000). Secondly, its population is majority Black, accounting for 54.6% of residents. Finally, it contains a large concentration of colleges and universities, including the University of Memphis, Rhodes College, Remington College, and the University of Tennessee Health Sciences Center. Oglala Lakota County, South Dakota

Canva

#4. South Dakota: 13% liberal, 44% conservative

- Most liberal county: Oglala Lakota County
--- Democratic votes in 2020: 2,829 (88.4%)
--- Total votes cast: 3,200

Like other areas that are predominantly populated by Native Americans, Oglala Lakota is a Democratic stronghold in a Republican state (much like Glacier County, Montana, and Sioux County, North Dakota). 92.3% of the population is American Indian or Native Alaskan, which is unsurprising considering the entire county sits within the Pine Ridge Indian Reservation. Monongalia County, West Virginia

Canva

#3. West Virginia: 17% liberal, 45% conservative

- Most liberal county: Monongalia County
--- Democratic votes in 2020: 20,282 (48.2%)
--- Total votes cast: 42,072

Monongalia County is home to Morgantown, a city that is growing starkly white-collar and well-educated compared to other areas of the state—and consequently, starkly liberal as well. Like many other college towns, Morgantown—home to West Virginia University—is generally younger, more affluent, and more Democratic than more rural areas. Teton County, Wyoming

C Rolan // Shutterstock

#2. Wyoming: 18% liberal, 46% conservative

- Most liberal county: Teton County
--- Democratic votes in 2020: 9,848 (67.1%)
--- Total votes cast: 14,677

While Wyoming writ large is rural and agricultural, Teton County—which contains the Jackson ski resort—is a "playground for the ultra-rich," largely accounting for its liberal leanings. Like Park City, Utah, and Blaine County, Idaho, ski towns come with wealth, and with wealth comes Democrats: the median income in Teton County is a whopping $94,498. Jefferson County, Mississippi

Canva

#1. Mississippi: 12% liberal, 50% conservative

- Most liberal county: Jefferson County
--- Democratic votes in 2020: 3,327 (86.1%)
--- Total votes cast: 3,863

Though increasingly sparsely populated and mired in poverty, Jefferson County is also diverse. 84.9% of the population is Black, accounting for the region's liberal character.

Data reporting by Sam Larson. Story editing by Brian Budzynski. Copy editing by Tim Bruns.

_____
COMMENT below or email editors@thehustings.news

Lettuce Wins

(THU 10/20/22)

British PM Resigns – Prime Minister Liz Truss has announced her resignation just 44 days into her term, the BBC reports. Her conservative party is to choose a successor by Friday, October 28. London’s Daily Star claimed victory for its 60-pence head of lettuce for outlasting the PM with the shortest term in British history.

--TL

_____________________________________

Biden Ups Midterm Ante on Abortion Issue (WED 10/19/22)

Codifying Roe v. Wade – President Biden announces Tuesday the first and foremost issue on his agenda for the second half of his term, if Democrats manage to hold majorities in both the House and Senate, will be a bill codifying Roe v. Wade, The Hill reports. Yes, that is a big “if”. With three weeks to go to the November 8 midterm elections, most polls show that intended voters rank inflation and the economy as their top issue, ahead of abortion rights.

The Hill helpfully notes that if Democrats do hold off the GOP in the House and Senate, such legislation could appear on or near the 50^th anniversary of the Supreme Court’s Roe decision, January 23, 1973 which was overturned last summer by SCOTUS’ ruling on Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization.

Upshot: The White House’s gambit will only work for Democrats if it boosts turnout by pro-abortion rights voters in the midterms, rather than counts on changing minds among those who will vote by November 8 anyway.

•••

Record Early Voting in Georgia – The state’s first day of in-person early voting broke the midterm election record by Tuesday morning, The Atlanta Journal-Constitution reports, with nearly 123,000 voters turning out. If Georgia is any indication of the turnout nationally, its likely polls on individual races across the states will prove to be way off the mark.

Meanwhile: Numerous news reports indicate independent and moderate Republican and Democratic voters in Georgia are willing to split their tickets. That would be good news for both incumbent Republican Gov. Brian Kemp, whose Democratic challenger is Stacey Abrams, and incumbent Democratic Sen. Raphael Warnock, who is in a statistical tie in recent polls with Trumpian Republican challenger Herschel Walker.

--Edited by Todd Lassa

_____________________________________

Upshot: The White House’s gambit will only work for Democrats if it boosts turnout by pro-abortion rights voters in the midterms, rather than counting on changing minds among those who will vote by November 8 anyway.

•••

--Edited by Todd Lassa

Latest on the Midterms (MON 10/17/22)

Hill v. Point: A news alert Monday evening, October 17, from The Hill says Republicans are “growing more optimistic” that they will grab majorities in both the House of Representatives and the Senate after the November 8 midterms. Pollsters say the GOP is gaining momentum from the “stubborn” inflation rate being blamed on President Biden and the Democrats.

That alert was followed by The Point! by CNN’s Chris Cilizza who writes of a surprising poll by J. Ann Selzer for the Des Moines Register, placing Democrat Mike Franken in a statistical tie with Republican Sen. Chuck Grassley, who seeks his eighth term at age 89. Grassley, who hasn’t been seriously challenged in several terms, has 46% in Selzer’s poll to Franken’s 43%.

Upshot: Selzer’s polls have been the most reliable since polls in general went south with the 2016 presidential race, Cilizza notes, and FiveThirtyEight rates her with a grade of A+.

•••

Early and mail-in voting are underway in many states as the November 8 midterm elections loom. While there is much new attention this year being paid on down-ballot races where elected state and county officials could potentially determine how future elections are conducted and counted, U.S. Senate races are in the national media spotlight.

Specifically, three key Senate races are considered most likely to determine whether Democrats maintain power in the upper chamber or whether the GOP regains its control in January.

Ohio: While Republican challenger, venture capitalist and Hillbilly Elegy author J.D. Vance holds the double-edge sword of Donald J. Trump’s endorsement, Democratic candidate Rep. Tim Ryan says he disagrees with his party’s leader, President Biden, on such issues as immigration policy. Vance and Ryan were scheduled to face off in their second of two debates Tuesday, October 18. The two candidates are in a statistical tie according to FiveThirtyEight, with Ryan polling an average of 45.1% to Vance’s 44.8% as of October 14.

Georgia: Republican challenger, football hero and Trump endorsee Herschel Walker has lost some support in the week or so since the Daily Beast reported a woman claims he paid for her abortion. Incumbent Democrat Raphael Warnock leads Walker 48% to 44.2% according to FiveThirtyEight averaging. Warnock would need at least 50% of the vote to win outright, however, to avoid a runoff likely against Walker. A third-party candidate, Libertarian Chase Oliver, is currently polling about 4% according to Fox News. Much of his November 8 votes would likely go to Walker in a runoff.

Nevada: Republican challenger Adam Laxalt leads incumbent Democrat Catherine Cortez Masto 45.1% to 44.5%, another statistical tie, according to FiveThirtyEight averaging. This despite 14 members of the Laxalt family, long politically prominent Republicans in Nevada, endorsed Cortez Masto over Laxalt’s embrace of his Trump-MAGA endorsement. Cortez Masto is losing Hispanic support over inflation and the economy, Newsweek reports, citing a USA Today/Suffolk University poll.

Meanwhile, in Pennsylvania: Lt. Gov. John Fetterman (D), endorsed by The Philadelphia Inquirer October 17, leads erstwhile Jersey guy and MAGA Republican Mehmet Oz by 48% to 42.4%, according to FiveThirtyEight, which means the GOP would have to win at least one challenge against a Democratic incumbent just to retain the 50-50 Senate split, a tie broken by Vice President Kamala Harris. This race is for a replacement to retiring Sen. Pat Toomey, a not-at-all-Trumper Republican.

--Compiled by Todd Lassa

_____
COMMENTS: editors@thehustings.news

It’s Trump’s GOP, but is it Still the Conservative Party?

By Todd Lassa

The Lincoln Project and its followers have been agonizing over the future of the heart and mind of the GOP since the Democrats first had comparative moderates running for the nomination such as Amy Klobuchar, Pete Buttigieg and of course, Joe Biden.

What if Republican stalwarts, they wondered, helped propel one of those people to victory?

After such a victory, what happens to the Republican Party? Does it revert to its Mitt Romney-esque roots, thus rejecting such erstwhile party leaders as Sens. Mitch McConnell and Lindsay Graham, who quickly turned from profoundly anti-Trump to enthusiastic supporter-enablers by November 2016? Or does it continue to be the Trump Party?

Anti-Trump Republicans now find themselves at a fork in the road with especially sharp tines. When (or if) President Trump vacates the White House, the Grand Old Party could revert to its pre-populist ways and welcome back the “never-Trumpers.” Or the party, such as it is, could shun those who have been associated with people from John McCain to George W. Bush.

The struggle has been playing itself out among Republicans inside its Washington power structure, where potential candidates for its 2024 presidential nomination have been lining up.

That struggle hinges at first on whether Donald J. Trump himself chooses to run again in ’24 (the 22^nd Amendment limits presidencies to two terms, but they do not need to be consecutive), or whether his son, Donald Jr. or daughter Ivanka gains more traction within the party. If not, the first Trump loyalists already on the short-list include former United Nations Ambassador Nikki Haley, Sens. Marco Rubio (Fla.) and Ted Cruz (Texas), Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis and even Fox News host Tucker Carlson.

Alternatively, never-Trumpers who espouse traditional conservative values, have been getting behind Govs. Larry Hogan (Md.), Charlie Baker (Mass.) and Phil Scott (Vt.), all from Democratic-leaning states, former Ohio Gov. John Kasich or Sen. Ben Sasse of Nebraska, who gained notoriety before the Nov. 3 election for the leaked (wink, wink) recording of a call to his supporters in which he said Trump “kisses dictators’ butts” and spends like a “drunken sailor.”

Sasse had warned of a “Republican bloodbath” in that recording, predicting a Nov. 3 “Blue Wave” would give Democrats a big Senate majority. That didn’t happen, but questions of Trump’s authenticity as a conservative and whether he and his family can maintain control of the GOP remain.

Please address your comments to editors@thehustings.news

—–

Red, White & Blue Golf Carts at The Villages

By Todd Lassa

By the time former Vice President Joe Biden became the Democratic nominee for president this year, political pundits were still looking at the electoral college map like it was 2016 all over again. Could President Trump maintain his popularity and turn Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin blue once again?

Florida has 29 electoral college votes, however, to Pennsylvania’s 20, Michigan’s 16 and Wisconsin’s 10. It is one of the more reliably red states in play according to the latest polls, along with North Carolina, Arizona and even Texas.

Biden holds a 1.2-point lead over Trump in RealClearPolitics’ Oct. 30 average of 11 polls for Florida, which happens to be the same percentage victory that Trump had over Hillary Clinton in 2016. Four years ago, Trump’s RealClearPoilitics poll average was 0.2 points above Clinton just before the election.

Key to Florida’s choice next Tuesday will be the vote from The Villages, with its 130,000-plus residents, most of them seniors over 55, and many of whom vote assiduously. Residents motor around The Villages largely in electric golf carts. (In 2005 The Villages entered The Guinness World Records with a parade of 3,321 golf carts.) These carts make a great political news story photo op, as many of their owners festoon them with campaign signs.

Before and after the ’16 presidential election, the vast majority of those carts in The Villages were plastered with pro-Trump signs, piloted by seniors wearing red MAGA hats. This time, national media have covered a large influx of Biden-blue golf carts. Is it real, or is it an anomaly, with a handful of outspoken Democrats infiltrating the deep-red retirement neighborhood? Our resident of The Villages and our former GOP official from California discuss, in the left and right columns, respectively.

Please address your comments to editors@thehustings.news

—–

Coal, Jobs & Cronies

By Stephen Macaulay

In 2016, then-candidate Donald Trump was barnstorming with a message about coal.

“Clean coal,” he called it. Which, as is sometimes said, “isn’t a thing,” but we will let that go.

Trump would proclaim: “We’re going to get those miners back to work . . . the miners of West Virginia and Pennsylvania . . . Ohio and all over are going to start to work again, believe me.”

“We’re going to have an amazing mining business.”

They believed him. Trump won West Virginia, Pennsylvania, and Ohio. And how did those miners do? According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, in November 2016 there were 50,400 people employed in the U.S. coal industry.

How did he do? How many of those people did he get back to “an amazing mining business?”

In September 2020, the number of people involved in the coal-mining industry is 44,500.

Note that this is not a COVID-19 phenomenon. Coal jobs have been on a decline throughout the Trump presidency. What’s more, in October 2019, Murray Energy, the “country’s largest privately held coal miner” filed for Chapter 11 in October 2019, according to NS Energy, which covers the coal industry among other energy-related subjects. It became “the eighth U.S. coal producer to file for bankruptcy in the past year.”

NS Energy noted that company owner Bob Murray “has long advocated for government support for his industry and was a strong critic of the country’s former president Barack Obama, whose time in office he described as ‘eight years of pure hell.’”

“The coal tycoon has long been a supporter of President Donald Trump, and is believed to have played a major role in the reshaping of environmental policies over the past three years… .”

One might change the verb in that statement to “dismantling.”

Still, that did not seem to work out so well. According to the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis, renewables, which it defines as “utility-scale solar, wind and hydropower,” is increasingly important. “Renewables have now generated more electricity than coal on 131 days in 2020 — more than three times the 2019 results and with some 80 days left in the year.”

IEEFA concludes, “the data show coal power’s economic viability continuing to shrink … .”

Working people need to take his claims about coal into account when he talks about the jobs he has created and will create. Trump undoubtedly created more wealth for his cronies than for the stalwart men and women who once worked the mines can ever imagine.

—–