FRIDAY 5/19/23

Haley Welcomes DeSantis – From Des Moines, where Decision ’24 already is heating up, former North Carolina governor and UN ambassador Nikki Haley grabbed a bit of spotlight from Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (above), who is expected to announce his presidential candidacy next week.

“Welcome to the race. We’ve been waiting,” Haley said in an exclusive interview with The Hill. “I’m glad that he’s going to be out there because I want the American public to see who they’re choosing from.”

Haley was the second GOP candidate to announce, after Donald J. Trump, in February.

Meanwhile, back in FloridaDisney has cancelled plans for a $900 million Florida campus in Orlando’s Lake Nona and will close one of its most expensive attractions, the “Star Wars” adventure hotel, according to The Wall Street Journal.

Lake Nona, where more than 2,000 new employees were to work, is dead, Josh D’Amaro, head of Disney’s Parks, Experiences and Products division said.

“Given the considerable changes that have occurred since the announcement of this project, including new leadership and changing business conditions, we have decided not to move forward.”

Though “changing conditions” include Disney’s “significant” job and budget cuts, they also include a governor, DeSantis, who is not acting a Republican when it comes to his treatment of big business.

•••

Feinstein Resists Early Retirement – “Early” for the 89-year-old senator from California means before her current term is up in January 2025. Sen. Diane Feinstein (D-CA) already has announced she will not run again, and Democratic Reps. Barbara Lee, Adam Schiff and Katie Porter each have announced their intention to fill her shoes. 

Feinstein appeared “shockingly diminished” upon her return to the Senate last week after she was out more than two months for complications from shingles. Key among them was the revelation of a previously unreported case of encephalitis, The New York Times reports. The shingles also spread to Feinstein’s face and neck, resulting in Ramsey Hunt syndrome. 

While the drumbeats for her early retirement continue and she continues to resist, Feinstein only needs to remain in office to the March 5, 2024 primary, when Democratic voters in the state will choose from Lee, Porter and Schiff. Democratic Gov. Gavin Newsom has stated his intention of choosing California’s first female senator, which could set up Lee as the catbird seat candidate for next year.

--TL

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THURSDAY 5/18/23

Santosland Diaries -- House Republicans defeated a symbolic House Democrat resolution to expel truth-challenged Rep. George Santos by referring the resolution to the Ethics Committee, by a 221-204 party line vote. Democrats on the Ethics Committee voted “present” to avoid conflict of interest, according to NPR. The unsuccessful expulsion resolution was introduced by Rep. Robert Garcia (D-CA).

Garcia raised the question of privilege, which allows members to force a vote on certain resolutions without support of House leadership. House leaders then have two days to bring the resolution to the floor.

Santos was indicted last week on federal criminal charges, including wire fraud, money laundering, theft of public funds and making false statements to the House.

Doing the math: It takes two-thirds majority to expel a congress member for what would be only the fourth time in U.S. history, Roll Call reports. If successful, it would reduce Speaker Kevin McCarthy’s four-vote majority to just three. McCarthy said the Justice Department’s investigation of Santos should proceed as the congress member continues to participate in floor votes. 

On MSNBC’s All in With Chris Hayes, Rep. Becca Balint (D-VT) said other House Republicans “cheer” Santos’ vote as he helps them make laws. 

“They are certainly interested in protecting him,” Balint said. 

--TL

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WEDNESDAY 5/17/23

Deal or No Deal? – Anyone who ever has been involved in labor negotiations from either side will recognize the pattern of the dance between President Biden and Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) over raising the debt ceiling in time to avoid economic disaster. For weeks, months even, each side stands firm while blaming the other for not negotiating in good faith. 

Biden will not give up hard-fought programs like the Inflation Reduction Act to assure the federal government will pay its debts incurred over the last fiscal year. McCarthy and his thin House majority will not pay those debts unless the White House cuts back on its spending. The two sides get closer, closer, closer, though they never seem to be close to a deal until the last possible minute. Then suddenly, a breakthrough. Or not, though Congress and the president have always come through in the past. 

With barely two weeks to go until a very likely economic meltdown as early as June 1, if the government doesn’t pay its bills, we’re in that amorphous period where the union is determined not to strike and the employer truly does not want the down-time, but progress is not obvious.

Tuesday, Biden said he would cut short a diplomatic trip to Asia, which begins with a G7 summit in Hiroshima. But Biden has cancelled a planned trip afterward to Australia, next week in order to concentrate on the debt ceiling. Both Biden and McCarthy “showed signs of optimism” after an hour-long meeting in the Oval Office Tuesday afternoon (labor negotiations are never that short), The New York Times reports.

“We just finished another good, productive meeting with congressional leadership about a path forward to make sure America does not default on its debt,” Biden said.

McCarthy told reporters that he could see a deal reached “by the end of the week.”

Apparently the White House sees the Republican light on calling back unspent COVID relief bills.

We predict a spoiled Memorial Day weekend for one or both of the chambers.

--TL

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TUESDAY 5/16/23

Durham Reports on Trump Investigation – John Durham, a special counsel appointed in 2019 by then-Attorney Gen. William Barr to investigate the investigators in alleged Russian tampering into the 2016 Trump campaign, released more than 300 pages of criticism for the way the FBI handled the probe, The Washington Post reports. 

According to Durham’s report, the FBI’s investigation of Trump’s first presidential campaign – codenamed ‘Crossfire Hurricane’ was based on “raw, unanalyzed and uncorroborated intelligence.” 

Conversely, the FBI “proceeded cautiously” on alleged influence by a foreign actor in the 2016 Clinton campaign, WaPo says. The FBI’s conduct in Crossfire Hurricane previously came under fire in a 2019 report by the Justice Department’s inspector general, which did not find “documentary or testimonial evidence of intentional misconduct” on the part of the Trump campaign. 

Democrats have denounced the Durham report, which comes after an investigation from which no one was sent to jail.

Trump, who predicted four years ago the special counsel would uncover the “crime of the century” on Monday claimed victory, writing in social medial; “the American Public was scammed, just as it is being scammed right now by those who don’t want to see GREATNESS for AMERICA!”

--TL

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Meanwhile This Week

MONDAY MAY 15, 2023

More UK Arms to Ukraine – The United Kingdom will send “hundreds” more missiles and attack drones to the Ukraine, British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak announced in a meeting with President Volodomyr Zelinskyy in England, Monday, Time reports. Sunak told Zelinskyy, who landed at Sunak’s Chequers country retreat; “your leadership, your country’s bravery and fortitude are an inspiration to us all.”

On Sunday for the third stop on a whirlwind European tour that also included Paris and Rome, Zelinskyy told reporters in Berlin he is not interested in negotiating a peace deal with Russian leader Vladimir Putin, whom he called “insane.” 

“It’s a joke for him. He does not understand what is happening. He is an insane human,” Zelinskyy said, according to a Ukrainian government readout of a press conference following his talks with German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, as reported by Newsweek

“Putin started the war. Russia took lives. The war is on our land. …

“We have not proposed an artificial plan,” Zelinskyy continued. “We have proposed how to get out of this situation, to end the war, according to the law, respecting the UN Charter, international law, people, values.” Ukraine’s Peace Formula is a 10-point plan that outlines Kyiv’s conditions for peace, and Zelinskyy says he is “not interested” in meeting with Putin for peace talks.

•••

Erdogan Beats Earthquake – Incumbent Recep Tayyip Erdo¨gan pulled out an upset, but not quite a victory, against Republican People’s Party (CHP) challenger Kiliçda Ro¨glu in Turkey’s presidential election Sunday. Erdogan received 49.51% of the vote, not enough to avoid a runoff, but well ahead of Ro¨glu’s 44.88%, a “bitter disappointment” for the challenger who had led in many polls. 

Third-party candidate Sinan Og¨an took 5.17% of the vote, indicating the potential to flip Sunday’s vote in the runoff.

Erdo¨gan, Turkey’s president for 20 years, took his hit in the polls over a slow government response February’s earthquake, which claimed 50,000 lives, and his low interest rates to revive the economy that resulted in 85% inflation, according to The Guardian.

The bigger picture: Though his nation is a NATO member, Erdo¨gan has cozied up to Vladimir Putin, in part by refusing to enforce Western sanctions against Russia after its 2022 invasion of Ukraine, and buying heavily discounted Russian oil, The New York Times reports. Erdo¨gan opposes Sweden’s application for NATO membership unless Stockholm first hands over Kurdish refugees, particularly those from the Kurdistan Workers’ Party. Erdo¨gan during his tenure also has jailed dissidents and suppressed independent media.

Though Western officials assiduously avoid being accused of interfering in Turkish politics, “it is an open secret that European leaders, not to speak of the Biden administration, would be delighted if Erdo¨gan were to lose,” the NYT says.

•••

More Debt-Ceiling Tuesday – President Biden is scheduled to resume talks with Congressional leaders over the debt ceiling Tuesday, NBC News and Bloomberg News reported Sunday, after a weekend of talks between Congressional and White House staffers. Biden was quoted from Rehoboth Beach, Delaware, Sunday as being “optimistic” over reaching a deal by a potential June 1 deadline for the federal government running out of money to pay its bills. 

“I think they’re moving along, hard to tell,” Biden said. “We have not reached the crunch point yet.”

•••

Up On The Hill – Both chambers are in session Monday through Thursday. The Senate only is in session Friday.

--Compiled and edited by Todd Lassa

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COMMENTS: editors@thehustings.news

Brazil’s 1/6 on 1/8 -- Inspired by the January 6th attack on the U.S. Capitol in support of Donald J. Trump’s Big Lie, thousands of supporters of Brazil’s far-right populist ex-President Jair Bolsonaro stormed the Congressional building, federal supreme court and presidential Panalto Palace in Brasilia (Semafor, NPR and AP) Sunday, demanding military intervention to return the government to the ex-president. Security forces have since regained control, says NPR’s Morning Editon. Leftist Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva beat Bolsonaro for the presidency in a close runoff last October. 

He’s Gone to Disney World!Bolsonaro, who has long made claims of “election fraud,” much like ex-President Trump begun well prior to the 2020 U.S. election, did not attend da Silva’s inauguration, and has been in Orlando, Florida, since at least last December, Morning Edition reports. 

•••

McCarthy’s Next Fight – Newly elected House Speaker Kevin McCarthy’s (R-CA) next battle was set to begin Monday night, as he faces potential opposition – this time from moderate Republicans -- against his rules package for the 118th Congress. Reps. Tony Gonzales (R-TX) and Nancy Mace (R-SC) are concerned over the concessions McCarthy had to make to hard-right MAGA House Republicans in order to get the majority vote for the speakership, including gutting the Office of Congressional Ethics, NPR’s Morning Edition says.

--Compiled and edited by Todd Lassa

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COMMENTS: editors@thehustings.news

By Todd Lassa

Judging from the crowd reaction at the 2021 CPAC “America Uncancelled” gathering, and from the large-ish group of the former president’s supporters outside the Orlando Hyatt convention hall, Donald J. Trump has already won the 2024 presidential election, just as he “won” last November. 

“I will continue to fight right by your side,” Trump told the adoring crowd at the beginning of his nearly two-hour speech to the Conservative Political Action Conference. “We’re not going to start a new party. We have the Republican Party. Wouldn’t that be brilliant? Let’s divide our vote. We’d never win again.”

This was the Sunday evening keynote, if that term applies to a speech in which ex-President Trump returned to familiar gripes and lies, specifically a repeat of how he really won a “stolen” election last November.

He called out the U.S. Supreme Court twice, at least, for refusing to hear challenges to the election results, including Texas’ suit against 18 states whose Electoral College votes went to Joseph R. Biden.

He repeated his attacks on Democrats, this time amping up the rhetoric such that they aren’t merely promulgating socialism but full-on communism. Trump slammed President Biden’s “failed” first month in office for many issues, including the dismantling of the former president’s draconian immigration policy and immediate stop on construction of the southern border wall on Mexico, making this policy look like the corollary to President Obama’s Affordable Care Act, which he spent four years unsuccessfully trying to kill. 

Trump promised to challenge the 10 Republican representatives in the House who voted to impeach him last January (singling out Liz Cheney, the “warmonger” from Wyoming) and seven Republican senators who voted to convict him last month, in their next primaries, and crowed about how his endorsement of Sen. Mitch McConnell, R-KY, (whose mention garnered a healthy round of “boos”) pushed him to re-election victory.

In the end, former President Donald J. Trump lit up the crowd with this: “We have to have triumph. We must have victory. That is exactly what we will do. We will go on to victory. We’re tougher than they are. We’re stronger than they are.” 

“And then a Republican president will make a triumphant return to the White House,” Trump continued. “And I wonder who that will be. … I wonder who that will be. … Who, who, who will that be.” It wasn’t a question.

It most likely will not be Sen. Ted Cruz, R-TX, who appeared in the opening hours of CPAC last Friday to joke about how nice is was to be in Orlando, though “not as nice as Cancun.” 

Cruz did not make CPAC’s straw poll of 2024 presidential nomination candidates, which Trump captured with 55% of the vote, The Hill reports. Florida Gov. Ron De Santis was next with 21%, and South Dakota Gov. Kristi Noem grabbed 4%. And 95% of CPAC attendees said they want the GOP to continue Trump’s not-consistently conservative populism. (Click on Forum for the complete straw poll results.)

Which raises the question of how much of today’s GOP CPAC represents. Interviewed on CNN after Trump finished to the sounds of The Village People’s “YMCA,” (Fox News followed the speech with highlights of the speech), the ex-president’s national security advisor from 2018-19 and former Fox News contributor John Bolton, described the former president’s speech as “like watching an old movie, very stale … or TV reruns.”

Of Trump’s straw poll showing of 55% Bolton said, “that is a pathetic figure. I would expect 90%. That is an indication of how much he’s fallen already.”

How much has Trump fallen? On one hand, CPAC’s traditional role as representing the right edge of the Republican party could be seen as a misrepresentation of Trump’s continued popularity within the party (several pundits have remarked that Sen. Rand Paul, R-KY, has won the straw poll in the past, twice). On the other hand, no former Republican president has ever before bothered to even show up for the event a month after his successor’s inauguration. 

It seems to all come down to what happens in the next 21 months. If Trump’s candidates beat “un-loyal” Republicans in next year’s congressional primaries, and then go on to beat Democrats in the November 2022 mid-terms, Trump might be on his way to a third presidential nomination. If none of that happens, McConnell and the traditional Republicans may prevail. 

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Read the full list of CPAC’s presidential candidate straw poll — click on Forum.