politics Archives - The Hustings

By Elias Sorich/Stacker

American politics have polarized faster than in other democracies, according to a report published in the National Bureau of Economic Research. This trend is reflected in the ideological movement of the U.S. Congress, with both Democrats and Republicans moving further and further away from an ideological center, though Republicans have done so on average more intensely. Indeed, the recent struggle of Republican House Majority Leader Kevin McCarthy to gain the speakership role highlighted the degree to which hard-right conservative politicians have come to hold disproportionately large sway over the Republican majority.

Many of those detractors, members of the Freedom Caucus, come from reliably Republican and ideologically conservative states, though a number come from more moderate or swing states. To develop an understanding of the complexity of the American political landscape, Stacker compiled voter turnout data from The New York Times and statewide political ideology data from Gallup to rank states by their share of self-identifying liberals. Ties were broken by the corresponding percentage of conservatives, as able. Voter data was then used to identify counties that voted against this statewide average ideology.

In looking at these counties, data from government agencies such as the Census Bureau and research institutes—such as the Pew Research Center and the Public Religion Research Institute—were used to highlight and analyze demographic factors that might make the political ideology of the county apparent. Percentages of people identifying as "white Christian" in each county were sourced from the 2020 Census of American Religion. Detailed voter turnout data was unavailable for Virginia, Alaska, Louisiana, and Alabama.

In terms of understanding how these demographic factors affect the political lean of an American voter, a few qualities stand out as the biggest and most reliable predictors of party affiliation and ideological tendency. Namely, religion, race, education, and where a voter falls on the urban-rural divide. To distill these complexities into a couple of takeaways: Racially diverse communities lean Democrat by wide margins, and white Christians account for a large percentage of Republican votes. The highly educated tend to lean Democrat quite broadly, and in presidential elections, rural areas see a 15-22 point increase in Republican votes regardless of other variables such as race and education. Gender, age, and sexuality all play into the equation as well, with older voters leaning conservative, women leaning Democrat, men leaning slightly Republican, and LGBTQ+ voters overwhelmingly liberal. Florence County, Wisconsin

ehrlif // Shutterstock

#20. Wisconsin: 24% liberal, 35% conservative

- Most conservative county: Florence County
--- Republican votes in 2020: 2,133 (72.6%)
--- Total votes cast: 2,940

Located on the northernmost, rural border between Wisconsin and Michigan, Florence County has a population of 4,558, of which 94.6% is white, most of whom identify as white and Christian. The county has a population density of 9.3 people per square mile, a median age 15.9 years higher than the national average of 38.6, and 20.6% of its population has attained a bachelor's degree or higher, 14.4% lower than the national average of 35%. Fulton County, Pennsylvania

Alejandro Guzmani // Shutterstock

#19. Pennsylvania: 24% liberal, 34% conservative

- Most conservative county: Fulton County
--- Republican votes in 2020: 6,824 (85.4%)
--- Total votes cast: 7,990

Fulton County shares a border with Maryland to the south and is sparsely populated, with McConnellsburg (population 1,150) its largest town. In terms of explaining conservative dominance in the county, three demographics stand out: its population of 14,556 is 94.3% white, only 15.7% of residents have a bachelor's degree or higher, and 80% of the population identifies as white Christian. Sussex County, Delaware