Tag: polls

…meanwhile…

Hobbs Declared Next Arizona Governor – Secretary of State Katie Hobbs (D) has beat 2020 election-denier Kari Lake (R) to become the next governor of Arizona to succeed term-limited Gov. Doug Ducey, AP reports. That makes Hobbs the first Democrat to win the state’s governorship since 2006. 

The last-standing election denier among gubernatorial candidates according to the Arizona Republic, Lake last month refused to say she would concede if she lost the election. 

“I’m going to win the election, and I will accept that result,” she told Dana Bash, host of CNN’s State of the Union.

Trump’s ‘Big Announcement’: Speaking of election deniers, Donald J. Trump is still expected to announce his run for the 2024 GOP presidential nomination Tuesday, though some Republicans have publicly urged him to wait until after the December 6 runoff for the Georgia Senate seat between incumbent Democrat Raphael Warnock and MAGA challenger Herschel Walker. Some pundits suggest Trump may pull back given the bad timing. Trump has teased a “big announcement” at Mar-a-Lago, where he will gather loyal members of the Republican Party and media. 

Kemp to Testify: Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp was to testify Tuesday morning before the Fulton County special grand jury investigating whether Trump and his allies criminally meddled in Georgia’s 2020 elections, The Atlanta Journal-Constitutionreports, citing two sources. Remember, Trump was only asking for 11,780 additional Georgia votes.

Plus-One House Seat for Republicans: The AP also called two House races for Republican candidates and one for Democrats, with Rep. David Schweikert (R) winning re-election for Arizona’s 1st congressional district and Juan Ciscomani (R) winning Arizona’s 6th, while Democrat Andrea Salinas took Oregon’s 6th district. 

With these final results, the count stands at 214 Republicans and 204 Democrats, with 218 needed to control the House. 

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Roster of GOP Presidential Candidates – Most prominent challenger to ex-President Trump for the 2024 GOP presidential nomination is Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, of course; a onetime ally whom The Donald now considers an annoying threat. But wait, there’s more. The Washington Post says the following are considering runs for the nomination in ’24 …

Usual Suspects: Former New Jersey governor and early Trump ally turned critic Chris Christie, former Vice President Mike Pence, whose book So Help Me God releases Tuesday, and first-term governor and political newbie Glenn Youngkin of Virginia. 

Never-Trumper: Outgoing Maryland Gov. Larry Hogan has said he is interested in exploring a run.

Playing Both Sides: Former Trump acolytes who have ‘moved on’ include Nikki Haley, former South Carolina governor and U.N. ambassador for Trump, Sen. Tim Scott of South Carolina, and Mike Pompeo, former CIA director and Trump administration secretary of state. 

--Compiled and edited by Todd Lassa

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Dems Hold the Senate

(MON 11/14/22)

Pollsters and pundits have been agonizing over how predictions of a big red wave in last week’s midterm elections turned out to be a big mistake, even though reports for weeks of high early voter turnouts should have provided a clue. What we got was a raft of polls showing key races within the margin of error. 

And so even before the December 6 runoff between incumbent Sen. Raphael Warnock (D-GA) and Donald J. Trump-backed challenger Herschel Walker, the Democratic Party again has wafer-thin control of the Senate. The party reached the magic 50-senator count over the weekend when Nevada finally declared incumbent Catherine Cortez Masto winner against Adam Laxalt’s challenge. Never mind that members of Laxalt’s political family (his father was preternaturally moderate Sen. Pete Dominici (R-NM) and his grandfather was Paul Laxalt, a Nevada governor then U.S. senator) urged voters to cast their ballots for Cortez Masto.

But for months there have been few predictions of a Republican takeover of the Senate. You’d have to go to Fox News or outlets to its right for that. The House is another story, where Republicans were expected to flip up to 24 seats, but now there is a slim chance Democrats could maintain control.

As of Sunday, 19 of 435 seats were awaiting declared winners. Republicans have won 212 so far to the Democratic Party’s 204 seats, according to The New York Times, with 218 seats necessary for a majority.

--Todd Lassa

CORRECTION: An earlier version of this post misstated the date for the Georgia Senate race runoff, which will be held December 6.

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COMMENTS: editors@thehustings.news

In Search of Free and Fair Elections in Pennsylvania

By Andrew Boyd

Rural Pennsylvania, in the vicinity of Lancaster, was the place of my upbringing, and my parents and grandparents, who, on my mother’s side, were Mennonites of the mostly orthodox variety. It was a generally conservative vibe of the God Bless America, hand over heart, tell the truth, stand up straight, elbows off the table, “yes sir, yes, ma’am” variety.

I watched, then, with special interest the rioting in Lancaster that followed the police shooting back in September. I was encouraged by the response of local authorities in quickly rounding up and charging instigators. It seems law and order still has a foothold someplace, although I’m told by friends who haven’t left that Lancaster, or significant pockets of it, have succumbed to the kind of generalized rot of homelessness, hopelessness, drugs, poverty and cultural nihilism that characterizes far too much of America these days. It’s a really serious and pervasive problem that ought to be the stuff of serious discussion and debate, but what kind of ratings or clicks would that likely generate, right? Moving on. 

It’s hard not to be cynical about a lot of things these days, and where the Pennsylvania vote count is concerned, I think conservatives are justified in at least raising an eyebrow when no less than the state’s Attorney General, Josh Shapiro, asserts a full day before the polls are closed -- if Pennsylvania polls can ever be said to be truly closed -- that “if all the votes are added up in PA, Trump is going to lose.”  Excuse me, what? Reverse political polarities on this one and it’d be the stuff of mainstream media outrage and late-night TV host wet dreams for weeks if not months or years to follow. But down the memory hole it goes. Bye, bye. 

That little bit of saying the quiet part out loud followed a series of judicial rulings that also flew in the face of established PA election law -- the kind made by, you know, lawmakers -- because, you know, COVID; just the latest example of left’s pandemic hypocrisy. Thankfully, we’ve had some more recent state court rulings that lean into established legal doctrine, like the courts aren’t supposed to make the law, meaning questionable ballots are at least sequestered, including those from voters unable to produce identification at the time of their filing. 

That said, I suspect the game is up, and that all of the litigation in the world, legitimate or otherwise, won’t make a difference in the end. And, so be it. Where free and fair elections are concerned, I’m not rooting for either party, or any outcome except that which follows the letter of the law, because, you know, the ends do not justify the means. What an old-fashioned idea that is, right? Blame it on my upbringing, and pass the shoo-fly pie, please.

Boyd is a public relations and communications professional with 30-years experience. He lives with his wife and three daughters in Charlotte, N.C.

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Red, White & Blue Golf Carts at The Villages

By Todd Lassa

By the time former Vice President Joe Biden became the Democratic nominee for president this year, political pundits were still looking at the electoral college map like it was 2016 all over again. Could President Trump maintain his popularity and turn Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin blue once again? 

Florida has 29 electoral college votes, however, to Pennsylvania’s 20, Michigan’s 16 and Wisconsin’s 10. It is one of the more reliably red states in play according to the latest polls, along with North Carolina, Arizona and even Texas. 

Biden holds a 1.2-point lead over Trump in RealClearPolitics’ Oct. 30 average of 11 polls for Florida, which happens to be the same percentage victory that Trump had over Hillary Clinton in 2016. Four years ago, Trump’s  RealClearPoilitics  poll average was 0.2 points above Clinton just before the election. 

Key to Florida’s choice next Tuesday will be the vote from The Villages, with its 130,000-plus residents, most of them seniors over 55, and many of whom vote assiduously. Residents motor around The Villages largely in electric golf carts. (In 2005 The Villages entered The Guinness World Records with a parade of 3,321 golf carts.)  These carts make a great political news story photo op, as many of their owners festoon them with campaign signs. 

Before and after the ’16 presidential election, the vast majority of those carts in The Villages were plastered with pro-Trump signs, piloted by seniors wearing red MAGA hats. This time, national media have covered a large influx of Biden-blue golf carts. Is it real, or is it an anomaly, with a handful of outspoken Democrats infiltrating the deep-red retirement neighborhood? Our resident of The Villages and our former GOP official from California discuss, in the left and right columns, respectively.

Please address your comments to editors@thehustings.news

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Biden Holds a Big Lead Over Trump, but How Reliable Are The Polls This Time?

By Todd Lassa

Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden holds an 8.9-point lead over President Donald J. Trump (51.2 percent to 42.3 percent) according to an average of major political polls by Real Clear Politics. It is reasonable to ask whether the president’s Friday morning tweet slamming Sen. Susan Collins helps or hurts the Republican senator from Maine now fighting for her political life, who has said she will not vote in favor of Judge Amy Coney Barrett’s nomination to the U.S. Supreme Court. Collins faces a daunting challenge from Democrat Sara Gideon, Maine’s House speaker, in the Nov. 3 elections.

The president’s Friday tweet reads, “There is a nasty rumor out there that @Susan Collins of Maine will not be supporting our great United States Supreme Court Nominee. Well, she didn’t support Healthcare or my opening up 5000 square miles of Ocean to Maine, so why should this be any different. Not worth the work.”

Closing in on two weeks before the Nov. 3 national elections, the real threat of a Blue Wave accompanying a Biden win would entail a big swing from the GOP’s 53-47 Senate majority, and potentially has Democrats building on their 233-196 majority in the House. Even relatively secure Senate Republicans may be hedging their bets.

Sen. Ben Sasse, R-Nebraska, as a member of the Judiciary Committee handled Supreme Court nominee Barrett with kid gloves earlier this week but criticized President Trump’s Thursday night Town Hall on NBC in a conference call to constituents, the Washington Examiner reports. 

Trump “kisses dictators’ butts,” “sells out our allies” and “trash-talks evangelicals behind their backs,” Sasse reportedly said. He further slammed the president for “mistreating women” and initially “ignoring COVID.” Trump supporters will note that Sasse is considered an early contender for the 2024 Republican presidential nomination, a race Donald Trump Jr. may fight if the GOP balance of power remains in his family’s orbit. 

While having brushed off polls showing a huge deficit to former Vice President Biden for many weeks, Trump himself has predicted a repeat of his 2016 campaign performance, which means he’s closing in, especially in the final week. Four years ago Trump gained on Hillary Clinton after the former secretary of state led many polls only by four or five points, often within statistical error of a tie. This year, Trump must overcome landslide-style deficits nationally as well as large margins in battleground states, and even in erstwhile Republican strangleholds like Arizona and North Carolina, where Sens. Martha McSally and Thom Tillis face potential losses to their Democratic challengers. 

Our right-column pundit thinks President Trump has a big chance of pulling off another upset, and our left-column pundit, having been gobsmacked by the 2016 election worries the argument holds many valid points.

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