Can Biden Work with The Squad and Centrist Republicans?

By Todd Lassa

As moderates and traditionalists continue to wrestle the Republican Party from the hands of President Trump and his most faithful populist followers, the Democratic Party is mirroring its cross-aisle rivals with a similar struggle. President-elect Joe Biden and his transition team, though hobbled by Trump’s aversion to conceding the election, are working hard to take the middle road and avoid concessions to The Squad led by Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, D-N.Y., as well as voters who would rather have voted for Sen. Bernie Sanders, I-Vt., as the Democratic Party’s nominee.

Democrats this election season have been uncharacteristically low-key compared with the GOP about infighting between centrists and their respective hardline wings. Biden’s record 79-million-plus votes Nov. 3 certainly includes both an unknown number of centrist Republicans who never would have voted for Sanders, or for Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.), for that matter, as well as young Democrats who would have preferred Sanders.

But the 2020 “Blue Wave” never happened. Biden must govern from the White House with Republicans increasing their minority in the House of Representatives by at least six seats and with Senate leadership depending on Georgia’s special January runoff elections for both of its seats. Democratic candidates must win both runoffs for a 50-50 count in the Senate, with Vice President-elect Kamala Harris to serve as the tie-breaker. Even if that long-shot happens, Biden will face a recalcitrant Sen. Mitch McConnell, R-Ky., who infamously vowed 12 years ago to make Barack Obama a one-term president and will undoubtedly lead his fellow Republican senators in key filibusters.

Already, Capitol Hills pundits are talking about how Biden will have to rule by executive order, where he can, to reverse some of the policies that Trump is rushing to implement in his waning time as president, including efforts to begin the final process of leasing parts of Alaska’s Arctic National Wildlife Refuge to oil companies.

The future of the fossil fuel industry and potential for alternatives to gain prominence is central to both sides, of course, including traditional pro-business Republicans and Democrats like Ocasio-Cortez, who with Sen. Ed Markey, D-Mass., unveiled the Green New Deal shortly after she took office in early 2019.

At presstime, President-elect Biden’s cabinet picks were beginning to emerge and they are largely considered centrists. Anthony Blinken will be nominated for secretary of state according to Bloomberg, Linda Greenfield-Thomas will be tapped for United Nations ambassador and Jake Sullivan, former aide to Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, will be national security advisor. The Biden transition team already has confirmed that longtime advisor Ron Klain will be the 46^th president’s chief of staff.

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Biden’s Short Coattails Predict Two More Years of Split Government

By Todd Lassa

As of Monday morning, 97-percent of the presidential election vote is in and Democrat Joe Biden leads Republican incumbent Donald Trump, 50.9 percent to 47.3 percent, according to the latest count by NBC News. The pertinent number, of course, is 306 to 232, the Electoral College advantage for former Vice President Biden, who has matched the count President Trump had when he beat Hillary Clinton in the 2016 race.

Biden’s 50.9-percent most certainly is not a “mandate,” though historians say it is the highest share against an incumbent candidate since Democrat Franklin Delano Roosevelt beat Republican Herbert Hoover in 1932.

What’s certain about the first half, at least, of Biden’s term as president is that he will not have much success pushing an aggressive, potentially progressive agenda through the 117^th Congress. Though Democrats hold on to the House of Representatives, retaining Nancy Pelosi as speaker, the margin has shrunk by eight seats to 224 Democratic to 211 Republican. In the Senate, Democrats must win both January runoffs in Georgia to acquire a 50-50 split and take the majority vote from Republicans, with Vice President-elect Harris providing the tie-breaker.

If Georgia doesn't chose both Democratic candidates over the Republicans in January's Senate race runoffs, Senate Majority Leader McConnell will potentially have as much power in Washington as the president. Followers of Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) and The Squad are not likely to gain much legislative traction in this scenario.

The “blue wave” many expected this year has been largely restricted to the presidential race, with Republicans making many down-ballot gains, including in state governments.

It is appropriate, then, that left-column pundit Jim McCraw, a centrist living in The Villages, Florida who supported Biden in the Nov. 3 election provides a recommended agenda for the president-elect. Equally appropriate that right-column pundit Bryan Williams, a former GOP operative in Southern California counters McCraw’s proposals without much serious disagreement. While Williams supported the populist-nationalist Trump in the 2020 election (though not the 2016 election), his own pro-business, laissez-fair agenda is more reminiscent of old-fashioned Mitt Romney conservatism.

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View of Election Night from the Left

Nov. 5 UPDATE: There has been no "blue wave" in the U.S. Senate, with Mitch McConnell, R-Ky., expected to retain his position as majority chairman. [He has since suggested the Senate consider a second coronavirus relief package before the presidential inauguration, a shift from a previous position that it would not be considered until after Jan. 20.] Currently, the Senate makeup is 48-48, with Democrats up one seat and Republicans down by one. The GOP will almost certainly win two more, with incumbents Dan Sullivan of Alaska, and David Perdue of Georgia expected to retain their leads. Of the two remaining, incumbent Sen. Thom Tillis, R-N.C., leads Democratic challenger Cal Cunningham, 48.7 percent to 46.9 percent, though with 94 percent of the ballots counted, Tillis could lose if Biden ultimately flips the state. The second is a special election in Georgia for its other Senate seat, where Democratic candidate Raphael Warnock, at 32.7 percent of the vote with 96 percent of the ballots in, and incumbent Republican Kelly Loeffler, at 26.1 percent, edged out Republican challenger Doug Collins at 20.1 percent. The runoff will be held in January.

The Hustings asked contributing liberal pundits to tell us their thoughts of the presidential election just before turning in for the night. Whether because they were still watching well into Wednesday as we went to post, or because they fell asleep trying to wait out the results, our responses have been rather limited. Here’s what we heard back:

For liberal pundit Michelle Naranjo, Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden’s failure to strike a decisive blow against the Trump campaign is disappointing, though perhaps not much of a surprise.

“There is a blazing red mirage in front of the U.S. map tonight,” she writes. “Ballot counts appear close, and possibly even dire for the Biden, but much like Trump’s escapades, it is temporary smoke and mirrors.

“Republicans appear to be leading in vote tallies, but in-person votes (heavily Republican) are being counted before mail-in ballots, which typically skew Democratic voters. Tomorrow, and even the days following should pull the real results into focus.”

As noted in his last left column [“Fair and Unbalanced,” Nov. 3], Stephen Macaulay is at home, either watching “The Mandalorian” or reading a book.

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Red, White & Blue Golf Carts at The Villages

By Todd Lassa

By the time former Vice President Joe Biden became the Democratic nominee for president this year, political pundits were still looking at the electoral college map like it was 2016 all over again. Could President Trump maintain his popularity and turn Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin blue once again?

Florida has 29 electoral college votes, however, to Pennsylvania’s 20, Michigan’s 16 and Wisconsin’s 10. It is one of the more reliably red states in play according to the latest polls, along with North Carolina, Arizona and even Texas.

Biden holds a 1.2-point lead over Trump in RealClearPolitics’ Oct. 30 average of 11 polls for Florida, which happens to be the same percentage victory that Trump had over Hillary Clinton in 2016. Four years ago, Trump’s RealClearPoilitics poll average was 0.2 points above Clinton just before the election.

Key to Florida’s choice next Tuesday will be the vote from The Villages, with its 130,000-plus residents, most of them seniors over 55, and many of whom vote assiduously. Residents motor around The Villages largely in electric golf carts. (In 2005 The Villages entered The Guinness World Records with a parade of 3,321 golf carts.) These carts make a great political news story photo op, as many of their owners festoon them with campaign signs.

Before and after the ’16 presidential election, the vast majority of those carts in The Villages were plastered with pro-Trump signs, piloted by seniors wearing red MAGA hats. This time, national media have covered a large influx of Biden-blue golf carts. Is it real, or is it an anomaly, with a handful of outspoken Democrats infiltrating the deep-red retirement neighborhood? Our resident of The Villages and our former GOP official from California discuss, in the left and right columns, respectively.

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Biden Holds a Big Lead Over Trump, but How Reliable Are The Polls This Time?

By Todd Lassa

Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden holds an 8.9-point lead over President Donald J. Trump (51.2 percent to 42.3 percent) according to an average of major political polls by Real Clear Politics. It is reasonable to ask whether the president’s Friday morning tweet slamming Sen. Susan Collins helps or hurts the Republican senator from Maine now fighting for her political life, who has said she will not vote in favor of Judge Amy Coney Barrett’s nomination to the U.S. Supreme Court. Collins faces a daunting challenge from Democrat Sara Gideon, Maine’s House speaker, in the Nov. 3 elections.

The president’s Friday tweet reads, “There is a nasty rumor out there that @Susan Collins of Maine will not be supporting our great United States Supreme Court Nominee. Well, she didn’t support Healthcare or my opening up 5000 square miles of Ocean to Maine, so why should this be any different. Not worth the work.”

Closing in on two weeks before the Nov. 3 national elections, the real threat of a Blue Wave accompanying a Biden win would entail a big swing from the GOP’s 53-47 Senate majority, and potentially has Democrats building on their 233-196 majority in the House. Even relatively secure Senate Republicans may be hedging their bets.

Sen. Ben Sasse, R-Nebraska, as a member of the Judiciary Committee handled Supreme Court nominee Barrett with kid gloves earlier this week but criticized President Trump’s Thursday night Town Hall on NBC in a conference call to constituents, the Washington Examiner reports.

Trump “kisses dictators’ butts,” “sells out our allies” and “trash-talks evangelicals behind their backs,” Sasse reportedly said. He further slammed the president for “mistreating women” and initially “ignoring COVID.” Trump supporters will note that Sasse is considered an early contender for the 2024 Republican presidential nomination, a race Donald Trump Jr. may fight if the GOP balance of power remains in his family’s orbit.

While having brushed off polls showing a huge deficit to former Vice President Biden for many weeks, Trump himself has predicted a repeat of his 2016 campaign performance, which means he’s closing in, especially in the final week. Four years ago Trump gained on Hillary Clinton after the former secretary of state led many polls only by four or five points, often within statistical error of a tie. This year, Trump must overcome landslide-style deficits nationally as well as large margins in battleground states, and even in erstwhile Republican strangleholds like Arizona and North Carolina, where Sens. Martha McSally and Thom Tillis face potential losses to their Democratic challengers.

Our right-column pundit thinks President Trump has a big chance of pulling off another upset, and our left-column pundit, having been gobsmacked by the 2016 election worries the argument holds many valid points.

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Barrett is on Her Way to Senate Confirmation before the Election

By Todd Lassa

Senate Judiciary Committee Chairman Lindsey Graham, R-S.C., has scheduled the panel’s vote on the nomination of Judge Amy Coney Barrett to the U.S. Supreme Court for 1 p.m. Thursday, Oct. 22. The committee, comprising 13 Republicans and 10 Democrats, is considered a sure bet for approving Barrett, whose hearings with the panel concluded Wednesday.

The full Senate will vote to approve Barrett before the presidential election Nov. 3, Graham said. With just two Republican senators, Lisa Murkowski of Alaska and Susan Collins of Maine, having earlier opposed seating a replacement for the late Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg before the election, the GOP still maintains a majority to approve President Trump’s nominee before the month is over.

In her appearances before the Judiciary Committee Tuesday and Wednesday, Barrett carefully demurred on questions from Democratic members over concerns the nominee would rule with the court’s fortified conservative majority on potential disputes over the Nov. 3 election, as well as a case the Trump administration brought to the courts over the Affordable Care Act. For the longer term, Democrats interrogated the conservative Catholic mother of seven on her views regarding the 1973 Roe vs. Wade Supreme Court case that made abortion legal nationally.

But on these and other matters, Barrett repeatedly declined to answer on potential future cases.

In her opening remarks, Barrett described herself as an “originalist” in the mold of her mentor, Justice Antonin Scalia, whose replacement after his death early in 2016 resulted in Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell blocking President Obama’s nominee, Merrick Garland.

“That means that I interpret the constitution as a law, that I interpret its text as text, and I understand it to have the meaning that it had at the time people ratified it,” she said.

Jeffrey Toobin, legal analyst for CNN and The New Yorker , told NPR Thursday morning that while several Supreme Court nominees have called themselves “originalists” since Scalia in 1982, “she may be the first one to actually mean it… .”

Barrett told the committee, however, that she is not a carbon-copy of her mentor.

“If I were confirmed, you’d be getting Justice Barrett, not Justice Scalia …,” she said. “I share Justice Scalia’s philosophy, but I never said I agree with him on every issue.”

She did give Democrats some hope in not ruling out the question of recusal from votes on next month’s election and on the ACA ruling, but again declined to answer Sen. Kamala Harris’, D-Calif., question on whether she believes in climate change, because of the potential for a case coming up before the court. [Republicans had singled out Harris, the Democratic vice presidential candidate, for what they considered aggressive questioning in Justice Brett Kavenaugh’s Judiciary committee hearing in 2018.]

Committee Republicans praised Barrett as a justice who will inspire young conservative women and girls the way Justice Ginsberg inspired young liberal women and girls.

“This is the first time we’ve nominated a woman who is unabashedly pro-life,” Graham said.

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To Lead or Not to Lead: Do We Need a Mask Mandate to Fight the Pandemic?

By Todd Lassa

Until either Donald J. Trump or Joe Biden pulls a political rabbit with bigger teeth out of his hat, this election season’s October Surprise, so far, has been news that the president contracted the virus that causes COVID-19 around the time of the first, and probably only, debate between the incumbent and his Democratic challenger.

Yes, it’s always about the economy, stupid, but as the Trump administration shifts on efforts to enact another federal aid package for corporations, individuals, and state and local governments in time for the Nov. 3 election, the future of our economy, especially over the next year or two, remains closely tied to the global health crisis.

A second economic relief package appears to be in limbo, for now, as Senate Judiciary Committee hearings over the nomination of Amy Coney Barrett to the US Supreme Court takes political precedent over whatever the status of negotiations between Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin and House Speaker Nancy Pelosi.

Amid it all, wearing masks in public and the question of how and when to re-open the economy to save what’s left of the restaurant, tavern, airline, and shopping mall industries remain the two related, underlying issues behind next month’s elections. These issues drill to the core of our nation’s much-discussed widened political gulf. Each side sees the other’s position on these issues as evidence of ruthless authoritarianism.

But while our pundits to left and right appear irresolvably far apart, and while this center column strives to be as objective on such matters as possible, it is a relief that Stephen Macaulay and Bryan Williams see eye-to-eye on one important fact – wearing masks in public should not be a political issue. They agree that It is good citizenship and an important weapon in fighting the pandemic.

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View from the Left: Talk with a Biden Supporter in Rural Pennsylvania

Jennifer Clark, of Meyersdale, Penn., did not vote in the 2016 presidential election, but now supports former Vice President Joe Biden.

“It’s more so anti-Trump,” Clark says of her favored candidate. “Anti the man. I as I’ve gotten older, I can very much see both sides. For years I was a huge listener of right-wing talk radio. It drove my deceased husband crazy. I really believe that I’m pretty well-informed on both sides. I’m not a slave to MSNBC. I used to watch Fox News.

“Some key core values of the Republican party I don’t jell with. Those deep-seated abortion things. The Supreme Court is terrifying me right now.” Meyersdale voters are more concerned about economic issues than abortion, Clark believes.

“Even before he was elected,” Clark was troubled about “the way he talks about women. I’ve been through some of that. The way a white rich man in power thinks he can speak that way to anybody.”

Clark is “a little bit concerned” about Biden’s age. “I respect what he’s saying, what he stands for. But when Kamala got on board, I was really like, yes, this could be a positive change.”

She doesn’t believe Hilary Clinton “was the way to go” in 2016. Clark considers Kamala Harris sufficiently center-left “to bring people together,” and was encouraged to find a substantial number of members on a Facebook group page for Democratic women in Somerset County, where Meyersdale is located.

“I love talking politics to people who are like, Trumpsters,” she says, adding,“I’ve heard so many crazy conspiracy theories” about the coronavirus pandemic, and the president’s response. “Even the mask-wearing, and it makes me so mad because my kids go to school.”

Clark’s 15-year-old daughter returned to school Sep. 1, and often argues politics. She and her classmates must wear masks at school, but Clark often runs into her fellow parents, who do not.

Clark fears what the post-pandemic economy would be under Trump. “What are you going to do about that, Mr. Trump?” she says, noting that most Meyersdale residents do not play the stock market. She feels it’s time for Meyersdale voters still connected to the stagnant coal economy to find new lines of work.

President Obama and Vice President Biden “jumpstarted” the economy, Clark believes, “and (Trump) just comes along riding on the shirttails of that.”

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