Tag: The Villages

Biden’s Short Coattails Predict Two More Years of Split Government

By Todd Lassa

As of Monday morning, 97-percent of the presidential election vote is in and Democrat Joe Biden leads Republican incumbent Donald Trump, 50.9 percent to 47.3 percent, according to the latest count by NBC News. The pertinent number, of course, is 306 to 232, the Electoral College advantage for former Vice President Biden, who has matched the count President Trump had when he beat Hillary Clinton in the 2016 race. 

Biden’s 50.9-percent most certainly is not a “mandate,” though historians say it is the highest share against an incumbent candidate since Democrat Franklin Delano Roosevelt beat Republican Herbert Hoover in 1932.

What’s certain about the first half, at least, of Biden’s term as president is that he will not have much success pushing an aggressive, potentially progressive agenda through the 117th Congress. Though Democrats hold on to the House of Representatives, retaining Nancy Pelosi as speaker, the margin has shrunk by eight seats to 224 Democratic to 211 Republican. In the Senate, Democrats must win both January runoffs in Georgia to acquire a 50-50 split and take the majority vote from Republicans, with Vice President-elect Harris providing the tie-breaker.

If Georgia doesn't chose both Democratic candidates over the Republicans in January's Senate race runoffs, Senate Majority Leader McConnell will potentially have as much power in Washington as the president. Followers of Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) and The Squad are not likely to gain much legislative traction in this scenario.

The “blue wave” many expected this year has been largely restricted to the presidential race, with Republicans making many down-ballot gains, including in state governments. 

It is appropriate, then, that left-column pundit Jim McCraw, a centrist living in The Villages, Florida who supported Biden in the Nov. 3 election provides a recommended agenda for the president-elect. Equally appropriate that right-column pundit Bryan Williams, a former GOP operative in Southern California counters McCraw’s proposals without much serious disagreement. While Williams supported the populist-nationalist Trump in the 2020 election (though not the 2016 election), his own pro-business, laissez-fair agenda is more reminiscent of old-fashioned Mitt Romney conservatism. 

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Shifting Allegiances in The Villages

By Jim McCraw

The Villages, in Central Florida, is the country’s largest retirement community, with some 130,000 residents in one contiguous settlement spread across three counties. It has been a Republican stronghold for a long, long time.

The population here is vastly white, upper middle-class Christian, with a few Jewish, Black and Hispanic residents.

The Villages boasts the world’s largest American Legion post. It helped elect U.S. Navy veteran Rick Scott governor twice, then helped send the Republican to the U.S. Senate.  He was replaced by former Congressman Ron DeSantis, a fellow Republican and now the youngest governor in the country, just 42 when he took office.

The Villages are represented in the House by Republican Daniel Webster. Almost all of the county supervisors in Sumter, Lake and Marion counties, on which The Villages are built, are Republican. 

Sumter county routinely has the highest voter turnout in the entire state. Trump was swept into office in 2016, but his margin over Hillary Clinton was 1.2 percent in Florida. That’s about 112,900 votes.

Things have changed over the last four years, and now there is much more support here for Democrat Joe Biden. Disenchanted Republicans have been coming in to The Villages Democratic Club headquarters in Wildwood, the largest in Florida, since May to complain about Trump and ask how they can volunteer to help Biden’s campaign, says its president, Chris Stanley. 

She estimates 5.8 percent of Republicans in The Villages who voted for Trump in 2016 will vote for Biden on Tuesday. The disaffected cite three big reasons for switching candidates. 

“Reason number one is his handling of the coronavirus and his lack of leadership.  Reason number two is his view of military veterans as ‘suckers’ and ‘losers.’ They don’t like that. Reason number three is policy, the elimination [deferral] of the payroll tax [to mitigate economic effects of pandemic shutdowns], because it will affect their children and grandchildren.”

Republican Voters Against Trump recently completed a $3 million disgruntled-voter billboard campaign across Central Florida with messages like “I’m a Republican.  I’m a patriot.  I’m voting Biden.” … “I’m a Republican. I’m a Marine veteran.  I’m voting Biden.” …  “I’m a Republican. I’m a Christian. I’m voting Biden.”

“A lot of Republican voters are going to be casting their votes for Joe Biden because the last four years, what they expected they were going to get from the Trump administration has not been what they want, and Joe Biden is offering them an alternative to bring this country back,” says Daniel Henry, a young, Black Republican voter.

This year more than 40 percent of the state’s 14.4 million registered voted early, and Florida election experts predict the turnout in 2020 will exceed the 1992 record of 83 percent -- which could mean more than 100,000 from The Villages alone. There are signs that Florida could swing to the Democratic side, much as Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin flipped to the GOP four years ago, and The Villages, so solid-red for so long, will contribute to this swing.

Jim McCraw is a semi-retired writer and columnist. He has been a resident of The Villages for nearly five years.

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Greasing the Skids for Red MAGA-Hatted Golf Carts

By Bryan Williams

Imagine, if you will, a remake of the musical “Grease” for 2020, this time with senior citizens in their decked out hot rod golf carts. The concrete Los Angeles River is now a concrete pathway around a pristine Florida 55-plus housing development known as The Villages. Instead of racing for teenage glory and pink slips, these Villagers are in the horse race of presidential politics. Much hay has been made recently of a breakaway group of seniors parading in their golf carts for Joe Biden, when in 2016 The Villages went 70-percent for Trump, according to Courthouse News Service.

All indications point to this election being very close, just as it was in 2016. Trump won Florida by barely more than 1 percent. If it is indeed true that 5.8-percent of senior residents are changing their votes for Biden, this spells trouble for Trump. However, the same Courthouse News article reported that Trump held a rally at the Villages on Oct. 23 with all the pomp, cheering, and excited Trump voters that we have come to expect.

This seems like a hard one to call. Which way will Florida go? We all know that Trump was carried by seniors in 2016 and their support is critical in this round. Will losing nearly 6 percent of The Villages make a difference? Yes. Elections are very close these days. I worked for a California Republican candidate who won an election by 213 votes out of over 25,000 cast. That’s less than 1 percent.

And yet, polls show Florida is a toss-up with 1 percent to 2 percent separating each candidate. There is so much dueling data out there this election year that it can be hard to make sense of any of it. What should we choose? I’ll double down and stick with my prediction that Trump will eke out a win this year. It will be close --  a photo finish between blue Biden- and red MAGA-bedecked golf carts.

Williams is a mental health professional and former Republican party official in California.

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