Tag: Valencia County

View of Election Night from the Right

Nov. 5 UPDATE: Andy Boyd is 2-2 in his election night picks for House races to watch. In the race for Minnesota's 7th District, Republican candidate Michelle Fischbach has defeated veteran Rep. Collin Peterson (D). With 91 percent of the vote in for Iowa's 1st District, Republican challenger Ashley Hinson leads Democratic freshman Rep. Abbey Finkenauer, 51.3 percent to 48.7 percent. But in Utah's 4th, Democratic incumbent Rep. Ben McAdams leads Republican Ben Owens, 48.2 percent to 47.1 percent, with just 73 percent of the ballots reported, and in Pennsylvania's 8th District, freshman Democratic Rep. Matt Cartwright leads Republican challenger Jim Bognet, 51.1 percent to 48.9 percent, with 90 percent of the ballots counted. (All results via The New York Times.) In his Nov. 3 post, Boyd hoped President Trump's coattails would raise the count of Republican House members above 200. Instead, Biden leads the race for president with no coattails, and the Republican Party looks to gain six House members, to 190.

The Hustings asked contributing conservative pundits to tell us their thoughts of the presidential election just before turning in for the night. Whether because they were still watching well into Wednesday as we went to post, or because they fell asleep trying to wait out the results, our responses have been rather limited. Here’s what we heard back:

In an October 17 conservative commentary explaining why he thought President Trump will win the election by a close margin, Bryan Williams pointed to two small counties in the U.S. that have been near-perfect in predicting the way the rest of the nation would go. 

“I said to watch Vigo County, Indiana, and Valencia County, New Mexico as bellwethers for the election,” Williams says. “Vigo must be having issues reporting because as of 9:30 p.m. Central time, no results have been reported still. But...but...!  Valencia County has reported partial results (approximately 35 percent of ballots counted) and Trump is leading 67 percent to 31 percent. This bodes well for Trump...and the track record of my prediction.”

Some three hours later, it should be noted, vote counts for neither rural county could be found immediately online. Trump has been declared the winner in the state of Indiana, while Biden has won New Mexico.

Henry Payne defends the incumbent (in commentary submitted before the president’s White House appearance Wednesday morning), saying, “Trump’s policies, like his rhetoric, are often blunt and ill-conceived. But middle-class Americans sense someone in leadership fighting for them against corporate, media, and government elites.”

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Incumbent Trump is Set to Pull Out a Second Upset

By Bryan Williams

Predictions can be a wily business. Some tout that they have never been wrong since Dewey vs. Truman (and go on to be right), and some make grandiose claims and flame out. Others stick to a version of, “It’s the economy, stupid,” and base their prediction off what Wall Street investors think/say/invest in. Here is my first ever presidential prediction: Donald Trump will eke out a slim win (again) and get four more years. Here’s why:

Since 1952, political “outsiders” or candidates who are younger than their opponent have had advantage in key races. World War II general and war hero Dwight D. Eisenhower had far less political experience than Democrat Adlai Stevenson, yet beat him by a landslide, twice. Reagan had less political experience than Mondale, Clinton had less experience and was younger than Bush 41 while Bush 43 had less experience than either Gore or Kerry, and Obama had way less experience than McCain and is younger than Romney. Trump had no formal political experience and beat Clinton, and often compares his 45 or so months in the Oval Office to Biden’s 47 years Inside the Beltway.

 Advantage, Trump.

Enthusiasm level: Who’s excited about Joe Biden? His supporters’ excitement appears to be, he’s “not Trump.” Will this equate to black and Latino voters turning out in big numbers for Biden? I am dubious. Trump voter’s enthusiasm level is also higher than Biden’s, according to David Sirota in the left-leaning online magazine Jacobin, citing a September Fox News poll that gives the president an 11-point margin in this category. Advantage: Trump.

Vote shaming: This is the common occurrence of people feeling their support of a candidate is shamed by popular opinion, as fueled by news and social media platforms. It’s safe to say that there are a lot of people afraid to admit they plan to vote for Trump. Many of those who like Trump will let their voices be heard at the ballot box. These are the voters Richard Nixon called “the silent majority.” Advantage: Trump.

While Trump had an obvious and clear electoral college victory by midnight Eastern time – 9 p.m. my time four years ago – pundits this year are predicting there will be no clear winner before Nov. 4, and perhaps not until much later. This is where the “Two Vs,” Valencia County, New Mexico, and Vigo County, Indiana, will come in handy. As small-population rural counties, their numbers should be counted not long after the polls close on Nov. 3. Vigo County has chosen the president all but twice since 1888, and Valencia County has been perfect since 1952. Keep your eye on Valencia and Vigo. I predict they will lead the nation to four more years for Trump.

But it’s gonna be close, folks.

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