Commentary by Stephen Macaulay
It is probably a good thing that Face the Nation is on Sunday mornings.
If it were on a Friday or Saturday night some people might be inclined to participate in a drinking game: “Do a shot every time Treasury Secretary Scott Bessant says something that’s nonsense, misleading, obscuration, or otherwise not what the rest of the world understands to be reality.”
Within a matter of minutes there would be an enormous intake of alcohol.
Let’s take a look at some of Sunday, December 7.
MARGARET BRENNAN: You do think there is an affordability problem?
SEC. BESSENT: Sorry?
MARGARET BRENNAN: You do believe there's an affordability problem?
SEC. BESSENT: Oh, I think the Biden administration created a terr—
MARGARET BRENNAN: No, but now we're nearly 12 months in, you said the president would own the economy at this point.
SEC. BESSENT: I said that the Biden administration created the worst inflation in 50 years, and maybe for working Americans, the worst inflation of all time. And we have pulled that number down. . . .
According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, 12 months ago, when Joe Biden was still president, inflation was at 3%.
Where are we at now?
3%.
Sort of brings to mind George W. Bush’s line in September 2005 to then head of FEMA, Michael Brown: “doing a heck of a job, Brownie.”
To be fair to Mr. Bessent, let’s continue with that answer:
“. . . - that Strategas research does something called the common man index. Under Biden, the accumulated inflation number, as measured by CPI, was about 20%. Their index showed 35. This year for the first time, the common man index is below the inflation index because the basket of goods for working Americans, food, gasoline, rent is coming down.”
Now, have you ever heard of Strategas?
Probably not, unless you’re involved in institutional investing (a.k.a., big money).
One might think that Bessent would rely on numbers generated from the department he runs, not an investment firm. But you’ve got to find the numbers where you can find them, right?
Have you every heard of the “common man index”?
Probably not, unless you’re following Strategas.
Now while whatever Bessent was trying to say — or maybe that’s not trying to say — there’s this, from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, which calculates the Consumer Price Index:
From September 2024 to September 2025, the unadjusted price of food has gone up 3%. The price of energy is up overall 2.8%, but while gas prices are down 0.5%, that’s more than offset by the amounts paid for things like electricity, which is up 5.1% during the same period.
And rent? Well, the “Shelter” category in the CPI, which includes rent, is up 3.6%.
By this point, were the drinking game underway, there would be moderate tipsiness.
Margaret Brennan brought up the issue of farmers having economic issues, particularly those involved in harvesting soybeans.
Bessent, perhaps channeling the braggadocio of his boss, said, “I probably know more about any Treasury Secretary than- about agriculture since the 1800s and I can tell you that what farmers need is certainty, and we have put that in place with this trade deal. Twelve-and-a-half million metric tons this year, 25 million metric tons for the next three years, for soybeans, also sorghum, the- and lumber.”
The trade deal he is referring to is that with China.
It sounds as though they’re going to be buying a lot of ag products.
Which would be good for American farmers.
But it brings up the trade deal the first Trump Administration struck with China in 2020.
According to research by the Peterson Institute for International Economics (probably more well known than Strategas) published in 2022:
“In the end, China bought only 58% of the US exports it had committed to purchase under the agreement, not even enough to reach its import levels from before the trade war. Put differently, China bought none of the additional $200 billion of exports Trump's deal had promised.”
And as for that “certainty” Bessent refers to, the PIIE report goes on to note:
“After two years of escalating tariffs and rhetoric about economic decoupling, the deal did little to reduce the uncertainty discouraging the business investment needed to restart US exports.”
While much of what they’re referring to relates to manufactured products, there’s this, from a piece published last year in farmdoc daily, produced by the Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics at University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign:
“The share of US soybean exports going to China increased from below 40% in the mid-2000s to around 60% from 2011 until plummeting to just 18% during the trade war in 2018. China’s share of US soybean exports has since increased but not fully recovered to pre-trade war levels, averaging just over 50% since 2020.”
In other words, the Trump-initiated trade war with China in 2018 greatly reduced the amount of soybeans bought by China — and there has not been full recovery. So even if they follow through, seems like the farmers would be at a deficit had it not been for the Trump administration paying them $28 billion during 2018-19. (Soybean farmers got $7.3 billion of that.)
Brennan brought up the issue of affordability, which Bessant’s boss has referred to as “a con job” by the Democrats.
Bessant’s go-to response (well, you might think its Biden, but in this case it is not):
“I think the President’s frustrated by the media coverage of what’s going on.”
That’s right: Blame the media for the rise in food prices.
But Bessant wants you to know things are OK:
“I will tell you that affordability has two components, there is inflation, and then there is real incomes. Real incomes are up about 1%.”
Let’s do a little math. If inflation is up 3% and real incomes are up 1%, then there is a 2% delta between those two numbers: the increase in wages is less than the increase in costs.
Bessent:
“The American people don't know how good they have it.”
Bottoms up!