By Charles Dervarics

For people of a certain age (read: young), the allure of free college is almost irresistible. At a time when some private universities charge more than $70,000 annually and top public institutions cost $30,000 a year, the entire process may seem daunting to students and their families.

And that’s before even reading about how the “sticker price” may differ from your final cost (like a car negotiation!) or the merits of online and “hybrid” learning during a pandemic.

One thing we do know: Americans already have a lot of college debt. According to the Federal Reserve, 20% of the U.S. population owes a combined $1.5 trillion in education loans. Not surprisingly, low-income students stand the most to lose. As the U.S. Department of Education notes, a low-income student is four times less likely than a wealthier student to earn a bachelor’s degree.

While free college is not in the massive $1.9 trillion stimulus bill, the issue looms as an upcoming flashpoint for Congress and President Biden. The president has proposed tuition-free public college for families earning up to $125,000 a year. In a recent CBS interview, Biden said he could provide that benefit for $1.5 billion, though his staff quickly backtracked and pegged the cost at approximately twice that level.

Part of the challenge is that, similar to K-12 schools, colleges rely not on the federal government but on state and local funds for much of their budgets. College costs also differ greatly by state. As reported by CollegeCalc, the average public college or university in Pennsylvania charged $23,167 last year. In New Mexico, the average was just $6,807. Does higher cost bring higher quality? And knowing the federal government would soon foot the bill for many students, would states cut their own contributions as a result?

Some lawmakers also want to help recent grads who wouldn’t reap benefits from this Biden plan. Sen. Elizabeth Warren, D-MA, is proposing to forgive up to $50,000 of a student’s loans, while the White House says it’s open to forgiveness of up to $10,000. Help for graduates now navigating the job market is politically popular, with several polls showing strong public support. 

Still another alternative is free community college, so more low-income students might earn a technical credential or associate degree at lower-cost, two-year schools. Biden has talked about this, too, as has First Lady Jill Biden, a community college professor. But here recent data show the devastating impact from a year of COVID-19. Despite low tuitions, community colleges suffered a 10% enrollment decline in Fall 2020, far more than other areas of higher education. Most alarmingly, based on data from the National Student Clearinghouse, freshman enrollment at two-year colleges dropped by a whopping 21%.

When times are bad, community colleges usually do well as the unemployed return to school. But that’s not happening now, perhaps because prospective students lack child care and technology or just don’t like virtual learning.

What’s interesting here is that some states already offer free community college to many students. Tennessee, an early leader, saw an 11% enrollment drop in fall 2020 with African Americans showing notable declines. Leaders cited factors such as economic uncertainty and lack of connectivity and child care. All of which may indicate that, when it comes to education and so many other issues, free isn’t always free.