By Jessica Gottlieb

After conducting six weeks of frenetic influencer outreach on behalf of the Newsom team here in California, one thing is very clear: The GOP has a Trump problem.

As every outreach must begin and end with active listening, I spent the weeks leading up to the California recall election searching for redundancies and, oh boy, did I find them. Donald Trump and Republican candidate for part two of the ballot, Larry Elder, tried – and perhaps will continue to try – to reignite the Big Lie, sow seeds of disinformation, and generally undermine electoral norms. Will Wilkinson of the Progressive Policy Institute writes, “by accusing California Democrats of cheating anyway, Elder has given away the game.” 

There is no reason to believe disinformation won’t continue to be a GOP strategy if the party doesn’t disengage from Trump.

I was brought to the recall campaign when the vote was as predictable as a coin toss. The far right has a grassroots army of online trolls who, left unchecked, dominate online conversations. The far left is busy conducting purity tests, and the middle was frankly confused about the entire recall process. 

California, with our ballots full of propositions, has a unique political landscape. Our rare recalls make headlines because it becomes possible for an unqualified and unendorsed candidate to lead the pack. California politics looks exactly like the rest of the country in that people want to vote for leaders who will understand their unique needs. Though tech and entertainment may be in the national conversation, California is an agricultural hub with vast regions of rural land.

When I spoke with constituents on- and offline, they expressed concern for personal safety; this included access to healthcare, such as abortion, mask mandates, and a fight against vaccine disinformation. Evangelical women in Orange County told me they were proud to have spoken up about voting “no” on the recall. I had an anti-union tech entrepreneur write a screed in a private group chat about how protecting a $15 per-hour minimum wage would keep California’s economy growing. 

Larry Elder, Ron DeSantis, and Greg Abbott, all of whom emulate Trump with bombast and antipathy for both science and civility, may have been Newsom’s greatest assets. Vaccinated voters are afraid of leaving COVID-19 unchecked. They are afraid for their health and for their household finances. Catholics have heard Pope Francis state that getting the COVID-19 vaccine is an act of kindness, and they do not appreciate being told to not listen to the pope.

Women who previously were anti-abortion witness the otherworldly law coming out of Texas and have no choice but to vote for candidates who will not turn their daughters into felons should they seek an abortion. The GOP’s unchecked extremism has caught the attention of the half of the nation who would be punished first. Make no mistake, Texas’ law punishes men as well, but they will be punished only after the women.

Celebrity and pundit endorsements alone are fabulous starting points for candidates. Fundamentally, constituents win elections. However, we must not lose sight of the fact that constituents’ chatter is likely guided by their favorite star.

With everyone a click away from their favorite celebrity, harnessing an engaged and motivated fanbase of Instagrammers to re-share content was vital to our success in blocking California’s recall attempt. Sydney, with her 600 friends on Instagram, created 600 additional conversations, because she’s one of the 180 million passionate fans of Selena Gomez, but also because she’s a voter. An organic mix of aspirational and attainable messaging is why social media holds so much value. The Larry Elder campaign was far from aspirational. 

Today’s GOP is saddled with Trump’s army of science-denying conspiracy theorists. They tweet, post, and gather online with no clear leader in sight. GOP leadership has confused bots and trolls with consensus constituents. For the many Americans who lost their loved ones and livelihoods, voting for a party that wavered between disinterest and contempt for its constituents, will increasingly be a tough sell.

As California goes, so goes the nation.