By Todd Lassa (THU 3/7/24)
Policy and the political horse-race are inseparable in President Biden’s State of the Union address, where he must try to convince a sufficient number of voters the economy is good and his Republican rival does not want the “border crisis” solved, while proving he is not a “well-meaning elderly man with a poor memory.” Pundits point to Biden’s ad-lib pushback on Republicans’ position on Social Security and Medicare cuts in last year’s address as an antidote to Special Counsel Robert K. Hur’s report on Biden’s document case in which he called the president “a well-meaning elderly man with a poor memory.”
But Biden is failing, so far, at his most important task, according to columnist Perry Bacon, Jr., in Thursday’s Washington Post; eliminating, or at least reducing the possibility there will be a second Trump term to threaten American democracy. With 38% approval rating, Biden is losing to an authoritarian ex-president who now has even the endorsement of Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY).
The lone important holdout is former Trump challenger Nikki Haley, who as of this writing has not endorsed the former president. On NPR’s Morning Edition Firehouse Strategies founding partner Alex Conant, who served as communications director for Sen. Marco Rubio’s (R-FL) 2016 presidential campaign told co-host A Martinez that this November’s election will likely come down to whether Haley supporters vote for president or sit out the election or vote down-ballot only.
“Thirty to 40% of the party is still limited-government conservatives,” Conant said. Is there anything Biden can say Thursday night to those Republican voters?
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Garvey vs. Schiff in Runoff, Porter is Out
WEDNESDAY 3/6/24
Republican candidate for the late Sen. Dianne Feinstein's (D-CA) seat Steve Garvey handily took second place in California's Senate primary Tuesday. He will face Democratic Rep. Adam Schiff in the November 5 election. With 48% of the votes in, Schiff took 33.17% to Garvey's 32.45%, according to The New York Times. Rep. Katie Porter (D-CA), who was running a very close third to Garvey in the polls garnered just 13.81%, and Rep. Barbara Lee (D-CA) had just 7.36% of the vote.
The Democratic Party would have had to spend a lot of campaign money in a Schiff-Porter runoff. But Schiff instead spent a lot of money on "anti-Garvey" ads calling him "pro-Trump", during the primary race in conservative media outlets to help make sure Garvey placed second. Now Schiff can simply run those same ads in the big coastal cities plus Sacramento. Garvey, a former Los Angeles Dodger and San Diego Padre, won San Diego and Orange Counties as well as the less-populous Inland Empire Tuesday.
Meanwhile, in Minnesota: President Biden won the primary there, with "uncommitted," bolstered by protest over Israel's war on Gaza, edging out Rep. Dean Phillips, who "didn't carry his home state," for second, reports the Minneapolis Star Tribune.
Bad news for Biden is that "uncommitted" took nearly 46,000 votes when the protest vote's goal was just 5,000 votes.
Meanwhile, in Texas: Sen. Ted Cruz handily won the Republican nomination for his re-election, but he will face Democrat Colin Allred, who beat state Sen. Roland Gutierrez 59% to 17%. This is "bad news" for Cruz, Newsweek reports, as Allred already is running even with him in some Texas polls. The Texas Tribune called Super Tuesday a "bad night for GOP incumbents," with Republican U.S. Rep. Tony Gonzales, of San Antonio headed for a primary runoff with "gun rights advocate and social media influencer" Brandon Herrera and Republican state House Speaker Dade Phelan forced into a runoff against "hardline conservative" Republican challenger David Covey.
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Welcome to Super Tuesday
TUESDAY 3/5/24
January 6 Redux? – Yes, the Supreme Court’s ruling Monday to keep Donald J. Trump on Colorado’s ballot was unanimous. But conservative Justice Amy Coney Barrett joined liberals Elana Kagen, Sonya Sotomayor and Ketanji Brown Jackson in criticizing the five other conservatives for going beyond the basic decision by determining the only way to enforce Section 3 of the 14thAmendment is by a statute passed by Congress (per The Hill).
That majority ruling by Chief Justice John Roberts and justices Clarence Thomas, Samuel Alito, Neil Gorsuch and Brett Kavenaugh “prompts worries of another January 6th crisis,” screams a headline in Politico (insofar as Politico headlines can scream).
Enter Raskin: Rep. Jamie Raskin (D-MD, above) responded to the SCOTUS ruling by announcing he would revive a 2022 bill he wrote with Rep. Debbie Wasserman Schultz (D-FL) that would set up such a process. The legislation would establish a process by which the U.S. attorney general or a private citizen could petition the U.S. circuit court for the District of Columbia to remove a candidate like Donald J. Trump from the presidential ballot for participation in an insurrection, Raskin told NPR’s Steve Inskeep Tuesday on Morning Edition.
“Well, the supremacy clause of the Constitution says that the Constitution is binding on every other head of government, including the states,” Raskin told Inskeep. “To my mind, Colorado did the obvious thing. … The whole point of this provision in the Constitution was to keep people away from the oval office and other federal offices if they’ve proven themselves untrustworthy and willing to overthrow the governmental arrangements that gave them the office in the first place.”
Chances?: Not good. Raskin notes that 10 House Republicans voted for Trump’s second impeachment following January 6th and seven GOP senators voted to convict. But that was three years ago. Best Raskin and House Democrats can hope for is to provide a distraction to a wafer-thin, disorganized Republican House majority and Trump splitting time between campaigning and court appearances.
--TL
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Weekend's Over
MONDAY 3/4/24
UPDATE: You Can, Colorado -- The Supreme Court ruled 9-0 Monday to restore Donald J. Trump to the Colorado ballot, NPR reports.
Can You Vote for Trump? – Not “will you,” but can you? The Supreme Court is expected to rule on at least one case seeking to keep former President Trump off the ballot as early as 10 a.m. Monday, the Associated Press reports. SCOTUS is expected to rule on at least one case, Colorado’s, which cites the insurrection clause of the 14th Amendment for disallowing Trump because of an ongoing federal case charging him for taking part in the January 6th attack on the United States Capitol.
SCOTUS’ decision will affect similar challenges in other states, as well. Last week a Cook County judge also cited Section 3 of the 14th Amendment in ordering Trump off the Illinois ballot.
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On ‘Bloody Sunday’ – Vice President Kamala Harris called for an “immediate ceasefire” in Israel’s war on Gaza, in remarks from the Edmund Pettis Bridge on the 49th anniversary of “Bloody Sunday” in Selma, Alabama (per NPR’s Morning Edition). Harris was scheduled to meet with Israeli war cabinet minister Benny Ganz in Washington Monday, which is sure to irritate Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, whose hard line on a ceasefire with Hamas has endangered President Biden’s re-election bid.
Harris said: “What we are seeing every day in Gaza is devastating. We have seen reports of families eating leaves or animal feed, women giving birth to malnourished babies with little or no medical care, and children dying from malnutrition and dehydration. Too many innocent Palestinians have been killed.”
Too little, too late?: Whether Harris’ meeting with Ganz after those remarks in Selma can do anything for Arab American support for Biden remains to be seen.
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(Nearly) Halfway to September 30 – House and Senate leaders released a $467.5 billion package for the “easy” appropriations bills Sunday afternoon with a “slim spending boost” and elimination of most Republican-backed riders, CQ Roll Call reports. The package raises spending by 0.3%, or $1.5 billion over fiscal year 2023, with small increases for Energy-Water and Transportation-HUD, while Agriculture is flat.
The House is expected to take up a vote Wednesday afternoon, and Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) will need Democratic support to supplement Republican House members who are not MAGA.
--Compiled and edited by Todd Lassa