One week after Sen. Joe Manchin (D-WV) announced he would not run for another term next year, he indicated he may be ready to run for president as a third-party “moderate.”
“I would do anything I can to help my country, and you’re saying, ‘Does that mean that you would consider it?’” he told NBC News Meet the Press moderator Kristin Welker. “Absolutely. … Every American should consider it if they’re in a position to help save the country.”
Manchin said he would first explore whether there is an appetite for a moderate candidate like him.
Conventional Wisdom says Manchin would spoil President Biden’s re-election campaign and hand the White House keys back to Donald J. Trump. Independent candidate Ross Perot had the most success among third party candidates in recent years, capturing 18.9% of the 1992 election but zero Electoral College votes.
But with recent polls showing Trump ahead of Biden for 2024, a Manchin candidacy could conceivably capture a sufficient percentage of independent voters leaning toward Trump. With low favorability ratings for Biden, 80, and Trump, 77, Manchin, 76, might believe he has at least as much a chance as Teddy Roosevelt did in 1912, when he captured six Electoral College votes. Or, he may have an even better chance of success if Trump wins the GOP nomination next year while mired in 91 indictments among four court cases.
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Who are Biden's Potential Spoilers?
Democratic operatives seem fairly unphased by Rep. Dean Phillips’ (D-MN) challenger to President Biden for the party’s 2024 presidential nomination, though anytime someone challenges a Democratic incumbent, it seems mandatory to recall how Sen. Ted Kennedy probably “spoiled” President Jimmy Carter’s 1980 bid for re-election.
Sen. Joe Manchin (D-WV) is another story, even if he’s far from declaring. The bigger threat is the non-partisan non-profit with which he is connected, No Labels. The group says it simply wants to provide voters with a middle-of-the road alternative, but it has been threatening to float a presidential candidate’s name. It’s hard to imagine how any group self-described as “middle-of-the-road” would steal any significant number of votes from Donald J. Trump.
But wait, there’s more: Former Green Party candidate Jill Stein, known for siphoning off enough votes from Hilary Clinton in four swing states, to help Trump’s Electoral College win in 2016, is running as an independent this time. Make of that what you will.
Cornel West has been described as a narcissistic curmudgeon while being dismissed by academics as an intellectual has-been, according to New York magazine, so of course he has nothing better to do than run for president (as an independent) and take his share of votes from Biden.
Finally, self-help professional Marianne Williamson didn’t take many votes from Biden in ’20, so why should she be expected to steal many this time?
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