Iran War, Week 13

President Trump visits the Lincoln Memorial Reflecting Pool, which Virginia-based Atlantic Industrial Coatings is resurfacing after placing a no-bid contract that a National Park Service analysis obtained by The New York Times says is adding a 20% surcharge costing the federal government at least $850,000 more than the typical 6% to 12% [White House photo].

Like Rolling a Rock Up a Hill – This hardly sounds like the “largely negotiated” done deal with Iran that President Trump described four days ago, but we suppose it’s something. 

US officials are reportedly closing in on an agreement that could extend the ceasefire with Iran, lead to reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and set the table for more substantial negotiations, three American officials with knowledge of discussions tell The New York Times

So. Another ceasefire and the Strait of Hormuz free and open, kinda like 14 weeks ago.

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His Own Retribution – The Justice Department has launched an investigation into E. Jean Carroll, the former Elle advice columnist who won two civil judgments worth $88.3 million against then-former and future President Donald J. Trump over sexual abuse and defamation, CNN reports. The investigation reportedly hinges on whether Carroll committed perjury in testimony tied to her lawsuits against Trump. 

Speculation is that the investigation revolves around Carroll’s 2022 deposition, in which she said she had received no outside funding for her lawsuits, although she later revealed that billionaire Reid Hoffman had paid some legal fees and expenses.–TL

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THURSDAY 5/28/26

War On, Deal Off? – Iran targeted an unnamed US base in the Gulf Region, it says, in response to US strikes on southern Iran Thursday, The New York Times reports. This follows President Trump’s open cabinet meeting Wednesday in which he threatened to blow up Oman over Iran’s plan to toll the Strait of Hormuz in partnership with Oman. 

Esmail Baghaei, spokesman for Iran’s foreign ministry called Trump’s threats “dangerous” and “bullying,” according to The Guardian.

Washington and Tehran in recent days have suggested they were close to an agreement to resume open shipping in the Strait.

But at his cabinet meeting, Trump said this in response to a reporter’s question (per NYT): “The Strait is going to be open to everybody. Nobody’s going to control it. We’re going to watch over it. But nobody’s going to control it. That’s part of the negotiation we have.”

Clearly, Iran has learned since the war began in late February the power it has gained by controlling the Strait.

Meanwhile … The Israeli Defense Force conducted its first attack on Beirut in three weeks, after refraining from attacking Lebanon’s capital at Trump’s request, The Times of Israel reports. The IDF targeted an apartment building in the southern Choueifat area in an attempt to assassinate an Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps-connected military leader, Lebanon’s official National News Agency reported. 

While Thursday’s IDF attack on Beirut is its first in three weeks, Israel has been unrelenting in its war on southern Lebanon, where more than 1 million locals have been displaced from their homes, according to NPR’s Morning Edition.

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Gassiness – Global oil prices were on the rise Thursday after the US and Iran reported missile strikes on each other. But there’s lag at the American pump: Average national price of a gallon of unleaded regular dropped by 6.5 cents from Tuesday to $4.426, Thursday, which is $1.445 higher than February 28. Diesel was down 3 cents from Tuesday to $5.554, or $1.757 higher than the war’s start. –TL

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WEDNESDAY 5/2726

Paxton Wins Texas Primary – Is state Rep. James Talarico the real winner? 

Texas Attorney Gen. Ken Paxton walloped – that’s a Texas word, right? – four-term Sen. John Cornyn in Tuesday’s GOP primary runoff. The numbers were 64.1% for Paxton to 35.9% for Cornyn, according to The Texas Tribune.

Democrats couldn’t be more delighted, as if Texas, which is just about MAGA central might have second thoughts about forwarding to the November 3 midterms the Trump-endorsed AG who has been impeached and suspended from office by more than 70% of his own party in the Texas House, according to the Trib. Paxton faced a federal investigation into corruption allegations lodged by former top deputies, who have filed a whistleblower lawsuit alleging they were illegally fired for reporting Paxton to law enforcement. 

Oh, and there’s the lawsuit by the state bar seeking to penalize Paxton for attorney misconduct. 

Paxton was indicted on three felony counts of securities fraud, “that have loomed over nearly his entire tenure as attorney general,” the Trib reports. 

Oh, and Texas state Sen. Angela Paxton has filed for divorce, citing “biblical grounds” and accusing the US Senate nominee of adultery. 

Any wonder Paxton was endorsed by President Trump? --TL

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TUESDAY 5/2626

Where is That Deal? – A lot happened between Washington and Tehran through the Memorial Day weekend. None of it remotely resembled a peace deal.

Here’s the latest from The New York Times and The Guardian:

Iran Tuesday has threatened to retaliate against US strikes Monday that the US said are defensive, against Iran’s missile launch sites and boats attempting to lay more mines in the Strait of Hormuz (The Guardian).

The Islamic Republic accused the US of violating the ceasefire. Its Supreme Leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, said in a written statement that US military bases in the Middle East are no longer safe and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps has threatened to  respond forcefully to any US strikes (NYT).

These bellicose statements replaced negotiations after President Trump Truth Socialed Saturday that a deal with Iran was imminent, but he once again warned Iran had better reach an agreement or face annihilation. The Trump administration’s threats do not seem to scare the country that has chanted “death to America” for 47 years.

Iran did ease up slightly on repression of its own people, as President Masoud Pezeshkian ordered his country’s communications ministry to end its nearly complete internet blackout. 

Trump Truth Socialed, again on Monday afternoon that Iran’s enriched uranium will either be turned over to the US and destroyed or is to be destroyed in coordination of Iran and the Atomic Energy Commission. 

Iran officials traveled to Doha, Qatar, Monday to discuss negotiations ….  Hours before the US Military announced strikes on Iran meant to protect US troops.  

The upshot is … The Trump administration is struggling to reach the same level of compliance by Iran on its nuclear arms program that the Obama administration took two years to reach under the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu opposed and President Trump threw out in his first administration … while also working to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.

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Slight Ease of Gas Pains – National average for a gallon of regular unleaded ticked below $4.50 Tuesday to $4.491, 1.6-cents lower than Monday, but up $1.51 over February 28. Diesel slid, too, by 7.2 cents from last Thursday to $5.584 per gallon, or +$1.787 versus the start of the war on Iran.

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Russia Targets ‘Decision Centers’ – Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov warned Secretary of State Marco Rubio to evacuate the US embassy in Kyiv as Russia prepares to begin strikes on Ukraine’s “decision-making centers” (per The Kyiv Independent).

Moscow has framed the planned hit as retaliation for Ukraine’s attack on Russian-occupied Luhansk Oblast. The Kremlin claims the attack hit a dormitory in Starobilsk, though Kyiv counters that it was targeting a Russian drone command facility.

Russia staged its heaviest attack Tuesday on Ukraine since the beginning of the war, hitting every district in Kyiv. But that attack is seen as a sort of desperation as the four-year-old war hobbles Russia’s economy as Ukraine shows unexpected levels of resilience with its aggressive military drone program. – Compiled and edited by Todd Lassa