Iran War, Week 5

Oral Arguments in Trump v. Barbara – Donald J. Trump becomes the first-ever US president to attend Supreme Court chambers Wednesday as justices hear arguments about the constitutionality of his executive order banning automatic citizenship for any baby born in America of parents who entered illegally, or even have a legal, temporary or long-term visa.

WEDNESDAY, APRIL FOOLS DAY 2026

Out of Iran? – President Trump addresses the nation 9 p.m. Wednesday ET after announcing Tuesday the US would leave Iran in two or three weeks, with or without a deal. And on Wednesday morning, Trump said Iran said it wanted to reach a ceasefire ahead of his address, The Associated Press reports.

And so the US-Israeli war on Iran whiplash continues. The United Arab Emirates wants to force the Strait of Hormuz open “by any means necessary” and is willing to join the fight, according to The Wall Street Journal in an exclusive that reports the UAE has begun a campaign to persuade European and Asian allies of the US to join the effort. 

Meanwhile … A spokesman for Iran’s foreign ministry says his country believes the US “isn’t serious about diplomacy,” the WSJreports.

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Out of NATO – President Trump told The Telegraph in an interview that removing the US from the North Atlantic Treaty Organization is “beyond reconsideration” after its European member countries failed to come to the US’ aid in the war on Iran and to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.

“I was never swayed by NATO,” Trump told the UK newspaper. “I always knew they were a paper tiger, and Putin knows it too.”

Which is why Moscow will not consider any “peace plan” (remember those?) with Ukraine unless they are kept out of NATO?

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AAA National Average Unleaded Regular, Wednesday: $4.064 per gallon, up 4.6 cents from Tuesday’s price and up $1.0776 over February 27. Diesel: $5.49 per gallon, up 3.6 cents over Tuesday and $2.378 costlier than on February 27. –TL

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TUESDAY 3/31/26

Strait, No Chaser – President Trump is ready to end the US Military’s campaign on Iran even if the Strait of Hormuz remains largely closed, The Wall Street Journal reports, citing White House aides. To force the Strait open would push the US-Israeli war on Iran’s timeline beyond the four to six weeks the Trump administration had given itself to achieve its main goals of immobilizing Iran’s navy, destroying its missile stocks and winding down hostilities. 

Meanwhile … War/Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth told a joint press conference with Joint Chiefs of Staff Chairman Dan Caine Tuesday morning that the coming days of the conflict would be “decisive,” (moreWSJ) as in the past 24 hours the number of projectiles Iran launched was its lowest since the war began. 

Hegseth told reporters the administration has not ruled out boots on the ground in Iran, however (per NPR).

For the White House, the best-case scenario is Iran’s new-ish leadership rolls over and opens the Strait in time for that six-week deadline. 

Go get it, EU … Trump again Truth Socialed that it’s past time for other countries, especially the United Kingdom, to join the US-Israeli mission against Iran’s Islamic Republic: “Build up some delayed courage, go to the Strait, and just TAKE IT. You’ll have to start learning how to fight four yourself, the U.S.A. won’t be there to help you anymore, just like you weren’t there for us.”

At the risk of repeating ourselves, gas and diesel prices in the US are dependent on global oil prices, whether we buy any of the oil going through the Strait or not.

The other big concern … We know that Trump watches Wall Street most closely and recently crowed about the Dow Jones Industrial Average topping 50,000 points for the first time, just before the war on Iran began. Since then, it’s down about 5,000 points, or roughly 10%. Again from The Wall Street Journal, a highly regarded authority on this sort of thing, Wall Street is finishing its worst quarter in four years, since when the Biden administration was trying to pull the economy out of the COVID pandemic.

After high expectations at the beginning of 2026, Wall Street investors now are only hoping to “sidestep” a recession, the WSJsays.

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AAA National Average Unleaded Regular, Monday: $4.018 per gallon, up 1.18 cents from Monday’s price and up $1.0316 over February 27. Diesel: $5.454 per gallon, up 13.8 cents over Monday and $2.342 costlier than on February 27. While most the attention is on the unleaded regular gasoline price breaching $4 per gallon, its diesel fuel, which powers most the trucks that deliver food and other goods to US consumers, that has risen more steadily over the past five weeks. –TL

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MONDAY 3/30/26

It Doesn’t Rhyme – Unlike last week’s headline, “Iran War, Week Five” doesn’t rhyme, though it’s the mirror image about the shibboleth about history not repeating itself. What we are trying to say is President Trump seems to have pulled off another TACO by Truth Socialing that Tehran has made “great progress” toward talks for a ceasefire, according to The New York Times. But … Trump warned that if Tehran does fail to produce an agreement, he would order bombardment of Iranian powerplants, oil infrastructure and potentially desalination plants (which could affect tens of millions of Iranians including those he claimed to be trying to empower to take over their repressive regime). 

Meanwhile … The Israeli military said it completed a wave of strikes “a short while ago,” the NYT reports. Israel offered no additional details.

A parliamentary committee has passed a plan to toll ships sailing through the Strai of Hormuz. The measure faces vote by the full parliament before it can take effect.

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No Kings Reaches 8 Million – Organizers estimate more than 8 million people protested the Trump administration at last Saturday’s No Kings III rally, topping No Kings II’s 7 million and the first No Kings’ 5 million, USA Today reports.

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AAA National Average Unleaded Regular, Monday: $3.99 per gallon, up 2.2 cents from Friday’s price and up $1.0198 over February 27. Diesel: $5.416 per gallon, up 9.5 cents over Friday and $2.204 costlier than on February 27. –Compiled and edited by Todd Lassa